Is Raya Actually a Good FPL Pick?

I (James) wanted to write this because I keep seeing content creators recommending buying David Raya in goal. Almost like a certain AI computer program all told them that he was the highest scoring goalkeeper for the next 10 weeks…

But I frankly think it’s ridiculous that the conversation they’re having amongst themselves is so cut and dry.

We have played this game for a long time, and the lesson that we take from that is that spending money at goalkeeper is a bad decision. In this short piece, I’m going to explain why.

The Traditional View

The traditional view of goalkeepers is quite simple. Not only is it the lowest scoring position in terms of FPL points, the difference between spending 4.5 and 5.5 tends to be in the low tens.

That’s what we know from years of FPL, and there has been no change to FPL points scoring that really changes this. The bonus points changes are not enough.

Defensive Contributions

In contrast there has been a BIG change to defenders (and midfielders).

Last year, and in all years previous, the difference between buying a goalkeeper on an elite defense, and a defender on an elite defense, was attacking returns.

Both the keeper and the defender get the same number of points for the clean sheet – the goalkeeper may even get save points, though that’s quite rare for elite defenses.

A Worked Example

But this year the difference is huge.

Let’s look at Virgil and Alisson at Liverpool, and you can see that Virgil has eight more points than Alisson already. He has four bonus and six defensive contribution points, to Alisson’s two bonus – obviously they have the same number of points from clean sheets.

That might not look like a big difference right now. But if they continue to score at the same rate, then Alisson will finish the season on 137 points and Virgil will finish the season on 198 points.

Raya actually has the same number of points right now as Virgil on 26. So, he would be projected to also finish on 198 points, based on what we have so far.

But does anyone actually think that a goalkeeper is going to get close to 200 points? No way.

So, the point isn’t really about defensive contributions.

The point is, as we highlighted at the start of the season, goalkeepers are even worse assets than they were last year.

So don’t waste money on them.

Defences Have Won The First Five Gameweeks – That Won’t Continue

I don’t think it’s escaped anyone’s attention that defenses are doing quite well at the moment.

A lot of people are talking about where the big at the back is back and there’s a lot of focus on defenders in particular.

The thing that is being consistently missed, or is sometimes talked about but then not talked about in the right context, is the fact that we’ve seen far more clean sheets in these first 5 weeks than we will over the course of the season.

The long-term data shows this to be true.

You can look at our season review from last year, and you can see that we looked at the number of clean sheets over the past 5 years.

In 2021 it was 224 clean sheets. That is the most we have seen in the last five years.

In the last two years we saw a dramatic drop off in clean sheets, partly due to the extended extra time, partly because of better penalty takers, and partly because of just better attacks.

So, there were only 157 clean sheets in the 23/24 season, and 178 clean sheets in the 24/25 season.

If the current rate of clean sheets were to continue from this season, we would have 258 clean sheets by the end of the year.

That will not happen.

The Alternatives

I think the most compelling argument for David Raya is when you look at the alternatives.

Among the 4.5s, only Roefs and Petrovic are in the top 10 for FPL points from goalkeepers at the moment.

It’s actually quite hard to find a 4.5 that is good. With Petrovic, you might want three Bournemouth assets outfield instead, and we don’t really trust Roefs.

Among the 5.0s, Pope is the number one scoring goalkeeper at the moment, not just amongst the 5.0. He plays for a great defense, in a well organised team. I don’t understand why no one’s talking about him.

Vicario is a guy I wanted to avoid massively at the start of the season, because I thought Spurs were still shit in defense. I’m willing to reconsider that right now, because I think that Thomas Frank has got them playing pretty well, and not Ange’s suicide ball.

Crystal Palace and Fulham are also good defences. So, Leno and Henderson should be considered.