We will be doing a season roundup after every 6 gameweeks. 30% of the season is now gone, so the focus of this review will be on what we know from those twelve actual gameweeks (remember we all scored 0 in gameweek 7).
I’ll then do a quick and dirty review of Gameweek, 13 before lamenting my wildcard for those sadistic enough to still be reading.
Unai Emery-n
Official, confirmed. Aston Villa have appointed Unai Emery as new head coach, as salary will be around €7m/year. 🚨🟣🔵 #AVFC
Contract completed as Aston Villa will pay full €6m release clause to Villarreal. pic.twitter.com/CSi3PgTb7Y
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 24, 2022
But, before we get into it…
At the time of writing, it’s been recently confirmed that Unai Emery is on his way to Villa after stints at VILLA-real and SeVILLA.
You may remember him as the Arsenal manager who never looked that comfortable, but he has been incredible at Villareal. Ask our Spanish resident Joe and he will wax lyrical about how well he gets the team set-up. The squad is actually all right to, so he could be making us re-consider Villa assets in the near future.
Watch this space.
Season Roundup So Far
As noted, we’re doing these FPL analysis roundups every 6 weeks. It can be easy to get lose in the week-to-week with Fantasy Premier League. These check-ins give us a chance to analyse the bigger trends, which – hopefully – we can act on going forwards.
Goalkeepers
Top 5 goalkeepers for the season so far (and some others)
| Player | Price | Points | Points in the last 6 | Notes |
| Henderson | 4.7 | 60 | 29 | |
| Alisson | 5.4 | 57 | 37 | |
| Pope | 5.3 | 56 | 20 | |
| Sá | 5.1 | 56 | 21 | |
| Raya | 4.6 | 53 | 30 | |
| The Others | ||||
| Lloris | 5.5 | 51 | 26 | |
| Ederson | 5.4 | 44 | 21 | One blank game week in last six |
| Ramsdale | 4.9 | 40 | 21 | One blank game week in last six |
| Kepa | 4.5 | 29 | 29 | Only played five games |
| Ward | 4.1 | 40 | 32 | |
Danny Ward is annoying, isn’t he? Lured us all in with his price, only to deliver 8 points in the first six weeks as we all gradually sold him off. Then he goes and scores 32 points in the next six… If I was wildcarding today, I’d probably take him (as a backup) – Joe was already smart enough to do so.
(Joe’s) Gameweek 13 wildcard locked in 👍
Feel great about the GL/DEF rotation over the next four weeks, and MIDs basically pick themselves.
No Liverpool for the Forest game makes me nervous, but I really wanted Kane, and don’t want to lock in a transfer via Nunez or Bobby. pic.twitter.com/xKBEMTmKXf
— Full 90 FPL (@full90fpl) October 22, 2022
Kepa doesn’t make the top players, but purely because he has only played five games. He is the standout pick for me here. He keeps getting save points and bonus points, and plays in a top five defence.
Henderson is also very intriguing. Forest have started playing so defensively that the rest of their team just does nothing. That means – if they do keep a clean sheet – he gets three bonus points. They’ve performed better than their xGC suggests they should have recently, but there is no doubt they are just trying to defend and not get relegated with the worst points tally ever.
Similarly, Liverpool have been so dire that Alisson got 3 bonus points twice. Of course, he got an assist in that City game too. The assist is not exactly repeatable, and I don’t think he’s worth the money given their defensive frailties.
Pope and Sa have been disappointing since their excellent starts to the season, reflecting Wolves and Newcastle’s less than stellar defensive performances.
Lloris makes an appearance here just because his points are the most consistent. 25 in the first six, 26 in the next six. Kind of interesting… if you want a boring pick.
Unless you’re on wildcard this week, my FPL advice would be not to make any moves back here. If you had a spare transfer with nothing to do I would be looking closely at Kepa, if it enables you to do another move.
Defenders
Top 5 defenders for the season so far (and some others)
| Player | Price | Points | Points in the last 6 | Notes |
| Trippier | 5.8 | 66 | 36 | |
| Cancelo | 7.3 | 65 | 32 | One blank game week in last six |
| Saliba | 5.2 | 53 | 24 | One blank game week in last six |
| Schär | 4.9 | 52 | 25 | |
| Castagne | 4.5 | 51 | 41 | |
| The Others | ||||
| White | 4.5 | 47 | 24 | One blank game week in last six |
| Dier | 5.3 | 47 | 21 | |
| Young | 4.4 | 34 | 32 | |
| Justin | 4.3 | 36 | 28 | |
| Mings | 4.3 | 32 | 26 | |
| Perisic | 5.5 | 39 | 14 | |
| Trent | 7.2 | 34 | 10 | |
Trippier and Cancelo remain the stalwarts of any good FPL defence.
Ben White and Saliba look like the next best things, in one of the most solid defences going.
Dier is delivering similar levels of consistency to Lloris – he’s another safe but boring pick.
Justin and Castagne have benefited from a strange uptick in Leicester’s ability to keep clean sheets. This has come despite Leicester conceding eight goals in the last six (matching their xGC), and being the sixth worst defence in the last six weeks according to xGC.
Young and Mings have been delivering in the third best defence – according to xGC – over the last six weeks. With a new manager that might get better, and with it specifically being Emery I’ll be watching these Villa assets very closely.
Perisic and Trent continue to show why we shouldn’t trust them.
Midfielders
The top 5 midfielders for the season (and some others)
| Player | Price | Points | Points in the last 6 | Notes |
| De Bruyne | 12.3 | 70 | 35 | One blank game week in last six |
| Almirón | 5.4 | 67 | 47 | |
| Trossard | 6.8 | 66 | 34 | |
| Foden | 8.4 | 65 | 41 | One blank game week in last six |
| Saka | 7.9 | 64 | 36 | One blank game week in last six |
| The Others | ||||
| Martinelli | 6.8 | 60 | 24 | One blank game week in last six |
| Maddison | 8.2 | 58 | 36 | |
| Salah | 12.8 | 58 | 20 | |
| Bernardo | 6.9 | 58 | 25 | One blank game week in last six |
| Xhaka | 5.1 | 55 | 29 | One blank game week in last six |
| Groß | 5.7 | 52 | 10 | |
| Iwobi | 5.5 | 51 | 36 | |
| Son | 11.7 | 51 | 34 | |
| Mount | 7.7 | 47 | 33 | |
| Bruno G | 5.7 | 39 | 32 | |
| Bowen | 8.2 | 41 | 31 | |
| Andreas | 4.6 | 50 | 27 | |
| Zaha | 7.6 | 50 | 19 | |
There’s a lot to unpack here.
Let’s start at the top. De Bruyne, Foden and Saka all appear to be excellent options. Foden has been better in the last six than before, but the other two have been pretty consistent throughout.
Almiron’s emergence has been insane. I love all the comparisons to Grealish since his drunken rant about how bad Almiron is.
Premier League goals since Jack Grealish said this:
Miguel Almiron: 6 ⚽
Jack Grealish: 1 ⚽ pic.twitter.com/lgJPVofafr— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) October 23, 2022
But it’s not just Almiron delivering for the sub 6.0s. Iwobi, Bruno G and Andreas all have huge points hauls given their price tags. I haven’t solely included Xhaka to annoy Joe either (ask me about the time we watched Arsenal in a bar in Budapest). He’s playing far more forward than in previous seasons.
All this suggests we might be able to go three-mium and have a cheaper midfielder. Particularly as Andreas is so consistent (23 points in the first six, 27 in the second six).
Of the fixture picks, it is clear that Bowen has been a better shout than Zaha. It looks almost as if Zaha is better against better teams and worse against worse – probably as a result of his reliance on counter-attacking goals. I don’t blame anyone who just gets rid of him, even with this supposedly “great” run of FPL fixtures.
Son got 19 points against Leicester for his insane hat trick, but has done almost nothing since then, so don’t fall for that trap. Trossard is probably the same given his 20 point haul against Liverpool. Gross has fallen off a cliff and should firmly be out of our thoughts. Salah has also been terrible. Even worse than in the first six weeks, actually.
Martinelli is slightly concerning, but I’m keeping the faith given his and Arsenal’s ability (plus the blank gameweek factoring into his total score).
Maddison has been pretty consistent, which means I might need to change my narrative. Mount has looked very good in general, since Potter came in.
Nobody is talking about Bernardo Silva, but he’s even cheaper than Foden and delivering consistently if not explosively. I could envision a team structure where he fits in, but it’s hard to look past the third City option in your FPL team being KDB or Foden.
Forwards
Top five forwards for the season so far (and some others)
| Player | Price | Points | Points in the last 6 | Notes |
| Haaland | 12.2 | 117 | 50 | One blank game week in last six |
| Kane | 11.5 | 82 | 42 | |
| Toney | 7.5 | 69 | 24 | |
| Mitrović | 6.8 | 60 | 21 | |
| Firmino | 8.1 | 59 | 24 | |
| The Others | ||||
| Jesus | 8.0 | 56 | 23 | One blank game week in last six |
| Solanke | 5.8 | 44 | 27 | |
| Watkins | 7.2 | 40 | 16 | |
| Scamacca | 6.8 | 28 | 24 | |
Looking at this, you can see there are only really two great options in Haaland and Kane. Obviously Haaland is a league above right now because City just look like they can bang in goals all day, every day. Kane has done brilliantly as usual though, considering how crap Spurs are. Supreme consistency from him.
Watkins only appears here because he is somehow still the 8th best forward in the game. This probably tells you something about the number of viable options here.
The rest is a pretty mixed bag. Everyone has between 21 and 27 points in the past six games, so I don’t have any genius FPL tips – it’s pretty much pick one you like and roll with it. Solanke went off injured in the last game though, so… probably don’t pick him.
What Does This Tell Us?
The big points in the last six weeks have been in the midfield, though you don’t actually need to spend huge to have got them.
Defenders and strikers are not delivering (apart from the obvious ones). There are fewer viable strikers to pick from, so it’s actually easier to make choices there.
All this still points to playing three at the back, as we said in our Fantasy Premier League advice last week. That said, you could also conceivably go without a third striker and play 3-5-2, if you want to sink money into the midfield.
Gameweek 13 Review
This’ll be some quick and dirty FPL analysis for you, as promised.
We some very strange results in FPL Gameweek 13. Everton, Villa, and Forest all won, while Wolves conceded four. That’s the Premier League for you!
| West Ham – 2 | 0 – Bournemouth |
| (I’m doing this one first, as I just watched it). Bowen joked at the end of the game that he was off pens (he actually went off before the pen was awarded, so not very clear if it was a joke…).
| Solanke off injured, as well as Neto (the goalkeeper). Without Solanke, they looked very poor in attack. |
| Aston Villa – 4 | 0 – Brentford |
| The return of the returns from Leon Bailey. He’s one to watch again, especially at only 4.6. Ings looked renewed.
| Glad I swerved this defence… I was tempted after a couple of returns, but nowhere near good enough. Though Raya was incredible again. Worryingly poor in attack, for Toney owners.
|
| Leeds – 2 | 3 – Fulham |
| They can’t buy a win at the moment. The squad is just not that good, and it’s unclear if Marsch is good either. Defence was appalling. They let Andreas run wild, left players open, etc.
| Defensively poor again. Andreas (4.6) is just running the team. Such good value. How he doesn’t score as well as assist twice is beyond me. Mitrovic (6.8) scored yet again – that’s three games in a row. He’s obviously a great option for that price.
|
| Southampton – 1 | 1 – Arsenal |
| No options from a fantasy point of view. Defence is rubbish, attack is lacklustre. | White hasn’t delivered an attacking return all year, but decided he was an overlapping wingback when I accidentally dropped him. What? I’m not bitter. Well… just a bit bitter. I normally don’t comment on the refereeing… but I think we Saka owners were very unlucky not to get a penalty. Jesus showed us why City let him go. He’s incredibly good, but he needs to finish more to make that jump to world class. Defensively they looked good, as usual.
|
| Wolves – 0 | 4 – Leicester |
| I just don’t understand how they don’t score. It’s mad. Costa had at least three good chances. Heading it straight at the keeper with a free chance to score makes me think Wolves are cursed. I know its not the Costa of old, but come on! | Tielemans goal was ludicrous, but that’s not very repeatable. Barnes makes the same move every game. He only scores it rarely, but he does it so often that he’s actually not a terrible shout. Maddison scored one inside the box for once. Great finish for his sixth goal of the season.
|
| Spurs – 1 | 2 – Newcastle |
| Another week, another Kane return. It was classic Kane, finding himself open in the box. Six goals in six for him. Son denied Kane an assist by continuing to not be himself. Defensively they looked okay, just conceding a freak goal and an excellent individual goal.
| Wilson’s goal was hilarious. Lloris ran out of his box and ran into Wilson and then fell over as Wilson put the ball in an open goal. Almiron scored his fifth goal in five appearances. He just backed himself in a tight spot and is playing with confidence I haven’t seen from him in years. I wasn’t super impressed with their attack in general, though. |
| Forest – 1 | 0 – Liverpool |
| Defensively disruptive, but did ride their luck. Just a classic shit team scoring a shit goal of a set piece. As the fan of a perennially shit team , I say fair play to ‘em. Nobody worth thinking about in FPL terms, though.
| Van Dijk could have had a hat trick. I know he’s a defender but oh, my, god. At one point he just headed it away from goal. Salah was just absent. Defensively bad again. They’re a hard avoid overall.
|
| Man City – 3 | 1 – Brighton |
| Ederson assist to Haaland is just the exact opposite of what City are normally, but it happens once a year as nobody ever expects it. De Bruyne can consider himself unlucky not to have had another assist. His goal was beautiful though. Good defensively.
| Trossard’s goal was superb, but a tad lucky. Having said that, he was their only bright spark. |
| Everton – 3 | 0 – Palace |
| Having Calvert-Lewin makes a big difference to Everton. He gives them an excellent focal point in attack. Is Iwobi good? I’m not sure. Years of FPL suggest not, but he did play well.
| Zaha looked like Salah – too wide and not focal enough in the attack. Edouard’s presence, plus a lack of returns, also makes me concerned. |
| Chelsea – 1 | 1 – Man United |
| Apart from one mistake Kepa looked very good, and they were unlucky not to keep a clean sheet, especially after the tactical change to bring on Kovacic. (Coincidentally, Cucurella was the one who made way for him). They didn’t really do much in attack, and nobody stood out. First time Chelsea have conceded in six games. Their defence is great, but they rotate a ton.
| Rashford had so many chances. If he could put one away once in a while he would be great value. Antony looks interesting – he’s selfish enough to get returns. Defensively they were really good. |
Wildcard Regrets – My Sob Story
There are few worse feelings in FPL than when you wildcard and it turns to crap immediately.
I only got returns from Haaland and Kane. Haaland’s returns basically don’t count these days, so my elation at swerving Salah swiftly turned to despair and didn’t recover all weekend. I also foolishly missed the deadline and started Guehi instead of White, which cost me another six points.
I refuse to believe my analysis is super wrong. After writing this ‘Sseason So Far’ piece, I feel even more confident of that (with the possible exception of Zaha, who is staring at the chopping block right now).
In general I do hate myself. And I hate FPL right now. Something like this happened to me three years ago and completely killed my season. I took a HUGE rank drop and just couldn’t recover.
But that was much later in the season than this time, so I feel comfortable I can bring this back from the brink. However, I am re-adjusting expectations and right now would be very happy with a finish around the top 100k mark at the end of the year. Last week I was still feeling like top 10k could happen.
Writing this piece has been somewhat cathartic, and I feel a little rejuvenated. My advice if you have screwed up this badly is to take a break (I ignored it all for almost a day, but then had a deadline for this piece – ideally you should take a longer break). Go back, analyse what went wrong, and try and figure out whether you screwed up or variance screwed you.
I feel like it’s 70:30 variance to me. The 30 is the Guehi/White mistake, and probably backing Zaha without thinking about it too much. Perhaps a sign of me putting too much trust in fixtures over form. The six City and Arsenal assets in my squad are solid picks, and I got unlucky that Foden didn’t start and the rest just purely blanked. Kane and KDB both returned, so it was much of a muchness there. Plus, a lot of others seemed to have a bad week made good by Ward, Andreas or Castagne. As for Toney vs Mitro, I can’t work out whether I made the wrong call just yet. Given Mitro’s fitness concerns and Toney’s general class, I can’t beat myself up too much there.
Well, as the freshly-fired Steven Gerrard once said, we go again. And that worked out for him, right?
