Mohamed Salah is supposed to be a sure thing. Since he got to Liverpool in 2017, he’s scored a ludicrous 122 goals in 199 Premier League games, with 49 assists thrown in for good measure. He’s a three time Golden Boot winner, and has received two PFA Players’ Player of the Year awards.
He’s been pretty good in Fantasy Premier League too. The fewest points he’s scored in a season, per the FPL website, is 231. Outside of that, he’s scored 233, 259, 265, and in his record-breaking 2017-18 campaign – 303. He’s always the most expensive player in FPL, and he’s always either scoring the most points, or right around there.
Now, suddenly, everyone’s bailing on him.
FPL Twitter, FPL Reddit, and the community at large are rushing to bin him. At the time of writing over 290,000 users have already transferred him out, making him the second most-dumped player behind only the injured Rodrigo. His ownership is still around 50%, but dropping quickly as the vast majority of Mo owners ask themselves the same question – is it finally time to drop Salah?
FPL Analysis – Mo in 2022-23 So Far
By popular consensus, Salah has struggled in the fledgling 2022-23 season. He’s only scored two goals in six games, despite playing 90 minutes every time. He certainly doesn’t pass the eye test when you watch him, seeming to get dispossessed by left-backs worryingly easily whenever he tries to take them on.
Most crushingly of all, of course, was the Bournemouth game. For FPL owners, Mo’s team scoring nine goals while he himself blanked – in a game in which he was widely-captained – was tear-your-hair-out frustrating.
If we look beyond the popular hysteria, how has Salah actually fared so far in FPL terms?
Well, he’s the fifth-highest scoring midfielder in Fantasy Premier League, and ninth overall behind the big four forwards. It’s not where we want him to be, with an enormous 13.0 price tag – but it’s hardly disastrous.
If Mo Salah continues scoring FPL points at his current rate, the fraud will only get 240 points this season.
— Andy (@LetsTalk_FPL) September 3, 2022
What if we explore the underlying real-life numbers?
The Athletic ran a full analytical piece about Mo’s ‘stuttering start to the season’. The article is behind a paywall, but – to summarise – he’s playing wider than normal and, therefore, further from goal. The piece also rightly notes the poor form of Trent Alexander-Arnold – Salah’s partner-in-crime down the right – to kick off the campaign as detracting from Mo’s output.
As for the underlying stats themselves, they’re not super encouraging.
Mo’s xG is 3.10, so – in short – he should have at least one more goal this season. His xG/90 is down at only 0.52, however, which is comfortably the lowest xG/90 of his Liverpool career. Last season, for example, he had an xG/90 of 0.80 (actually the highest since joining Liverpool).
More worrying is that he simply isn’t being as aggressive as usual. His current shots/90 is a mere 2.83 – the fewest shots he’s taken at Liverpool by an absolute mile. Last year, it was a mighty 4.54. With the best will in the world, one of the reasons FPL managers love Salah is because he’s so selfish, but we’re not even getting that this year.
There’s no doubt Mo is still creating quality chances. His xA/90 so far is 0.33, and his Key Passes/90 is 4.0, both of which would be the highest of his whole career. But the problem – quite simply – you want Salah for his goals.
So… No Mo?
I’m not here to tell you everything is rosy and perfect with Salah right now. You only need to watch him play to see this isn’t the case, and the underlying stats aren’t pretty.
Personally, I’m holding him anyway.
He’s been the best player in Fantasy Premier League over the past five years. If you took away – let’s say – 10% of his production, which would be a pretty big drop, he’d still be amazing, and an easy season-long keeper. Nobody has more pedigree than Mo.
I don’t think Mo is suddenly crap, or in steep decline. Nor – as I’ve seen floated around in various comments sections – do I think it’s anything to do with his massive new contract. Rather, it’s far more likely to have been a perfect storm thus far.
Liverpool’s midfield has been battered by injures, which – as you’ll have seen, if you watched the Man U game – completely destroyed the team’s cohesion. Trent and Robbo are both bang out of form, which harms Liverpool’s width tremendously.
Let’s also not forget that the forward line has been completely remade over the past nine months or so. Mo was used to thriving alongside Mane and Firmino/Jota. Now he suddenly has Diaz on the opposite flank (a completely different player to Mane), and Núñez in the middle (completely different to Firmino or Jota). Firmino is still kind-of… hanging around? Playing a Number 10-ish role? But overall, the forward line is wildly different to what it was. Will it be worse long-term? Maybe, but I’m not rushing to that conclusion after six games.
Other Options
If you want to bin Mo for a couple of weeks, then get him back in on a wildcard, that makes sense. Wolves and Chelsea are both tricky fixtures (although Mo has been fixture-proof throughout his career).
If you’re just looking to move him out, however, then I don’t really know where you spend the money. Half your team is tied-up in must-have players (Haaland, Jesus, Martinelli, Trent, Joao, etc.). Most of the other options you’d really want are already cheap (Mitrovic, Toney, Rashford, etc.).
The only two premiums I’d consider as replacements for Mo are De Bruyne and Kane.
I adore Kev, City are way better than Liverpool right now, and Kev has only scored two fewer points than Mo while being 0.8 cheaper.
De Bruyne’s pass wtf pic.twitter.com/bI1OhlpA6Y
— ⚡️🇧🇼 (@Priceless_Silva) September 3, 2022
I’m not sure I want to get involved in Pep Roulette just as the Champions League is starting up again, however.
Kane is obviously great, and Spurs look fantastic. Dropping down from Mo saves you a hefty 1.6, which can then be spent on a midfielder in the 8-9.5 range (depending on your team construction obviously).
There are two problems with Kane, though.
Firstly, Toney and Mitrovic are giving the same production as Kane right now for way, way less money. Secondly, none of the midfielders in that price bracket are actually performing that well. Diaz (8.2) and Saka (7.8) have been fine, but – even with prices taken out of the equation – I’d still rather have the likes of Rashford (6.5) and Odegaard (6.5). So, you’ll be left with 1-2 million in the bank, and nothing much to spend it on.
Final Thoughts
If you want to bin Mo, I won’t call you crazy. He’s neither playing well nor delivering value right now.
Personally, I’m trusting the pedigree. I just know that – whenever he’s been in a rough patch before, and I’ve gotten rid of him – he’s bounced back, and I’ve wasted further transfers on getting him straight back in.
Long story short, Mo’s been the most reliable thing in FPL for a half-decade now, and I’m not throwing all that out after six games.