As you’ve surely seen by now, Gabriel Jesus is injured.
According to Arteta, he’s had ‘minor knee surgery’. The ‘minor’ part is supposed to sound nice, I guess… but a knee operation is a knee operation. Apparently this is also related to the knee injury which kept him out for ages last season. Eek.
Personally, this is alarming on two levels.
Firstly, I’m an Arsenal fan.
Secondly, and more importantly in this case, I’m also an FPL player. Not only that, but I’ve also been banging on about how Jesus is must-own to start the season, and probably the best-value player in the game.
Reading about the injury was a big blow, therefore.
…
But… then I got to thinking. A lot of the reasons I loved Jesus in FPL will surely carry over to the next man up, right?
That leaves us with two questions. Firstly, who is that next man up? Secondly, are they still worth having?
I’m pretty sure the answer to the first question is Eddie Nketiah. And, in turn, my answer to the question is a big, fat yes.
Will Eddie Actually Start?
If we knew Eddie was starting, ‘for a few weeks’ (Jesus’ time out, according to Arteta), this would be a slam-dunk. He’d be straight into my team and I wouldn’t need to think twice about it.
The tiny little problem here is that we can’t be sure he’ll start.
That being said, as an Arsenal fan who’s watched the majority of the games over the past couple of years – and followed all the behind-the-scenes stuff pretty obsessively – I’m confident Arteta will turn to Eddie.
There are four main reasons why.
- Most importantly, he started Eddie in exactly this situation last season. Jesus got injured in Qatar, and Nketiah came straight in for him.
- Secondly, Eddie did pretty well when he replaced Jesus last season… With caveats. See below for much more on that.
- Thirdly, he immediately started up top in the friendly against Monaco, after Jesus’ injury was announced. Not only that, but he also captained the team, and promptly scored a goal.
- Finally, there’s the loyalty factor…
Eddie re-signed with Arsenal in May 2022 when he could’ve left for free a couple of months later, and started for another Premier League team (probably Crystal Palace). Annoyingly for him, I presume, Arsenal then went and signed Jesus anyway to play up top.
Arteta surely would’ve had to placate him by saying he would start up top if anything happened to Jesus… which he did! It would be a massive slap in the face – to an Arsenal academy player, who did re-sign under those circumstances – to not start him when the starting striker spot just opened up.
The final point obviously involves the most guesswork/tea-leaf-reading by me, but I feel confident in it.
The Other Contenders
I guess most people would suggest Havertz as a Jesus replacement. But I don’t see it. One of the biggest reasons it didn’t work out at Chelsea is because they kept playing him as the 9. He’s been training and playing in pre-season as the 8, including most recently against Barcelona. I’d be shocked if Arteta suddenly changed his whole plan and put him up top now.
Trossard would make more sense, since he has a similar game to Jesus. Again though, it would just be a massive slap in the face to Eddie, to start someone who’s been there less than a year over him… in his position.
Balogun is a long-odds shout. He seems set on leaving though, and – again – from a man-management perspective, I don’t see Arteta starting someone who’s barely played for the first team, and wants to leave anyway, over someone who’s played plenty and recently committed to staying.
Nketiah’s Track Record
We know the story with Nketiah by now. He’s a very good finisher who historically didn’t contribute much (/anything) else. I do think he’s notably improved in his link-up play and pressing in the past couple of seasons, but let’s not get it twisted – this is not Gabriel Jesus. This is a poacher, a close-range finisher, a fox-in-the-box.
His goalscoring record for Arsenal looks rubbish. 14 goals in 89 appearances, for a ‘finisher’? Pah!
Obviously, these stats don’t tell the whole story. The vast majority of those appearances have been fleeting cameos off the bench.
The most important data we have is from the post-World Cup run last season. That’s more-or-less the current Nketiah, starting for more-or-less the current Arsenal team*.
(*Actually, with Havertz starting as the 8 instead of Xhaka, this season’s Arsenal is far more striker-friendly).
About Last Season…
How did Eddie do filling in for Jesus last time?
Well, he started out brilliantly! He basically became the starter on December 26th, and immediately scored in three games in a row. He got two more against Oxford in the FA Cup shortly after, then a humongous (I remember them well) two goals to beat Man U at the Emirates.
And… after that he fell off a cliff.
Eddie started the next five games, and played 90 minutes in every single one. He scored exactly 0 goals. I was watching these games (unfortunately), and he looked absolutely terrible.
So, who is the real Eddie?
In all honesty, I don’t think he’s an amazing striker. He’s shown he can get on a hot streak though, and that’s all we need him for right now!
The Value
I recently reviewed the early season fixtures for every team. Arsenal had comfortably the best mixture of matchups and talent. I judged an Arsenal triple-up to be essential… and I still think that.
As noted, Eddie isn’t the greatest player in the world… but he doesn’t need to be. He’s (I think) going to be starting up top for one of the best teams in the league.
And the fixtures are glorious!
Forest at home is a dream opening. Palace and Fulham are both fine. He just scored two goals home to Man U. Everton away isn’t great. But Arsenal always beat Spurs at home nowadays (normally scoring plenty in the process), and Bournemouth away is solid too.
All he needs to do is start out well in the first couple of games… which he should, with those fixtures. If he does, he should be locked in until Jesus comes back.
The kicker? He costs 5.5!
To summarise:
We’re getting (probably) the starting striker, for one of the best teams in the league, with great fixtures… and he costs 5.5.
Is Nketiah Now Must-Own?
In short… no. To be must-own, a player must be absolutely nailed to start, and preferably to play 80+ minutes. Neither is necessarily true for Nketiah.
That being said… the value here is just irresistible to me.
5.5? How can you say no?
If we were flooded with amazing forward options, I’d be more hesitant. But we’re not. Our forwards are rubbish, and we just lost one of the few good ones to injury.
The Jesus injury still hurts as an Arsenal fan. But as an FPL manager… we might have just been given an incredible gift.