FPL’s Great Skill vs. Luck Debate – Who is Right and Why is it Everyone?

We often hear debates on social media as to whether Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is just a game of luck, or entirely a skill game.

Full90FPL recently got into a good-natured argument with a radio host at Absolute Radio who told the world that FPL is all luck. He posited that you could put ‘Fantasy’ in front of everything and make a game out of itm and it would be equally pointless.

His Fantasy Tea Cups game meant you got a point every time someone in your household made a cup of tea with one of your cups. We pointed out that people have favourite cups so they would be used more often than others…

You can tell him what you think here if you like: https://twitter.com/bushontheradio

Regardless, the whole thing got us thinking that we should write a piece on the nature of skill and luck in FPL. So, here goes.

In this piece we cover concepts of luck and skill in various games: a game of pure luck , a game of pure skill, and a game that combines luck and skill. We explain how luck and skill influence outcomes in each game, the interplay between them, and how these concepts can be applied to become a better Fantasy Premier League manager.

A Game of Pure Luck

The simplest and purest game of luck I can think of is flipping a coin.

Assuming the coin is well made, with no imperfections, then every time you flip it, it has a 50% chance of being heads and a 50% chance of being tails.

So, let’s say you and I are betting on the outcomes of the coin flip. I bet heads every time and you bet tails every time. After 1000 coin tosses, neither of us should have made any money.

If I start making different bets, heads sometimes and tails other times, then neither of us should have made any money after 1000 coin tosses.

That’s because its always a 50:50 chance of being heads or tails. So, there is no skill in this game. There is no way for me to gain an advantage.

A Game of Pure Skill

Okay, there is no such thing as a game of pure skill. But for the sake of argument, I am going to use chess here as an example.

Chess is primarily a game of skill, as it relies heavily on strategic thinking, tactics, planning, pattern recognition, and positional understanding. A skilled player with a deep understanding of chess principles and strategies is more likely to consistently outperform a less experienced player.

Grandmasters and strong players can consistently defeat weaker opponents because of their superior skill and understanding of the game. And they would kill me. I am bad at chess…

Contrasting to the thousand coin tosses, after 1000 games of chess against a grandmaster, I would lose EVERY SINGLE GAME.

If you don’t believe me, fine. Take a different example – put a 5 year old, average intelligence child up against a Chess Grandmaster in the two games I set out – coin flip and chess. The child should win 500 games of coin flip and would lose every time to the grandmaster at chess.

No Limit Hold ‘em – A Game of Skill and Luck

No Limit Hold ’em. If you don’t know poker, it’s the most common type of poker there is. You remember when it was late at night in the noughties and you couldn’t find anything to watch so you watched a poker tournament? Yeah. This is what they were most likely playing.

This game is often discussed in terms of the interplay between luck and skill. And here is how:

1. Initial Dealing and Community Cards (Luck): The distribution of cards to each player and the cards in the middle of the table (community cards) is entirely random, this introduces luck. Players have no control over the cards they receive. In the short term, the cards a player gets can greatly influence the outcome of a single hand or even a single session.
2. Betting, Strategy, and Decision-Making (Skill): While luck influences the initial cards dealt, skill comes into play during the decision-making process. Successful no limit hold ‘em players make strategic decisions based on their understanding of the game’s odds, probabilities, and psychology. Skilled players can analyse their own cards, the community cards, and their opponents’ behaviour to make informed choices regarding when to bet, raise, call, or fold. This involves evaluating potential outcomes, reading opponents, and bluffing effectively.
3. Long-Term Results (Skill): Over the long term, the role of luck diminishes as skill becomes a more significant factor. Skilled players consistently outperform less skilled players in no limit hold ‘em. This is evident in professional poker tournaments where top players consistently achieve strong results across multiple events, indicating that skill prevails over luck when a large number of hands are played.
4. Variance and Short-Term Outcomes (Luck): The concept of variance highlights the short-term influence of luck. Even skilled players can experience bad luck streaks due to unfavourable card distributions or unfortunate turn of events. In these cases, luck can lead to temporary setbacks, and skill is needed to manage emotions and make optimal decisions despite the outcome.

So, as you can see, no limit hold ‘em is a game that involves both luck and skill. Luck plays a role in the initial card distribution and short-term outcomes, while skill is crucial in making strategic decisions based on odds, psychology, and game dynamics. Over the long term, skill prevails, and players with a deeper understanding of the game consistently achieve better results.

FPL is a Game of Both Skill and Luck

Yeah, you saw where I was going with this, didn’t you?

Similarly to no limit hold ‘em, FPL is a game that involves a combination of both skill and luck. We could easily apply points 3 and 4 in the no limit hold ‘em game to FPL:

1. Long-Term Results (Skill): Over the long term, the role of luck diminishes as skill becomes a more significant factor. Skilled players consistently outperform less skilled players in FPL. This is evident in season-long overall rankings, where top players consistently achieve strong results across multiple years, indicating that skill prevails over luck when a large number of gameweeks are played.
2. Variance and Short-Term Outcomes (Luck): The concept of variance highlights the short-term influence of luck. Even skilled players can experience bad luck streaks due to unfavourable points distributions or unfortunate turn of events. In these cases, luck can lead to temporary setbacks, and skill is needed to manage emotions and make optimal decisions despite the outcome.

I’ve changed fewer than 10 words from what I wrote about no limit hold ‘em there.

FPL is Short-term Luck and Long-term Skill

Successful Fantasy Premier League managers often exhibit a range of skills, including knowledge of player statistics, team strategies, fixture analysis, and an understanding of the game’s rules and dynamics.

Skilful managers carefully select players, make strategic transfers, and choose effective team formations based on their insights into player performance and upcoming fixtures. A good understanding of the sport, its players, and the tactical nuances can lead to consistent success over the long term.

However, luck does play a role in FPL too. Injuries, unexpected player performances, referee decisions, and other unpredictable factors can significantly impact a manager’s performance in any given gameweek.

Additionally, certain players may perform exceptionally well in a particular week due to circumstances that were difficult to predict. This element of luck can lead to fluctuations in rankings and scores.

In essence, while skill is crucial in Fantasy Premier League and can lead to consistent success over the course of a season, luck still plays a role in the short term.

But, FPL managers who possess a strong combination of both skill and the ability to adapt to changing circumstances are more likely to perform well over the course of a season. The game rewards those who make informed decisions while acknowledging that some factors remain beyond their control.

The Recipe for Success in FPL Using Skill and Luck

So, how do we utilise what we now know about skill and luck in FPL? There are a couple of ways to think about this:

1. Skilful Team Selection:
   • Skill: Utilise your knowledge of player statistics, form, and upcoming fixtures to make informed decisions about which players to include in your FPL team. Focus on players with consistent performance and favourable upcoming matches.
   • Luck: Remember that unexpected events like injuries or last-minute lineup changes can impact player performance. While you can’t control these events, your skill in selecting a well-balanced team can help you mitigate the impact of such occurrences.
2. Strategic, Long-Term Transfers:
   • Skill: Monitor player performance, injuries, suspensions, and fixture schedules. Use this information to plan your transfers strategically. Analyse your team’s strengths and weaknesses to make targeted changes.
   • Luck: Transfers can sometimes backfire due to unforeseen circumstances. Skilfully managing your squad and understanding the trade-offs between short-term and long-term transfers can help you navigate these situations.
3. Fixture Analysis:
   1. Skill: Consider upcoming fixtures when selecting your starting lineup and captain. Favour players facing weaker opposition, as they are more likely to perform well.
   2. Luck: Keep in mind that even favourable fixtures can result in unexpected outcomes. Skill comes into play in analysing whether a strong team is likely to dominate weaker opponents.
4. Managing Variance:
   1. Skill: Understand the concept of variance and its impact on short-term results. Even the best teams can experience setbacks due to luck or even explode when they shouldn’t. Maintain a long-term perspective and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term outcomes.
   2. Luck: Accept that certain outcomes are beyond your control and focus on the decisions you can influence, such as team selection and strategy.
5. Adapting to Changing Circumstances:
   1. Skill: Stay updated on player injuries, suspensions, and other developments that can affect your team’s performance. Be prepared to adapt your strategy as circumstances change.
   2. Luck: Unforeseen events can disrupt your plans. Skilful management involves reacting effectively and making necessary adjustments.
6. Emotional Management:
   1. Skill: Use your understanding of luck and skill to manage your emotions. Recognise that both winning and losing streaks are natural in FPL. Maintain composure and avoid making rash decisions based on emotional reactions.
   2. Luck: Remember that even with the best decisions, luck can play a role in outcomes. Focusing on your decision-making process rather than just the results can help you maintain a balanced perspective.

Feedback Loops

I’m stealing this from u/sh58’s thread on Reddit because it’s just so brilliantly put:

“there isn’t a good feedback loop like there is in almost any other thing you can learn.

In chess for instance, you make a mistake and get punished, you do a good move and get rewarded. It automatically teaches you to improve.

In poker, you make a good move and you’ve made money on average (we call it EV, expected value) but whether you will actually make money from that move is quite far related from what is actually going to happen.

Therefore, you get a lot of people playing poker and FPL who have got rewarded several times for making bad decisions and punished for making good decisions, and the game has taught them how to be a bad player. The skill it takes to overcome that, and just look at the decisions you make without being results oriented is huge.”

So, what they are saying is – don’t be too outcomes-focused. You can make the right decision in FPL, and get the wrong outcome.

That’s it

Debate over. Right?

Seriously though, incorporating a combination of skilful analysis and a realistic acknowledgment of luck will make you a more resilient and strategic FPL manager. Over time, your ability to make well-informed decisions will lead to better results and more enjoyable FPL experiences.

I’m far from the best manager in the world. I’m not even the best manager I know. But these things are how I stay sane in a year full of ups and downs. I hope they are as useful to you!