Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 38 is almost here, and that means the FPL season is nearly over.
With my own FPL team I am on the beach, having wrapped up my main mini league weeks ago. So, I am full here for you all!
Naturally, we won’t be doing fixtures and the usual this week. Instead, in this FPL Gameweek 38 preview, we will look at:
- Different scenarios – are you still in with a shout at winning your league? Or should you give up?
- Teams and Fixtures to Target
- Some Good and/or Popular Player Moves
But first…
Feedback Wanted
Joe and I are super grateful to all of you who read our ramblings. We are starting to think about what we do next year to make Full 90 FPL even better. So, if you have ideas, then we want to hear them.
Just bear in mind there are only two of us, and we aren’t smart enough to code an AI tool that makes your transfers for you.
We will start this week by trying out a new, two post a week strategy. This should give you some more time to ponder, whilst also remaining accurate and up-to-date.
If you’ve got any suggestions or feedback at all, please comment on this post, or hit us up on Reddit (via DM, or commenting on a post).
Right, let’s get into it!
Scenario Planning
The standard advice for any FPL gameweek, whether it is the first or the last, is to buy players that score points. But it’s not a bad idea to think about how to get ahead or stay ahead in your final game of the season.
Basically this next section is a spectrum of fun to serious and back to fun – if you’re miles behind you can have fun, if you’re in a fight you need to be serious, and if you’re miles ahead you can have some more fun.
So, what should you do in FPL gameweek 38?
If You’re Chasing
If you’re more than 25 points behind, it’s time to give up.
Instead of pursuing your goal, just have some fun and buy a player that you want. It’s possible that you could catch 25 points behind in one gameweek… but it’s very, very unlikely.
If you’re 10-25 points behind, I think it’s unlikely that you can win your league.
However, it’s not in the realms of impossible, so I would try and have fun but also have an eye on a player that you’re opponent does not have. One year, I won my mini league on the final day of the season by buying Granit Xhaka for his final appearance for Arsenal. We all know he’s capable of scoring and assisting (just look at his record for his national side) but it was a punt and it paid off.
If you’re only ten points behind or less, then you are very much still in the hunt.
Try and identify who your opponent is going to captain and captain someone else. Or, try and grab someone that they don’t have with your free transfer. For example, if they have Mbeumo, then you buy Bowen for that slot. Try to avoid hits – this advice is almost always true or always valuable, but in a one week shootout, putting yourself 4 points behind before a ball has even been kicked is a bad idea.
If You’re Ahead Going Into FPL Gameweek 38
If you’re only 10 points ahead or less, then (unlike Liverpool) your title fight is not over.
I would probably play the most boring way possible at this point. The reason being that boring is normally right, it’s just not very fun. So, captain the chalk pick or buy that guy that you don’t have that you should have. Do not take hits, unless you absolutely have to.
If you’re around 10 to 25 points ahead, then you can feel reasonably confident that you are going to win your League. However, I would still be playing it pretty safe here. No hits, captain the template pick, buy the template player.
If you’re 25 points ahead, then just have fun. It’s very unlikely that you will lose your league.
If You’re in a Playoff or Cup Final
If you’re in a head to head or Cup final, then you should also probably play it safe.
The exception here might be captaincy, where you could look at what you think your opponent will do and do the opposite. However, that won’t always be good advice. If your teams aren’t at all similar, then doing something different on captain is probably quite risky.
Teams and Fixtures to Target
Ahead of FPL Gameweek 38, it is still valuable to look at teams and fixtures to target.
I said a few weeks ago, but it’s well worth repeating here: At this point of the season attackers tend to be more productive than defenders. So, bear that in mind and prioritise transfers there.
Best Defences to Own
- Aston Villa
- Man City
- Arsenal
- Chelsea
- Bournemouth
Manchester United attack are pretty piss poor. They have nothing to play for and probably will have won the Europa League by the time of the final game of the season. So, I like Aston Villa to keep a clean sheet here.
Man City are heavily reliant on clean sheets at the moment. Their attack is not firing on all cylinders so they have basically been trying to 1-0 every game for the last two or three months. I like that defence.
Arsenal are obviously the best defence in the league. The only reason they are third on this list is because Gabriel is injured and Saliba might be too.
Chelsea and Bournemouth have defences that are okay, and fixtures that are good.
Best Attacks to Own
- Bournemouth
- Brighton
- Aston Villa
- Arsenal
- Man City
Bournemouth have great attacking options and play against an awful team (Leicester).
Brighton play against one of the worst defences in the league and against Spurs, who might be tired from their midweek EL final. Same for Aston Villa against Man U.
Arsenal play against what is probably the worst team I think I’ve seen in the Premier League in three years.
And really I don’t love any other fixture, but I have to pick a fifth because I arbitrarily said I would pick five, so I have chosen Man City who just have bags of talent.
Player Moves
Just Buy Bournemouth
Many questions in FPL Gameweek 38 can be answered with: Just buy a Bournemouth asset.
If you’re looking for a defensive asset, buy Kerkez. If you are looking for a midfield asset, buy Semenyo or Kulivert. If you’re looking for a forward asset, buy Evanilson.
The reasons should hopefully be quite obvious: Bournemouth play Leicester who are one of the worst defences in the league AND Bournemouth have a very slight, small, outside chance of getting European football next season.
What Do We Do if Isak is Injured?
Sell him, of course!
He is too much money to leave on the bench on the final day of the season. Evanilsn, Watkins, Cunha, Wissa, Wood and maybe even Gakpo are options. All of these guys have something to play for or good fixtures or both.
It is probably worth waiting until closer to the deadline to see if he is actually injured.
Can I Buy Bowen?
Yes. You absolutely can buy Bowen. Unlike Joe, I have been foolish enough not to have bought Bowen in the last two weeks and it was a mistake. He is a great player and he has a great fixture even if he plays for a shit team.
Should I Sell Saliba?
Wait for news, he may be fit for the final game.
That’s It.
For now…
We will be back towards the end of the week with final thoughts and captaincy.
Good luck for FPL Gameweek 38 all! Hope you all win your leagues.