João Pedro: Good, But Let’s Calm Down a Bit

Over the last few weeks, I’ve heard FPL content creators talking about João Pedro as good buy. And look, I get it. He’s been electric. I’m happy to admit he’s better than I gave him credit for at the start of the season. But does that mean we should all rush to get him now? I’m not convinced.

The Last Eight Gameweeks

Let’s break it down and look at his last eight gameweeks. That is all the games under new manager Liam Rosenior. It also excludes a couple of games before that where it wasn’t clear if he was nailed. So, I am saying this is a more than fair data set to look at.

The first thing to say is that, of course, it is ONLY eight gameweeks, so it is not a statistically significant data set. 

Overperforming Career Averages

The next thing to point out is just how far João Pedro has outperformed his usual scoring rate over the last eight gameweeks. Across those eight matches he played 619 minutes and scored eight goals – roughly a goal every 77 minutes.

For context, that is nowhere near his typical output. In the entire 2024/25 season he scored 10 goals in 1,946 minutes. If we combine the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons, he averaged a goal every 210 minutes, and that includes penalties.

Even earlier this season the numbers looked very different. Across the first 21 gameweeks he averaged a goal every 253.5 minutes. Compared to that, his current rate of one goal every 77 minutes is an enormous spike.

You might say to me that he now plays for a better team so of course he scores more goals but we KNOW that isn’t always true. Just ask his team mate Liam Delap!

Dream Fixtures

Pedro’s had a dream run of fixtures.

He played all three bottom teams – Wolves, Burnley and West Ham. He also played five of the ten worst defences in the league – the aforementioned three plus Villa and Leeds. 

Excluding the game against Arsenal, none of these eight previous fixtures were particularly hard.

That’s why Chelsea topped our ticker for a while.

“Assists”

Another real eyebrow-raiser is his six assists from just 1.66 xA. 

A lot of that came from winning penalties. That’s a skill, but we cannot bank that all the defenders in the league would be as insanely stupid as the ones at Wolves who blatantly pushed him in the back in the area TWICE.

He actually hadn’t assisted from gameweek 4 until gameweek 23 and only had 3 assists in the season up to that point.

This season, he has already assisted the same number of goals as he did in 2 seasons of 2000 mins each at Brighton.

Fixtures Maketh The Pick

In the words of Collin Firth in that movie, Fixtures Maketh The Pick. I think that’s what he said…

Anyway, the point is yes, JP’s been fantastic but he, much like most picks in the game, is a guy you get for a good fixture run.

And his fixtures aren’t going to stay that soft. We know he’s a good player but is he suddenly an elite asset for any fixture run? I’m not buying that yet.

If you jumped on him earlier, good on you! But if you’re chasing last month’s points, I’d caution patience. Watch the fixtures. Watch the data. And don’t get swept away just because everyone’s shouting “buy.”