FPL Gameweeks 1-3 – What Have We Learned

It’s that time of year that I trot out my favourite Donald Rumsfeld quote. What? You don’t have a favourite? Okay, me neither. This is the only Donald Rumsfeld quote I know…

“There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

That’s great James. How the hell is that relevant to FPL?

 

FPL Known Knowns, Possible Knowns and Known Unknowns

I’m glad you asked.

In this International Break Summary, we will be looking at three things:

  1. Known knowns – Things that we know to be true.
  2. Unknown knowns – Things we think that we know to be true.
  3. Known unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of.

We are gonna go team by team and look at this all, but first…

 

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING

I don’t want to say “but, this is a small sample size” after every single statement, so I am saying it here.

I will try and use longer term trends (so including last year) to tell whether the last 3 games show some truth or just some variance. 

But, sometimes I am just extrapolating trends from three gameweeks of data (which is not a lot). Its the best we can do and they will be educated guesses but take it with a pinch of salt.

 

Attacks and Defences

Attacks

It looks like attacks have reverted to the mean. The 2021-2022 Premier League season had 1071 goals scored, 2022–23 had 1,084 goals scored, while the 2023–24 season had 1,246 goals scored. So far this season we have had 83 goals. Extrapolate that out and we should have 1050 goals for the season this year. 

The interesting thing then is that 23/24 appears like an outlier. The BBC did a really good write-up about this a few months ago and you can find it here. In summary, the extra stoppage time last year and penalty takers increased success rates from the spot resulted in more goals. Perhaps teams have adjusted to that?

Defences

In 2021/22, 9 Premier League teams kept double-digit clean sheets. In 2022/23, that jumped to 11. In 2023/24, that number dropped to just 7. If that seems somewhat arbitrary, let’s take 13 cleans as our cut-off. So, that’s a team keeping a clean sheet in around 1/3 of their games. 5 teams did it in 21/22, 5 again in 22/23, 3 did it in 23/24. 

It currently seems that the number of teams that will keep clean sheets will be incredibly limited as cheap defences appear not to be reliable.

 

Haaland & Salah – Double Up?

Thanks to some great work by u/IFTN and some good folks on reddit we can say with some confidence that the Haaland and Salah double up has outperformed any other combination.

This does not mean that this will continue. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

If Salah and Haaland carry on as normal they will break 500 points and dwarf the best ever FPL total of 303 for a player (which Salah still holds). So, obviously, that’s not going to happen

I am now without Haaland after selling him and Winks for Watkins and Palmer. I am unhappy about missing out on a hat-trick this week but I am not stressing too much right now, so if you don’t have both I suggest you don’t stress either. It’s only been three weeks.

 

Arsenal

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

This is easy enough. The long-term trends showed us how bloody good Arsenal’s defence was and is. It’s not got any weaker based on the performances so far this year.

And Saka is just as important to their offensive output as last year or the year before. And, he’s as reliable as a Swiss watch.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true.:

Havertz has been bagging goals from that striker position and we can say with confidence that he is nailed. But, I actually think he might be better than nailed. He could be one of the best picks in the game. At only 8.5 for one of the best attacks in the league I am super interested in him right now.

In stark contrast, Odegaard has dropped from my watchlist. He’s always been a bit of a low ceiling guy who just plods along and pops up with returns when you might not expect them. But, with an xGI per 90 of 0.42, I currently don’t think he’s worth his price tag.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

The left back situation is still unclear to me. It seems like Calafiori is the guy most likely to nail down the spot but I don’t know for sure.

And, Sterling’s loan move could reduce the minutes of the front three. I think it is most likely that he is a backup to Saka. But, he spent a long time playing on the left wing for City and that’s where he spent most of his time at Chelsea last year. He’s even played a false-nine a couple of times. I’m just not 100% sure where he fits.

And then there is Trossard. He is just better than Martinelli. Both Joe and I think so. But more importantly, Arteta started Tross last weekend so he might think so too. What this space.

Aston Villa

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Mr. Watkins was super lucky last year to get 18 FPL assists off 4.02 xA. We already knew that was unlikely to continue. We said so at the start of the year. Stop panicking about him. If he can match his 22/23 FPL output of 175 points then he can offer value at his price tag.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

There is lots of chat about Rogers because he starts and plays 90 in an attacking role for a good team. He’s almost certainly not the next Cole Palmer, but he could offer some value. It’s just that I think he’s gonna be one of those guys that passes the eye test but doesn’t deliver actual points. In the second half of the season I’ll probably have enough team value that he is the logical 12th man. But, is he a good pick now? I currently think he’s good in real life but not FPL.

I saw some speculation on Reddit that you should just get Onana instead of Rogers.

Technically, the guy has the same xGI as Eze. But, over 5571 mins from 22/23 and 23/24 he only put up 8.22 xGI. That’s the kind of thing you expect from a giant beast of a defensive midfielder. Some attacking threat from set pieces and an occasional good shot but they’re never good picks. I’m more interested in whether he is so good that Luiz is no longer needed and Villa are defensively solid. Which I think is true.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

And the known unknown at the top of my mind is whether this squad can cope with playing Champions League football. They’ve already lost Bailey to injury. We should be worried that they are the Newcastle of last year, as that squad is just not that deep.

The other one is, why hasn’t an almost record signing of Maatsen not started yet?

Bournemouth

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Yeah, I don’t think we know anything for sure about these guys.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Semenyo has taken more shots than any other player in the premier league (17). He’s got 2 goals and an assist off 2.46 xGI. He could be the real deal.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

On the other hand, their defence might stink. Zero clean sheets and they conceded twice to Everton… That would be a bit surprising considering they were the 7th best defence in the second half of last season and 9th best for the whole season

Brentford

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

I was wrong and Toney did actually leave the league. I have to say I’m baffled that the Saudis wanted him more than Osimhen and that they met his asking price, but that means…

Bryan Mbeumo is now one the best assets in FPL. He’s nailed, on pens, talismanic and is cheap. At 1.89xGI he’s twelfth in the league for expected goal involvement and we know from previous years he’s good for it. The only thing holding us back from bringing him straight in is he plays Man City next. He’ll be the first name in my gameweek 6 wildcard.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Similarly to Mbeumo, Wissa benefits from Toney leaving but also Thiago being injured.

Last year both Joe and I had this guy to start the season because his underlyings when Toney was injured were great. He started the season strong last year but fell off a bit. This year he has started strong again. We are monitoring him as a cheap third striker to watch.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

Last year these guys were pretty solid defensively but they have started the season poorly. They’re currently 5th worst defence according to xGC in the league. Okay, they played Liverpool, but they also gave up 1.57 xG to Southampton. Who are dreadful. Anyway, its making me a little nervous about what I thought was a sure fire move to Flekken on wildcard.

Brighton

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Firstly, the club itself rarely makes a misstep (don’t say Undav, they even managed to sell him for a profit). It’s amazing that the changes in the backroom don’t ever seem to make them worse.

And Mitoma is back to being a good pick. 15th for xGI in the league – that’s currently better than Palmer and Jota. Hopefully he doesn’t get injured like last year, then he can be a good pick for the long term.

Finally, Barco was not the one…

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Joao Pedro has two goals so far and is nailed for 80 plus mins. He costs less than 6.0, so what’s not to like?

Well, he’s overperformed his xG by over 1 right now. That’s miles off Wissa, who is only 0.4 more and nobody is talking about him. I like Pedro as a player and we have seen him being amazing in terms of his xGI per 90 last year. I’m just not 100% sure.

And Minteh is one of the reasons why I am not sure. He’s an alternative to pick. Obviously he’s not a forward, but he only costs 5.5 and he could be your cheap guy instead. His underlying stats are much better than Joao’s, and he’s played fewer mins.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

Estupinian is back.

He came off the bench and played 18 mins. If he starts after the international break then a lot of us will be desperate to get him back in. Remember, his ownership was something like 50% going into the first gameweek last year because his ceiling is so high for a 5.0. If I’m on wildcard gameweek 4, then I would seriously consider him.

Chelsea

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Unlike Brighton, this is the worst run club in the league. From what I understand they are paying more for Sterling to be on loan at the second-best team in the league. Excellent work guys.

Regardless, Palmer is still elite. Yes, Wolves were suicidal against Chelsea which is where most of his points came from, but he did lay off three excellent passes to Madueke and created the opportunities.

Whilst we are on Madueke, the hype there is crazy. He’s not that good, he just got one hat-trick. Anyway, the only thing limiting Palmer is the shambolic squad.

Nkunku has been a huge disappointment, simply because he doesn’t start consistently.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

With Chelsea failing to sign Osimhen, Jackson is pretty much nailed on for the forward spot. He can be frustrating to own as he misses some sitters. But, for 7.6 you get a guy that got 20 returns from 31 starts and 2,800 minutes last year. I love that.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

And it comes full circle. We don’t really know who the nailed eleven is besides Palmer.

Crystal Palace

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

We told you not to sell him. Eze’s takes so many shots, and is just generally involved in everything for Palace. That’s not always great for the team, but is good for the fantasy managers.

Okay, its probably a bit harsh to compare Kamada to Olise… but he isn’t anywhere near the same player, and I think that makes Mateta a worse pick.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

I knew that Munoz’s underlying stats weren’t that great from last year, but I was intrigued because of his positioning (mega far forward) and the good fixtures. Well, we fluked an assist and the defence isn’t that great. Maybe he is just less good without Olise. I wouldn’t pick him up right now, but he’s also not an urgent sell.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

I picked Henderson in goal because he was nailed and Palace had good starting fixtures. Well, they’re currently the 6th worst defence in the league. Frustrating.

Everton

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

I’m genuinely confused how this team finishes the season so strong defensively and then becomes this bad.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

But then, we know they have no money and an increasingly ageing squad. Maybe this is their level?

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

Maybe they will be better with Branthwaite back. They can’t look much worse.

Fulham

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

I’ve been writing this piece over several days, and one of those days I saw a post on reddit that said: I’m ready for Adama to hurt me again. Don’t do it. He’s genuinely a bad player.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Unlike Adama, I think Smith Rowe and Muniz are actually good picks. We know both have good pedigree, and they have started the season reasonably well.

Ipswich

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

A game against Liverpool doesn’t help, but these guys have the worst defence in the league according to xGC right now. That doesn’t mean much after three games, but it does confirm what we expected.

Leicester

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

The fact that he rose in price is hilarious. Faes is only useful as bench fodder or your fifth defender.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Liverpool

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Salah is immensely good and yes, he is worth the extra money over these other guys. He’s always involved. Jota and Diaz are excellent but won’t match Mo. I’d still rather take Jota over Diaz, because he is playing out of position as a striker.

Alexander-Arnold is probably their second best asset, and suuuuper unfortunate not to have a return. Robertson is probably the least impressive asset of the lot. Not that he hasn’t looked good in the easier fixtures, but he was a lot deeper against Man United and that will probably happen against the better teams in general. Whereas Trent is just permanently threatening in attack, and us non-owners have been very lucky.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

I’ve talked about how wonderful Jota and Diaz are, but if you look below I talk about the threat of rotation with Champions League coming up, so I am genuinely curious if Szoboszlai will end up as the best of the rest pick.

Since Konate came off the bench against Ipswich he has looked brilliant. At 5.0 he might be really good value. However, Klopp did not play him consistently, presumably because he can’t cope with playing twice in a week. Slot could be of the same view.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

And, as previewed above, will Darwin and Gakpo start rotating in to start when the Champions League starts?

Man City

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

I’m not sure I need to say more about Haaland.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Phil Foden still hasn’t started a game. He missed international duty for what is probably one of those fake injuries people find they have when asked to play for their country in pointless games. He is probably gonna start soon, but I am still selling this guy if I own him

I’ve enjoyed watching Doku. He’s super attacking and his dribbling is brilliant. But, it’s just not turning into anything. His xGI per 90 is fine, but he’s been subbed before 70 mins two out of three games. I’d get rid if I had him.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

Man City have continued their defensive form from last year. They somehow seem to concede a goal against poor teams. They have the lowest xGC in the league, so I can only assume that they get better, but maybe there is just something in the system or the personnel that makes them concede low xG chances.

Man Utd

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

If you own B. Fernandes then you have been unlucky. He looks good and his underlying numbers are good. Hold.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Ignore this Liverpool performance. I think with Ugarte and de Ligt they will be better defensively this year.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

However, it is very hard to ignore this Liverpool performance. Ten Haag took Ajax to a Champions League semi-final so he must be a good coach. However, he seems to set this team up so poorly.

Newcastle

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Isak showed how dangerous he is this last week by doing a Haaland, and touching nothing but a shot on goal that he scored. I have no worries about his ability, and with no Champions League football this year I think he could be one of those guys to hold.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

I think Barnes and Gordon look good as part of the front three for Newcastle. Barnes’ xGI is massively better than Gordon’s at the moment, but that’s probably a short-term thing. I think they will both offer value at times this year.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

As I said above, a lack of champions league football (and fatigue) could make these guys a stalwart of your team all year. It would be particularly helpful for us to know if Trippier is on the way out, as I think Livramento could be a valuable option when they have good fixtures.

Notts Forest

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

Okay, yeah I’m joking, but Wood has been really good again this year. At some point we might need to accept he is the starting forward and okay to play.

Known Unknowns – Things that we don’t know to be true but are aware of:

Kind of self-explanatory. Ward-Prowse is a set piece specialist. It makes me slightly nervous for Gibbs-White as he might lose penalties but I doubt it.

Southampton

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

They looked really weak against the press and have one of the worst defences in the league right now.

Spurs

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Spurs feel like one of those teams who have changed the least since last year. Angeball continues to be relentlessly attacking, which Porro is benefiting from in terms of his attacking threat. But, as last season, it looks like they will struggle to keep clean sheets.

And yeah, Son is Son and Maddison is Maddison.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

I think we will all own Solanke at some point. He looked like he fit in really well in the little time he has had.

West Ham

Known Knowns – Things that we know to be true:

Obviously, Bowen is a fantastic pick and a guy you can have and hold for a looong time.

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

So far, the defence hasn’t looked all that great. Lopetegui made Wolves better defensively and I think he will make West Ham better too.

Wolves

Unknown Knowns – Things we think that we know to be true:

They have been woeful so far, and perhaps part of that is losing Kilman to West Ham. But they have also conceded 5 more goals than their xG suggests they should have.

 

That’s It.

In conclusion, the first three gameweeks have given us plenty to think about, but it’s important to remember that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Some trends will hold, while others may prove to be fleeting.

We’ve seen key patterns emerge, such as Arsenal’s solid defence and the potential double-up between Salah and Haaland dominating, but there are still plenty of unknowns. Teams like Aston Villa and Chelsea leave us with more questions than answers, and the fixture pile-up for some clubs adds another layer of unpredictability.

As ever in FPL, stay flexible, trust the data, and don’t overreact—it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

 

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