It’s Sunday evening, the FA Cup quarter finals have just finished, my baby’s just gone to sleep. And what am I doing? Writing another FPL gameweek preview. I’m addicted.
But, this isn’t just any preview – this is a blockbuster. It is make or break time for your FPL season.
In this FPL gameweek 30 preview we will cover:
- The Early Deadline
- Blanks and Doubles
- Chip Strategy
- Best Attacking and Defensive Fixtures
- Wildcard Strategy
Let’s get started.
Tuesday 18.15 GMT Deadline – Watch Out for the Clocks Changing!
First things first, for those in the UK – the deadline is Tuesday 18.15.
The clocks changed for daylight savings purposes in the UK on Sunday 30th March. Some other countries changed too, some didn’t.
Most importantly, it is entirely possible the deadline is now an hour earlier than you realised.
Blanks and Doubles
The FA Cup quarter finals were decided at the weekend. That means we now know who will blank in FPL gameweek 34 (and therefore double another week).
If you want to understand more about all this, I recommend following Ben Crellin on BlueSky.
Here is a summary:
- GW 32 – Confirmed Double for Palace and Newcastle
Newcastle and Palace missed their game in 29 because Newcastle played in the League Cup Final.
- GW 33 – Likely double for Palace, Man City, Aston Villa, Arsenal
At the time of writing this is not yet confirmed. But all these teams have to play the game they will miss because of GW 34.
- GW 34 – Confirmed blank for Palace, Man City, Aston Villa, Arsenal
At the time of writing, this does not appear on the FPL website or app.
But these games are definitely blanks because of the FA Cup semi-finals.
- GW 36 – Likely double for FA Cup Finalists + Their PL Opponents
The FA Cup final is played on the weekend of gameweek 37. So, we expect the match to move earlier (and miss European congestion).
- GW 37 – Blank for the FA Cup Finalists + Their PL Opponents
There will definitely be a blank here. We just don’t know who for.
A Word On Brentford And Forest
They are confusing.
They could blank in 34, but it seems unlikely. They don’t have any European football or anything else clogging up their fixture schedules. Plus they have Monday games, which make mid-week rescheduling tough. So we, and more importantly Ben Crellin, think they don’t blank.
(But, it’s technically a possibility that they blank in GW 34, and double in either GW 33 or GW 35.)
Chip Strategy
The “template” strategy, for want of a better word, seems to be:
- Wildcard GW 30 or 31 – grab all the doubles that you can
- Bench Boost GW 32 or GW 33 – more fixtures in these weeks.
- Triple Captain GW 32 or GW 36 – an opportunity to TC Isak, or maybe Haaland.
- Free Hit GW 34 – most number of blanking players.
That is certainly my plan at the moment, as I don’t have my Ass Man left.
What if I do have my Ass Man left?
I suggest you buy Oliver Glasner for Palace’s double double. You get 5 fixtures from 3 gameweeks, and it doesn’t cost you any transfers to do so.
(Remember, you can’t play two chips at once. So if you plan to wildcard 30 or 31, and use your Ass Man, then wildcard 30 and Ass Man 31 – just make sure to leave money in the budget for the Ass Man!)
What if I don’t have my Wildcard left?
If you still have your free hit, then I would probably try and use the free hit for double gameweek 33, and just manage my way through the rest. That’s a really fun differential strategy.
What if I don’t have my Free Hit left?
Save transfers. Wait until the last minute or until things are confirmed before making moves. Obviously, don’t play 10 players instead of getting an eleven out just for the sake of saving transfers but do be sparing.
What if I don’t have my Wildcard or my Free Hit left?
Save transfers. Don’t do anything until things are confirmed. You cannot take any risks here.
A Word on Head to Head and Playoffs
I love my head-to-head league because it finishes in the playoffs. And the playoffs are an EXCELLENT time to play chips. The Ass Man chip could be played in GW 36 and last the entire playoffs, and win your league for you. Of course, the others can also make a difference too.
If you are out of your other leagues, but still have a chance at Head-to-Head, then seriously consider wildcarding in GW 35 (or the week before your playoffs begin). If you are confident you make the playoffs anyway, you could take a million hits in GW 35 to set yourself up for the playoffs and effectively give yourself a free wildcard!
Fixture Tickers
Now we know the upcoming blanks and doubles, and we have talked about chips, we can look at the tickers.
The short-term tickers are effectively broken at the moment – if you look four weeks ahead v.s. five weeks ahead, then you get a completely different result. Instead, I will just look at the best attacking and defensive fixture runs until the end of the season.
The Best Defensive Fixtures to the End of the Season
- Man City
- Newcastle
- Arsenal
- Bournemouth
- Liverpool
- Forest
The Best Attacking Fixtures to the End of the Season
- Wolves
- Forest
- Man City
- Newcastle
- Bournemouth
- Arsenal
As we are looking long-term, it doesn’t really make a difference if you free hit or not. These are the guys to own.
Importantly, notice how Villa and Palace aren’t there despite the doubles! Their actual fixtures are only okay, and they have fixture congestion in the Champions League and Premier League respectively.
Wildcard Strategy
It’s hard to say exactly, because I’ve only been looking at this for a few hours. But, I think my wildcard strategy would be:
- Get as many doublers as possible.
- Spend more money in attack because defences suck this year, and more goals are scored towards the end of a season.
- Try to only buy defensive assets from the six teams listed above.
- Grab 3 Palace for the double double, but then sell them all/bench them soon after.
With this in mind, you can read about all the guys I’m looking at below.
Goalkeepers
Obviously, I am proposing to break my strategy above straightaway… but this is a fun one.
If you have your free hit, then you can take Henderson and Martinez because they play each other in the FA Cup semi-finals. If you do that, you get yourself:
- DGW 32 – Henderson doubles
- DGW 33 – Henderson and Martinez doubles for possible bench boost
- BGW 34 – Free Hit
- DGW 36 – Whichever one wins the FA Cup semis will double
- GW 37 – The other one plays
If you do this, then you have four ‘extra’ games from doubles in the goalkeeping position. This is the safest spot to try this with, because goalkeepers are the least likely to get injured and most likely to play all the minutes.
If you don’t have your free hit, then you can still take Henderson because he is a good option. You would then fill the other spot with someone cheap with okay fixtures for the potential free hit, like Jose Sa (Leicester at home in 34) or Leno (Southampton at home in 34).
Another alternative, regardless of free hit status, is to get the keeper from the best defence in the league who also has a double: Raya. Pair him up with Areola and you have a good bench boost (West Ham play Southampton in DGW 33), and someone who plays in 34 in case you need it. You can do similiar with Pope and Areola. Pope/Raya and Arrizabalaga could also be an option.
Defenders
Okay, let‘s get back to my great strategy of buying only those defences listed above, and saving lots of money – totally not contradictory at all…
I think my order of preference is:
- Gabriel
- Timber
- Saliba
- Livramento
- Milenkovic
- Aina
- Gvardiol
I really don’t mind a defensive double or even a triple on Arsenal (more on Saka and Odegaard later), because they are so good and solid.
You might not be able to be afford that, so I don’t mind grabbing Digne or Konsa as long as you aren’t overly reliant on them. And, Munoz, is soooo attacking I would also consider him (especially as you can sell him later). Even Kerkez or Huijsen could be worth owning in the long run.
Attack
I’m going to talk about the strikers and forwards all together – its just easier.
Let’s start with the double doublers.
There is a plethora of options at Palace: Sarr, Eze and Mateta. All three have shown flashes of brilliance, and that’s all you need from them. I find it hard to believe you wouldn’t take Sarr given the price tag (5.6). He has the best underlying stats this year, albeit with a smaller sample size. I’m also slightly concerned that Mateta is not fit given his performance in the cup.
As for the other doublers. At Newcastle, Gordon is a great player, but he misses this first game. I think I would get him because I expect him to be back and fit for gameweek 31 (he went off injured for England over the break), but it is definitely a risk. He is really the only option from a pretty poor Newcastle midfield.
Maybe you could convince me to take a punt on Murphy, but that’s exactly what it would be – a punt. The underlying numbers are okay (akin to Delap or Trossard on per 90s), but nothing to write home about.
For Arsenal, Saka is also a tough one. Sixth for xGI per 90 this season, but we don’t think he starts this week, and probably not next. Maybe he doesn’t even play both games in the double. So, if wildcarding this week, I think I would have to skip him. I don’t think Odegaard is worth the money, considering you can get the same xGI per 90 out of Szoboszlai or Beto, but given his pedigree I don’t mind taking the risk.
For Man City, Foden and Haaland are probably the first names that come to mind. Haaland looks injured, so I would ignore him. Foden has been pretty good this second half of the season, and has similar underlyings to Bruno Fernandes, Mbeumo and Son, so I like the pick. Savinho actually has similarly good stats and could be worth a go. Marmoush minutes did worry me, but with Haaland injured I like the pick. De Bruyne doesn’t get enough minutes.
At Villa, you basically have Rogers who is mega cheap, and really good, but inconsistent. Or Watkins, who is also really good but inconsistent, and possibly injured.
For those with a slight chance of a double, I have a bit of an issue with Forest: they have ludicrously overperformed their underlyings all year. Wood is no better than Vardy or Cunha – both good but not exceptional. Of course, Wood might also be injured after the international break. Elanga and Gibbs-White underlyings are near McNeil and people like that – if you want to go there based on what they have done, then that is fair, but I just cannot recommend them except for money reasons.
Mbeumo on the other hand is just great and always worth considering, even if there is no double. Wissa is a bit riskier… but every striker seems to have injury concerns right now, so maybe get him.
In terms of single gamweek players, I like the ones with good long-term fixtures. That’s the Bournemouth lot (Kluivert, Semenyo, Evanilson) and Liverpool.
What To Do With Salah?
Salah doesn’t double, but he does cost a lot of money.
I think if I wildcarded this week I would still have him, especially as it looks like Haaland is injured, and so I would have lots of spare money.
If I could guarantee Jota to play every game (and up front) then I would probably take him too.
My Moves
It is possible I wildcard on Tuesday. But, most likely, I will hold it for GW 31, because I will have more time to plan and think.
It is quite possible that wildcard 30 is the better strategy, but I have a job and a life so I can’t JUST do FPL.
(… can I?)
Final Thoughts
Well, that was quite a big preview. But, guess what? It’s a big moment in FPL. Time after time, we’ve seen that – if you plan this last bit of the season right – you can make massive upward moves in your OR.
Will this Gameweek 30 preview have helped you do so? Time will tell!
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If not… I will still be nice, and wish you the best of luck in Gameweek 30