Prepare yourselves, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) enthusiasts, because we’re about to embark on a detailed exploration of FPL Gameweeks 1 to 12 (and I do mean prepare, as this is going to be quite extensive).
Our goal is to assist you in distinguishing between genuine FPL assets and those simply riding the waves of variance. Through a deep dive into key statistics and insights, we aim to navigate the FPL landscape and help you identify players truly worthy of your investment.
Commencing with an examination of the league’s most potent attacks and robust defences, we’ll then shift our focus to the top fifteen performing assets in each position in FPL. Our aim is to assess whether these players are genuinely reliable assets or if their success is merely a result of fleeting circumstances.
Before delving into the details, let’s take a moment to discuss the importance of rank.
Does Rank Matter Yet?
In short. No.
| Rank | FPL Points | Difference | Difference to 100k |
| 1 | 882 | +112 | |
| 10k | 801 | -81 | +31 |
| 100k | 770 | -31 | 0 |
| 250k | 754 | -16 | -16 |
| 500k | 739 | -15 | -31 |
| 1 Million | 721 | -18 | -49 |
| 3 Million | 680 | -41 | -90 |
Four weeks ago it was a 77 point gap from 3 million to 100k and I said you could easily make that up over the course of the season. Now, it is a 90 point gap with 26 gameweeks to go. Which is still doable.
This isn’t the answer I was expecting to find as I thought the field would have spread a bit more but there it is in black and white.
Top Talking Points from Last Gameweek
Bowen is the Best!
Bowen has eight open play goals in 12 games. He is returning ridiculously. He might even be a captaincy shout in the next gameweek against Burnley when Haaland and Salah go up against each other.
Spurs Are Dead to Us
With Maddison injured, Spurs attack looked dreadful. He’s out for months and their fixtures look increasingly difficult which makes both attack and defence harder to justify. It’s possible that this is an overreaction but I’d be seriously considering Son or at least considering a way to do it in the next few gameweeks. The trouble is, Bowen is the only guy near his price range I want in my team right now.
Newcastle Aren’t Dead to Us
The squad is looking pretty thin and they just lost to one of the worst teams in the league but Newcastle still aren’t dead to us. The squad is pretty weak regardless of who is playing. It’s not like they have a plethora of talent like City but they don’t even really have Liverpool’s stars and weak bench.
So, Trippier remains fine to me. They can clean all games and he retains so much responsibility. Gordon is so cheap that you can’t be that annoyed. Away from home, they aren’t great defensively but I still think they’re good and offering good value.
Eddie Howe is a massive liar so we never know who is going to be fit. I’d be wary of bringing Lascelles in on that basis.
Team of The Season So Far
So, let’s turn to the best FPL players so far. Here they are:
The striking thing to me is that, if you ignore goalkeeper, this team was £82mn at the start of the year. So, if you spent the minimum at the start of the season on the other other players in your team it would cost £103.0.
Is that surprising? Well, yeah. This team should have Bruno, Rashford and Trent in it and cost another 7.5mn for a total of £110.5. But a lot of top assets aren’t performing that well and a lot of cheaper guys are.
Enough with this though, let’s get to the real meat!
Defence and Defensive Rankings in FPL
| Team | Clean Sheets | Goals Conceded | xGC | Difference | Mins/ xGC | ||
| 1 | – | SHU | 0 | 31 | 26.6 | 4.4 | 44.7 |
| 2 | -5 | LUT | 0 | 22 | 25.13 | -3.13 | 46.6 |
| 3 | +1 | BOU | 2 | 27 | 24.36 | 2.64 | 48.2 |
| 4 | +1 | BUR | 0 | 30 | 22.72 | 7.28 | 51.9 |
| 5 | -3 | WHU | 1 | 22 | 22.63 | -0.63 | 51.6 |
| 6 | +2 | FUL | 3 | 20 | 22.52 | -2.52 | 52.2 |
| 7 | +1 | WOL | 1 | 20 | 19.62 | 0.38 | 60.8 |
| 8 | -2 | MUN | 4 | 16 | 19.06 | -3.06 | 62 |
| 9 | -3 | TOT | 4 | 15 | 18.98 | -3.98 | 62.9 |
| 10 | -3 | NFO | 3 | 18 | 18.76 | -0.76 | 63.4 |
| 11 | +3 | BHA | 0 | 21 | 17.34 | 3.66 | 67.7 |
| 12 | -2 | CRY | 5 | 16 | 16.98 | -0.98 | 69.1 |
| 13 | -3 | BRE | 3 | 17 | 16.55 | 0.45 | 71.1 |
| 14 | +5 | AVL | 2 | 17 | 16.08 | 0.92 | 73.8 |
| 15 | – | EVE | 2 | 17 | 15.97 | 1.03 | 73.2 |
| 16 | -1 | CHE | 3 | 16 | 15.14 | 0.86 | 78 |
| 17 | +6 | LIV | 4 | 10 | 14.65 | -4.65 | 79.6 |
| 18 | – | NEW | 5 | 13 | 13.33 | -0.33 | 87.9 |
| 19 | -1 | MCI | 4 | 12 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 104.6 |
| 20 | +1 | ARS | 5 | 10 | 9.37 | 0.63 | 127 |
Okay, lets talk about my awful goalkeeping choices for a minute. I moved off a good underlying defence with rubbish FPL points in Pickford at Everton to a bad underlying defence with a good keeper in Areola. And now, Areola looks terrible and isn’t delivering the saves he was before. I wouldn’t buy him now if I had the choice.
If I had loads of money in the bank and was on wildcard I would probably just get Raya right now. He’s only 4.9 so is one of the cheapest routes to the best defence in the league according to expected goals conceded (xGC).
Anyway, rant over.
Targetable Teams & Defences to Avoid Owning
The four worst defences in the league are dreadful and would target them every opportunity I get. Those are Sheffield United, Luton, Bournemouth and Burnley. I’d probably add West Ham to that list. Fulham narrowly avoids it solely because they got spanked by City and that messes with the numbers.
After that, I’m not concerned about playing against any team between and including Fulham in 6th and Everton in 15th.
Teams with Defenders to Buy or Avoid Playing Against
Arsenal have the best defence, good long-term fixtures and they aren’t that expensive so I’d try to get one of them. City are just a rotation nightmare as always and we covered Newcastle above (still a good defence).
For me, Liverpool and Chelsea are that next wrung away but both have great defences and are also liable to make mistakes. They’re the sort of teams that you spend a lot of money on and get frustrated. Still, its noticeable that Liverpool have really tightened up their defence in recent games hence their big drop.
So, for the cheap defenders in rotations you probably want to look at Palace, Brentford, Villa and Everton. Palace and Brentford rotate very well for the next four weeks: lut, LUT, BOU, shu
Villa and Everton don’t seem like good shouts because of their lack of clean sheets. But, the data bore out with Everton in the last 4 weeks and we can only hope it does for Villa too.
Plus, all defences outside the top 5 suck and those guys are expensive.
Attack and Attacking Rankings
| Team | Goals | xG | Difference | Mins/ xG | ||
| 1 | +1 | LIV | 27 | 26.9 | 0.1 | 43.3 |
| 2 | +5 | CHE | 21 | 25.62 | -4.62 | 46.1 |
| 3 | +2 | MCI | 32 | 24.83 | 7.17 | 47.2 |
| 4 | – | AVL | 29 | 24.13 | 4.87 | 49.2 |
| 5 | -4 | NEW | 27 | 23.59 | 3.41 | 49.7 |
| 6 | +4 | BRE | 19 | 22.88 | -3.88 | 51.4 |
| 7 | -1 | ARS | 26 | 21.49 | 4.51 | 55.4 |
| 8 | -5 | BHA | 25 | 20.88 | 4.12 | 56.2 |
| 9 | -1 | TOT | 24 | 19.37 | 4.63 | 61.6 |
| 10 | -1 | EVE | 14 | 18.11 | -4.11 | 64.5 |
| 11 | +1 | WHU | 21 | 17.9 | 3.1 | 65.3 |
| 12 | -1 | MUN | 13 | 17.64 | -4.64 | 67 |
| 13 | – | WOL | 16 | 16.83 | -0.83 | 70.8 |
| 14 | +1 | CRY | 12 | 14.29 | -2.29 | 82.1 |
| 15 | +1 | BOU | 11 | 14.01 | -3.01 | 83.8 |
| 16 | +2 | NFO | 14 | 13.29 | 0.71 | 89.5 |
| 17 | -3 | LUT | 10 | 13.06 | -3.06 | 89.6 |
| 18 | -1 | FUL | 10 | 12.48 | -2.48 | 94.2 |
| 19 | – | BUR | 9 | 9.99 | -0.99 | 118 |
| 20 | – | SHU | 10 | 9.68 | 0.32 | 122.7 |
The most interesting things to me from these stats are:
- Chelsea breaking into the top two on expected goals. They still can’t score many of them but if they start to click they may start to offer value.
- Newcastle dropping four spots which probably reflects fixture pile-up from the champions league and an injury crisis.
- Brentford jumping four spots. In comparison to four weeks ago when we were looking at a pretty lacklustre Brentford team they have really turned it around with their mini injury crisis.
- Brighton dropping five spots. Again, this is probably fixture pile up but I can’t wait to sell Mitoma right now…
Nevertheless, whilst defensive rankings are useful in picking goalkeepers and defenders, but they still don’t tell the whole truth. And general attacking rankings aren’t that useful in picking players that get attacking returns. As you know, these are individual efforts that get rewarded in FPL. So, lets look even deeper.
Goalkeeper Rankings
| Name | Team | Cost | Starts | Saves | Save Points | Bonus Points | Clean Sheets | FPL Points | ||
| 1 | +8 | Alisson | LIV | 5.6 | 12 | 40 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | -1 | Johnstone | CRY | 4.6 | 12 | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | -1 | Leno | FUL | 4.7 | 12 | 47 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 4 | +4 | Pope | NEW | 5.5 | 12 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 47 |
| 5 | -2 | Vicario | TOT | 5.2 | 12 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 47 |
| 6 | +5 | Onana | MUN | 4.8 | 12 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | -3 | Sanchez | CHE | 4.6 | 12 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | -3 | Areola | WHU | 4.3 | 12 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 40 |
| 9 | -2 | Neto | BOU | 4.5 | 10 | 46 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 39 |
| 10 | – | Ederson | MCI | 5.5 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 37 |
| 11 | -5 | José Sá | WOL | 5.0 | 12 | 42 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 36 |
| 12 | +2 | Raya | ARS | 4.9 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 35 |
| 13 | NEW | Flekken | BRE | 4.5 | 11 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 34 |
| 14 | +1 | Pickford | EVE | 4.4 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| 15 | -2 | Martinez | AVL | 4.9 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 30 |
Of course, you aren’t as stupid as I am to waste a transfer or take a hit back here but I’m going to talk about these guys as if I was on wildcard.
The gap between best and worst goalkeeper has widened from 18 points to 26 points. This is largely due to Alisson absolutely smashing it. But, he’s still not who I would look at. For, 0.7 cheaper, you can have Raya who is getting 4.375 points per game in comparison to Alisson’s 4.67 that’s not a big points difference but it is a big price difference.
Onana is another noticeable riser but United did play Luton, Fulham and Sheffield in 3 of the last 4 games so perhaps we shouldn’t read that much into it.
On the other side, José Sá had a big drop off. Wolves played Spurs, Sheffield, Newcastle and Bournemouth in that run so not the hardest run. I wouldn’t be looking at him.
Areola all of a sudden doesn’t look so great as he isn’t making a huge number of saves per game but he still feels okay, if not good and has 3 save points in the last 4 weeks.
But, its really Johnstone owners who are laughing all the way to the bank. For only 4.5 at the start of the season, those guys have got 50 points. I’d certainly consider him.
Defender Rankings
| Name | Team | Cost | Starts | Goals | Assists | Total GI | xGI | Clean Sheets | Bonus Points | FPL Points | ||
| 1 | +1 | Trippier | NEW | 7.0 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3.85 | 5 | 15 | 69 |
| 2 | -1 | Andersen | CRY | 5.1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.41 | 5 | 9 | 60 |
| 3 | +5 | Saliba | ARS | 5.4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.16 | 5 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | -1 | White | ARS | 5.8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.28 | 5 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | +4 | Mitchell | CRY | 4.7 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.28 | 5 | 5 | 50 |
| 6 | -2 | Cash | AVL | 5.2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4.64 | 3 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | +6 | Porro | TOT | 5.2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.63 | 4 | 4 | 45 |
| 8 | NEW | Schär | NEW | 5.2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.10 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 9 | NEW | Zinchenko | ARS | 4.9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.35 | 4 | 6 | 44 |
| 10 | NEW | Romero | TOT | 5.0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.59 | 4 | 7 | 44 |
| 11 | +5 | Walker | MCI | 5.3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.21 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 12 | -2 | van de Ven | TOT | 4.6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 13 | -6 | Guehi | CRY | 4.6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 5 | 6 | 42 |
| 14 | NEW | Mykolenko | EVE | 4.4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.29 | 2 | 6 | 42 |
| 15 | NEW | Pinnock | BRE | 4.6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.70 | 3 | 5 | 41 |
The gap between best and worst has widened by 8 points since we last did this. Not huge but it is now 28 points. Worth noting that this isn’t much better than at goalkeeper so perhaps transfers here are gaining you less, which you would expect.
Trippier finally takes his spot as king of all defenders. I’m really not concerned about owning him all year at this rate.
Palace’s defenders Andersen, Mitchell and Guehi all retain positions in the top 15 FPL defenders.
Walker was the most surprising player on this list. He is too expensive for what he offers going forward but I’m shocked to see he has started all 12 games. I guess City have had injury problems back there.
Cash has dropped off on his xG which is really hurting him. We can see in the defensive rankings that Villa’s defence has tightened up which might explain why he only has 0.8 xGI over the last 4 games. That’s not terrible but not great either when you can spend less for Palace defenders.
Saliba has soared up the rankings within the last 4 games but a lot of that happened in the last week. I am not sure he will be there by the time we next do this at Christmas.
Looking at this, I think Trippier is the only one I love long-term of the expensive guys. Otherwise, Palace defenders are great long-term holds. One of the Arsenal defenders and that’s your back three sorted.
Midfielder Rankings
| Name | Team | Cost | Starts | Goals | Assists | Total GI | xGI | Clean Sheets | Bonus Points | FPL points | ||
| 1 | – | Salah | LIV | 13.0 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 12.36 | 4 | 14 | 101 |
| 2 | – | Son | TOT | 9.7 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 6.59 | 4 | 11 | 82 |
| 3 | +1 | Bowen | WHU | 7.7 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 6.19 | 1 | 8 | 75 |
| 4 | +8 | Mbeumo | BRE | 6.8 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10.79 | 3 | 9 | 74 |
| 5 | -2 | Saka | ARS | 8.6 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 7.55 | 4 | 8 | 71 |
| 6 | +4 | Diaby | AVL | 6.8 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4.94 | 3 | 5 | 65 |
| 7 | -2 | Maddison | TOT | 7.9 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6.04 | 5 | 6 | 63 |
| 8 | – | Sterling | CHE | 6.9 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4.86 | 2 | 6 | 60 |
| 9 | NEW | Douglas Luiz | AVL | 5.6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4.52 | 2 | 10 | 60 |
| 10 | -4 | Jensen | BRE | 5.4 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2.69 | 5 | 8 | 58 |
| 11 | +3 | Hwang | WOL | 5.5 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4.43 | 0 | 5 | 56 |
| 12 | +4 | Gordon | NEW | 5.8 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4.68 | 6 | 3 | 56 |
| 13 | NEW | Fernandes | MUN | 8.3 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7.32 | 4 | 10 | 55 |
| 14 | -1 | Foden | MCI | 7.5 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4.69 | 4 | 6 | 55 |
| 15 | +2 | Ward-Prowse | WHU | 6.1 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5,29 | 1 | 7 | 54 |
The gap between first and fifteenth had widened from just 21 points to a huge 47 points. Even if you ignore first place, the gap between second and fifteenth is now 28 points.
We’ve said before and we will say it again. Just get Salah. Yes, he is expensive but he’s also miles better than all other mids.
It’s not hugely surprising to see Son in second spot after he has been playing out of position striker in an all out Spurs attack. But, like I said at the top, I’m not sure how much we can trust him without Maddison there.
We also said at the top that Bowen was the best. Well, not quite. But he’s certainly best of the rest and an easy buy.
Saka has been somewhat disappointing lately. I was really hoping he would get a decent haul from some favourable fixtures in two of the last four games but he’s getting shut out.
Mbeumo is clearly winning the battle of the 7.0-6.0 mids. Like Saka, Mitoma has been a bit lacklustre recently whereas Diaby has been getting good returns. Again, I feel confident in dropping Mitoma for Mbeumo soon.
Of the really cheap guys, I still think Gordon is the best, particularly if Wilson is injured for six weeks as reported. He plays for a top five team and is so cheap. I still don’t trust Hwang and if you think about how bad Wolves are you can see why. We have a new entrant in this bracket with Douglas Luiz but unlike the other two I don’t see his routes to goal and think he has been fortunate. All that being said, the xGI says all three of these guys have been awfully lucky so maybe we need to watch this slot.
I said Jensen and Hwang were overperforming last time and would come back down. I was half right… and I’m holding out hope I’ll be completely correct by new year.
Forward Rankings
| Name | Team | Cost | Starts | Goals | Assists | Total GI | xGI | Clean Sheets | Bonus Points | FPL points | ||
| 1 | +1 | Haaland | MCI | 14.0 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 13.64 | 4 | 14 | 96 |
| 2 | -1 | Watkins | AVL | 8.4 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 8.68 | 2 | 9 | 80 |
| 3 | – | Álvarez | MCI | 7.1 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5.67 | 5 | 11 | 66 |
| 4 | +6 | Solanke | BOU | 6.4 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6.17 | 2 | 6 | 56 |
| 5 | +4 | Núñez | LIV | 7.5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6.01 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 6 | +6 | Eddie Nketiah | ARS | 5.7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3.38 | 6 | 5 | 50 |
| 7 | – | Wissa | BRE | 5.9 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4.94 | 4 | 7 | 48 |
| 8 | +7 | Wilson | NEW | 7.9 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6.15 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| 9 | -4 | Edouard | CRY | 5.5 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.30 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 10 | -5 | Morris | LUT | 5.3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4.42 | 1 | 7 | 45 |
| 11 | -7 | Isak | NEW | 7.4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5.57 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 12 | -4 | Awoniyi | NFO | 6.4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4.01 | 2 | 3 | 42 |
| 13 | NEW | Jackson | CHE | 6.8 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 8.57 | 3 | 5 | 42 |
| 14 | – | Ferguson | BHA | 6.1 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3.23 | 1 | 5 | 41 |
| 15 | NEW | Matheus Cunha | WOL | 5.5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4.52 | 1 | 2 | 39 |
The gap between first and fifteenth has widened from 34 points to 57 points.
Forward is a pretty annoying place this year. There’s only really three options: Haaland, Watkins and Alvarez. Haaland is class and you know about him.
Watkins has slowed down but I think that was expected. He’s still offering exceptional value at that price, particularly when you think about what you can buy with 8.0 in midfield.
Alvarez has also slowed down, again I did predict this. But, I will be hard-pushed to not have the guy when they play Luton soon.
The rest of these guys are rotation prone like Wilson/Isak, Nunez, Nketiah, Ferguson or playing for bad teams Edoard, Morris, Awoniyi, Cunha.
There are three exceptions. Firstly, Solanke. Bournemouth are shit. But he is good. And his fixtures going forward are okay. He’s returning about his xGI – there is no overperformance here.
Secondly, Wissa. He started hot and then went very cold. But, after Arsenal this week, Brentford have good fixtures coming up. I don’t hate the punt for him over someone like Hwang.
Finally, Jackson. When the season started he looked very out of his depth. Just missing chances for fun. He’s got a bit better and so have Chelsea. After Newcastle this week, their fixtures get pretty good (not great but pretty good). If they can continue this march to form then he is an interesting guy to watch.
That’s It
Hopefully this deep dive has given you some food for thought.
These pieces take a lot of work but because of international breaks, we have had a lot of opportunities (in between 4 and 5, 8 and 9, now) to write them. There isn’t another international break this year and the next big break comes in the first two weeks of the year alongside AFCON. So, I don’t expect we will have much opportunity to do another one until the break between 20 and 21. In the meantime, keep checking the website, our Twitter/X and follow us on Reddit to keep up to date on all things FPL!