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Greetings all, and welcome to your comprehensive FPL Gameweek 4 roundup.
You’ve got Old Joe on deck this week, casting his (/my… I don’t tend to refer to myself in the third person, I promise) beady eye over all the happenings from the extended weekend.
We’ve got a hell of a lot to get through, so let’s get straight to it, shall we? Here are the main FPL takeaways from every single Gameweek 4 matchup.
xG: 2.55 – 0.79
This was a fantastic game to watch. Bournemouth were definitely better, but the two teams were very well matched overall, and – as with last season – should be upper-mid table sides who are basically always tough to play.
The Bournemouth attack looked excellent. They don’t seem to have missed a beat with Iraola leaving, playing the same direct, fast, attacking football as in the last couple of seasons.
Tavernier was particularly impressive. He’s super direct, aggressive in his shooting, and gets in great positions even when he doesn’t have the ball. He’s scored in 3 games already this season, and is very good value at 6.1. He only got 7 goals last season, but it’s hard to see him not blowing past that this year.
I’d also be fine getting him in right now – the fixtures look scary on paper, but Liverpool’s defence has been up and down to say the least, and Chelsea’s has been atrocious.
Evanilson linked up well, but continues to offer absolutely no goal threat (0.00xG in this game, and 0 goals across the season). Scott was brilliant, but there’s no way you’re taking him over Tavernier at exactly the same price.
I don’t really fancy the defence. They can’t keep a clean sheet, or even a lead, to save their lives. That said, Silva has hit on DefCons in 3/4 games so far, and his passing was good in this game, so I could see him picking up a few assists with linebreaking passes Senesi-style.
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Brentford were second-best here, but still competed well. I still think we have to have them ranked as a tricky matchup at both ends.
Thiago fought hard but struggled here. I’d still hold him for the excellent Chelsea matchup if you’ve stuck with him this long, but bin him after that.
Like Tavernier on the other end, Schade was by far Brentford’s most dangerous player, and James is still kicking himself for picking Dango to start the season instead.
He and Tavernier are neck and neck for me near the top of that 6.0ish midfielder price bracket. I’d narrowly prefer Tavernier since I prefer the fixtures and think the attack is better overall.
xG: 1.09 – 2.79
Villa are easily one of the best defensive matchups in the league right now. At least they finally managed to score here… that also takes them up to 1 goal in 4 games across the season. We’d hoped Jackson might spice things up… well, he was so bad in this game that he got hooked at half-time, so apparently not!
As an attacking matchup, I haven’t got a clue. They got battered by Brighton, defended well against Arsenal, cleaned against Hull, and gave up 2 goals on a lot of xG here.
Overall, I’d have no interest in any of their players, am definitely fine to defend against them, and am fine to attack against them too.
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Forest have been similarly inconsistent overall, losing twice in 3 days to Leeds, doing well against Liverpool, getting sucked into the vortex of mediocrity against Spurs, then playing well again here. Overall I’d rank them as a solid mid table team, and wouldn’t really target them on either end.
Delap is the main story coming out of this one. He played his first full 90 for them, looked dangerous and aggressive, and probably could’ve had more than one return. I’d really struggle to pick between him and Barry in that 5.5ish budget forward bracket. We’ve seen him do it before in the Prem – 12 goals in 2.5k mins, in 24/25 – so if he’s actually good again he could be a real bargain.
Regarding Munoz Watch – he didn’t return here, but he did get his first start, played a full 90, and had 7 DC’s, 5 key passes, and 2 shots. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, at a reasonable 5.4.
xG: 1.21 – 1.80
We could basically just copy and paste the same analysis for Chelsea every week. Great attack, shocking defence.
I’m sure everyone’s going to load up on some combination of JP/Rogers/Palmer – if not all 3 – but a note of caution on their fixtures. So far they’ve had Fulham’s poor defence, Brighton (fine), Arsenal (very low xG against them), and Hull (almost certainly worse than their results suggest). Basically all of their next 8 fixtures (maybe barring Bournemouth at home) are against pretty solid defences.
They’re probably good enough to score anyway, but I wouldn’t triple up on them (and Palmer would definitely be my odd man out).
Defensively they are embarrassing. They’re one of the best teams in the league to target with attacking players right now.
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Who knows how long the Hull thing will last, or how we judge them.
History suggests they’ll at least stay up after this start… but they could still end up as one of the worst teams in the league.
They have done brilliantly so far, and could’ve won this game, but I still wouldn’t get any of their players, since the bottom could fall out at any point. As a matchup, I still wouldn’t exactly fear them, but – for your attackers, say – they’re not quite up there on the Coventry/Chelsea level of teams to absolutely target right now.
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xG: 0.94 – 2.03
As usual with an early red, we can’t really read much into this game.
Khalaily might be worth keeping an eye on. 0.72xG last week, and a goal this week. He’s literally just playing the ridiculously attacking Munoz role, which obviously we love in FPL, and he’s only 5.0 (cheap in today’s game).
Ipswich might not be terrible – they certainly spent enough money in the summer. But – similarly to Hull – it’s too early to say, and we’ll continue to have them ranked as one of the better matchups until further notice.
xG: 1.80 – 0.92
Even if it looked like a plum matchup, I’d probably write this off as a bad day at the office for Liverpool’s attack, rather than anything more dramatic. They had scored 2 goals in every game (including against Atleti) coming into this one.
That does make it back to back cleans in the league… but I’m yet to be convinced. Those came against Ipswich and Fulham, which are likely two of the worst attacks. They’ve now got an absolutely brutal run defensively – Bournemouth, City, Brentford, Brighton, Arsenal – so bin any and all defenders immediately.
I didn’t like Szboszlai before the season, and certainly haven’t changed my mind. His one attacking return was a ridiculously late pen, and he hasn’t exceeded 4pts since. I’d take the likes of Tavernier or Schade over him, for a million less, in a heartbeat.
xG: 0.74 – 1.60
Yuk.
The Spurs defence at least seems to be better, making me look slightly less stupid for backing them defensively in the preseason. Their cleans haven’t come against particularly strong opposition – Forest and Everton – but they now have a couple more plum matchups in Villa and Coventry, either side of Man U away.
Van Hecke is the pick of the bunch, if you do want a defender, especially with Porro injured. 13 DefCons here, for back-to-back 8 pointers.
The attack is abysmal. Technically they’re midtable in xG/game, on 1.44… but that doesn’t really matter when you haven’t got anyone who can actually stick the ball in the net. They’re one of the best defensive matchups around right now.
James’s beloved (he’s genuinely obsessed) Maddison finally came on, for all of 13mins. If they can ever get him fit again, perhaps they finally start scoring some goals, but that feels like a big ‘if’ all round right now.
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Everton keep noodling along, with their lacklustre attack and solid defence. I suspect they’ll be like this for much of the season, which is pretty easy to plan for in FPL – they’re good to defend against, and not so great to attack.
An obligatory weekly shoutout to our Defensive Lord and Saviour, His Holiness James Tarkowski. He’s now returned (including cleans) in 3/4 weeks, has hit DC’s twice already, and hasn’t had lower than 8 DC’s in any fixture. And now he gets to play Ipswich and Hull!
Speaking of DC’s – Garner played his first full 90 of the season, and immediately put up 17 of them. I loved him before the season – for when he got fit again, obviously – for his DefCon/set pieces combo, and he’s absolutely on my watchlist.
Finally, I keep saying Barry is a good pick, and he keeps not returning. But I continue to maintain that he is! He had another 5 shots here, for 0.68 xG. That’s 14 shots in only 4 games. Only 8 players last season had more than 3 shots per 90, and he’s currently at 3.5. The goals will come… eventually.
xG: 2.07 – 1.99
I was actually very impressed with Sunderland. Like most people I thought they’d struggle this season, but after being caught out by Ipswich on the opening weekend they’ve been solid. They fought super aggressively here, and I’d rank them as one of the tougher teams to attack right now.
(I don’t think much of their attack though, and it’s time to bin Brobbey if you haven’t already).
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I also thought Arsenal were very good, yet again, against tough opposition.
Their defence continues to look better than ever. Including the Man City Community Shield game, that’s 1 goal conceded in their first 6 games now.
Konsa stood up well to a tough physical challenge against Brobbey, and looks nailed for that spot now. All aboard! White inevitably got injured, with Timber coming on for him. I assume that means Timber will start going forward, but there’s no point going near him at 6.5 when you can have Konsa and Calafiori so much cheaper. I also wish I could afford Raya in goal, who was phenomenal yet again, but sadly I can’t.
As against Villa, the attack also looked pretty nice in a tough matchup. Odegaard was particularly good, even if he didn’t return, and Saka now has 3 goals in 4 matches.
Overall they’re clearly the best team in the league right now, obviously the hardest attacking matchup, and one of the worst defensive matchups too. Triple up on them sooner rather than later.
xG: 1.05 – 2.77
To an extent, the red card nullifies our takeaways from this game… although Coventry were already 2 goals down when that happened (that said, the xG was dead even in the first half).
They’ve now lost all 4 games, with an aggregate score of 10-0. Not great. I will also say that they’ve faced Arsenal, Man City, and Brighton already though – 3 of the best attacks in the league. So, they might not be this bad… but probably are pretty bad.
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Obviously everyone is piling on Gross right now, particularly as he’s confirmed on pens. I will kindly remind you that he plays Arsenal this week. While anything can happen, the most likely outcome is a blank. He has some tough upcoming matchups after that as well – Sunderland away, City away, and Liverpool away (to a lesser extent).
I do think Brighton are a very good team. I would not get any of their players before this run of fixtures.
xG: 0.94 – 1.14
Leaving aside the fact that this entire era of Premier League football could end up having a giant asterisk over it…
Man U started brilliantly, then were obviously absolutely shocking after the red card. For all the real-world hullabaloo, however, I wouldn’t read too much into this for FPL purposes. City are probably the second-best team in the league, it was a derby, the red card changed the game completely – none of it would influence my thinking on Man U going forward.
I would continue to have no interest in their defence. Their highest scoring defensive player (including the keeper) is Maguire on 8pts. For comparison, Tarko alone already has 29pts. They’ve got 2 nice defensive fixtures now, but I wouldn’t trust them to clean against anyone.
The attack has obviously been inconsistent to say the least. I still think Mbeumo is fine – he’s a quality player, nailed, and his underlying stats have been good in every game except Everton (… when he scored a good goal).
I didn’t want Bruno to start the season, but if you trusted him then I don’t really see why you wouldn’t now. They got caught out in the first game, he exploded in the second, then they played two good defences back to back. His next five fixtures are fine. I don’t think he’s worth the money now any more than I did in the preseason, but I wouldn’t actively be panicking and selling him.
I would bin Cunha if you’ve still got him. He just hasn’t looked good, didn’t again here, and obviously they’ve got Sesko waiting in the wings (not that he covered himself in glory here either).
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Yet another red card means I once again have to say we can’t read anything into the City performance. They bizarrely played better with 10 men – not only defensively, but going forward too.
It was encouraging to see Cherki get the start, and his half-time hook had nothing to do with performance. Ndiaye was benched, but who knows if that was matchup-dependent – I’d generally stay away indefinitely regardless. Semenyo did absolutely nothing, but he’s the only non-Haaland attacker we can say is definitely nailed right now, so I’ll be holding and hoping he actually starts scoring again.
Defensively they are tempting. Back to back cleans, and now they have Sunderland home, Ipswich home, and Villa’s crap attack in their next four games. Gvardiol and Guehi (who was excellent) both seem nailed, and between them you just take the cheaper Gvardiol. Ruben has also played every minute so far, but I’d… guess, just about, that he’s the most likely to lose his place to O’Reilly… probably?!
xG: 2.29 – 0.79
The most unexpected result of the weekend, for this guy. I’d liked the look of Newcastle to start the season, so Leeds sticking four past them is pretty impressive.
Overall, Leeds probably are actually quite good. After beating a decent Forest team twice they’ve also got 1-1s against Brentford and Brighton – both good sides – then stuffed Newcastle. They have to be somewhere in that mid-tier, ‘you’re not terrified to play them but you’re not targeting them either’ pack.
DCL obviously had a nice game, and fair play to you if you kept the faith. The fixtures do get harder regardless now though, so I’d keep him for Palace at home, then Arsenal away in GW6 feels like the perfect time to move on.
Bogle will obviously be one of the most-bought players this week. He’s only 4.5, and has scored in back to back games, amassing a ridiculous 29pts in the process. He’s actually the highest-scoring defender right now – I’ll admit, I didn’t have that on my preseason predictions.
He does get in the box a lot, so these returns haven’t necessarily been fluky. I don’t love him bringing him in as an actual starter just before he plays Arsenal, Man U, and Bournemouth, but as a budget defender on a wildcard he’s fine.
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This was probably just a bad day at the office for Newcastle, but there were a few squad matters worth noting.
Elanga was injured here, so Murphy started instead. Fernandez-Pardo got his first stop, playing with Wissa behind him. He looked out of his depth, but it was only his first game, so let’s keep an eye on that one. Dedic was fit to start, but came off after 58mins – I’d definitely have Hall ranked ahead of him right now. Nico went off early with a concussion. It was all happening in that Newcastle squad, I tell you!
Wissa has been disappointing recently, with only one shot in his last two games. He also plays Hull and Coventry back to back now though, so obviously don’t sell him.
Phew, that was a big one. Now I know how all the Bournemouth and Brentford players felt after their utterly exhausting battle on Saturday. It’s exactly the same thing, really.
Hopefully, you learnt at least a smidgeon – an iota is all I ask! – from this Gameweek 4 review. Either way, keep an eye out for James’s Gameweek 5 preview in the next day or two, and to get that and everything else hot off the press, you can chuck us a follow on Reddit.
Cheers for reading, everyone!
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