My wife has left me and the dog at home alone all weekend so that means I will be watching as much football as is humanly possible. If your wife dragged you to the garden centre, I am truly sorry. Let me be your eyes and ears for the first gameweek 1 of the FPL season. Below, I will set out my FPL lessons from all the games I watched (and those I saw on Match of the Day) from gameweek 1.
I will publish this ASAP and be updating it throughout the weekend and on to Monday. Don’t forget to check back later if you read it early.
Finally, we will probably do these intense deep dives for a couple weeks of the season. When we start to learn who starts and how teams will play, these pieces lose their value (and we end up with nothing interesting to say).
Please Read: Caveat Central!
The clear caveat is that this is one weeks worth of information. I am going to do some conjecture with it. We will likely see in a couple of weeks what is the truth. I’m writing this at the top so that I don’ have to say “we will see” after every statement. No doubt I will be attacked on social media for one of these statements by someone who doesn’t read this caveat. We will see.
Don’t Make Transfers! Hold those Knees!
I’ve not seen anything that makes me think we need to rush out and buy anyone. Hold those transfers for next week and they will be waaaay more valuable because you can make a double move without taking a hit.
Is Defensive Solidity Back?
Six clean sheets from ten games Obviously its very early to call but it will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
For your information, there were 154 clean sheets last season so 4.05 per gameweek. Thats down from 200 clean sheets or 5.26 per gameweek in 22/23 and 212 clean sheets or 5.58 per gameweek in 21/22.
The prevailing analysis is that attacks in the league are much better now, injury time and penalty taker improvements caused an increase in goals and reduction in clean sheets.
There were 1246 goals this season versus 1084 and 1071 the two seasons before. The BBC did a really good write-up about this a few months ago and you can find it here. In summary, the extra stoppage time last year and penalty takers increased success rates from the spot have resulted in more goals. It’s not just because Sheff Utd suck and “excluding own goals there have been 286 different goalscorers in the league since the opening day” which is a record in a 38 game PL season – so the trend will likely continue.
I’ll be watching this carefully because the sheer drop in the number of clean sheets from the year before is intriguing and it will be interesting to see where we come out this year.
Games I Watched
Manchester United 1-0 Fulham
xG: 2.43-0.44
Goals: Zirkzee
Assists: Garnacho
This was the classic game of minnows vs. giants. At times Fulham looked like they might nick a goal or even a result. But, if you look at the underlying numbers like the xG, you can see that United were the much better team.
Man United
In terms of lessons for FPL from this gameweek 1 matchup, firstly, its shocked me but I actually thought United looked pretty good at the back too. Ignoring set pieces (which presumably De Ligt will improve them at) United were stopping chances well. So, perhaps this is not so much of a fixture we can target for goals.
Going forward United were good at creating chances but bad at converting them. They had two great chances which were both squandered and actually scored of quite a flukey goal. If you owned Garnacho consider yourself lucky that after he came off the bench and got that assist. Also, you should count yourself unlucky that he missed the best chance of the game. The annoying thing for you is that Diallo started the game and wasn’t bad. So, I don’t think we can start either with confidence. Sadly, my boy Rashford was bad so I wouldn’t start him either.
B. Fernandes is obviously still the guy. He racked up 1.19 xG all by himself and was on all the set pieces. That was with one good chance and five bad ones. The key for me when looking at him as an FPL asset was that he was being very selfish. Not something you necessarily want in a team mate but one we love in FPL because we want all the points. I’m not sure how long that will last because Bruno started as a false-nine until Zirkzee came on and took over that role. Perhaps when Bruno drops back into his normal number 10 role (where Mount spent most of the game) he will be less selfish.
Fulham
Personally I was quite disappointed with Fulham’s performance. I really expected them to actually do something against this poor defence, Muniz had two chances (if you can call them that) but he was basically not very involved. ESR had lots more of the ball but zero key passes and obviously zero chance creation of that. Currently it looks like Andreas was the best 5.5 mid to get. Despite his deep positioning, he was on all set pieces and so could offer value going forward.
The other disappointing thing was for Joe. Castagne ended up being on the bench with Tete starting at right back. Both he and Robinson looked pretty good defensively and they were clearly given license to run forward they just didn’t really deliver anything.
Ipswich 0 – 2 Liverpool
xG: 0.47-2.72
Goals: Jota, Salah
Assists: Salah, Szobo
Another game, another cliché. This was a game of two halves for Liverpool. They were pretty poor going forward in the first and then absolutely dominant in the second. That’s probably helped by the fact that Ipswich tried a little to push on and were probably just broken after 60 mins but still.
Ipswich
I’m afraid there aren’t any lessons from gameweek 1 in FPL for Ipswich. We knew they would struggle and struggle they did. If you want to be generous you can say that they were good defensively in the first half but that doesn’t mean anything. You need to defend for about a hundred minutes now.
Liverpool
Jota started as the striker and scored. He will offer incredible value if he keeps that position and stays fit. Those are big ifs. But he is already on my watchlist. Luis Diaz was out on the wing but I want Jota over him given they are the same price.
Another one on my watchlist is Szobo. I can’t spell his full name. Please forgive me Dom. We heard all pre-season how he might play 10 but rarely saw it. Well, he played 10 and did his best KDB impression. Well, I was impressed. He does this for his country so he has history of it. 0.47 xGI, 3 key passes and an assist. Snap him up in your draft leagues now.
Mo is Mo is Mo is Mo. Salah is so damn good that him being just as good as he was under a new system is what I expected. Hence, he doesn’t get much notice here. Yes, he sat a bit wider but he also cut in very often and had lots of success.
At the back, Trent looked very, very good. 0.62 xA is a lot for a defender. I was hiding behind the sofa every time he got the ball. He was playing inverted most of the time when going forward but he was so far forward there were times when Szobo was in the right-back slot. Robertson on the other side was fine. He took a fair few set pieces but wasn’t great from them. Still 0.13 xA is fine. The other news is that Quansah is not nailed. He played the first 45 but was subbed off at half time.
The other thing that jumped out at me is that there were three defensive subs. Bradley, Tsimikas and Konate all came on. Maybe its just to manage minutes of those back from the euros. But, if it becomes a longer term thing then Trent and Robbo will lose attacking output and gain from likely keeping more clean sheets. I think that really harms Trent in particular.
Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolves
xG: 1.16-0.39
Goals: Havertz, Saka
Assists: Saka, Havertz
A truly dominant performance from Arsenal. At times during the first half Wolves didn’t seem to touch the ball for five minutes.
Arsenal
Crucially for none-Mo owners, Saka matched Salah’s output. And he (and Arsenal) looked good for it. Saka put up 0.73xGI so he far outperformed this but that’s not unexpected when you only look at 90 mins. Weirdly enough, Arteta actually decided to manage his mins and took him off for Trossard with around ten mins to go. Havertz put up 0.49 xGI with 0.45 of that being xG. He started up top despite some suggestions that he wouldn’t. Odegaard was nowhere near being a pick in this game and Martinelli picked up from last year so is also not a pick. Right now, I think its only between Havertz and Saka for me.
Rice was still on most corners, although Saka seemed to take them on his side. When Rice went off with cramp and Saka was off, Tross took them.
In defence they were as solid as you would expect. It was White, Saliba, Gabriel and Zinchenko started for them. Timber came on for a few mins at the end. I remain concerned about who the left back is and who partners Saliba (who I think is nailed).
Wolves
We aren’t looking at these guys until at least gameweek 9 when their fixtures suddenly turn good. I don’t think we really learned a FPL lesson from gameweek 1 for them. Based on this performance and previous, Cunha, Hee Chan and Ait-Nouri remain the ones to watch.
West Ham 1 – 2 Aston Villa
xG: 2.40-1.89
Goals: Onana, Duran
Assists: Tielemans, Ramsey
The battle of the claret and blue. I never really doubted Villa would win today but they did make it hard for themselves.
West Ham
We all thought Lopetegui would improve this defence. In 4 mins we knew the job was far from finished. Such TERRIBLE marking from the first goal.
As expected Bowen on set pieces. I personally didn’t realise Paqueta was on pens. That doesn’t make him an option though.
Soucek was really good in that attacking midfield target man role. His xG was 1.04. Kudus was also really good. He was putting in some good passes.
Aston Villa
Tielemans to Onana was the simplest goal all weekend. And I haven’t seen half of them yet. Interesting that Tielemans is on corners but don’t expect this combo very often.
The more interesting stuff was in the front line and at the back. Starting at the front then, Watkins only lasted an hour before being subbed off. That makes sense as he didn’t play any mins in pre-season and boy did it look like that. Give him some time and I’m sure he will be a good pick.
Bailey was electric at times. He was often the main driving force of the attack and key outlet. He also took some corners. That meant he put up 0.42 xGI which is good for a 6.5.
Rogers is the other interesting one. By sheer fact that he started in an attacking position at only costs 5.0 he joins my watchlist. But, I’m not rushing out to get him. He wasn’t exactly great. His xGI (with an extra 20 mins over Bailey) was only 0.24.
At the back Maatsen is presumably not settled in enough to start but Digne was taking a few set pieces. I’d be shocked if Maatsen doesn’t start soon (because of how expensive he was) and because of how good he looked. I was also personally surprised to see Cash at right back and not Konsa. Konsa played in the middle and Diego Carlos was on the bench.
Brentford 2 – 1 Crystal Palace
xG: 1.39-1.07
Goals: Mbeumo, Pinnock (og), Wissa
Assists: Wissa, Munoz, Collins
Palace were the better team but Brentford managed to nick a result with a couple of good counter-attacks.
Brentford
The commentators were obsessed with the fact that Toney didn’t start. I don’t understand why. They’re clearly still trying to sell the guy even though nobody is going to pay the ludicrous money they want for him. That means I’m not looking at their strikers until the window closes. Fortunately, they have dreadful fixtures.
Fortunately for the Bees, they have Mbeumo to be their talisman. And he delivered in style, scoring almost immediately after Palace had a goal chalked off. He and Wissa were looking dangerous again. Although the latter’s goal was pretty lucky.
Palace
I was actually surprised to see Mateta start. He just played in the olympics and looked like he might have picked up an injury or was at least fatigued there. He didn’t come back on to the pitch after half time and was replaced by Edouard. That made sense as Mateta was largely absent from the game. If Edouard could look along a straight line he would have scored almost as soon as he came on. Sadly, he couldn’t.
I was pleased to see Munoz continuing to play that marauding role down the right wing. Mitchell was also doing the same down the left but I think after three years of data we can probably say his attacking output just isn’t that good. I’d still pick him up in a good fixture run in a draft league if Andersen or Munoz were taken. Munoz did take a corner but it was a short one and he didn’t whip the ball in but it would be good to see him take some more. He was pretty fortunate with that assist
Eze had both a goal and an assist chalked off. His free kick goal was pulled back because Hughes fouled a Brentford player (which had nothing to do with the goal). And that Edouard chance I noted before was off his pass. I say this because the stats won’t show either of these. I enjoyed watching Kamada and he looked lively but I didn’t see anything that convinced me he is a pick (yet).
Chelsea 0 – 2 Man City
xG: 1.23 – 0.82
Goals: Haaland, Kovacic
Assists: Silva
A predictably dull domination by Man City.
I was on the phone for a lot of this one so doubt I got everything.
Chelsea
I have a broad caveat at the top but I am going to add the caveat that this is one of the hardest games of the season. Don’t @ me.
Let’s start with Palmer. It wasn’t a very good game for him. He wasn’t bad but he was only fine. It’s Man City so a hard game but that’s when I would look to my top guy (Haaland, Salah, Saka, etc.) to do something and he didn’t really. He didn’t seem to have the same role as last season and was playing further out on the wing like he did for England. I’m happy not to have started the season with him. I can only assume that Enzo played 10 in an attempt to contain City but it was a stupid bloody idea.
In comparison, Nkunku ended the game with higher xGI. Fine, it was only 0.29 to Palmer’s 0.26 but Nkunku only played 58 mins. Although, I’m currently not sure how I feel about Nkunku who went off for Neto. 6.5 is a good price but I don’t want a guy that never makes it to 90 mins.
Jackson did Jackson things. Got in good positions and failed to deliver. He actually had the ball in the back of the net after a spill from Ederson but he was offside.
I was surprised by the tactical set up because I thought the wing-backs would invert but they stayed wide. That could be good for their attacking output but Cucurella already went off with cramp/injury so I doubt he starts next game and I don’t know whether Gusto keeps his spot when James is fit.
Let’s hope for more from Chelsea’s next game.
Man City
I don’t know what to say about this lot. Nothing interesting happened and I don’t know who starts in what position…
Haaland scored. He always does.
Doku and Savio were the starting wingers and Savio went off. Despite the fact that Grealish has been chilling at home over the summer Pep didn’t fancy bringing him on. Maybe that tells us something but I’m not sure. Instead, Foden came on for 45 mins but City weren’t attacking the game. De Bruyne played a full 90 which surprised me.
Leicester City 1 – 1 Spurs
xG: 1.02-1.23
Goals: Porro, Vardy
Assists: Maddison, Atawu
Spurs were so dominant and Leicester so bad in the first half that I can’t believe they came back into it. As you can see from the xG, Spurs didn’t make enough of their domination in the first half
Leicester
I can’t believe Leicester are coming out of this with a point. They looked so bad the first half. Defensively they were an absolute mess. They couldn’t even pick up the Spurs centre-backs at corners.
But wow. Jamie Vardy. He somehow finds a way. Well. He finds about 2000 million acres of space in the box because Romero isn’t paying attention.
Spurs
Starting with line-ups. A pleasant surprise Solanke started and played all the minutes. I thought he would probably get replaced by Kulusevski but Kulu replaced Maddo. That meant there was space for Johnson to start on the wing. I want to see it more but I’m starting to believe that Johnson will start most games. Solanke could have had a goal in the first half but its not like he missed a really good chance.
After being the darling of the models, Porro returned with a goal. Unfortunately, he could barely walk at the end of the game after he appeared to pick up a knock. The spurs defence was okay but one big error cost them.
Son was pretty good in terms of IRL but in FPL terms… Well… he only took one shot and it was for 0.03 xG.
Match of The Day Games
I only caught the highlights of these games.
Everton 0 – 3 Brighton
xG: 0.40-1.56
Goals: Mitoma, Welbeck, Adingra
Assists: Minteh, Weiffer, Welbeck
Brighton
- Minteh and Mitoma looked good on the wings. Minteh goes off injured for Adingra.
- Joao Pedro starts in the number 10, Welbeck up top.
- Barco didn’t start!
Everton
- No idea how McNeil didn’t score.
- Young was sent off after they conceded twice already. That’s worrying.
Nott’m Forest 1-1 Bournemouth
xG: 1.12-1.56
Goals: Wood, Semenyo
Assists: Yates
Notts Forest
- Sels is the keeper then…
- Aina and Danillo go off injured. Neco Williams the one if you want a defensive asset going forward.
- CHOI and Elanga start but neither last 90 mins.
- Awoniyi came off the bench already. Makes Wood a much worse option.
Bournemouth
- Confirmed that Semenyo joins the list of 5.5 assets that start.
Newcastle 1-0 Southampton
xG: 0.25-1.26
Goals: Joelinton
Assists: Isak
Newcastle
- Trippier doesn’t start, Livramento plays – good value if he continues to start.
- Hall starts at left-back (and plays for 70 mins) with Dan Burn in centre-back.
- Gordon does start but does nothing. Off after 70 mins.
- Schar sent off.
Southampton
- The goal makes me pleased I didn’t ever consider a Saints defender.
- Watch the highlights and you’ll think BBD got all the chances but Armstrong’s xG was 0.7. Brereton Diaz xG was 0.3.
- 84% possession (and mainly against ten men) and 1.26 xG is the best they can do.