Menu
To absolutely nobody’s delight, we’ve already hit the first international break of the season.
Which means no Fantasy Premier League.
Which means that James and I (Joe) have got too much time on our hands.
… which means it’s time to write a big old FPL article!
Come on – we can’t seriously be expected to go a full two weeks without obsessing over this stupid game.
In this piece, we’ll be reviewing the first three gameweeks of the 25/26 FPL season. What have we learned? What haven’t we learned? Which players and teams look better or worse than we suspected, so far?
The answers to all these questions, and more, lie just below.
Yes, yes, it’s only been three weeks. Insert all the boring, small sample size caveats you like here.
But! That’s not going to stand in the way of us having some fun, and trying to draw some conclusions. And, those are conclusions that we’re actually pretty confident in regardless.
Here are a few of the main things we’ve noticed, and which we’re fairly sure are legit.
James and I (Joe) have both watched a fair bit of Forest already this season. And we’ve both been impressed with what we’ve seen.
Last year, they had the 7th-worst xG in the league, which they outperformed by 5.25 goals. They also… were not great to watch.
This year, so far, they’ve bucked both trends. They’ve only got a middling 10th-place xG so far, but they’re more or less hitting that. More importantly, at this early stage, they’re passing the eye test, generally playing far better – and more attacking – football than before.
And, yes, we’re well aware they just lost 3-0 to West Ham.
But, I’d be pretty shocked if that didn’t just look like a one-off, freak result later in the season. Something along the lines of… well, Forest’s own ridiculous 7-0 win over Brighton last season, which was indicative of absolutely nothing!
For FPL purposes, we both had some concerns about regression from Wood in particular this year. We both already feel much better about this, and are considering the likes of Gibbs-White far more seriously than usual.
(James considered him so seriously he even brought him into his team… just in time for that 0-3 to West Ham!)
—
Update: Of course Forest went and fired Nuno, just before we were about to publish this piece. Thanks a lot, Forest.
The rumoured newcomer is one Ange Postecoglu. Who, you might remember, is a quite attacking manager, to put it mildly.
So, I still do stubbornly stand by what I said – Forest’s attack remains more appealing than we might have expected, coming into the season
Again, we are well aware of the 3-0. Painfully aware, since I brought in and captained Wood, James brought in MGW instead of Bruno/Mbeumo, and they both scored exactly zero.
That said, we still think West Ham are rubbish.
When your own fans are booing you, and your manager seems on the verge, after only two games… that’s probably a bad sign.
Even after that (probably freakish) win, West Ham have the 5th-worst xGA in the league. Since we already considered them to be one of the worst 4-5 teams, that’s not surprising.
For FPL purposes… this is actually great. We can target them relentlessly. Particularly because they look like one of those sides who will just collapse as soon as the tide turns against them, as we say in the first two games.
In short, I want absolutely no part of any of their players, and will continue to assume they’re one of the best attacking and defensive matchups around.
I loved Bournemouth going into the season, and feel just as good about them after the first three games.
They gave Liverpool everything they could handle in GW 1. Only winning 1-0 to a 10-man Wolves in GW 2 was disappointing, I’ll grant you. Their performance in GW 3, however, was brilliant. They were absolutely dominant, and I still can’t believe they only managed one goal.
They’re not just good going forward, either, as we’d expected they would be. They were excellent defensively against Spurs, and have an xGA of only 2.87 across three games.
The early signs are that their losses at the back haven’t actually hurt them at all. And, they look just as threatening as ever in attack.
Right now, outside of the usual suspects, I’d genuinely consider them one of the top teams in the league. I’m more than happy to have Evanilson and Semnyo already, and would probably triple-up with one of their cheap defenders if I was wildcarding now.
I know it’s very early. There are technically lots of things we don’t know. Logically, we know almost nothing yet!
But, again, that’s boring.
We did have some expectations in the preseason, and – at the very least – we can see if those are being matched yet or not. Also, while we can see some signs in various areas, there are others which… we genuinely have absolutely no idea about.
They spent a load of money, got a load of new players, and binned a load of old ones.
Did any of it actually make any difference?
Yes, they smashed Wolves in GW 1, as we all knew they would (although Wolves were getting in behind them quite a bit). They then followed that up with back-to-back losses, however.
They were comprehensively outplayed against Spurs (at home). They were on top against Brighton… until Hürzeler made four subs, turned the tables on them, and City were completely unable to respond.
I’ve watched all three City games so far. And, I’ve got to say, this doesn’t look much different to the boring, fruitless ‘domination’, grinding-out-results City from the second half of last season.
In real life, that might be fine. They probably will get back to grinding out results.
In FPL, it’s not fine. The attack looks disjointed, and he’s rotating just as we knew he would. The defence looks shaky (though we’ll see if a keeper change can help there). Haaland is returning, but his actual finishing has been pretty poor.
I’m keeping Haaland, partly because his underlying stats are still great, and he’s taking a ton of shots. I would want no part of any other City player, though, and I don’t think they’re a terrible matchup right now, particularly for your attackers.
I genuinely haven’t got a clue.
I read absolutely nothing into GW1. It was Burnley, at home – they were supposed to win easily.
In GW2, they completely outplayed Man City away. Brilliant – Frank has fixed them!
Then, in GW3, they just go and get absolutely dominated by Bournemouth. I know it was only 1-0, but I watched the whole game, and I cannot believe that was the final result. Bournemouth were better in every single area, and the final xG was 0.17 – 2.12.
The next few weeks are going to tell us a lot about this Spurs team. In order, they’ve got:
We can probably back them to beat up on the rubbish teams again. But do Brighton do what Bournemouth just did? Can they break down solid defences which will somewhat sit back, in Villa and Everton? Will their City tactics work again, in a similar matchup against Chelsea?
I’m fine holding all your Spurs FPL assets for now, since we’ve got at least three easy attacking fixtures there, plus five good defensive matchups.
Their fixtures turn big-time from around GW8-9 onwards, however. So, their performances in these next few games will determine whether we keep or bin them thereafter.
The age-old question.
The answer last season, obviously, was very much ‘yes’. So far this season, at least, it doesn’t feel so clear cut.
Salah’s two returns so far have basically both come in the last minute. I.e., he’s about two minutes away from having blanked in his first three games of the season.
I know, I know – part of Mo’s appeal is that he’s such a reliable source of returns anyway, regardless of how he’s been playing. But… that’s taking it to another level entirely!
So, we’ve got those incredibly lucky returns, and he hasn’t passed the eye test so far, and he’s outside the top 20 in shots taken.
Right now, he’s obviously not worth 14.5. He’s being comfortably outperformed by a whole slew of mids in the 6.5-7.5 price bracket.
As an owner, I’m still holding… for now.
The only thing that would tempt me to sell would be Isak starting. Then I’d be happy to go with a pricey Haaland/Isak double up top, knock Mo down to a 6.5-7.5 mid, and spend the money I saved on the defence.
If I was wildcarding, however, I’d probably lean against Salah. You can still build an excellent 4-5 man midfield without him, thanks to all those good mid-range options, and invest in an outstanding defence.
Support Independent FPL Content
Right, let’s get stuck into some stats stuff.
Here’s the xGA table so far, courtesy of FBRef:
No surprise to see Burnley and Wolves at the top. No particular surprise to see Newcastle, Arsenal, and Chelsea at the bottom either (though Newcastle and Arsenal have both had to face Liverpool already, so this reflects particularly well on them).
Obviously, it’s so early that we don’t want to draw too many conclusions yet. Everton’s xGA is slightly worrying, and points to massive overperformance so far.
Generally though, the likes of them, Villa, Fulham, and Forest doesn’t overly concern me. I’d still expect them to be in and around the better defences, when all’s said and done.
Who are we seeking to ruthlessly exploit? More or less the same sides as we thought going into the season!
Burnley will have had some backers, heading into the season, based on their defensive performance last year. That was the result of massive overperformance, however, and it looks like we’re just fine to target them mercilessly right now.
West Ham are doing surprisingly well, when it comes to xGA, especially considering their first couple of games. Let’s see if they’ve actually gotten a bit unlucky, or if this stat is smoothed out by their win over Forest.
Here’s the regular xG table, again per FBRef:
Man U! Who’d have thought!
On the one hand, they did buy two very aggressive new forwards, in Mbeumo and Cunha, so this somewhat makes sense. On the other, they did manage to significantly underperform their xG last season too, so we can’t automatically assume they’re going to rise to this xG.
At the far end of the scale, we see the three promoted teams, plus Wolves – no surprises there.
Newcastle have obviously had a messy start, with the whole not-having-a-striker thing. I’d expect them to shoot up these rankings with their two new forwards.
Villa do concern me a smidge. They’ve been absolutely awful going forward, and I’m not sure Elliott and/or Sancho are enough to turn things around.
Liverpool being so low does catch the eye, and makes me feel slightly better about Salah’s personal struggles. Between Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Arsenal, however, they’ve faced three very good defences already. Something tells me they might rise up these rankings a little, after their next game against Burnley.
More importantly for FPL purposes, perhaps, let’s take a peek at some individual player stats. Here are the highest shot-takers so far:
As a Haaland owner, I love seeing this. Three goals in three games is obviously good, but the potential is clearly there for even more explosive returns at the moment.
It’s also reassuring to see our preseason darling Semenyo so high up. His ridiculous shot volume is one of the reasons we liked him so much.
Mbeumo and Cunha being so high definitely checks out, based on the eye test, though – despite all the shots – they’ve both only got an xG of around 1.
As noted earlier, I don’t love not seeing Salah on this list. He’s only taken four shots in three games, and has a total xG of 0.3. Palmer has also only taken four shots, albeit in two games. Saka took a mere two, in his two starts. Bruno has taken six shots, but has only one on target, despite having played every minute.
Basically… the premium mids don’t exactly have me brimming with confidence, so far.
Last but not least, a special shout out to James’s beloved Ismaila Sarr. He’s taken three shots so far this season, two of which were on target, has an xG of exactly 2.0, and has scored two goals. Talk about clinical finishing.
What’s that? You want even nerdier stats?
Coming right up!
Here’s a statistical breakdown of the top scoring FPL players so far.
Positon | Number of Players with twenty points or more | Average cost of those players (1st September) | Max Cost | ||
Mean | Median | Mode | |||
Goalkeeper | 1 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Defender | 6 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 4.5, 5.6 | 4.5-5.6 |
Midfielder | 7 | 6.37 | 6.60 | N/A | 5.0-7.6 |
Forward | 3 | 10.17 | 8.70 | N/A | 7.7-14.1 |
Positon | Number of Players with fifteen points or more | Average cost of those players (1st September) | Min-Max Cost | ||
Mean | Median | Mode | |||
Goalkeeper | 7 | 5.07 | 5.00 | 5.0 | 4.5-5.5 |
Defender | 21 | 5.06 | 5.00 | 4.5, 5.0 | 4.0-6.1 |
Midfielder | 20 | 6.59 | 6.50 | 6.5 | 5.0-14.5 |
Forward | 5 | 8.98 | 7.70 | 7.7 | 6.7-14.1 |
The average cost of the high returners is quite modest. Salah and Haaland skew the data a bit (hence not just relying on mean). Ekitike is the next most expensive (8.7 – 22 points) and after him everyone is cheaper than 7.7.
The average (median) costs are almost identical in the 15+ points group to the 20+points for goalkeepers (5.00), defenders (5.05/5.00) and midfielders (6.60/6,50). This suggests there are plenty of options for us to consider, though obviously there are hundreds more defenders and midfielders in the game.
This helps show us the pool of players we should be looking at. It doesn’t help you pick the individual players. It also helps show where we should be putting our money under the new system.
Forwards are underwhelming, defenders look exciting and midfield remains a great zone for FPL points. That probably means we should limit ourselves to two attackers, and look at formations like 3-5-2, 4-4-2 or maybe even 5-3-2.
Generally speaking, Salah and Haaland are worth paying a premium for because they are so consistent. Along with just being reliable, therefore, this also tends to make them the best captaincy choices.
Even after looking at this data, and bearing the earlier stuff in mind, we’d still say a Salah/Haaland double up is the way to go.
Some people will look at these tables and come to the opposite conclusions. However, it is because everyone else is so cheap on here that we can afford both.
Support Independent FPL Content
Well, that’ll just about do it for your FPL review of the first three gameweeks. We’ve learnt some stuff about what we do know… and what we don’t… if that makes any sense at all.
We’ll be back soon enough with our regular weekly previews, so keep checking back for those, or just follow us on Reddit to get them hot off the press.
If you didn’t think this article was completely terrible, you might even consider chucking a few quid our way, via one of the Buy Me a Coffee links dotted around the site.
Either way, thanks for reading, everybody, and we hope to see you back here again soon!
The best free website for FPL tips to beat your friends and win your mini-leagues
Follow us on Twitter for our latest analysis @Full90FPL
© 2025 Full 90 FPL
