And so it dawns. Gameweek 38. The end of the season. We’ve got our relegated teams. We’ve got our Champions League teams. We’ve got our Premier League winner (yes I’m an Arsenal fan, yes it should be us, yes I’m bitter). The only thing we haven’t got is our Fantasy Premier League final standings.
This won’t be the final word from Full 90 FPL this season. James and I will be back with our thoughts on the season as a whole soon enough. It is, however, the last of 38 previews in a row.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Final Gameweek Mindset
To be honest, the best place you can be right now is not giving a damn about anything in FPL! Maybe you’ve won your mini league already. Maybe you kissed goodbye to your OR weeks ago. Maybe you’re out of all the cups you cared about.
Either way, if you possibly can just treat Gameweek 38 as a bit of fun, go for it.
Get a player from your favourite team, or someone you just love watching. Take a flyer on someone who wouldn’t normally be an FPL option, but has a nice fixture this week. James took Granit Xhaka in his Arsenal swansong this time last year, Xhaka got him two goals, and he still hasn’t shut up about it.
Many of us still do care. I’m still hoping to get my OR at least into the top 200k (not where I wanted it to start the season, but we are where we are). James is still duking it out in mini leagues and cups.
Even in this situation, this is still a straightforward proposition. There are no consequences beyond this week. We need to think about literally one set of fixtures. Whether or not to take a hit couldn’t be easier to decide – do I think these players will outscore those players enough, in Gameweek 38, to merit the hit? That’s it!
My wider overall message, whatever your circumstances, is just to enjoy this week. This is the last time we’ll do any of this for months. Even when we do restart, everything will be new and confusing and unknown again. Right now, we’ve got 37 gameweeks of stats, trends, and our own learnings from the season to draw on.
So, cringe as it may sound (and there is actual analysis coming)… just have fun!
Breaking News
There’s actually very little news this week. In fact, we have almost no major injuries in general, even as we reach the end of another long campaign.
Here are the few relevant injury updates:
- De Bruyne – In classic fashion, Pep gave us no useful information whatsoever. He’s just going to be ‘assessed’ in training. It feels far too risky to buy him right now. If you’re keeping him, make sure you’ve got a good player at the #1 spot on your bench
- Ederson is confirmed out. If you need a GK replacement, both Raya and Vicario are cheaper, and have nice matchups
- Gordon is another question mark. He took a knock against Man U, and Howe was completely unhelpful in his press conference. As with Kev, make sure you’ve got a good bench player if you’re starting him, or just swap him for Diaz, Olise, Havertz, etc. (more info below)
- Jota is back in training, yet again. Surely there’s no chance he starts though, so I’d be confident with Salah, Gakpo, or Diaz in my team
Final Fixtures
We’ve got four standout fixtures this week. In rough order of my personal preference, these are:
- Spurs vs Sheff U away
- Liverpool vs Wolves home
- Man City vs West Ham home
- Arsenal vs Everton home
The Spurs game is just a dream come true. This is our last chance to exploit one of the worst teams ever to (dis)grace the Premier League. Son’s the obvious pick, I’m fine with Brennan Johnson too, and Porro/VdV are easy shouts for what really should be a clean sheet.
Liverpool aren’t far behind. Wolves are on an awful run, and haven’t kept a clean sheet since 25th February… and that was against Sheffield United. James and I are both trying to work out how to get Salah in. If you can’t get up to him, then Diaz and Gakpo are both fine, depending on whether you want a midfielder or forward. I wouldn’t bother going to the effort of getting Trent – he hasn’t been returning, and Liverpool aren’t keeping cleans at the moment.
Man City are doing their usual late season thing. As an Arsenal fan I’m praying for the 1% chance of a Moyesy Miracle. In reality I’d be shocked if City didn’t win and score at least three goals. Haaland/Foden/Gvardiol feels like the obvious treble right now. Kev is too risky, with the injury questions
An Arsenal defensive double feels like a path to straightforward points. Everton aren’t easy to break down, but they remain pretty easy to defend against. Saka and Havertz are both fairly safe picks, but I’m not positive about their upside against Dyche’s staunch defence – I’d rather target Spurs, Liverpool, and City mids.
—
Aside from these games, there aren’t any fixtures I’m particularly excited by. Unfortunately a lot of the current mediocre teams are playing each other – Forest, Luton, Burnley, Fulham.
Chelsea home to Bournemouth is the only other decent matchup. But you’ve got Palmer already, and I wouldn’t get Jackson in for this if you don’t have him already.
Should I Buy?
For the final time this season, here are the current most-bought players in FPL, along with a quick recommendation as to whether or not they belong in your team.
- Gvardiol – Yes. City have four cleans in their last five, and he’s had excellent attacking returns recently (with underlying stats to back it up)
- Olise – Yes… depending on your situation. He’s not the safest pick, but he’s a fun one, has excellent upside, plays for an excellent attack, and Villa’s defence has been dodgy recently
- Havertz – Maybe. He’s a pretty safe pick, but he has limited upside compared to Spurs mids/Liverpool mids/Olise
- Mateta – Maybe. I like him less than Olise, and would prefer Gakpo if you can afford him. But as with Olise, he’s a fun, high-upside pick
- Foden/Haaland – Obviously yes. Haaland is must-own, Foden is near enough
- Porro – Maybe. He’s just so expensive, and has limited upside compared to a lot of mids and forwards this week. I also prefer Arsenal’s chance at a clean. All that said, an attacking full-back, against the worst team in the league, is obviously not a bad pick
- Son – Yes. Some of the highest upside in the game this week, arguably even more so than Salah
- White – Yes… with the Porro caveat that mids and forwards will have higher upside. If you’re just looking for a defender, he’d be right at the top of the pile
- Odegaard – No. Much prefer Havertz for over a million less
- Raya – Yes… if you really, really want to change your goalkeeper in Gameweek 38 for some strange reason
- Trossard – No. At this price range I’d rather have Olise this week
- N. Jackson – Maybe. He’s been good recently, and Bournemouth at home is a nice fixture. I’m certainly holding as an owner, but would slightly prefer Gakpo if I had neither
- Watkins – No. This is nothing whatsoever about him as a player. But Palace’s defence has been solid recently, it’s an away fixture, and Watkins hasn’t been at his best for a while now
- Salah – Yes. His upside is as high as anyone’s this week. He’s got a team in terrible form, at home, in what could be his last Liverpool game. In short, he’s going to take an absolute ton of shots, and that’s a recipe for success in FPL
- Isak – No. As with Watkins, it’s nothing against him as a player. But there are a couple of question marks (Newcastle being so-so, recent illness, Callum Wilson returning) to make me prefer Jackson or Gakpo
Should I Sell?
Here are the poor unfortunate souls are being jettisoned just before the end of the season:
- Saka – Maybe, though I probably wouldn’t. He’s on pens, he’s super consistent, Arsenal will be going all-out for the win, and if they get anything from this game he’ll probably be involved.
- De Bruyne – Yes. It’s too much money tied up in someone who might not play, when you could have Son, Foden, Havertz, Bruno, Olise, Diaz, etc. all for less money
- Gordon – Maybe. He’s been pretty hardy this season, even when he’s been an injury doubt, and it’s a decent fixture. As noted earlier, I don’t mind keeping and starting him, but you have to have a good player #1 on your bench
- Bruno – Maybe. Could easily have come away from the Newcastle game with more than an assist, and Brighton away is a fine fixture. That said, there are higher upside (and cheaper) options out there
- Schar – Yes, if you need a defensive spot
- Isak – Maybe (see above)
- Solanke – Maybe. Chelsea’s defence isn’t great, he’s been pretty reliable, and this could be a silly, high-scoring game. If you’re going to move him, it should be for someone with genuinely higher upside, because he could absolutely get one goal here
- Son – Absolutely not.
- Garnacho – Yes. Hasn’t returned for weeks, and you can get up to Olise for a little more money
- Pickford – If you must change your keeper this week, then yes, he’s probably not keeping a clean against Arsenal
- Branthwaite – Yes if you’re selling a defender. But I’d rather make moves in other positions for the final week
- Darwin – Yes. I don’t care about the fixture, he’s hardly playing. You can just move him to Gakpo and not think twice about it
- Watkins – Maybe (see above). In general I’d prefer to move a midfielder to get Salah or Son, and just hope he returns against Palace (which is a decent bet)
- Alvarez – Yes. He’s hardly playing, and I wouldn’t waste a forward spot this week, with so many good options
- Diaz/Salah – No to both. It’s an incredible matchup
Captaincy Corner
Even if it is Gameweek 38, it feels like we shouldn’t really mess around here. Haaland, Salah, and Son are all FPL stars with nice fixtures.
We’re basically splitting hairs between the three of them. Based on team and personal form, I’d have Haaland first.
Salah’s form hasn’t been great, but – as noted earlier – this just feels like the perfect storm for him to rack up points. I’d have him second and Son third, but I wouldn’t call you crazy for switching them.
I keep going on about him, but Olise is a fun, high-upside differential captain, at only 2.5% ownership. In the most recent four games he’s started, he’s hit double digits in FPL points three times.
Palmer is as dependable as they come, and will almost certainly return. But he’s normally in the 6-8pt range, so is a pretty boring GW38 captain.
Joe’s Moves
Generally speaking I like my team going into the final week. I set it up when wildcarding a few weeks ago so I’d be in a nice position in Gameweek 38… but annoyingly I don’t think I can get Salah. I’d have to take a -8 to do so, moving Bruno, Gordon, and Isak, to Salah, Olise, and <cheap bench forward, e.g. Morris>.
Which is fine, but I could just start Bruno and get either Olise or Gakpo for Gordon or Isak (for a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2), for no hit at all. Is Salah worth 8pts more than Bruno? I’d love to say yes, since it’ll be exciting to own him for this Wolves game… but no, he’s not.
So, I’m probably going to be a boring loser and make one, measly transfer for no hit. What an exciting end to the season!
Final Thoughts
Well, for the 38th and final time, that’ll do it for this week’s FPL preview.
On behalf of myself and James, thanks for reading, and for the occasional nice messages on Reddit. Both are much appreciated!
Also on behalf of myself and James, I’ll drop one last obligatory plug for that Reddit profile, and our Twitter page too.
As noted, we’ll be back with some post-season reviews. Until then, I hope you finish the season strong, unless you happen to be in a mini league with me, in which case I hope your team crashes and burns.
Thanks again for reading, everybody!