To use a cliche, the games are coming thick and fast now. The real Premier League is rushing to get games in before the World Cup starts, and Fantasy Premier League managers are rushing to keep up.
For the unaware, it’s a very quick turnaround this week. The Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 12 deadline is at 19:00 on Tuesday 18th October.
As such, this time I’m bundling together my two regular weekly columns. Let’s kick off with a roundup of the most important stuff from Gameweek 11, then look forward to a very complicated Gameweek 12.
PART I – Gameweek 11 Review
Mo’ goals, Mo problems
After a rapid fire hat trick against Rangers in the week, Mo Salah (12.7) looked like a new man against Man City. He benefitted from Firmino playing striker rather than Nunez, who takes up too much space to let Salah flourish (and doesn’t seem to pass). He bagged himself a goal and put himself on the radar for fantasy managers in need of a captaincy option for the blank gameweek.
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Harry?
Spurs had 21 attempts on goal in their last match against Everton, and Kane (11.4) was heavily involved before scoring his penalty. He has scored five goals in five games, and he’s the second highest scoring player in FPL with 72 points.
This is creating a headache for us. We only have three forward spots, and Haaland is occupying one. Toney, Jesus and Mitrovic are all competing with Kane for those other two spots (I’m still not sold on Solanke because of his low xG, but I have to admit Bournemouth look much better with O’Neill managing and Billing playing attacking midfielder).
This is a positive for the game overall. It means we can have a bit of variety in teams, which is exciting. It also means that we can rise through the ranks and beat our mini league opponents (plenty more FPL tips on that here), because there is an opportunity to pick someone different.
So… who do we pick?
I think this is one of those times when there is no right answer. Partially it will be team dependent. Partially it will also depend upon your team structure (i.e. whether you can get to Kane within one move or two).
I’m have a wildcard coming up, so I have no structural concerns to think about. Therefore, Kane is at the forefront of my thoughts.
The Hateful Eights
The midfielders seem like they’re delivering much better value now than before. All those 8.0 mids we considered at the start of the season are finally on form. Foden (8.3) continues to have good involvement and offer great value. He’s the highest scoring mid right now, and looked to have yet another goal this weekend before it was VAR’d.
Mount (7.7) did bag two goals this weekend. His first was a gift, but the thing to focus on there is that he was in that very forward position. We know he is on some set pieces too, and maybe more than usual with James out, and he can clearly put them away. He’s been in great form recently, including in the Champions League.
Saka’s (7.9) goal was ridiculous. He’s super consistent right now, and has four goals in three games after one goal in his previous 15. Arsenal are also obviously great.
Anyway… I still hate them all for mugging me off to start the season, and to a lesser extent now.
Peri-Perisic
Perisic (5.5) is great when he plays, spicy even (see what I did there?). BUT, it’s hard to know when that is. What’s more annoying is that he usually comes on for 20 mins when he doesn’t start, so you can easily end up with a one pointer. He also isn’t guaranteed to play 90 mins, and in fact has only done so twice this season.
So, that all results in him only meeting the minutes requirements for clean sheet points 50% of the time so far this season in the Premier League. And of course he’s only got clean sheet points in 30% of the games so far.
I don’t hate him, but all of this is why I avoided replacing James with him and why I’m continuing to avoid. I will consider him on wildcard next week, but only because I’m going aggressive, as there are only four weeks between my wildcard and the Christmas break.
Time to drop Haaland?
After one blank can we even trust him anymore as our permanent captain?
(Of course we can, I’m joking.)
Gameweek 11 Roundup
| Everton – 0 | 2 – Spurs |
| Everton were really bad, but I guess we shouldn’t expect anything more from them against Spurs.
Still, I know Hojbjerg isn’t exactly a world class finisher, but you can’t leave him open in the box.
| Son still nowhere near his best. Conte defence never feels bad to invest in, but the wingbacks keep changing. Kane and Perisic discussed above. |
| Fulham – 2 | 2 – Bournemouth |
| Mitro and Andreas remain the only options. Andreas proving you can certainly play him in good fixtures like this. | Still not convinced there are any options there, but Solanke has finally got my attention at least. It’s annoying he’s returned off two shots in the box with an xG of 0.4, but there you go.
|
| Wolves – 1 | 0 – Forest |
| Remain defensively solid, but not much else. Penalty saves are hard to predict, but at least we know Sa is capable. | Just avoid. Williams remains the only one you can consider solely because he’s cheap, but his minutes have been bad recently. I suspect he doesn’t play in Gamweek 12.
|
| Leicester – 0 | 0 – Palace |
| Classic Barnes performance. Through on goal a couple of times and no ability to finish. None of the strikers seem to play enough minutes to be relevant. Defence is obviously woeful. Madisson is a grade-A FPL troll for getting himself booked with five seconds to play. That means he will miss the next game, and owes FPL managers around the world an apology.
| 63 minutes before a shot on target against the second worst defence in the league. Viera must be livid. I was very disappointed with a lack of return from Zaha. Defensively they looked good, though. |
| Brentford – 2 | 0 – Brighton |
| Incredible that they kept a clean sheet. They owe a lot to Raya this weekend. Toney bagged twice – he’s been excellent. Not much else to choose from in the midfield or attack.
| Very disappointing to see Gross and Trossard off after 65 mins, like Brighton had given up. Don’t think Brighton were particularly bad defensively – it’s just that Brentford were better. |
| Liverpool – 1 | 0 – Man City |
| Liverpool’s best 90 minutes of the Premier League season. Perhaps its not a coincidence that Trent Alexander-Arnold wasn’t playing right back… No real fantasy options besides Mo right now, however. Jota is injured – sell him if you’ve got him. | They looked pretty good despite the result. Haaland had a number of chances, KDB is KDB – even if he has an off day he is worth consideration. Cancelo was playing right back again and offered attacking value. Hopefully that lasts.
|
| Leeds – 0 | 1 – Arsenal |
| Bamford looked pretty good when he came on in the second half. 2 shots on target and 3 big chances. He’s clearly a bit out of sorts from not playing consistently forever, but I remember his good days so he has my attention.
| Saka’s goal was ridiculous. 4 goals in 3 games after 1 goal in 15. Odegaard assist to boot, who Joe and I both transferred out recently – he’s trolled us ever since. Saka is firmly in my thoughts for the wildcard. |
| Manchester United – 0 | 0 – Newcastle |
| Rashford is too cheap and playing out of position, so hard for us to not think about him. The trouble is, he isn’t guaranteed to play 90 or apparently even start, as in this game.
| Trippier excellent once again. Pope very lucky to keep a clean sheet, but I’ll take it. Not because of all the chances, but also because of the disallowed Ronaldo goal and the two penalties United could have had.
|
| Aston Villa – 0 | 2 – Chelsea |
| Fair play, they played well, but I’m just not interested in anything they have until Gerrard gets fired.
| Sterling could have had a goal. Auba is yet to play enough minutes to interest me. He needs to be getting 90 mins more often, otherwise he can’t score points. The defence is good but a bit of a trap, as we don’t know who starts and Potter doesn’t seem to mind changing centre backs. It was definitely a bit weird Cucurella was playing in the middle, and he’s not worth the money whilst there. Kepa might be the answer. He’s only 4.4 so you can afford him and a playing second goalkeeper on a wildcard… He was also individually excellent, bagging two save points and two bonus points.
|
| Southampton – 1 | 1 – West Ham |
| Southampton is a dead zone in FPL. We can’t even look at their cheap defenders because they haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. Hard avoid.
| Bowen looked key to the attack, but they aren’t good enough for me to be interested right now. Don’t hate it if you pick him, though. |
PART II – THE PREVIEW
With Man City and Arsenal on the brink of a blank gameweek, we take a look at the big issues facing FPL managers this week.
Should I Free Hit?
In short, no.
Its very likely (at least 90%) that there will be a big blank gameweek later in the season, where your team is decimated. The free hit is incredibly valuable in this instance, so you should save it for that.
Ideally, you have been reading our stuff and have prepared for this moment, so you have set yourself up so that you can get 11 players out in Gameweek 12.
Of course, if you are reading our stuff you have noticed that we also haven’t prepared because we had injuries to deal with, and we just hated ourselves for still owning Trent.
What we do have in our backpockets is a wildcard. If you are like us, and plan to wildcard next week, you can get rid of your City and Arsenal assets and bring them right back in. At that point though, its important to consider value locked in your team. For example, if I sell Haaland right now, I get 11.8 and would have to pay 12.2 to get him back.
I had planned to use two free transfers this week to bring in my tenth and eleventh player for Gameweek 12, but that has gone awry. That means I am looking at hits to get 11 players out. The hits don’t feel that bad, as they are really minus 2s rather than minus 4s this week. That’s because your incoming players should score 2 points for playing 60 minutes. It’s dangerous to think this is a given though. Every year we see rotation in midweek games, so try and pick the most nailed player you can.
It will cost me 8 points to get 11 players out this gameweek, but I’m sorely tempted. I can target the best one week fixture (you guessed it, its against Forest), and get a premium player in Salah or Kane.
If you don’t have a wildcard, its really tough, but you can count yourself lucky that you are in the same position as most others. So, on that basis, don’t go crazy. You will just want Arsenal and City assets back straight this gameweek, so I would not take a minus 8 in this case. You might not even get them all back by the end of the season. Having said all that, its only four more weeks after this one to the World Cup break and a free wildcard, so… if you are feeling very risky you could roll without them.
Generally, I’m a risk-averse manager. Making the more boring decision usually works out best in FPL. So, if you can, limit yourself to only a 4 point hit, even if that only means you get 9 or 10 players out.
One Week Options for Wildcarders
This is all about targeting a favourable fixture or excellent player:
- Brighton play against Forest. So any of their starting defenders, or Trossard or Gross, are good options. Forest are the worst team in the league.
- Newcastle play Everton. You probably already have Trippier (if not, why not!?), but you could double up on their defence or maybe even get Wilson (assuming Isak is still injured).
- Palace play Wolves. Wolves have only scored 4 goals in the Prem this year, so you could happily take a Palace defender. But, Wolves defence is also incredibly good, so maybe not worth a punt on Zaha.
- Kane – I don’t care about the fixture. He can score against anyone. And, he’s a captaincy option.
- Salah – As above, hes a captaincy option and has an incredibly high ceiling. Yes, he’s only played well twice this season, but he’s also going against an injury-ravaged West Ham defence.
- Sterling and Mount. They play Brentford who are not a good defence. I don’t trust Auba to play 90 minutes.
Best Five Week Fixture Runs
There’s only five weeks left until the World Cup break and your free wildcard, so no need to look any further than this.
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Palace | WOL | eve | SOU | whu | nfo |
| Liverpool | WHU | nfo | LEE | tot | SOU |
| Everton | new | CRY | ful | LEI | bou |
| Bournemouth | SOU | whu | TOT | lee | EVE |
| Aston Villa | ful | BRE | new | MUN | bha |
Bear in mind that the fixture ticker makes a pretty important omission for the four weeks after next, because of City’s blank. So, I’m including that too:
| 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Palace | eve | SOU | whu | nfo |
| West Ham | BOU | mun | CRY | LEI |
| Everton | CRY | ful | LEI | Bou |
| Man City | BHA | lei | FUL | BRE |
| Liverpool | nfo | LEE | tot | SOU |
| Arsenal | sou | NFO | che | wol |
That’s right, we definitely want our City assets back.
I normally only do the top five teams, but Arsenal have the 6th best fixtures, so it’s worth noting we want them too…
Best FPL Gameweek 12 Captain
This is actually going to be the most fun captaincy week of the season. With Haaland not available, you can take a punt on someone like Trossard or Trippier with less of a downside if you screw it up.
On the other hand, we like to captain premium assets here. They deliver week in and week out – that’s why we captain them and that’s why they cost so much. So Salah and Kane have to be in our thoughts.
You could make a decision based on your overall rank/mini league. If you are chasing, then try the riskier option of a cheap player. Its not that far into the season though, so you can just play dull consistently and catch up as others screw up around you.
Its also worth remembering, this game is supposed to be fun. So, if in doubt and you don’t take FPL far too seriously like we do, you could just captain the cheaper player in the good fixture and see if you can spike 20 points (10×2).
Should I Sell?
I’ve covered this above, but to summarise…
You should pretty much only sell City or Arsenal assets this week, unless you have an injury.
Should I Buy?
Zaha – I still like him and his run is incredible. The only thing that makes me hesitate is just how bad he and Palace were against that terrible Leicester defence. Ward has showed you only need to hit it at him for it to go in all year, for God’s sake!
Kepa – it’s a luxury transfer, but if you have no playing keeper I kind of love it.
Chilwell – Probably not – too much uncertainty with minutes.
Castagne – No. Leicester defence is awful.
Guehi – Yes. Cheap and good fixtures. Also, I have him so inflate the price for me eh? 😊
Mount – I’m 50/50 on this. Fixtures are okay. But, Chelsea haven’t been super reliable this year in attack. I don’t love it, I don’t hate it. It’s anti-marmite.
Almiron – No. He’s not a great FPL asset.
Firmino – Interesting one. He makes the team better but isn’t selfish enough to get FPL points. Plus we don’t know if he keeps his place… so no.
Mitrovic – Sure. He’s proven himself good enough to score against anyone, he’s on pens, and all Fulham do is try to target him.
Solanke – I think there are much better options, and don’t see how you’re struggling for cash. If I’m wrong about your cash situation I guess its okay, but I wouldn’t.
My moves
In contrast to last week, where I said I would do the boring but sensible thing of holding a transfer, I’m probably taking a minus 8. As I explained above, it feels more like a minus 4. And I think it’s fun.
Kane, Salah, Wilson, Trossard, and Dunk are my current options to pick from. I already have Wolves, Palace and Newcastle defence, and I don’t want more of them (I’m doubled up on Newcastle defence already).
I’ll probably captain one of those that I bring in, but my bus team currently has Trippier captained and Toney as my vice…
In general, this is a challenging but very interesting week. Best of luck in Gameweek 12, and I’ll see you on the other side.