The Qatar (boo!) World Cup kicks off on Sunday November 20th. Far more importantly from an FPL perspective, it begins after Gameweek 16. At the time of writing, this gives us a nice, round four weeks to go.
I see this as a distinct four-week block, since it follows the madness of Gameweek 12. The blanks for City and Arsenal forced us into tough changes, but – for now, at least – there are no more blank gameweeks coming up. We also have as good an idea as ever as to which players we can choose between, whereas we have no idea who will be injured or knackered after the World Cup.
In effect, we’re now in the run-in to finish the first half of the Fantasy Premier League season. If you’ve still got your first wildcard available, I’d highly encourage you to check out James’ full guide on how to use it*. Either way, this guide should be helpful for you.
I’m going to analyse the final four gameweeks before the World Cup for every single Premier League team. Specifically I’ll be giving you quick overviews of each team’s overall fixture difficulty, the players you should prioritise and avoid, and dropping in any other tidbits I think are interesting or useful.
Let’s go!
How This Works
‘Players to Target’ and ‘Players to Avoid’ are self-explanatory. What might cause a little more consternation, however, is my new system – JFDR.
As seasoned FPL players, you’re already well aware of Fantasy Premier League’s own Fixture Difficulty Rating. You’re probably also aware that it’s a bit of a joke, often based far more on historic production than what’s actually happened recently.
That’s where Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating comes in. To call it a ‘system’ would be exaggerating/downright lying. It is the completely biased and subjective opinion of someone who spends far too much time watching football, and consuming football-related content. Sure, it’s based on stats, but to a lesser extent it’s also based on #Vibes, and what I’ve seen with my own two eyes. Crucially, it’s also on a 1-10 scale, with FDR’s 1-5 scale being far too restrictive.
Finally, we’ll be going in table-order at the time of writing. The table will almost certainly have changed by the time you read this, but it doesn’t matter – the teams you actually care about, for FPL purposes, will still be nearer the top.
(Spoiler Alert: The likes of Notts Forest, Bournemouth, Southampton et al will not be getting much coverage in this guide).
Arsenal
I’m obviously biased, as an Arsenal fan, but come on… we’ve been great! That’s true not just in real life, but in Fantasy Premier League terms too.
A couple of years ago, the only Arsenal player you’d have even considered was Aubameyang. Now – aside from City – they’re the side with the most FPL-relevant assets by far. The biggest struggle here is settling on just three options, particularly since – because of both ownership and production – Jesus and Martinelli have been must-own.
Upcoming Fixtures
Arsenal acquitted themselves well in tougher recent games against Spurs and Liverpool. They come out of their blank gameweek with a pair of much easier fixtures.
Southampton haven’t scored more than one goal in a match in almost two months. Forest is the best fixture in the league right now, with the possible exception of Leicester. You definitely want three Arsenal players for both of these games.
After that, things get trickier. Chelsea’s defence has been incredible lately, keeping five cleans in a row in all competitions. Wolves haven’t been quite as impenetrable as usual, but you can bet your bottom dollar they’ll park the bus at Molineux. Don’t expect fireworks in these two games, but they’re still reasonable enough to hold your Arsenal players until the World Cup.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 5/10
Players to Target
Martinelli (6.7) is the definition of a must-own
Saka (7.9) has been in ridiculous form. He’s brilliantly consistent, returning in 7/11 games so far, and is the second-highest scoring FPL midfielder
Jesus (8.0) represents a fascinating dilemma. His sky-high ownership dropped due to the blank gameweek, to ‘just’ 59.8%. He’s obviously been good, but is miles behind Haaland and Kane in FPL points, and a way off Toney too.
Crucially, he’s one yellow card away from a suspension. With games against Soton and Forest coming up, you’ve got to hold Jesus if you’ve got him. If you binned him for GW12 though, or dropped your wildcard… I’d leave him out. He’ll almost certainly be suspended for one of the next four games.
So, you definitely want Martinelli and Saka. The question then becomes whether to fill your third spot with Jesus (bearing in mind his probably suspension) or an Arsenal defender/Ramsdale.
Ramsdale (4.9) is actually a ‘no’ for me. Hold him if you’ve got him, but don’t bring him in (I’ll tell you who to get instead shortly).
That leaves us with three nailed-on Arsenal defenders: Saliba (5.1), Gabriel (5.1), and White (4.5).
I’d just go for White here. Saliba and Gabriel are bigger set piece threats, but hardly goal machines. White gets all the same clean sheet points, and is much cheaper.
Players to Avoid
Ramsdale, but only because I prefer another keeper if you’re on a wildcard, or an Arsenal defender if you’re hunting for cleans.
Don’t fall for Zinchenko (5.0) if he comes back from injury. He’s great in real life, but never ever gets attacking returns.
Man City
City have done what they always do, smashing everyone in the league except Liverpool. They’ve scored a ridiculous 33 goals in 10 games, even after blanking at Anfield.
In FPL terms, we’ve actually seen a little less Pep Roulette than usual, which is nice. Big hitters like Haaland, Foden, and De Bruyne have started almost every game. Injuries at the back have forced Pep to chop and change his defenders, however.
Upcoming Fixtures
Does it really matter who they’re playing?
Not particularly, in all honesty, but even so these are some very, very juicy fixtures. Brighton don’t score any more, Leicester are bottom of the league, Fulham and Brentford are both fine… but not at the Etihad.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 1/10 (If these aren’t four wins, I’ll be absolutely shocked)
Players to Target
You’ve got Haaland already. Fun Fact: Harry Kane currently has the second-most FPL points, with 74. Haaland has 104.
I wouldn’t quite call Cancelo (7.3) must-own… but he’s close. He hasn’t been putting up points like prime Trent, but he’s miles ahead of every other FPL defender except Trippier (who you should also own by now).
As with Arsenal, the question is who you have as your third City player.
You have two options here: Foden (8.3) and De Bruyne (12.3). They’re both great, and there’s only a three point difference between them so far. I love Kev, and happily owned him right up until Gameweek 12. With a massive 4.0 price difference between them though, you have to go for Foden right now.
Players to Avoid
Anybody else from City!
As noted, you only really have one spare spot. Ownership figures for the likes of Ederson (14%), Dias (8.5%) and Bernardo (9%) are all surprisingly high, but you shouldn’t go near them. It’s Foden or De Bruyne for that (obligatory) third City spot.
Spurs
Spurs have been one of the most baffling teams in the league this season, from a real-life and FPL perspective.
If you asked me how they’d done so far, I’d say… ‘Fine. Up and down.’ Look at the table though, and they’re third in the league, level on points with Man City and only 4pts behind Arsenal (albeit having played one game more).
For the two teams above Spurs, you’re struggling to narrow down your FPL options to only three players. For Spurs themselves… I’d struggle to find three players I’m even interested in.
Upcoming Fixtures
This is an… uncomfortable run of games.
Newcastle at home feels like a tight, difficult game. Bournemouth away is fine (although they’ve looked much better since binning Scottie Three Stripes), but then Liverpool come to London straight after. Leeds looked excellent against Arsenal last weekend, so finishing up against them is hardly ideal either.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 7/10 (Two tough games, and the others are hardly walks in the park)
Players to Target
Kane (11.5) has been somewhat overshadowed by a certain enormous Norwegian, but has been incredibly productive. He’s got nine goals and two assists in 12 games so far, with only two blanks all season, and is the second-highest scoring player in FPL.
I’m getting him in, and putting him alongside Haaland. Without Trent, and with Foden instead of De Bruyne, I’ve got plenty of money to spare. I can’t remember another season where I’d have gone with two premium forwards, but it feels irresistible right now.
Dier (5.3) is the only other player I’d consider right now. He’s the fifth-highest scoring defender right now, and Bournemouth and/or Leeds could easily be cleans. He’s not particularly cheap though, and I’m not banking on him adding to his two goals so far.
Players to Avoid
Son (11.8). I analysed his play after Gameweek 3, and said he just didn’t look right. Physically he was fine, and he was still getting in good positions, but it just wasn’t working for him like it used to.
Well… nothing has changed! Take out his (incredible) hat trick off the bench against Leicester, and he has returned in just two games all season (getting one assist each time).
Kulusevski and Richarlison are both injured. In theory I’d back either of them for a punt in Gameweek 16 at home to Leeds… but we’d basically have to know that only one of them was fit, and therefore guaranteed to actually start.
Chelsea
I think Tuchel’s a good tactician, but a poor man manager. There was a stink over the whole club early on in this season, but Potter has turned things around with impressive quickness.
Chelsea are fourth in the Prem with a game in hand, at the time of writing. They’ve kept a brilliant five clean sheets in row in all competitions, with Potter sorting out a defence that always looked great on paper, and have scored enough goals to five of their last six matches.
Upcoming Fixtures
From an attacking perspective, Chelsea have a tough run of games coming up. Man U, Brighton, Arsenal, and Newcastle all have solid defences (yes, even Man U), which is another reason not to own any attacking assets (see below).
Defensively, Brighton is a nice matchup but the other three are all tricky. While I do like the Chelsea defence – as outlined below – I wouldn’t be rushing to bring any of them in before the World Cup.
Players to Target
Kepa (4.5) is the most appealing Chelsea FPL asset right now, and if you’d told me I’d write that sentence this time last year I’d have called you a crazy person. He’s back from the dead and has fully supplanted Mendy behind a great back line. You should basically never waste transfers on a goalkeeper, but he’s an easy GK pick if you’re on a wildcard.
As noted, the Chelsea defence is good. The problem is that nobody in it is nailed to start. Koulibaly (5.5) is probably the most reliable option, but even he’s been in and out.
Mount (7.7) was great last season (11G, 11A), and has looked much better under Potter. He’s never particularly excited me as an FPL asset, but he’s firmly in that discussion of mid-priced midfielders right now.
Players to Avoid
Cucurella (5.1) is a soft-avoid. He’s obviously a good player, and should start when available since he can play LCB and LWB… but Potter has rotated his back line heavily.
Chilwell (5.9) is a harder-avoid. He’s also good, but is a severe rotation-risk and always gets injured anyway.
Sterling and Aubameyang are big names with FPL pedigree, but neither has returned consistently since arriving at Chelsea.
Man U
Obviously you’re not allowed to admit it, since they’re the new Banter Era Silly Sausages Du Jour, but… Man U are looking good! They’re suddenly up to fifth in the Prem, and kept clean sheets against two good teams in Spurs and Newcastle, with the win over Conte’s side particularly impressive.
Upcoming Fixtures
Hmm…
Chelsea away is a tricky way to start this four game stretch. They’ve got every chance of getting something from the game, but it’s not one you particularly want – in FPL terms – from either an attacking or defensive perspective.
West Ham at home is fine, and Villa and Fulham are both okay too, although they’re far from pushovers.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 6/10 (Decent fixtures in real life, but not the most inspiring offensively or defensively for FPL)
Players to Target
Dalot (4.6) offers the best value for Man U right now. He’s started every game, and the upcoming fixtures are hardly terrible defensively. I like him as part of a cheap-rotation-based defence.
Apart from that, the cupboard is shockingly bare here considering the number of big names. Rashford (6.6) should be interesting, playing out of position as a striker. He doesn’t actually score any goals though, which is a bit of a drawback.
Players to Avoid
Rashford, as mentioned above. His ownership is up at 15.7%, which I guess is because he’s cheap and plays for a big team… but he doesn’t score any goals.
Elsewhere, looking down the player list, you see plenty of players who could/should be/have been exciting. Sancho, Bruno, Antony, Martial, Erisken. Through a combination of poor form, injuries, or being played out of position, however, none of them are actually appealing in FPL terms right now.
Newcastle
The unquestioned neutral’s favourite, plucky Newcastle have gotten their season going after a pretty sluggish start. They’ve won three of their last four, and have kept back to back clean sheets.
Pleasingly from an FPL perspective, Newcastle have also shown a high ceiling for attacking points, scoring four against Fulham then five against Brentford. They’re a solid, consistent all-round team which doesn’t rotate too much – just what we FPL players like.
Upcoming Fixtures
Heading into the World Cup break, Newcastle have a real fixture sandwich, with two tough slices of bread either side of a very juicy filling.
Spurs away obviously isn’t ideal, although I think these teams are actually more-or-less on a par right now. I think Chelsea are better than Spurs (currently), but it’s still a game you’d expect Newcastle to compete in, especially at home.
Villa at home is a great fixture, and one in which we could see Newcastle exploding again. Southampton aren’t bad, just boring, and having them away looks like a nice defensive opportunity.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 6/10 (Two fixtures that look hard on paper but aren’t too bad, either side of two very nice fixtures)
Players to Target
Trippier (5.7) should already be in your team.
Pope (5.3) is the second-highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL right now. I’d still bring Kepa in, if you’re on a wildcard, but if you’ve already got Pope then he’s definitely a hold.
Almiron (5.3) is becoming harder to ignore. I’m still finding it difficult to trust him, simply because we haven’t seen him do anything like this before, but he’s obviously looked great recently. I’m not buying in personally, but I understand if you’re tempted, especially at that price.
Players to Avoid
Wilson (7.3) is fine, and it looks like the striker spot is his for the foreseeable, with Isak injured until after the World Cup. His inclusion on this list isn’t any knock on him – it’s just that Mitrovic and Toney are much better options at roughly the same price.
Bruno (5.7) has gone well recently, with two goals and an assist in his past four games, plus the two cleans. I’m still not buying though, in part because he’s basically never had attacking returns before, and also because there are so many good, much more attacking midfield options available right now.
Liverpool
Are Liverpool good? Who the hell knows.
It still feels like they’re in a weird, in-between, post-Mane, ‘are they all in decline or aren’t they?’ phase. That said, they’ve won their last two games and kept clean sheets in both, and obviously have a preeetty good track record over the past few seasons.
Upcoming Fixtures
Mmm. Nottingham Forest.
Apart from Leicester, Forest are the best team to play against in the league right now. (No, I’m not changing this view just because they held offensively-challenged Brighton to a bore draw). This is a dream fixture, and – on its own – is enough to make you hold any Liverpool players you’ve got, and look to bring new ones in for a punt.
Leeds after that is also completely fine. They’re solid, competent, but assuming Liverpool beat Forest they’ll be coming into that game full of confidence. Spurs away looks scary, but probably isn’t based on how Liverpool played against City, and Spurs played against Man U. Finishing off at home against Southampton is beautiful – that’s a guaranteed win if ever I saw one.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 4/10 (Spurs isn’t as scary as it looks… and come on – it’s Forest)
Players to Target
Mo Salah (12.8) – ever heard of him? He played great against City, looking just like the old Mo and prompting yours truly to bring him in. Then of course he blanked against West Ham.
If you’re on a wildcard, like moi, you might have to take Mo out for the sake of the rest of your team. If not, you’re obviously holding. If you don’t have him, and you’re not on wildcard… he’s super-expensive, but super-tempting too. It basically depends whether or not you want two premiums up top or not.
Alexander-Arnold (7.2) has risen from his FPL grave. He got a clean sheet and everything! I’ve watched him a few times this season, and thought he looked absolutely terrible. He’s a nailed-on starter for a great run of Liverpool defensive fixtures though, and – in theory – has potential for attacking returns (?).
It sounds ridiculous for such an expensive player, I know. But if you’ve got a ton of money spare, as many FPL managers have this season, Trent can basically be a punt for the next four weeks, rather than having a more traditional budget enabler defender in that spot.
Firmino (8.1) let me down against West Ham, but he looked great against City, and had scored in the two games before that. With Diaz and Jota both injured, it seems like he’s nailed-on to start, and is a vastly more budget-friendly option than Mo for these fixtures.
Players to Avoid
Nunez (8.8). It’s just too soon. I’m fully willing to believe he’s just been settling in during his unimpressive first few months, but I have to see him have at least one or two more good games first.
Jota (8.9) is out of the World Cup through injury. Bin him quickly if you’ve got him.
Brighton
Sigh. After a rare purple patch in front of goal, Brighton are back to being their usual well-organised but completely toothless selves. I like the club as a whole in real life, but it’s very hard to get excited about them in Fantasy Premier League.
Upcoming Fixtures
Eek.
City away is the worst fixture in the league. Chelsea at home should be competitive, but not a game you’d target offensively or defensively.
The fixtures do turn after that though, defensively at least. Wolves away has 0-0 written all over it, and Villa home is a very nice way to finish up.
If you’re on a wildcard (as my colleague James has noted), you can genuinely consider getting a defender in now, sitting him for the first two games, then rotating him in for those last two. If not, you’re staying away for the next two gameweeks.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 8/10 (The first two games are nasty. After that, we’re in business)
Players to Target
Defenders Dunk (4.7) or Webster (4.5) are the only players I’d really look at right now. And, obviously, that’s only if you’re on a wildcard and can sit them for two weeks. Sanchez (4.7) could fulfil a similar role at goalkeeper.
Apart from that, bide your time until the Wolves game in Gameweek 15, then look to bring in one of the aforementioned.
Players to Avoid
Trossard (6.9) tricked myself and a host of other FPL managers with his purple patch. Then he blanked three games in a row, and now he has to be binned. It’s the same story for Gross (5.8), except it’s been even longer since he returned.
Brentford
Brentford’s results are an absolute rollercoaster. Smash Leeds 5-2 one week. Get smashed 0-3 by Arsenal the week after. 0-0 draw against Bournemouth. 1-5 smashing by Newcastle. Comfortable 2-0 win over Brighton. Hold Chelsea to a 0-0 to finish up.
They’re all over the map, making them a very fun team in the real Prem… and a very hard team to evaluate in Fantasy Premier League.
Upcoming Fixtures
If you asked me for a dream run of defensive fixtures, it would look something like this. Villa are rubbish and just binned their manager. Wolves never score. Forest are Forest. City spoil the party to finish off with, but we should already have enjoyed at least a clean sheet or two by then.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 5/10 (They’ll get pounded into the ground by City, but have a great time until then)
Players to Target
Unsurprisingly, I’m looking at the Brentford defence. Mee and Henry are both 4.5, and both play every game. Take your pick.
Zanka (4.0) could be an incredible budget pick. His start in GW 12 was his first since GW 5, however, so let’s wait and see for now.
Raya (4.5) deserves consideration for your non-Kepa keeper if you’re on a wildcard.
Toney (7.4) is great. He’s good value, fairly consistent, and – between his pens and Brentford’s counter-attacking style – fixture-proof to an extent.
Players to Avoid
Nobody, in particular. For FPL purposes, it’s defenders or Toney in this team.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are firmly entrenched in mid-table, and will 100% be there to finish off the season. I like watching them, and like the team they’ve put together, but don’t expect them to work any miracles this season. Obviously, this makes them a little uninspiring in FPL terms too.
Upcoming Fixtures
These are some pretty boring fixtures. They’re fine defensively, with Everton, Southampton, and West Ham, and obviously Forest all being weak attacking teams. Unfortunately, all of them (except Forest) are also competent at the back.
Joe’s Fixture Difficulty Rating: 6/10 (They’re not good. They’re not bad. They’re just… meh.)
Players to Target
Zaha (7.5) is obviously the first name you’d look at. He’s had a decent season so far, but nothing particularly special, currently ranking as the 10th-best midfielder in FPL. I don’t particularly fancy him, simply because he’s inconsistent (he hasn’t returned in two games in a row all season), but you’re probably holding him if you’ve got him.
Eze (5.6) is better value right now, having only scored two fewer points than Zaha all season. Again though, I don’t particularly love Palace’s fixtures from an attacking perspective.
Palace defenders are more tempting, since – as noted – Palace’s upcoming opponents can’t usually hit a barn door. Guehi (4.4) is the cheapest of them, but still plays 90 mins every week, and is therefore your easy way into the defence.
Players to Avoid
Edouard (5.3). He’s certainly decent value, as a starting forward for a solid team. The problem is – unlike years past – that forward spots are very valuable this year, and there are plenty of others I’d take over him.
Bournemouth
Nope. No need to waste any time here.
Bournemouth have absolutely nobody I’m interested in. I don’t care who they’re playing (it’s West Ham away, Spurs home, Leeds away, Everton home – for the record).
Sorry, Cherries. Nothing personal!
Fulham
This is another quick-hitter.
Pereira (4.6) is a nice enabler, and I’ll keep him as a bench player for my wildcard.
Mitrovic (6.8) is Mitrovic. He’s super-consistent, fixture-proof, and generally brilliant (see my Ode To Mitrovic here).
For FPL consideration, he’s basically in a straight shootout with Toney. I’ve got money tied up in the latter already, but would ideally prefer to have Mitro. If you’ve got him, he’s probably a season-long keeper. If you haven’t got either him or Toney yet, grab Mitro.
West Ham
The only FPL player you’re remotely interested in right now is Bowen (8.2).
Jazza, as I like to call him, was brilliant last year, with 12 goals and a monstrous 17 assists. He’s struggled to get going in 2022/23, however. He literally didn’t return once in the first eight gameweeks, and – after doing so against Wolves and Fulham – has turned in another two blanks.
The pedigree here means we need to keep an eye on him over the next few weeks. Until he’s put together a longer run though, he’s a stay-away.
Southampton
I’m not sure which team I’m less interested in for Fantasy Premier League 2022/23 – Southampton or Bournemouth.
It actually might be Southampton. Bournemouth have Solanke, who at least prompted some FPL interest (although not here). Saints have absolutely, literally, positively nobody I’m bothered about.
Everton
Snore.
Technically they’re looking somewhat more solid at the back, even if they’re not actually keeping cleans. They have decent defensive fixtures coming up too, against Palace, Fulham, Leicester, and Bournemouth. I just wouldn’t back them to actually get cleans, and – since we’re only starting three or four (at the most) defenders, there are plenty of better options out there.
Leeds United
Another team with absolutely no FPL relevance.
Man alive, I’m really whipping through these now!
Aston Villa
They finally parted ways with Sad Stevie G.
Obviously I respect his playing career, but come on – it was past time. This is a team rammed with players who should be good to watch in real life, and – far more importantly – delivering in Fantasy Premier League. Just look at these names:
- Ings
- Watkins
- Bailey
- Coutinho
- Buendia
- Ramsey
- Digne
- Cash
- Martinez
All of them have impressed in the past, and been FPL-relevant. None of them are even remotely worth considering right now.
Hopefully Villa appoint a manager who takes the handbrake off and lets these guys cook, because there’s a whole lot of FPL potential here.
Wolves
Wolves threw a ton of money at attacking players, as they often do, and – as always – are absolutely awful going forwards. They’ve scored five goals in eight games. That’s quite incredible, really, and – obviously – is the worst total in the league.
Defensively they’ve been fine, as usual, conceding just over a goal per game on average, They have nice defensive fixtures coming up too, with Leicester, Brentford, and Brighton preceding Arsenal. Jose Sa (5.1) is the highest scoring FPL goalkeeper, but is obviously pricey. I much prefer getting in cheap with Kilman (4.6), who’s played every single minute so far.
Leicester
Leicester are second-bottom at the time of writing, which is a startling fall from the heights they’d previously reached under The Brodge. This simply feels like a team far past its prime, which lost too many good players and desperately needs a reboot.
As such, I wouldn’t buy into them at all right now. Maddison (8.2) was a sexy pick, but has always been inconsistent and followed up his great game against Forest with two blanks. Speaking of inconsistent… Harvey Barnes (6.9) is back on the FPL scene! If you’ve ever owned Barnes before, you’ll know not to fall for it this time.
Notts Forest
I will, with great difficulty, resist the urge to say anything mean here. I like Steve Cooper, and do hope he turns things around.
Talk about ending with a bang!
Final Thoughts
Well, there you have it – my mega, super-long round-up of Fantasy Premier League advice ahead of the 2022 World Cup.
I hope this FPL analysis will stand up for the next few weeks. In the meantime though, you can catch all our latest Fantasy Premier League tips either on Twitter or by just bookmarking the home page.
Cheers, everybody!