In our final pre-deadline piece of the year we look at how to approach FPL Gameweek 38, captaincy and provide a free hit suggestion.
Wait For Leaks?
If you can, then waiting for leaks might give you an advantage over your opponents. However, it’s not the end of the world. I waited for the leak two weeks ago, sold Marmoush and bought KDB – it was a disaster.
Isak is probably the guy you will be waiting for information on. Howe will inevitably be tight lipped or just outright lie like normal. All we know at this time is that he has been called up to Sweden in June.
Remember The Beach
The idea of teams being “on the beach” at the end of the season is supported by data, even if not in the way some suggest. While players don’t totally give up, studies show that mid-table teams with little to play for often become more open, scoring and conceding more goals. For FPL, this means prioritising players from motivated teams and leaning towards attackers over defenders, as clean sheets become rarer in these looser matches.
Remember, it is not just the fight for top six that is on at the moment. Eighth has an outside chance of European football – that means Brighton and Brentford have something to play for too.
The Last Gameweek Is a Goal Fest
Over the past 10 years, GW38 has consistently seen a higher average of goals per game compared to the season’s overall average. In 22 of the past 23 seasons, the final day’s scoring rate surpassed the season average.
Saliba and Timber Both Out for Saints Game
Linked to the above, both Timber and Saliba are confirmed out for this gameweek. I really think its not worth your time to make defensive moves unless you absolutely have to.
Captaincy Choices
Captaincy isn’t easy this week. We have multiple options and none of them standout in my mind. I assume that Saka and Salah will be the most captained but I don’t know for sure.
Evanilson @ Leicester
xGI per 90 this year – 0.56
Bournemouth might be in a bit of a rut in terms of form but they’re still more than capable of putting three goals past Leicester’s woeful defence. I much prefer Evanilson over Semenyo or Kluivert because he’s underlying numbers are much stronger, particularly non-penalty xG per 90.
Bowen @ Ipswich
xGI per 90 this year – 0.46
West Ham aren’t very good but Ipswich are much worse. The thing that Bowen has over anyone else in that team (and maybe in this list) is that he is the talisman. If West Ham do anything, it will be him who does it.
Salah v.s. Palace
xGI per 90 this year – 0.9 (you aren’t reading that wrong, it is not a typo)
Salah is the King of FPL and GOAT. He is at home against a team that is on the beach. I know he hasn’t been fantastic lately but we won’t be writing him off.
Watkins @ Man Utd
xGI per 90 this year – 0.61
Watkins is not the player that we saw last year but he’s still a damn good striker. United suck and had to play midweek too so may be tired.
Saka @ Southampton
xGI per 90 this year – 0.75
This is a very easy fixture for Arsenal. The only trouble being they don’t have much to play for and we saw the Saints sit back and defend against City successfully even though they don’t have anything to play for. Still, I envisage Saka being highly captained.
Mbeumo @ Wolves
xGI per 90 this year – 0.58
Another talismanic pick, he scored and assisted against Wolves already once this year when Brentford beat them 5-3.
Free Hit Draft
Okay, there are no fun decisions for me to make but some of you are on free hit and that’s way more fun. So, I am going to pretend to be you and here is my suggested free hit team.
Raya in goal with cheap nobody on the bench to save money.
Arsenal defence is incredibly solid, they play one of the worst teams in the league and you should probably at least double up here. We don’t know for certain who is fit at the back but we know Raya is so lets grab him.
Gvardiol, Kiwior, and Livramento (Wan Bissaka and Greaves on the bench).
Firstly, I am doubling up on Arsenal defence. Secondly, I am grabbing Gvards for his attacking threat and the fact that City play dull football to 1-0 everything at the moment. Livramento gets on this list because Everton suck, he is playing at home and also has attacking threat. Wan Bissaka is on the bench as he is only 4.4 and has a good fixture. Greaves is on the bench because is 3.8 and I don’t expect to need him and I feel nostalgic for my 15th man for most of the season.
Salah, Saka, Mbeumo, Bowen (Rogers on the bench)
Woof! Look at that midfield.
All of these guys make my captaincy options list. And I can afford this.
Honourable mention to Semenyo who could be someone you switch Mbeumo or Bowen to save money.
Watkins, Isak, Evanilson
Again, Watkins and Evanilson make my captaincy list.
Isak sits here as I assume he starts. If he doesn’t then Rogers comes off the bench which is fine. If you need to save loads of money on this draft then switch Isak to Welbeck (Spurs are bad at defending regardless of what you think you saw on Wednesday night). Joao Pedro is out after fighting with his teammates in training.
This team is so tasty I am considering taking the 24 point hit to get it myself (I am not. This is a joke).
That’s it.
Good luck, hope you smash your leagues!