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Let’s get something cleared up straight away – there is no shame in needing Fantasy Premier League price changes explained for you.
I know people who have been playing FPL for over a decade, and they have no clue how the prices are calculated, when they change, or why they change.
(You know who you are)
You can still enjoy Fantasy Premier League without fully understanding it, of course. But I can guarantee you one thing. Those people who always seem to finish above you every year, or the people on Twitter who brag about Top 10k finishes, know exactly how Fantasy Premier League price changes work.
Not only that, but they exploit them – that’s one of the reasons why they keep winning.
If you want to take your FPL performance to the next level, this is a great place to start. I’ll explain how Fantasy Premier League player prices are decided, why they change, and how you can use the changes to your advantage.
Let’s go.
Believe it or not, Fantasy Premier League prices are not worked out by trained monkeys randomly bashing numbers on a keyboard.
Before the season each year – usually in late June or early July – the FPL price reveal will take place. This is a big moment for managers. It’s also usually a painful one, because last season’s top performers – who offered such excellent value – will usually have been made much more expensive.
Proper calculations have gone into these FPL price changes. The problem is, we don’t know exactly what those calculations are. Each year, the overlords at FPL headquarters simply tell us what the player prices will be… and we just have to accept them!
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With that said, we can work out some of the factors for ourselves. Here are the main three：
The main factor in Fantasy Premier League prices is a player’s performance in the previous season.
Coming into 2021/22, for example, Spurs’ Heung-Min Son was priced at £10.0m. He went on to register 23 goals and 10 assists, and threw 18 clean sheets into the bargain. It was no surprise, therefore, when the 2022/23 Fantasy Premier League price reveal had him at £12.0m.
This can work the other way too, of course. Marcus Rashford, for example, started the 2021/22 season at £9.5 following a strong campaign the year before. His 21/22 season ended up being absolutely terrible, and his starting price for 22/23 plummeted all the way to £6.5m.
Another factor is the player’s value from the previous season.
I don’t mean their starting value – I mean where they finished up. As we’ll soon see, players’ prices can change dramatically within a season. While there might be a big difference between their starting prices – as with Son – their price in the new season will usually be close to their finishing price the previous year.
Let’s take Brentford forward Ivan toney as an example. The opening Fantasy Premier League prices in 21/22 had him at £6.5m. He went on to register a solid 12 goals and 5 assists, rising to £6.9m in value. It was no surprise, therefore, to see him starting – right on cue – at £7.0m in 22/23.
Our third and final factor is simple hype. This is most relevant to new transfers, who are playing in the Premier League for the first time.
Nobody has any true idea how they’ll respond to the rigours of the Prem. The only things the FPL overlords can use are the player’s statistics in other leagues, and how excited they believe FPL users will be to own that player. After all, they don’t want to make a newcomer so expensive that nobody will own him.
The return of Cristiano Ronaldo in 21/22 was a fascinating proposition, for example.
He’d scored a ton of goals everywhere he’d been since leaving Man U the first time round, and was a global superstar, so FPL had no problem pricing him at an initial £12.5m. This valuation was more or less accurate, with Ronaldo’s final value – following a steady return of 18 goals and 3 assists – being £12.2m.
For a more cautionary tale, however, look no further than Romelu Lukaku.
Having smashed in 23 then 24 goals in his previous two seasons at Inter Milan, the hype machine was out of control when he joined European champions Chelsea for a cool £97.5 million. He was priced accordingly in FPL, being the second-most expensive forward – behind only Harry Kane – at £11.5m. What followed was an awful return of 8 goals, 0 assists, and a place on the bench for much of the season’s second half.
So, those are the three main ways in which the Fantasy Premier League price list is decided to begin with. Now, let’s find out how and why those prices change during the season.
I’ll get into the various rules that go into price changes soon. The main thing you need to know, however, is that FPL price changes are primarily driven by popularity.
They are not directly driven by things like goals, assists, clean sheets, and so on. These will affect a player’s price eventually, but only because they will change his popularity.
What do I mean by ‘popularity’? Basically, how many users are transferring a certain player in or out.
Crucially, FPL price changes are relative to ownership, and are driven by net transfers. They are not just driven by total transfers.
For example, let’s say Mo Salah is owned by over 2 million people, and is transferred in 100,000 times. Objectively that sounds like a lot of transfers, but it’s not many net transfers compared to his overall ownership.
But, let’s say Declan Rice is only owned by 100,000 people, and he is transferred in 50,000 times. That’s a big relative net gain in ownership, and his price would almost certainly rise.
Nobody knows exactly how many net transfers are needed for a price to change. You can get a rough idea during the season, but there are easier ways to predict FPL price changes. I’ll cover that in more detail in the next section.
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So, if you’re looking to get FPL price changes explained, that’s the number one fundamental.
Now, let’s get into a few more details of Fantasy Premier League price change rules:
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And they’re the FPL price change rules! Not so complicated after all, right?
If they do still seem a bit confusing, than please just ask for any clarifications. You can do so by hitting up our Twitter account, @Full90FPL.
It’s impossible to know exactly which players will have an FPL price increase or decrease, or when that change might happen.
With that said, there are ways to make price change predictions. These aren’t an exact science, because we don’t know the details of the FPL overlords’ algorithm, but we can get a pretty good idea.
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There are two main ways to do this.
The first is to do it yourself. As you can probably guess, that’s the harder way! It involves maintaining spreadsheets, and pouring over both historical and current data.
The second is much easier – you can simply use a pre-existing Fantasy Premier League price change predictor.
The best of these used to be FPL Statistics, but it sadly closed down before the 25-26 season. RIP.
Nowadays, we’re stuck with other ones which… are right most of the time, but are often wrong too. You can base your decisions partly, even mostly on these… but also use some common sense. If a cheap player scores a hat trick on Saturday, they’re almost certainly rising in price within a day or two, and could rise again in the following couple of days.
Again, FPL price change predictions are not a science – not even when using a website. These tools often get picks wrong, but are better than nothing.
My favourite nowadays is Live FPL’s, but other options are available.
By now, you should have a good idea of why and how FPL prices change. But… what can you actually do with this knowledge?
For less experienced Fantasy Premier League players, concentrating on simply scoring points is enough to deal with. The veterans, however, will put a big emphasis on team value.
Like every FPL player, you’ll start the season with a £100m budget. That is also everyone’s starting team value. But because of constant price changes, it’s very unlikely you’ll end up with a team that’s worth £100m.
For reference, the 2022/23 FPL winner – Jamie Pigott – finished with a team value of £106.8m.
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There are few more frustrating feelings in life than being £0.1m short of a perfect transfer in FPL. It’s even more frustrating when this has happened because you held onto a player – or multiple players – for too long, while their value dropped.
How do you avoid feeling like an FPL dummy? As with most speculation, you need to buy low and sell high.
The position you’re targeting will depend on the relative strengths and weaknesses of your team. Once you’ve identified that position, and you’ve got a shortlist of players who might improve it, hop onto FPL Statistics and take a look at their Delta and Target.
If they’re likely to rise imminently – perhaps that very night – then pull the trigger. By doing this with all of your transfers, you can save yourself a significant amount of money over the course of the season.
That covers the ‘buying low’ part. When it comes to selling, just flip that around. If one of your player has put in a couple of underwhelming performances, check the bottom of the Delta and Target rankings and make sure they’re not there. If they are, it might be time to get rid!
This might sound obsessive, but it works – I set a reminder on my phone to trigger every night before I go to bed, reminding me to check a tool like Live FPL’s. This is the only way to be sure I don’t miss out on any FPL price rises or drops, which could then price me out of any moves I want to make.
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There are a couple of caveats here.
Firstly, many managers like to wait as late as possible before making transfers. They’ll often hold off until at least the Friday press conferences, when they get fitness updates and injury news. This is definitely a safer way to play things, although it won’t do your team value any favours.
Secondly, you risk overreacting to small sample sizes. Someone like Haaland might be expensive, but he’s also proven. If he doesn’t score for a few games, his value will drop… but history suggests he’ll rediscover his shooting boots, his value will come straight back up again, and you’ve simply wasted a transfer.
In short, team value shouldn’t be your sole focus.
To have the most possible flexibility, though – particularly when it comes time to wildcard – it should certainly be a major consideration.
There are a whole lot of resources out there which can offer you Fantasy Premier League advice. Some of them are even written by people who know what they’re talking about (like us at Full90 FPL… hopefully!). The easiest thing in the world is to just follow everything they say, and you’ll probably end up with a decent score.
But where’s the fun in that?
Use the resources available to you (FPL Reddit is a great one), by all means, including those which advise you on transfers. The great thing about FPL, though – as with football in general – is that everyone has their own opinion. If you think Player A’s value is going to skyrocket over the coming months, or Player B’s is going to drop like a stone, then back yourself.
After reading this ‘Fantasy Premier League Price Changes Explained’ piece, you should have a good idea of how FPL player values change. The specifics of what you actually do with this information are completely up to you.
(If you ever do want a helping hand, though, just hit up Full90 FPL on Twitter or Reddit. Either James or Joe will get back to you with FPL advice on your team, including potential transfers.)
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