Gameweek 35 - On The Beach Theory, Double Gameweek 36 & Best Fixtures

FPL Gameweek 35 is where things start to get properly interesting again. We’ve got potential Double Gameweeks on the horizon, teams still fighting for titles, Europe, or survival, and others quietly drifting “on the beach”. Most importantly, teams are no longer on rails targeting the big bench boost, If you’re on a Wildcard, Free Hit, or just trying to squeeze out rank gains, this is the point in the season where small edges can make a big difference.

In this guide, we’ll break down the best attacking and defensive fixtures from Gameweek 35 onwards, highlight the key players, and help you decide where to take risks and where to play it safe. But first, we will recap what we know about double gameweek 36 and 37 and look at the on the beach phenomenon and see how we can use it in our FPL teams.

Will there be a Double Gameweek 36 (and 37)?

Here is what we know. Man City and Crystal Palace have a game in hand.

It is almost certain that Man City will have a double gameweek in 36.

Palace might have a double gameweek in 36 or 37. 

If they double in 37 that will be because the Bournemouth Man City game moves to 36 – which means Bournemouth will double in 36.

What Does This Mean For Your FPL Team?

Triple City is pretty much a lock in your team. Probably O’Reilly, Haaland and another.

The other options are Guehi, Cherki, Semenyo. Guehi is the most nailed but has the lowest ceiling. Cherki has the highest ceiling but is the least nailed. Semenyo probably sits somewhere in the middle of these two but has incredibly high ownership.

So, if you are consolidating, take Semenyo. If you are chasing, take a risk on Cherki or a more boring risk on Guehi.

Should We Triple Up On Palace or Bournemouth?

Not yet. Wait for more news.

Nothing is confirmed and I personally think it is unlikely Bournemouth will double at all.

If you are on wildcard probably grab a couple of both and pray to the FPL gods. Bournemouth have decent fixtures and cheap routes in with Hill and Tavernier so they are easy to hold.

Palace are a bit more messy because they are deep into European football and with little to play for in the Premier League.

Can we use “On the Beach” for FPL?

For those unfamiliar, we tend to see some teams towards the end of the season tail off a little bit because either they are safe from relegation or have achieved their goals (like European football).

So, teams “on the beach” are effectively already on holiday mentally and no longer fully competing.

I think there probably is some truth to the phenomenon. However, it’s not quite what most people think.

Rather than mid-table teams not trying because they can’t be bothered, it’s actually teams that do have something to play for really increase their output. So, in comparison, it looks like the mid-table teams aren’t trying very hard.

See Analytics FC and the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective for more info.

So, yes, we can use on the beach. However, its more like using reverse on the beach. Instead of targeting against teams “on the beach” we need to target teams with something left to play for.

Who is on the Beach?

So then, who is actually on the beach? Let’s look at the table.

Avoiding Relegation

Wolves and Burnley are statistically already relegated. Burnley look dog shit but Wolves have won two and drawn one of their last six games – so, to be clear, I don’t think we should completely trust reverse on the beach.

Nevertheless, picking players from Notts Forest, West Ham and Spurs makes sense to me as they are all trying to avoid the drop. Even, Leeds aren’t out of it yet and technically neither are Newcastle or Crystal Palace – but that relies on Spurs winning all their games to the end of the season which they probably will not do.

Chasing the European Dream

Up the top of the table, Arsenal and City are fighting it out to be champions so they have a lot to play for.

Man United, Liverpool and Villa look safe to get Champions League football – again, it’s not sewn up but they are eight points ahead of 6th place Brighton. 

If Arsenal win the Champions League, then whoever finishes 6th will go into the Champion’s League. If Arsenal do not win, then 6th will be a Europa League spot and I think 7th or 8th spot will be a conference league qualification – depending upon Arsenal.

As you can see from the below, everyone down to Sunderland then has a reasonable shot at qualifying for some form of European football next year. 

Yes, the conference league is actually bad for Premier League teams balance sheets but it is a route to Europa League and offers teams a chance at winning a trophy so it is still worth a go.

Teams in Europe

The only extra caveat to add is that Notts Forest are currently in the Europa League semi-finals. I expect they will lose to Aston Villa in that tie. Just look at the league positions to see the gulf in class and Unai Emery’s European record is amazing.

And, Palace are in the semi-finals of the conference league and I expect them to progress to the final.

Regardless, Palace will almost certainly be focused on this and less concerned with the Premier League. If Forest win another game in the PL, they are probably safe and will then focus on the Europa League (if they are still in it).

Which Teams Should We Target?

So, then we should buy players from teams with something definitely still to play for in the Premier League. Those are:

• Arsenal
• Man City
• Brighton
• Bournemouth
• Chelsea
• Brentford
• Fulham
• West Ham
• Spurs

We could also target teams that are more edge cases but could have something to play for:

• Man Utd
• Liverpool
• Aston Villa
• Everton
• Sunderland
• Leeds
• Notts Forest

And we can avoid:

• Newcastle
• Leeds
• Burnley
• Wolves

To conclude, and to be clear, this is just one factor to consider! And the lists will change in the next few weeks as more teams become safe or get further from European qualification after the next set of results.

Who Has the Best FPL Fixture Runs? – FPL Gameweek 35

Okay then, let’s look at the best attacking and best defensive fixture runs to end the season.

Best Attacking Fixtures – FPL Gameweek 35

Man City

As I mentioned earlier, it’s pretty sound to start with O’Reilly and Haaland, and one other City player. That’s partly because their fixtures are fantastic, and they’ve still got plenty to fight for. But also, in Gameweek 36, they’re likely to double up with a fixture against Crystal Palace. So with O’Reilly and Haaland locking in two spots, you’ve got one more to think about. 

As I said before, you’re basically choosing between Guehi, Cherki, or Semenyo. Guehi’s the safest pick, Cherki’s got the highest ceiling, and Semenyo sits somewhere in between but with massive ownership. If you’re consolidating, go Semenyo; if you’re chasing, take a punt on Cherki, or a more sensible punt on Guehi. 

Arsenal

If Saka is back fit, he’s definitely one to consider, especially if you’re chasing. Even I’m tempted to swap out Cole Palmer for Bukayo Saka right now. Look, his numbers this season haven’t been mind-blowing, but I still have faith that he’s one of the league’s top attacking talents. 

As for Declan Rice, I don’t hate the pick, but let’s be honest—his attacking output isn’t what it was early on. That said, he’s on a bunch of set pieces, and he’s shown he can still deliver when needed.

Liverpool

So, with Ekitike out, Alexander Isak could be a shout at Liverpool. I’m still not convinced you can trust him for a full 90, especially after he was subbed on 78 last weekend. That said, he’s a huge talent, and honestly, the fixtures aren’t bad. Man United, Chelsea, and even Brentford aren’t exactly defensive fortresses. None scream “must-have,” but I get it if you fancy a differential.

I’ve liked Wirtz at times this season, and I nearly picked him on my Free Hit—though I went Szoboszlai instead. Szoboszlai’s fine, but his ceiling feels low, and he can end up stuck at right-back, nowhere near attacking returns. Yes, set pieces, but it’s frustrating.

Finally, Gakpo’s an option. He played 90 at the weekend, seems nailed due to injuries, but let’s face it, he’s not exactly inspiring. He’s probably my least favourite of the lot.

Newcastle

At Newcastle, with Anthony Gordon out, I’m honestly struggling to care too. The strikers are all chopping minutes between them, and Harvey Barnes is as unpredictable as they come. 

And Bruno Guimarães? Yeah, I’m not a fan either. He’s fine, but it’s like hoping for lightning to strike if you want an attacking return. He’s just not that guy, and with nothing big on the line for them, I’m happy to pass entirely. Let’s put our attention elsewhere, because there’s just no spark there 

Chelsea

At Chelsea, plenty of us who wildcarded have João Pedro and Cole Palmer already, and right now, holding one or both just makes sense. 

Pedro’s ownership is still ridiculously high (43% at the time of writing) so he’s a useful shield if you’re consolidating. Honestly, though, if you went without him, I’d get it. 

Palmer’s in a similar boat. His ownership’s only 17%, but he’s been hit and miss. Sure, he’s got that 20-point haul in him, and that’s why he sticks around in my team. But I’m not thrilled, because just as easily, he can drop a two-pointer. 

Maybe with Resenior gone, Chelsea will pick it up, but I’m not holding my breath. 

Man Utd

At Man United, Bruno Fernandes is the standout. Honestly, he’s one of those “just have him” players. I should note I’m writing this pre-Gameweek 34, so any midweek surprises could change things but check back later. 

I also like Casemiro; I’ve flagged him before. His defensive contributions per 90 are fantastic, and with no European or cup clashes, he’s playing almost every week. Plus, he and Fernandes have a great link-up, with Bruno assisting six of Casemiro’s goals, often from set pieces. He’s a solid, if unglamorous, pick.

As for Mbeumo or Cunha they’re fine, but neither excites me. All season I’ve said their underlying numbers aren’t stellar. Sure, they’ve overperformed, which Joe keeps pointing out, but still they’re not must-haves. And with not much left to play for, I’d say you can skip them without losing sleep.

Leeds

At Leeds, I’m buzzing that Anton Stach is back. Honestly, he’s one of the first names I’d pop into your wildcard team. He’s dirt cheap, and those fixtures – Burnley, Spurs, Brighton, West Ham – are just juicy. The only catch is that by Gameweek 37, they might have nothing left to play for.

Then there’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Similarly, he’d walk into my wildcard if I were picking from Gameweek 35. He’s cheap, and you can bench him easily if needed. But for Gameweek 35, you’ll want him starting at home to Burnley. His underlying numbers have been pretty decent this season. He’s still underperforming his xG by a couple of goals, but not nearly as criminally as in past seasons. In short, he’s fine and a smart budget pick.

Best Defensive Fixtures

When it comes to defence, I’m just less thrilled overall compared to attack. This season’s shown us most defences really aren’t great. Arsenal are excellent, and maybe Man City are very good, but beyond that, it’s all a muchness, even big spenders like Chelsea or Man United haven’t been convincing.

So, you’re likely looking at three or four at the back rather than five. Sure, if you go five at the back, you could pick a bunch of DEFCON guys, and they don’t necessarily need perfect fixtures. But I’ll point out some DEFCON players with good fixtures as we go. In general, though, I wouldn’t expect your defence to be the highlight.

Man City

Skipping them as I have talked about them twice already above.

Arsenal

At Arsenal, it’s just smart to have David Raya and Gabriel. Both are nailed, both are top scorers in their positions right now. Gabriel’s great because he’s got clean sheets plus a genuine goal threat. Saliba’s fine, but less fun and he’s just not racking up attacking returns like Gabriel.

With Timber out, and Calafiori flagged, the rest feels murky. We don’t know who starts between Timber, Calafiori, Hincapie, or White. I don’t love splashing cash on uncertainty. If I had to pick, I’d lean Ben White who may see out the season with Timber injured. But honestly, if in doubt, stick to the sure bets in Raya and Gabriel.

Bournemouth

At Bournemouth, we’ve got a bit of fun here. Senesi at 5.2 is nailed and a DEFCON hero. That said, I actually prefer James Hill. He’s a million cheaper, and despite his own goal last weekend, he’s got similar defensive contributions. If I’m saving cash, I’d rather take that.

Now, if you’re chasing, I do like Truffert. I wouldn’t be shocked if he snags another attacking return before season’s end. If anyone’s going to get forward in that defence, it’s him. At 4.7, he’s nicely in the middle. But if you just want the cheapest reliable pick, go Hill, and you’ll be happy with that.

Leeds

At Leeds, it’s a similar story. There are some great budget defenders to round out your team. Struijk and Rodon are solid for defensive contributions, they’re the dependable types. Now, if you’re looking for a bit of attacking spice, Justin is your man. He’s the one who could pop up with something going forward. And don’t forget Bijol, he’s also a good shout on the defensive side of things. Between those four, you’ve got plenty of flexibility to plug gaps with reliable (and cheap) options. 

Chelsea

For Chelsea, I’m giving them a hard pass in the regular game. They’re pricey, and honestly, I’m just not interested. 

If you’re in a draft league, then maybe you’d look at Marc Cucurella. He’s got some attacking threat and fixtures that might offer clean sheets. Though, let’s be real, they struggle to keep a clean sheet to save their lives right now. Chalobah is another possible pick, but overall, I’m just not into Chelsea defenders. You can probably do better elsewhere. 

Newcastle

Yeah, Newcastle is the same story. They just aren’t great defensively, and they cost more than your budget gems from Bournemouth or Leeds. Schär is probably the best of the bunch at 5 million, but honestly, what are you really getting? You’d get similar or better value from Hill or Senesi at Bournemouth. The only one I might take a punt on is Lewis Hall for his attacking upside, but he’s been injury-prone. He didn’t even feature last weekend, probably another knock. So yeah, I’d skip them altogether and look elsewhere. 

Man Utd

Man United’s defenders may be cheaper than Newcastle or Chelsea, but they’re not convincing at all defensively. Maybe they’ll manage a clean sheet against Brentford at home, but I wouldn’t rely on it. If you’re looking for a pick, Maguire’s your best bet (“slabhead” can nod in a set piece) but it’s not exactly inspiring. Some might point to Heaven at 3.7 since he’s had recent minutes, but that’s only due to injuries. Realistically, you’re better off just opting for one of the Leeds defenders at 3.9 who offer reliable minutes. At this stage, you want dependable picks.

Everton

To wrap things up, Everton gives us three decent options. Pickford is always a reliable keeper, typically ending high in FPL points come season’s end. I wouldn’t want him this week against Man City, but for Gameweeks 36, 37, and 38, he becomes a great pick. If you’re chasing and not keen on someone like Raya, Pickford could be your wildcard keeper.

Then you’ve got Tarkowski and Keane. I’m less worried about them facing City, because their defensive contributions are strong. Keane, especially, is good on set pieces. With Branthwaite injured, Keane looks nailed for the season and at 4.5, he’s cheaper than Tarkowski. But if you’ve got a soft spot for Tarkowski, I get it because he is a DEFCON beast.

That’s It.

As always with FPL, there isn’t one perfect way to approach the run-in but there are definitely smarter ways to stack the odds in your favour. Target teams with something still to play for, lean into the likely Double Gameweeks, and be honest about whether you’re protecting rank or chasing upside.

Triple Manchester City feels like the foundation most teams will build around, while the likes of Arsenal assets offer reliability at bthe back. Around that, it’s about picking your spots whether that’s a high-upside punt, a safe “shield” pick, or just loading up on cheap enablers with good fixtures.

Don’t overcomplicate it, but don’t ignore the context either. Fixtures, motivation, and minutes all matter more at this stage of the season than they did back in Gameweek 5.

And most importantly, stay flexible. With Double Gameweek news still to be confirmed, the best move right now is to set yourself up to react quickly when we get more information.