Well, the Fantasy Premier League season was just getting rolling… and now of course we’ve got a stupid international break. Look forward to forgetting what your pre-break master plan was, and – probably – one or two injuries.
So, let’s enjoy our usual love/hate relationship with FPL while we can! Here’s your full Gameweek 4 preview.
Top Talking Points
Brighton Fixtures Turn!
After a relatively easy start to the season, Brighton’s fixtures turn in gameweek 4. They play Newcastle at home, Man United away, Bournemouth at home, Villa away, Liverpool at home and Man City away in the next six games. Not only this, but they’ll start playing Europa League games soon too.
I’d be shocked if they keep more than one clean sheet in this run. Defensively, Brighton have looked pretty poor. With Estupinian, we are reliant on attacking returns. He’s almost certainly not going to get these against Newcastle and Man City. So, I think it’s legitimate to consider selling him. For what it’s worth, I think I will keep him and rotate him a bit.
Likewise, I think it is fine to sell Mitoma and March. And if you are going to do it, this week is probably the best time. Newcastle are super-solid defensively. Mitoma is the talisman at Brighton and highly-owned, so he’s probably a bit harder to sell ,but I still like the upside-chasing of getting rid of him.
Brighton Replacements
For Estupinian, it will probably all depend upon who else is in your defence, and who you can rotate to. See below on “what to do with defenders?”
As for the midfielders, Sterling is the standout option for me if you have a bit of spare cash. The fixtures are great, he looks like the main man at Chelsea, and we know his pedigree.
I also very much like Maddison. This guy is his team’s main man at the moment. He’s involved in basically all Spurs attacking moves, and he’s bloody good at it.
Mbeumo is also a great option. On penalties and playing very attacking. The only reason I am put off by him is that he plays Newcastle the week after FPL Gameweek 4. And I hate playing Newcastle.
Of course, if you have bags of cash and can get up to a Fernandes or Odegaard then I don’t mind that either. It’s just kind of annoying that United and Arsenal play each other this week.
What to Do with Defenders?
If you’ve been reading our stuff you know we have been saying that defences generally suck this year (with the exception of City, Newcastle and Palace). Look down the list of top-scoring defenders ahead of FPL Gameweek 4, and it’s pretty much all wing-backs/full-backs with a bit of attacking intent. And that is where I would spend your transfers if you need them.
I like the attacking wing backs on okay defences like Udogie, Cash, Henry. Just try and figure out when you will play which, going forward. I think what you are looking for are teams with bad defences as much as teams with bad attacks. FPL.team is a great site to use to check how your team looks going forward.
The only exceptions here are Trippier and Chilwell who you would probably play regardless of fixture. I don’t hate buying Trips now, but I’d much rather wait two weeks for Newcastle’s great fixture run. As for Chilly, he’d be my priority if I didn’t already own him.
Time to Triple Up on Chelsea?
As you will see when you scroll down, Chelsea are top of our fixture ticker. With options like Chilwell, Sterling and Jackson, is it time to triple up?
My opinion is no.
Whilst Chelsea were good against Luton, they weren’t incredible. Luton are the worst team in the league and Brighton put 4 past them a few weeks ago. Chelsea were a little ropey in the first half against them, were bad against West Ham, and held their own against Liverpool. I just don’t think that’s enough to triple up there yet and put all your eggs in one basket.
There are other options in their price brackets that you can target or keep. For example, I have Watkins and I am happy to run him out against Van Dijk-less Liverpool this week, instead of making the switch to Jackson.
The defence is also not amazing in my opinion. They’re actually the fourth best defence in the league on xGC after 3 games, but eye test wise I am not convinced.
Gusto is just not an option in my opinion. He is a transfer out waiting to happen, as I think Reece James will be back after the international break (before inevitably getting injured again. Having said that, Gusto is an ideal handcuff for James in FPL draft if you own him.
Overall, Chilwell is the Chelsea player I would want the most. He is soooo attacking, relatively cheap and the defence is not bad per se. Then I would take Sterling or Jackson, depending upon where I thought there was weakness in my first eleven.
EFL Cup Fixtures Ongoing
With Chelsea, Forest, Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton still to play you may want to hold those transfers.
Yesterday, Bournemouth, Fulham, Luton, Brentford, Palace and Wolves all advanced to the next round. So, they will have another midweek fixture between gameweek 6 and 7. Most of these played a variation on their Premier League starting eleven which means you shouldn’t be worried about rotation. For example, Wissa and Mbeumo only played 30 mins each.
The most interesting thing was that Fulham knocked Spurs out. Which means they are safe from a midweek fixture (which is good for their long-term prospects). They lost on penalties and Son took the first one which might suggest he is on pens for Spurs going forward. On the other hand, Maddison took the 4th pen which is often a spot you put your top penalty taker in because its a high pressure penalty.
If a team isn’t listed here, its because they get a bye by virtue of playing in Europe.
Strategic Thinking
International Break Incoming!
I hear you all now: “NOOO. It’s too soon!”
I know, I know. Who cares about international football. There are no FPL points to win there.
But, sadly, the international break is coming anyway. So, between Gameweek 4 and Gameweek 5 there will be a two week gap.
To add to the annoyance, a lot of our players will be playing in international games and getting injured, so do your best to save transfers and try and have two free transfers going into Gameweek 5. Of course, more so than ever, you should also hold on making transfers until as late as possible.
It’s also not a bad time to wildcard over an international break, if you think your team needs it.
Don’t worry, we will have some content for you to read over the break, so check back here if you’re FPL obsessed.
Twelve Man Teams?
Traditionally, I have bought the cheapest bench possible and focused on putting all my money on the pitch. This year, money isn’t as much of a factor because it seems like we can afford a lot of good players. I’m starting to think about whether I should introduce a twelfth man into my squad that I’m happy to play, then rotate.
Take my squad now. I don’t really want to play Mitoma at Newcastle. I can afford to sell Trent for Udogie or whichever 4.5 I fancy, and upgrade my 4.5 bench midfielder (Nakamba) to Sterling. So, I could then play Sterling over Mitoma in FPL Gameweek 4.
In Gameweek 5, I could bring Mitoma back in against United. Then I could bench Wissa against Newcastle. United feels fine as an attacking fixture, but I really hate Newcastle.
Etc. etc. etc.
This is not how I would normally play the game, so that makes me nervous. But, if everyone is very affordable, maybe I should try this and see where it gets me. One to ponder for the week!
Upcoming Fixture Ticker
This will be a regular stalwart of our pieces throughout the year. We will look at which teams have the best fixtures over the next five gameweeks to help you plan your transfers.
Teams in capitals are home fixtures, and teams in lowercase are away fixtures.
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Chelsea | NFO | bou | AVL | ful | bur |
| Newcastle | bha | BRE | shu | BUR | whu |
| Everton | shu | ARS | bre | LUT | BOU |
| Luton | WHU | ful | WOL | eve | TOT |
| Palace | WOL | avl | FUL | mun | NFO |
Note that the international break is between gameweeks 4 and 5. And, European football (and rotation) starts between gameweek 5 and 6. This rotation factor is another element that makes your Chelsea and Brentford assets so appealing, since they don’t have this problem…
As you can see, Chelsea sit top of our fixture ticker from FPL Gameweek 4 to to 8. As we say above, we aren’t interested in doubling up on their attack though.
Palace’s defence is a very tasty prospect with this set of upcoming fixtures. I’d be scared to bring Eze in, just because of the concern around him getting transferred to Man City. But, I would certainly hold him if I already owned him. He is the 15th best outfield player in the league for xGI right now, and surely the expected will convert to the actual in these next few games.
Everton aren’t really worth thinking about. Their fixtures just make me feel better about holding Pickford for a bit.
Luton are irrelevant in FPL at the moment. They’ve only had one game and we don’t know if they’re any good (and we think they probably aren’t good). So, we aren’t looking at them.
Injury/Red Card News
We’ll update this in more detail in our News Roundup later in the week.
The most important story for now is that Udogie went off injured in the Spurs game at the weekend.
Ange said: “I think he just kicked the ground from what I understand. He didn’t want to come off but at that stage, the way the rules are at the moment, they go off for 30 secs. I thought it was better putting Ben on and keeping the tempo. Just speaking to him now, he’s fine.”
So, I think he is safe to start, but just keep an eye on it when we’re closer to the deadline.
Less FPL relevant but Varane is likely out for six weeks after the injury he suffered against Forest.
Transfer News
Johnstone is threatened by the purchase of Henderson at Palace. I wouldn’t panic just yet. Let’s wait to see what happens. But, if I owned him I would at least start thinking about an exit strategy.
Castagne joined Fulham and was unveiled as a 4.5 defender. One to watch in future but I doubt we will be interested.
Mattheus Nunes is leaving Wolves for Man City. He’s not an option but it just serves as a reminder that everyone is a rotation risk at City.
Everton has signed Beto from Udinese. He’s not FPL relevant because Everton suck. He could be worth picking up in your draft league if you’re desperate for a forward.
Tierney went to Sociedad. We don’t really care about this… for the sake of completeness, chucked it in anyway.
Should I Buy?
In this section, we will look to answer the most basic question. Should I buy this player ahead of FPL gameweek 4? We’ll be focusing on the most transferred-in players, since they’re probably the ones the majority of people will be interested in.
- Sterling – Maybe
It makes all the sense in the world. He’s an incredibly-proven Premier League player, in good form (passing the eye test even before the Luton game), and has the best upcoming fixtures in FPL.
And yet…
Are we sure the Chelsea attack is for real? Are we overreacting a little bit to one game against the worst team in the league? Are these fixtures as good as we think? Forest are fine defensively (7th-best xGA in the league), Bournemouth aren’t terrible, Villa are good…
He was always going to be a popular pick after his massive game last week. But this isn’t the slam-dunk it first appears.
- Maddison – Yes
I’d be more confident in Maddison than Sterling. He’s passed the eye test in all three games so far, as have Spurs in general. He’s the driving force of the whole attack. He’s already got three returns.
Burnley away is completely fine – Villa smashed them in the first half this week, and Spurs could easily do the same. Sheffield Utd have the fourth-worst xGA in the league. Arsenal away isn’t good, but Liverpool home is fine and Luton after that is the best fixture in the league.
Maddo is an excellent blend of eye test, stats, and fixtures. I’d have no hesitation whatsoever in getting him.
- Gusto – No
As mentioned earlier, Reece James could be back after the international break.
At only 4.1, and with those defensive fixtures, he’s obviously tempting. But you’re just wasting a transfer out a few weeks from now (and his price will drop, when everyone bins him after James’ return).
- Udogie – Yes
No problem at all with this one, presuming – as noted – he’s not injured.
Spurs’ next two fixtures are against the two worst teams in the league for xG. Burnley’s xG is actually less than 1 across their first two games, which is very impressive, and it was easy to see why when watching their game against Villa (full review here).
You’ll probably bench him against Arsenal and Pool, but Luton, Fulham, and Palace after that are all fine.
- Romero – No
Udogie is the same price, and has far better potential for attacking returns.
- Chilwell – Yes
Great defensive fixtures, and heavily involved. Far better value than Trent, and – with their respective fixtures – probably preferable to Trippier too.
- Cash – Not Now
He’s not getting 17pts per week, since unfortunately he can’t keep playing Burnley. I do think his attacking potential is for real, though. He’s basically playing right-wing, and fits Emery’s counter-attacking system well.
That said, the upcoming fixtures are all over the place. Liverpool away, Palace home, Chelsea away, Brighton home, Wolves away… you’ll probably be rotating him heavily, so it’s debatable whether he’s worth the transfer.
From Gameweek 8 onwards, he plays Wolves, West Ham, Luton, and Forest. That’s the time to strike.
- Ward-Prowse – Not Now
JWP has actually quietly been a good FPL asset for a few years now, registering 13, 15, and 15 goal involvements in the past three seasons.
I just wouldn’t bring him in right now. Luton is the best fixture in the league… but he then has City straight after, Liverpool away, then Newcastle after Sheffield Utd.
The same goes for Bowen and Antonio. All these players are fine, especially if Moyes is going fully back to his absorb-and-counter system, but now’s not the time to get them. West Ham’s fixtures get better from around Gameweek 10 onwards.
- Wissa / Mbuemo – Yes
They’re both excellent, and a double-up still feels great. Mbuemo’s penalties make him preferable, but Wissa is the highest-scoring forward right now, and for only 6.2. Their fixtures are fine too.
- Jackson – Meh
Jackson has 9pts so far this season… and is 21% owned. His one goal was against Luton.
As noted above, I’m not sure Chelsea’s fixtures are as amazing as they first appear. I’d much rather have Sterling’s all-round involvement, if you want a Chelsea player. I prefer Wissa as a forward, and probably Awoniyi too, honestly.
Should I Sell?
In this section, we will look to answer the second most basic question. Should I sell this player ahead of FPL gameweek 4? Again, we’ll be honing-in on the most-binned players at the time of writing.
- Shaw – Yes
Injured, and will be out for a while
- Gabriel – Yes
Can’t get in the team, and there are plenty of good options at this price point or cheaper.
- Rashford – Maybe
This is a really tricky one. Clearly United aren’t firing on all cylinders, and now they have Arsenal and Brighton back to back.
He got two ‘assists’ against Forest (one was winning a pen), but didn’t do anything in the previous two games.
He’s obviously got FPL pedigree, and will probably come good at some point. That’s quite a lot of money to be tied-up in someone who’s not at the races, however, especially when there are so many good midfielders this year.
- Joao Pedro – Yes
Everyone rushing for JP was a classic Gameweek 1 overreaction. He’s been benched in both games since, and now Brighton’s fixtures turn.
Get up to Wissa or Awoniyi, or drop him down to Semenyo/Archer at 4.5 and spend the money elsewhere.
- Mitoma – Maybe
It feels risky to drop a 42%-owned player, who already has three returns. But – as noted earlier – Brighton’s fixtures turn now, and they start playing in Europe.
This feels like a good time to get ahead of the curve and move him on, for one of the many other good mids.
- Onana – No
Probably the weirdest appearance on this list.
Onana has already been binned by over 200k managers, at the time of writing. Clearly – unlike you – they don’t know that you shouldn’t be wasting transfers on goalkeepers!
(Yes, he’s expensive at 5.0, but come on – surely you have more important moves to make)
- Martinelli – Maybe
Like Rashford, this is a very tough one. We got both players in for a reason, before the season. Both have gotten off to slow starts. Martinelli did look better against Fulham, but this didn’t result in a return, so he still only has that one (admittedly amazing) assist against Forest.
As an owner, I’m personally holding. Man U at home is usually a crazy game, as is Spurs home two weeks after that. Arsenal also looked much better against Fulham after reverting to their system from last season. If they carry on that way, Martinelli’s future looks a lot brighter.
With all this said, there are cheaper options who are indisputably better right now, like Maddison. I’ve got no problem with selling, I just wouldn’t do it myself.
- Van Dijk – Yes
He’s suspended now, and Liverpool’s defence is poor
- Odegaard – Maybe
Generally speaking, see Martinelli. He’s more expensive, but the same logic applies. I’d hold, but I’ve got no problem with selling.
- Salah – No
Obviously he’s super expensive. And obviously he hasn’t passed the eye test.
But he’s still Mo, and that means that he just gets returns anyway, even when he’s not playing well. His upcoming fixtures are also fine.
I definitely wouldn’t bring him in right now. But I wouldn’t sell him if you’ve got him. As mentioned, it’s not like budget really matters this year anyway.
Captaincy Corner
For FPL gameweek 4, we can’t look past Haaland as captain. AGAIN. Yawn.
Fulham are bad. City are great. Haaland is amazing. It’s that easy.
My Moves
I have Alexander-Arnold and I have decided that I can’t carry his weight anymore. He is currently the 57th best defender in the game… He’s got to go for me.
As I said above, I’ll probably look at one of the cheap 4.5-5.0 attacking wing-backs with good fixtures that rotate well in my team. I think that’s Udogie, who is my main target at the moment. I will consider Mitchell at Palace too.
I will almost certainly use two transfers and bring in Sterling too. I know I said above to try to hold two transfers but I really don’t want to play Mitoma against Newcastle. I would much rather play Sterling. The only question for me is, do I bring Sterling in for my bench midfielder and enact the twelfth man strategy I set out above or straight-swap for Mitoma.
That’s it
We’ll be back with a News roundup ahead of Gameweek 4, closer to the deadline. Check back here on Friday for that, or follow us on Twitter or Reddit.