Should You Sell Semenyo?

Sell Semenyo? Already? How dare you?!

Well, stop clutching your pearls, fellow FPL nerd. The reality is that people are, indeed, questioning our early season lord and saviour, Antoine Semenyo. 

He’s one of the most-sold players in the game right now, in fact. 

Reactionary? Perhaps. 

The right call? As ever, in FPL – who knows.

Absolutely crazy? Well… not exactly, actually!

Very few players are untouchable in FPL, and Semenyo definitely isn’t on that list. Not yet. 

So, should you sell Semenyo, heading into Gameweek 12?

That’s exactly what we’re here to find out!

Join me, friend – and please resist the urge to accuse me of heresy – as we look at both the pros and cons of binning Semenyo. 

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Important Update:

Semenyo initially seemed to have suffered an injury during the international break.

Now, it appears things might not be so serious after all. 

If he’s got a serious injury, obviously he’s fine to sell. 

If he’s even a question mark, or is just going to miss a week or two, then all of the following analysis remains relevant.  

Why You Should Sell Semenyo

Obviously, Semenyo was the player of the first few weeks. 

In his supposedly difficult first fixture, away to Liverpool… he racked up 15pts.

In the first eight gameweeks, he blanked literally once (Spurs away – which I watched, and was very annoyed as a Semenyo owner, since Bournemouth absolutely dominated that game). 

Lately, however, it’s fair to say he’s gone off the boil. 

He’s now blanked three times in a row, including a home game against Forest. In Gameweek 11, he played all 90mins, and managed to rack up a grand total of… 0pts. 

His underlying stats suggest that he was unlucky in his last game against Villa, as he got 0.79xGI. 

He was definitely not unlucky in his previous two games. In those, he had dreadful xGI’s of 0.05 and 0.07 respectively, against City and Forest (!). 

He’s currently the 9th-most binned player, heading into Gameweek 12. 

5 of the players above him are flagged, so – if I’ve worked my abacus correctly – he’s the 4th-most sold player without a current injury question mark. 

Finally, what seemed like very promising upcoming fixtures suddenly don’t look so tasty. 

West Ham at home, in GW12? That would have been good, about a month ago. But they just won two games in a row, against Burnley (meh) and Newcastle (a big-time upset). 

Sunderland away, the week after? They’re – completely unironically – one of the better teams in the whole league right now, and just looked fantastic defensively against Arsenal.  

Everton at home, in GW14? Well… who the hell knows. In their last five games they’ve beaten Palace and Fulham (fine), lost to City and Spurs (fair enough), and drawn away to the impressive Sunderland. 

The point is, these are not the easy fixtures we’d have thought they were a few weeks ago. 

And, after that run, the fixtures are definitely not easy. Bournemouth have Chelsea and Man U, a better mini-run against Burnley and Brentford, then Chelsea again, Arsenal, and Spurs. 

Sure, Bournemouth are a good team themselves. But if we’re talking pros and cons of holding Semenyo right now, the fixtures are definitely on the ‘cons’ side. 

Why You Shouldn’t Sell Semenyo

The main argument against binning Semenyo is that it feels a bit early. 

Sure, he’s given us nothing in the last three games. But he gave us an absolute landslide of points across the eight games before that. 

He still plays for an excellent team. They’ve wobbled a bit recently, but losing to Villa and Man City away doesn’t suddenly make you a bad side. And if anything has fallen off, it’s their defence, more so than their attack. 

He’s clearly an excellent player, too. In FPL, even more so than in real life, since he literally just shoots all, the, time. 

Then, there’s the price and position. 

There’s very little point in spending on your midfield this year. 

Does that mean getting everyone’s favourite budget mid Caicedo, necessarily? James very much says no!* But, the costly premiums are definitely underperforming, and a ton of mids under 8.0 (and far below) have delivered excellent value. 

Even now, Semenyo is only 8.1. Let’s say he keeps on not setting the world alight, and simply settles into returning every other week or so, on average. That will still make him one of the better mids around, and he’ll remain good value. 

The chances are, however, that you got him a long time ago now, for far less than 8.1. So, though you’d obviously sell him for a big profit now… you’d also have to consider whether you’ll want him back at some point. And – since he’s Semenyo, who shoots all, the, time – he’ll almost certainly go on another hot streak, and you’ll almost certainly want him back. At that point, you can kiss all that profit you gained goodbye. 

The Final Verdict (… According to Me)

A big part of succeeding in FPL is knowing when to stick with a player, and knowing when the party’s over, and it’s time to go home. 

Leave aside your Haalands, your Salahs (normally), your Kanes of yesteryear – you can start them week in, week out, for an entire season, and not need to think about it. 

Every other player is up for sale. And Semenyo, regardless of how he started this season, still falls into that category. 

He definitely isn’t an untouchable. 

But… he’s still not even close to being binned from my team. 

Players hit ups and downs. Three games without returning, and four games without scoring, obviously isn’t ideal. But it’s not a meaningful sample size – not yet. 

He’s a quality attacking player – you only need to watch Bournemouth play to see that. And, as noted a couple of times, he shoots constantly – that’s exactly what we want, in FPL. 

Just look at his xGI split. His total xGI is 0.46… and a full 0.42 of that is xG, over xA.

A selfish player? Who cares?! Goals get us the most points, in FPL, and there are very few midfielders I’d rank as a bigger goal threat over him – Salah, Saka, and Palmer (all of whom also get pens)… and that’s about it.    

If he blanks another couple of weeks, or if Bournemouth’s wobble continues or worsens, I’ll start to think about it. 

But he’s still the highest-scoring midfielder, by a 10pt margin. He’s still good value. He’s still one of the biggest shot takers in the league. 

On top of all that… who are you selling him for? 

Look down the list of midfielders. Sort them by price, or by points. Then, tell me – even after a few blanks – who you’re taking over Semenyo right now. I still don’t think any midfielder offers a better blend of price and actual, sustainable points scoring potential. 

So, to clarify – after all that – if it wasn’t clear. 

I’m holding – and it isn’t even close.