FPL Gameweek 5 Preview: Best Fixture Runs, Transfer Tips, Captaincy

James here with you Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Gameweek 5 preview.

In this piece I will be looking at all the usual stuff in FPL: best upcoming fixtures, transfer tips and captaincy picks.

But first, I want to look at midweek Carabao and European football and take a look at the rotation prone City team and whether we should still target Hull.

And, just in case you missed it, check out Joe’s excellent review of last gameweek here.

Let’s get into it.

Friday Deadline!

Before we do midweek ball that we don’t get points for, just a reminder that it is Friday deadline again this week. That’s 18:30 UK time and may be different in your timezone so make sure you get any moves in before then.

Non-FPL Midweek Football

This midweek we have eleven matches with 15 premier league teams playing. Some in the EFL/Carabao Cup and some in Europa. Hopefully you can tell which ones are which from the below…

Overall, I am not reading much into any of the Carabao Cup games. It’s clear that nobody is taking this competition seriously right now given the amount of second string teams we have seen so far this week.

If you want to hear our thoughts on the games not covered here, be sure to sign up to the mailing list.

Man City Madness

After the exit of the rotator in chief Pep Guardiola, many of us were hopeful that we would see a more regular starting eleven with many players playing 90. But, that’s not happening under Enzo Maresca.

So, I’m basically back in my mindset of not really trusting any of them besides Haaland to play 90.

I even dropped Anderson on wildcard just because Bouaddi might take 15 mins off him per game and I want him to play 90 every week to get those defcons.

This week, we are presented with a new City dilemma.

Just Sell Foden

Going into gameweek 3 I was considering him for my team based on two 80+ minute appearances but Foden’s been benched and then sent off – lucky avoid by me.

He is now suspended for two premier league games (and a Carabao cup match).

Just sell him.

Cherki is a HOLD for One, maybe Two Weeks

I already got in trouble on Reddit for saying I would sell Cherki last week after his minutes didn’t look secure.

He went off at half time last week which I could take a victory lap on but I think that only happened because they were down to ten men so I won’t.

Now, I think you should hold him because Foden can’t come off the bench for him and that makes his minutes slightly more secure. I’d at least wait this week to see.

Continue to Target Hull

Hull are currently 3rd in the premier league having only conceded twice with three clean sheets – tied for first in the league on clean sheets with the reigning champions.

But, I will still target them for the time being.

As covered in Joe’s review, I agree it’s time to start thinking about whether we should target them because of their performance. They play a lot of the game with eleven men behind the ball and are tough to break down.

However, it’s a small sample size right now of actual performances. Their xGC is 5.95 which puts them as the 9th worst/11th best defence in the league – far behind Arsenal in first but decent middle of the pack to be fair to them.

We should always be re-assessing view points like these but after four games I’m not convinced that the story has been told.

FPL Gameweek 5 Best Upcoming Fixture Runs

As always, we’ll look at both attacking and defensive runs from our very own, completely free fixture ticker.

I’m using the absolute fixture ticker here, which doesn’t factor in team quality, just the strength of the opposition. I think that’s useful because it highlights the ‘lesser’ teams where FPL transfers might be a bit more likely. We also have a ticker on the site that shows the relative best upcoming fixtures, and that’s where you’ll see Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and those sides start to dominate. 

Best Attacking Fixtures from FPL Gameweek 5

And once again Newcastle top the ticker. If you’re a member, you can see the hop-on/hop-off tracker doesn’t like them that much after that. I don’t mind a move for Barnes or Wissa right now, just be ready to hop off again soon after (around GW7). 

Then we have Fulham. I don’t mind a move for them this week, United’s defence ain’t great, but obviously you really want their players for their back-to-back-to-back promoted team run. Gonzalo or maybe King are probably your best options.

Everton are not as boring and defensive as you might expect them to be based on long-term trends. I don’t love any of their midfielders for attacking returns but you could convince me to take a short-term punt on Dewsbury-Hall. Garner is back fit and is a long-term hold because of his ability to DefCon that I like. I think Barry is currently the best pick. He’s super cheap and currently has the 3rd most shots per/90 in the league, and third most xG per 90 in the league too. Of course, a second ago I told you about the small sample size but the fixtures plus this have me interested and he is actually in my team.

I have seen a couple of content creators say that Brentford’s fixtures aren’t that good but as you can see, our ticker has them fifth. I have Schade in draft so I can’t be too upset but I am annoyed with myself for getting carried away with my love for O. Dango at the start of the season that I didn’t have him. I still like Schade as a pick. I’m less convinced on Thiago but that’s mainly because of the price tag.

And, I’ve extended our normal five team ticker just so I can talk about how great Gibbs-White is ahead of his game to Coventry. He’s so integral to their attack and been pretty darn good for a few years now so I like that pick. Delap is also interesting I just think you have better options at forward for a similar price listed above. Great if you have someone who can rotate in in gameweek 7 though.

Best Defensive Fixtures from FPL Gameweek 5

As is hopefully obvious, I have also extended out this list because I don’t trust any of Coventry, Ipswich or Hull defensively – great bench options and maybe to fill in for a week but not to play consistently.

So, let’s talk about the rest. I still like Newcastle defence for these games, even if I am concerned more broadly, and Hall and Thiaw are obvious options – the former for attacking returns, the latter for defcons.

Fulham are interesting after the United game maybe. But they haven’t been exactly solid at the back, except bizarrely against Liverpool. Castagne is probably the best pick for cleans because he has been subbed at about 60 mins twice. Andersen was a defcon beast last year but didn’t play against Liverpool last week and played midweek so I’m a bit apprehensive there.

Man City are a good defence (currently second best on xGC) I just don’t like the price tag for limited picks like Guehi and Ruben. Gvardiol is probably the best of the lot of them but for how long will O’Reilly just sit on the bench? I don’t know.

Brentford are a clear avoid for me defensively until after the Liverpool game.

Finally, Palace’s defence is a bit shaky. I don’t know what’s happened to Canvot but assume there is a backroom spat. So, I think I would only go for Mitchell or Khalaili who offer some attacking threat to counter-balance the weak defensive numbers (currently the worst team in the league on xGC). In general, I just don’t think I would go there right now though.

FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips

In this section, I pretend that you are asking me ‘should I buy/sell this player?’ and offer my advice, normally on players I haven’t covered above in fixtures.

As always, wait as late as possible in case any of these guys get injured midweek.

Should I Buy?

• Rogers – Maybe. I’d rather have the next man on this list right now because of the Coventry game but I still think he’s an excellent pick and unlike Joe I am not too concerned about the fixtures. That’s because Chelsea are an excellent attack, with little fixture congestion and their defence is woeful so they will always need to attack games.

• Gibbs-White – Yes. I talked about him above but I really like him so I am gonna do it again. Grabbing him ahead of Coventry at home feels great to me. The only frustrating thing is he plays Arsenal in gameweek 7.

• Gross/De Cuyper – No. Don’t chase last week’s points. Gross/De Cuyper goes up against the best defence in England, maybe the world this week.

• Gvardiol – Maybe. He seems nailed in a great defence but I still fear rotation with O’Reilly at some point – do you want that headache? He’s got 3 attacking returns of 0.3xGI this season so far – he’s an excellent finisher but not this good. He’s also nowhere near DefCons. He’s not for me basically but I can’t say he’s a bad pick.

• Belloumi – No. I don’t trust that he or Hull are good and he’s way overperformed so far this season.

• Joao Pedro – Yes. Assuming he isn’t injured (there are some rumours that he didn’t train) I don’t see a second forward better than him in the game.

• Konsa – Yes. I think he is nailed at 4.5 in the best defence in the league.

• Tavernier – Maybe. Another one where I like the pick but I like him better in a couple of weeks time.

• Odegaard – Maybe. Even in his reduced mins he is hitting his underlyings (2 attacking returns from 2.3 xGI). As Joe covered in the review, Arsenal look back to their attacking best and I am okay with having a less than 90 min guy like him because of the price. BUT, and it’s a big but, I’m not sure he’s in the top 3 of Arsenal assets to own, particularly when there are SO many good mids. And, his average mins are 76.25 per game so far this season with European football only likely to make that worse. If he misses 15 mins a game then by game 6 he has missed a full 90 – and the most productive 15 mins in football. I’m torn, I truly love him as a player though.

• Tarkowski – Yes. I wrote in pre-season about how overlooked this guy was/is. I’ve owned him all season. Don’t expect much in attacking terms but clean sheets and the most consistent DefConner. Having said all that, I am tempted to hop off him after the next two to a guy like Muhamerovic who is smashing DefCon.

• Raya – No. Unless you’re on wildcard, just stick to your Verbruggen/Kinskey rotation – it’s not worth a transfer.

• Calafiori – Yes. He won’t get 2 attacking returns every 4 games but he plays for the best defence in the league, looks nailed and is way cheaper than Gabriel.

Should I Sell?

• Szoboszlai – No. He’s right about where I would expect him to be. Not setting the world alight just steadily ticking over. He’s 14th among midfielders for xGI per 90 right now and has other routes to points too. I am slightly concerned that he’s getting fewer mins at 10 and fewer mins at RB so he doesn’t have great open threat or defcon numbers but I am not absolutely convinced he is worth a transfer this week.

• Elanga – Yes. If he’s injured then he’s an easy switch to Barnes if you want those Newcastle fixtures. Just wait for news if you can.

• Shaw – Yes. Missed a game, possibly injured and United are crap defensively.

• B. Fernandes/Mbeumo – No. Fulham have let up a lot of goals so far this season. Give them another week then reassess.

• Tzolis – Maybe. He’s not in the top three in terms of Arsenal assets that I would choose to have but he’s still a good pick. I’m not sure its worth a transfer but I’m also not sure who your transferring him to so wouldn’t be 100% against it.

• Porro – Yes. If he’s injured he’s gotta go. Wait for news though.

• Isak – Yes. I don’t like the price tag for a Forward who is not on pens and will need to play in Europe too. I think his minutes will be managed significantly after the IB. If Liverpool ever go two ahead relatively early on, he will get subbed (e.g. Ipswich in GW3).

• Thiago – Maybe. His underlyings are actually pretty similar to Joao Pedro’s. But, he has 0 returns instead of 6. I do like JP more of course, and that straight swap is available to you. But, I’d be tempted to wait a week and see what he can do against Chelsea’s currently woeful defence.

• White – Yes. If he’s injured it’s a given. 

• Wissa – No way. He’s been awful the last two games and been playing 10 or deeper at times. But, he could have nicked one off the keeper last week and then nobody would be talking about selling him before two fixtures against two promoted sides.

Erling Haaland’s Captaincy Corner

I currently have the armband on Haaland but I don’t own Bruno Fernandes who I think is probably the best option. Sunderland did a good job holding up the new attacking Arsenal last weekend whereas Fulham have shown they can concede big (e.g. in the first game against Chelsea).

I don’t see many other obvious options besides maybe Isak away to Bournemouth. Bournemouth play quite open which can make watching them fun but I also just think they are good at football so its not a game I particularly want to target.

If you wanna do something differential it would be Gibbs-White against Coventry that would interest me. Did I mention I like Gibbs-White?

That’s It.

Hopefully that’s enough for you but if you want to ask any questions or call me an idiot, head on over to Reddit. 

Don’t forget to sign up to the mailing list for our final thoughts ahead of the deadline.