Fantasy Premier League (FPL) enthusiasts, brace yourselves (and I mean brace yourselves because this is a long one) for a comprehensive review of FPL Gameweeks 1 to 8.

We are here to help you distinguish between the real FPL assets and those who might be just experiencing variance. With a focus on key statistics and insights, we’ll guide you through the world of FPL to determine who’s truly worth your investment.

We will start by looking at the best attacks and best defences in the league. Then we will turn to looking at the top fifteen performing assets in FPL and asses whether they are really good assets or not.

But before we get into it, let’s talk about rank.

 

Rank is Still Not Important

Want some proof?

RankFPL PointsDifferenceDifference to 100k
1611+101
10k536-75+26
100k510-260
250k498-12-12
500k487-11-33
1 Million474-13-46
3 Million443-31-77

 

Okay, so 77 points is a big difference from 3 million to 100k. But only after eight weeks… is it big? You can make that up over the course of a season, easily.

 

Team of the Season… So Far

There’s not a lot of value in looking at this without more context, but it’s fun right?

561 points would put you 621st in the world. And this team hasn’t got any captaincy points. On the other hand, if you had tried to buy this team on day 1, you would be £3mn short, assuming a bench of 4.0, 4.0, 4.5 and 4.5.

 

Defence and Defensive Rankings

If you have been reading our pieces, you know we have been lamenting defences all season.

Only two teams below have an xGC of lower than 8 (i.e. one per game). They are the same two teams as the last time we did this sort of review in the break in between gameweeks 4 and 5.  Clean sheets remain hard to come by this year.

TeamClean sheetsGoals ConcededxGCDifferenceMins/ xGC
1 SHU02219.86+2.1439.9
2 BOU11818.75-0.7541.5
3 WHU11216.56-4.5647
4 FUL31315.78-2.7849.5
5 BUR02015.12+4.8851.7
6 WOL11415.05-1.0552.9
7 LUT01514.84+0.1652.4
8 BHA01614.10+1.9055.5
9 AVL21213.13-1.1360.9
10 MUN21212.23-0.2364.8
11 LIV1911.58-2.5866.8
12 TOT3811.07-3.0771.7
13 NFO21010.83-0.8373.8
14 CRY4710.82-3.8272
15 EVE11210.41+1.5974.7
16 BRE1129.85+2.1579.9
17 CHE378.22-1.2295.4
18 NEW398.20+0.8095.2
19 ARS466.63-0.63119.2
20 MCI365.56+0.44139.7

(I have highlighted these targetable teams in red. They are also defenders to avoid! Teams with good defenders to buy or to avoid playing against are in green.)

 

Targetable Teams & Defences to Avoid Owning

I don’t think that anyone would be shocked to see Sheffield United as the worst defence in the league. I assumed Burnley would be second worst but it looks like Bournemouth’s defence is worse than I expected.

Finding West Ham in third is shocking, but you’ll soon see that Areola is playing out of his skin and its worth noting that they have played both Man City and Liverpool already. I don’t think they are a targetable defence just yet. Similarly, I think the same of Wolves – on the eye test they look reasonably solid and not too leaky unlike others on this list.

Fulham are an interesting case, they have three clean sheets but two of those came against Luton and Palace. And if Everton could deliver on their xG, they would only have two. They have already played City and Arsenal but even then, I’m not sure I trust them.

Don’t read too much into Luton being 7th. They are not actually the worst in the league right now, but they have had a favourable fixture run. I doubt this lasts long. Similarly, Brighton are 8th, but when you watch them play you can see they are worse than this. They always look likely to concede at least 2.

 

Teams with Defenders to Buy or Avoid Playing Against

All defenders are pretty cheap this year, but if you need the cheaper ones then Palace and Forest look like the ones to go for. Of course, we all knew Newcastle were also horrendously under-priced, and they offer you another cheap avenue.

Chelsea, despite being dreadful going forward, are good at the back. Elsewhere, Arsenal and City are good at both (what a shock!).

 

The Rest

It’s interesting to see United, Liverpool and Spurs all next to each other in the middle of the pack. It’s probably not unsurprising that Spurs defence is not great, considering how attacking they are, but its important to note that they have been a bit lucky to have three clean sheets.

It’s also interesting to see Everton as the 6th best defence in the league according to xG. That’s the Everton I thought we would get at the start of the year, but the results have been woeful.

 

Attack and Attacking Rankings

TeamGoalsxGDifferenceMins/ xG
1 NEW2017.48+2.5244.7
2 LIV1816.92+1.0845.7
3 BHA2116.59+4.4147.1
4 AVL1915.59+3.4151.3
5 MCI1715.25+1.7551
6 ARS1615.21+0.7951.9
7 CHE1115.17-4.1751.7
8 TOT1815.13+2.8752.5
9 EVE914.92-5.9252.1
10 BRE1114.18-3.1855.5
11 MUN912.72-3.7262.3
12 WHU1512.46+2.5462.4
13 WOL910.11-1.1178.7
14 LUT69.64-3.6480.6
15 CRY79.00-2.0086.6
16 BOU58.92-3.9287.3
17 FUL88.81-0.8188.6
18 NFO87.80+0.20102.4
19 BUR76.58+0.42118.7
20 SHU66.11-0.11129.6

(I have highlighted the worst attacks to avoid or where you should be happy to play defenders against in red. Teams with good attackers to buy or to avoid playing against are in green.)

The five best attacks in the league, according to expected goals, are Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton, Aston Villa and Man City.

The five worst attacks in the league are Sheffield United, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Bournemouth. Avoid their attacks.

Defensive rankings are useful in picking goalkeepers and defenders, but they still don’t tell the whole truth. And general attacking rankings aren’t that useful in picking players that get attacking returns. As you know, these are individual efforts that get rewarded in FPL. So, lets look even deeper.

 

Goalkeeper Rankings

NameTeamCostStartsSavesSave PointsBonus PointsClean SheetsFPL Points
1Johnstone CRY4.582035438
2Leno FUL4.783178338
3Vicario TOT5.182984336
4Sanchez CHE4.682254335
5Areola WHU4.283392133
6José Sá WOL5.0836104129
7Neto BOU4.583695128
8Pope NEW5.582030328
9Alisson LIV5.583183128
10Ederson MCI5.681120327
11Onana MUN4.982751224
12Turner NFO4.182540224
13Martinez AVL4.972133223
14Raya ARS4.84512322
15Pickford EVE4.481952120

 

Firstly, notice that there is a sizable 18 points difference between the best and worst goalkeeper. Bloody Pickford… As you saw above, Everton ought to be doing better in clean sheet terms. Joe and I have been toying with simply hitting Pickford out, because Everton are so dreadful that it seems like we can only win from this idea. I know it sounds stupid, but it’s costing us points to keep him anyway.

In terms of who I would consider as replacements, then Areola is top of that list. He is playing out of his skin and has the highest xG prevented in the league (3.50). Plus, it saves me 0.2 and if I need that, I will probably do the transfer. Sanchez would probably be next on that list – he is nailed, plays for a top defence and, because Chelsea attackers suck, he has good chances to get bonus points.

Of course, Johnstone ought to be my number one choice, but Palace signing Henderson still makes me nervous and I don’t want to use another transfer back here. And, whilst Leno benefits from a terrible Fulham team in terms of bonus points, I really don’t rate the Fulham defence. I feel similarly about Bournemouth’s Neto.

Regardless, I wouldn’t spend more than 4.6 apart from maybe on one man. Raya sits 14th on this list off 4 starts. He plays for the second best defence in the league, and gets bonus points by way of his passing. He doesn’t get many save points, but his clean sheet potential is great.

 

Defender Rankings

NameTeamCostStartsGoalsAssistsTotal GIxGIClean SheetsBonus PointsFPL Points
1Andersen CRY4.882021,264951
2Trippier NEW6.880552,5831049
3White ARS5.681121,094745
4Cash AVL5.082133,842436
5Romero TOT4.882021,313336
6Saliba ARS5.280110,154336
7Marc Guehi CRY4.570000,404635
8Disasi CHE5.181011,203334
9Mitchell CRY4.580110,594234
10van de Ven TOT4.581010,343434
11Colwill CHE4.680111,123333
12Coufal WHU4.580440,901433
13Porro TOT5.170221,533332
14Udogie TOT4.980220,863432
15Torres AVL4.571010,932431
16Walker MCI5.380110,513231

 

Notice the 20 point difference between #1 and #15 again. It just makes me think that actually moving Pickford out would be a good idea, because it’s the same for me as moving Udogie to the best defender in the game.

The Best Defenders Going Forward

We have already seen who the best defences are, so I’m going to focus on those who have other avenues to points here.

Looking at xGI, you can see that Cash (3.84), Trippier (2.58) and Porro (1.53) are top. Cash is offering incredible value at only 5.0. Importantly, most of that xGI is in goals, which obviously score more points than assists (3.00 vs. 0.84). Villa have great upcoming fixtures and they are a good team.

Trippier is a safer bet than Cash. The Newcastle defence is brilliant so he should keep ticking over, and his ceiling should be higher than Cash because he has a higher chance of clean sheets (although lower chance of attacking involvement).

Porro is definitely the worst of the three. Tottenham are so attacking that they leave a lot of space in behind, which means that clean sheets are less likely. But, their attack is brilliant and they make use of the wing-backs. So, he is still a good asset and he is easily a better asset than Udogie. Having said that, if you have Udogie, I wouldn’t waste a transfer to switch to Porro. I don’t rate Romero as an option but maybe I’m being foolish, looking at his xGI so far. Van der Ven at least is clearly less of an asset.

I love Arsenal’s defence and fixtures. So, White is a good option. Though, his points returns are quite reliant on bonus points which won’t come as easily if Arsenal’s attack gets into gear. Saliba offers much less attacking threat (xGI of 0.15). But, if you need to save 0.4 then he feels good too.

Man City’s defence is much better than anyone else’s. But, so is their attack. This means it is hard for their defenders to get bonus points. Walker has somehow managed to get two. But, we have seen over years that his attacking threat isn’t great, that Man City are prone to rotation, and he’s 5.3. I’d avoid, basically.

If you are looking for a cheaper defender, then Crystal Palace offer you a great route to points. Andersen is naturally the standout but if you need to save 0.3 then Mitchell and Guehi are great options. Colwill also offers a great route to points as, despite their terrible attack, Chelsea are solid at the back. He’s obviously much cheaper than Disasi too. To me, they are all better options than Pau Torres.

Coufal has overperformed his xGI in the last eight games but his fixtures going forward look great and West Ham have good fixtures going forward. But, we saw earlier that the West Ham defence isn’t great, so I don’t think I would go there.

 

Midfielder Rankings

NameTeamCostStartsGoalsAssistsTotal GIxGIClean SheetsFPL Points
1Salah LIV12.685498,00159
2Son TOT9.486064,90354
3Saka ARS8.674376,53353
4Bowen WHU7.385164,35150
5Maddison TOT8.082575,16347
6Jensen BRE5.483251,95346
7Odegaard ARS8.583253,62446
8Sterling CHE7.073363,64245
9Neto WOL5.781674,10143
10Diaby AVL6.782462,59242
11Mitoma BHA6.673363,88042
12Mbeumo BRE6.884046,31140
13Foden MCI7.671342,36338
14Hwang WOL5.455052,23038
15March BHA6.463142,86238
16Gordon NEW5.662462,90437
17Ward-Prowse WHU6.372353,77137

 

Again, notice the 21 point difference between first and fifteenth…

Mo Salah v.s. No Salah

Let’s start with Mo Salah. He’s the best mid in the game. He delivers consistently and is the only nailed on Liverpool attacker. He is also way ahead of the others on xGI. He remains an excellent option and the only reason why you wouldn’t have him is budgetary. Right?

Well… No. People are still right that you can, in theory, beat Mo Salah with No Salah. A midfield of Saka, Son, Maddison, Bowen, Mbeumo would have got you 244 points for 40.1 in today’s prices. A midfield of Salah, Saka, Maddison, Mbeumo and Gordon would have got you 236 points for 41.6 in today’s prices (although Gordon didn’t play all the minutes in the first 8 games).

So, it is possible to go No Salah and be successful for cheaper. The thing is, Salah is consistent and you can trust him. All the other midfielders are less consistent. So, its more risky to go without him and you need to be agile with your transfers to secure the correct midfielders.

And if you had backed Fernandes, who has the fourth highest xGI among midfielders in the league, or Rashford, who has the eight highest xGI among midfielders, then you would have made a mistake. Not a foolish mistake, an informed one. But, nonetheless, you would be suffering now. Neither appear on this list.

The Best Mid-Price (9.5-7.0) Midfielders Going Forward

Which ones of these are the correct midfielders then? Saka is the best of the rest. Arsenal are very reliant on him, you can see it when you watch them. You can also see it in the data – his xGI is the second best among midfielders. Odegaard is nowhere near the same in terms of data and I would expect his FPL points to reflect that by the end of the season. However, he overperformed his xGI last year and there are players who can do that, so maybe I am wrong.

Speaking of players who frequently outperform their xGI, Son is a good pick. Apart from last year, he has consistently outperformed his xGI. What we have seen this year is that its all or nothing for this guy, he hauls or he blanks. So, I actually prefer Maddison who is more consistent but has a lower ceiling week in, week out.

Sterling is similar to Son. All or nothing. The difference is that his team sucks and he only hauls against terrible teams. I don’t expect he will be in the top 10 midfielders by the end of the year, unless something fundamentally changes at Chelsea, so I wouldn’t pick him.

Bowen, on the other hand, is being slept on a little bit. Two years ago we really saw what he could do – 206 points. He is currently on course to beat this total in terms of FPL points, though it is worth noting that he is overperforming his xGI, so he probably won’t beat that. Regardless, he is still a great pick at a great price.

As for Foden, I wouldn’t bring him anywhere near my FPL team. City remain rotation prone when everyone is fit, and he is not their main attacking outlet with De Bruyne injured, which some of us hoped he would be. I’d much rather have Bowen or Maddison for a similar price.

The Best Cheap Midfielders (less than 6.9) Going Forward

Okay, I agree, 6.8 doesn’t feel cheap for a midfielder. But, it is when you consider you can’t start a 4.5 with any confidence of returns.

So, Mbeumo then? Well, he has been the best of this lot in terms of his xGI and when you watch the games. The trouble is, Brentford have a massive injury crisis and look dreadful. After this week they have four tough fixtures before playing Luton, so he wouldn’t be a priority for me.

In the medium term, I would rather have Mitoma or Diaby.

Mitoma plays for the better attacking side but his downside is that he will play a lot of minutes this year thanks to European football and Brighton’s reliance upon him. Plus, Brighton play City this week so he is hardly a priority buy. Diaby also has European football to contend with, but Emery is an experienced manager at this level and knows how to rotate a squad. The thing is, Diaby looks amazing on the pitch but the data suggests he is significantly overperforming, so there is a niggle of a doubt there for me.

If you want to go cheaper, then I don’t mind March or Ward-Prowse. March is fine as an FPL asset but he won’t set the world alight. Ward-Prowse is confusing to me as I still have the Southampton Ward-Prowse in my head. But this guy is different and you can see it in his xGI – 13th among all midfielders and ahead of Sterling and Odegaard.

If you want even cheaper and want to go below 6.0 then I think there are a couple of bargains down here in Neto and Gordon. Neto has been a revelation this year and he looks super impressive for Wolves. His excellent form won’t continue, he plays for Wolves after all, but I don’t mind the punt to jump on. Gordon is likely the better asset though. With Barnes injured until sometime closer to Christmas, Gordon should get loads more minutes in the Premier League. And, as you saw above, Newcastle are currently the best attack in the league.

As for the others Jensen and Hwang are waaaaay overperforming at the moment and will come back down to earth.

 

Forward Rankings

NameTeamCostStartsGoalsAssistsTotal GIxGIFPL Points
1Watkins AVL8.1847114.4659
2Haaland MCI14.188198.3855
3Álvarez MCI7.083583.7948
4Isak NEW7.566065.5643
5Morris LUT5.683143.8537
6Edouard CRY5.574042.9436
7Wissa BRE5.982243.3534
8Awoniyi NFO6.663252.6833
9Núñez LIV7.433363.4933
10Solanke BOU6.483143.6332
11Foster BUR5.063251.7831
12Nketiah ARS5.572242.1230
13Antonio WHU5.982132.1829
14Ferguson BHA6.054042.9729
15Wilson NEW7.824043.6925

 

Again, notice the difference between first and fifteenth. It’s a huge 34 points. This tells you, like normal, there aren’t as many options up front.

Of course Haaland is class. Unlike Salah though, I don’t think there is any way you can go without him. No Haaland has been a popular topic on FPL Twitter recently but when you look at the underlying stats, nobody comes near to him. 8.38 xGI and 7.94 of that is xG. He has also missed a load of big chances which means he has even higher upside.

The next level, at least in terms of xG is Isak. There are rumours that he is injured and we know that he doesn’t start every week, that’s why Wilson is on this list too. I don’t think we can see him as a consistent asset every week.

After Isak, comes Jackson in xGI terms. I don’t need to tell you how poor he has been, which is why he doesn’t make this list and why he remains a hard avoid.

Me and my fellow Watkins owners have been lucky and unlucky with this guy. His xGI is only 4.46 and 3.67 of that is xG. We have been lucky with the sheer number of lucky assists and a couple of “fantasy” assists. Still, the guy is a beast and plays for an excellent coach. He has good fixtures going forward and there is no reason he can’t continue to return. I just don’t expect it at this rate.

Álvarez owners have also been very lucky. Me and Joe have been toying with getting this guy for weeks now, but neither of us can get ourselves out of the mentality that he will get rotated straight away. Looking at the data doesn’t help. This guy has less xGI than Morris at Luton and you know we aren’t recommending you bring him in.

Edourad, Wissa, Awoniyi and Solanke are all much of a muchness at the moment. Eye test wise I like Awoniyi the best. Team wise I liked Wissa, until the injury crisis at Brentford. Edouard is probably the least favourite because, let’s be frank, Palace’s attack sucks.

With this lot, it’s more a question of comparing them (as third strikers) to midfielders (fifth midfielders). And, looking at it right now, it looks like Neto or Gordon are better bets.

As for Núñez, Wilson, Nketiah and Ferguson they are all great players but only when the players they get rotated with are not available. Antonio and Foster are not options.

 

That’s It.

In the world of FPL, where every point counts, understanding the true value of players is crucial.

As we’ve delved into the performance data from FPL Gameweeks 1 to 8, we’ve identified standout performers. From the unrelenting consistency of Mo Salah to the undeniable allure of Erling Haaland, we’ve seen how the FPL landscape is evolving.

Whether it’s in defence, midfield, or up front, there are gems to be found at every position. So, as the FPL season unfolds, make your choices wisely. Invest in those real assets, and you’ll be on your way to FPL glory.

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