FPL Gameweek 35 is almost upon us. We were hoping for double gameweek news (or not double gameweek news), but sadly we are also having to write this before that happens.
Speaking of writing. For those of you who don’t know, Joe is an actual writer. Seriously. Check out his stuff here.
I am a shit writer, so you have to rely on me and ChatGPT for this excellent Henry V reference:
—
We, managers of might, students of price fall and rise,
Shall pluck from this dead wood some green return yet.
So close the ranks, my managers brave and bold,
Let not the casual steal a march—
Once more, dear friends, once more unto the beach!
—
Yeah, you guessed it. We aren’t gonna do the usual thing. This is a deep dive on beaching.
Is it even real? What are the implications for FPL? Who are the Non-Beach Teams to Target? And, who are the non-beach top transfer targets?
But first…
Is Double Gameweek 36 Dead?
For reasons that I don’t fully understand, FPL’s resident fixtures expert Ben Crellin now thinks double gameweek 36 won’t happen.
We still don’t know for sure, but I trust Crellin. So, I am assuming it won’t happen until we know more.
Of course, we do hope to know this week if it will happen, so hold your transfers as late as possible.
Is Being “On the Beach” Even a Real Thing?
The Guardian seem to think not, based almost entirely on Harry Redknapp’s say so, and the idea that contract bonuses mean players will still turn up.
But, the reality is that beaching is real. Just maybe not in the way the Guardian thinks. Players don’t down tools, but they do get a little more lax at defending, and a little freer in attack.
We know this because the lads at Harvard tell us it’s true. They looked at the PL seasons from 96/97 to 17/18, and concluded “that teams that have little to play for at the end of the season perform significantly worse at the end of the season.”
Further analysis by Analytics FC, covering six Premier League seasons, found that teams positioned between 8th and 15th place tended to engage in more open matches, scoring and conceding more goals. Specifically, their goals scored per 90 minutes increased from 1.17 to 1.58, while goals conceded rose from 1.47 to 1.87.
This makes sense. We know that you need be incredibly disciplined and motivated to be a professional footballer. And while the additional money might motivate you, when you are already paid quite well it is unlikely to make a HUGE difference. It is diminishing, marginal returns… for the economists out there.
Implications for FPL From Beachiness
Targeting players from teams still fighting for European qualification or battling relegation can be advantageous, because these teams have clear motivations to perform. Whereas, relying on players from mid-table teams with nothing at stake may be risky, as their performances could be inconsistent or lacklustre.
(Of course, there are no relegation battles any more this season.)
However, “on the beach” teams will also play against “on the beach” teams, so try not to overreact. You don’t need to take a minus 16 and drop all your players.
Another idea is to target attacking transfers. Targeting attackers rather than defenders will likely pay dividends, since – as beach teams play a bit more freely – clean sheets will be harder to come by.
So, Who Is NOT On The Beach?
Well, the Premier League has answered this one for us.
TL;DR – the teams and their fixtures are:
- Arsenal: BOU (H); LIV (A); NEW (H); SOU (A)
- Newcastle: BHA (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)
- Forest: BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)
- Man City: WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)
- Chelsea: LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)
- Aston Villa: FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)
- Bournemouth: ARS (A); AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)
- Fulham: AVL (A); EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)
- Brighton: NEW (H); WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)
- Brentford: NFO (A); MUN (H); IPS (A); FUL (H); WOL (A)
- Crystal Palace: NFO (H); TOT (A); WOL (H); LIV (A)
If you read the story, you will see it is a bit of a stretch to say Palace are in with a shout. Particularly when we know that they are probably going to focus on winning the FA Cup. So, ignore them.
I’d also probably ignore Arsenal, because they are definitely going to prioritise the Champions League. I doubt Saka starts this weekend. Saliba and Raya are probably the only really safe options.
Who Has The Best ATTACKING Fixtures From That Lot?
These guys!
- Forest
- Brentford
- Man City
- Fulham
- Villa
- Brighton
- Bournemouth
- Chelsea
- Newcastle
That’s with Forest having the second best fixtures in the league, Brentford third best, and Man City eighth best.
Newcastle have the absolute worst, Chelsea second worst, and Palace fourth worst.
Top Transfer Targets In Attack
Forwards
There are a plethora of options here.
In the cheap bracket, Wissa at Brentford is unmatched. He has great underlyings and is currently 6th for xGI per 90 among all forwards. I also LOVE Evanilson who is 7th for xGI per 90 from forwards, I just don’t love his fixtures. I wouldn’t sell him, but I also probably wouldn’t buy him.
I would avoid Joao Pedro, Welbeck and Jimenez, because I don’t really want to play the game of crossing my fingers and hoping that they play. BUT, if you want to do something a bit different or you just need some cheap bench depth, they are all options.
In the lower mid-price bracket, you could go for Wood or Marmoush. I don’t love either of them though.
I haven’t been a huge fan of Wood’s all season because he has massively outperformed his xG, and I don’t think it is sustainable. As Forest falter at the end of the season, I wouldn’t rush to get him.
As for Marmoush, I think he is fine. I am just worried about his minutes when Haaland returns. Of course, they both played together earlier in the season but that won’t stop Pep from just dropping him for no reason (I am a Savinho owner).
Fortunately, for a little bit more money you can have Isak or Watkins. These guys are second and third in the league for xGI per 90 among forwards. Isak is miles ahead of Watkins and equalling Haaland, but obviously has tougher fixtures. With Rashford out, Watkins is nailed and likely walking into my team.
And, of course, there is Haaland. He is back in training but let’s wait to see him start before we buy him shall we?
Midfield
Mbeumo is my number one target this week. He is a god. He is slightly outperforming xGI per 90 but is 6th among mids and obviously second among all FPL points scorers behind Salah. And he is on pens. Get him.
Rogers at Villa remains a good pick. Way better than the likes of Iwobi. Kluivert and Semenyo are fine. But nothing to get too excited about.
Otherwise, I am not blown away by the options here.
No Man City mid is nailed. I would probably ignore them all, but buying KdB for nostalgia is completely legitimate.
The algos favour Palmer. But, we know they are not good at identifying when a trend has changed. I think the trend now is that Chelsea are shit, so I would avoid him for the time being. Especially as the fixtures aren’t good.
For similar reasons to Wood, I don’t love Elanga or Gibbs-White.
Who Has The Best DEFENSIVE Fixtures From The Non-Beach Teams
- Brentford
- Man City
- Forest
- Fulham
- Newcastle
- Bournemouth
- Villa
- Chelsea
- Brighton
And that’s with Brentford, City and Forest having the third, fourth and sixth best fixtures in the league.
Brighton, Chelsea and Palace have the worst fixtures in the league.
Top Defender (and Goalkeeper) Transfer Targets
Firstly, remember what I said above – prioritise attacking transfers.
Secondly, you really shouldn’t be wasting a transfer on goalkeeper. But, if you have 5 frees and nothing else to do (HOW?!) then sure, get Sels or Leno.
And finally, in terms of defenders to buy…
Gvardiol should be the first one you get, but you probably already have him.
Milenkovic and Williams at Forest are probably next best. With honourable mentions for Livramento, Kerkez and Cucurella.
It’s hard to know what’s going on at Fulham, but I think Sessegnon will get benched soon with Wilson back and Robinson expected to return.
Ignore Brentford and Brighton players – they have shit defences.
Are There Any Players From Beach Teams Worth Buying/Keeping?
Yes.
- Keep Salah. He is the GOAT and is going for another PL record.
- You could buy Bowen. He is just that good, and the fixtures are okay.
- Similarly, Cunha is good and is probably putting himself in the shop window for Man Utd to overpay.
- I’d definitely hold Saliba and Raya.
And, of course, some picks might end up doubling in 36 (and blanking in 37) which makes them better picks.
My Moves
At the time of writing I am sitting 17k, with Mbeumo left to play on my free hit.
Two weeks ago I was 12k, with a bench boost and a free hit to play. I was feeling confident of breaking into the top 10k. Now, not so much. It is only 16 points away, but I went too hard on the double gameweek players. And I am now not sure which of my players will play 90 (I have players like Saka, Mateta and Savinho).
So now, I really want Mbeumo and Watkins to save me. I would need to get rid of Digne to get Watkins. So, I am currently looking at a -4 with Digne, Saka and Mateta out for Milenkovic/Williams, Mbeumo and Watkins. At the very least, it is fun.
That’s It.
I don’t know about you, but all this beach talk has made me want a holiday.
Until then, hopefully this Gameweek 35 preview helped you out a bit. If so, please either give us a follow on Reddit, and/or chuck us a little donation below.
Bon chance in GW 35, all!