After a fair few cleans in the first couple of weeks, we had speculated whether good defences/big at the back was back.
Well, the Prem was back to business as usual in Gameweek 3, with only one clean sheet. So, now let’s speculate about defences being awful again.
More seriously, it’s obviously far too soon to be drawing any big conclusions about… anything, really. If you are wildcarding over the international break, just assume that defences are as bad as they were last season, and plan accordingly.
Gameweek 3 FPL Review
On that cheery, positive note, let’s enjoy an FPL review of all 10 games from Gameweek 3.
Arsenal 1 – 1 Brighton
- The xG here was 2.08 to 1.83. Basically, we were unlucky not to get more goals in this game
- Almost all of Brighton’s xG came in the second half and Rice was sent off at 49 mins. So, Arsenal’s defence is still stupidly good under normal circumstances. That said, you’re not buying in before Spurs in GW 4
- Saka just returns every single week. Doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but just a joy to own a player that consistent
- Havertz scored again. If you’re panicking on Watkins (I wouldn’t blame you), he’s a solid replacement. City in GW 5 isn’t great, but his attacking fixtures either side of that are very good
- Joao Pedro scored again, and surely has that starting spot secured. He still looks nice value at 5.7, especially with Ipswich (and Forest) next
Brentford 3 – 1 Southampton
- Mbeumo is one of the best picks in the game, now that he’s nailed for pens with Toney gone. His value at 7.1 is fantastic… but also don’t buy him just before Man City
- Both of us started with Wissa last year, because he performed super well with Toney gone. Toney-replacement Thiago is injured until the new year. So, Wissa might be worth a punt with good fixtures (after City), and is almost definitely worth picking up in Draft. He finished the game with an xG of 1.09, and is currently third overall for xG this season
- Southampton were incredibly susceptible to the press. Target them mercilessly
Everton 2 – Bournemouth 3
- The Everton defence had us dreaming of a first clean sheet, right up until the 88th minute. They then managed to concede three goals. Hilarious for the neutral, not so much for us Pickford owners. Everton have Villa next, so that’s not a clean either… I’d never normally make an early GK transfer, but I’m very tempted in this case
- James shouted out Semenyo as the best 5.5 in our GW 3 preview. He had 5 more shots here, still tops the Shots Taken chart in the league, and now has 2 goals and 1 assist already
Ipswich 1 – 1 Fulham
- Muniz has the 5th-highest number of shots in the league so far. His xG is just over 1 for the season. Owners like James are sorely disappointed to not have at least one return
- Ipswich might not be terrible. They were fine against Liverpool in GW 1, obviously got battered away to Man City in GW 2, but made this an even game. They’re probably not whipping boys, on the Southampton(/Everton) level
Leicester 1 – 2 Aston Villa
- Watkins is 8th for xG, just behind Jota and Diaz. Unfortunately for owners, he’s not getting any actual goals! His minutes are also a major concern – he keeps getting hooked after around an hour, and Duran has already scored twice. Basically, he only gets 60+ minutes to score, otherwise he’s off
- Rogers, on the other hand, has the same xG as Pedro Porro. Which is great for a defender, but not that great for a midfielder. His xGI is the same as Ayew, Martinelli or Gvardiol. He keeps passing the eye test… but also still doesn’t have a return
- Bailey off after 16 minutes is a worry. He won’t be lining up for Schteve Mclaren’s Jamaica during the international break, thanks to what looks like a hamstring injury
Forest 1 – 1 Wolves
- Wood continues to start and impress. Are we going to sleep on this guy all year, because of the potential threat of Awoniyi? When do we accept that he is nailed? (For the record, we’re not actually sure yet). Regardless, he has Liverpool next, but his fixtures after that are fine
West Ham 1 – 3 Man City
- Not much to read into this for West Ham. They still looked fine last week, in a matchup that wasn’t against the champions
- Bowen got a fantasy ‘assist’ for an OG. He hasn’t exactly been lighting it up so far this year, but has had tricky fixtures and still got through them with 1 G, 1 A. Fulham and Chelsea next, both of which feel fine
- The City defence once again failed to keep a clean in a game they won easily. I’m going to keep pointing this out every time it happens, as I did after Ipswich last week
- Not owning Haaland is horrible. That said, I’m still not sure I’d bring him in on a WC, unless you had a plan for after that. He’ll probably smash Brentford next game, but struggled against Arsenal last year, and Newcastle could (maybe…) be tricky too
- Just sell Foden if you’ve still got him
Chelsea 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
- Just a really strange game. I watched the whole thing, and still had no idea which team actually played better
- The Chelsea defence looked much better than the first two weeks. I wouldn’t buy in yet, but it’s worth monitoring
- The Chelsea attack looked a bit disjointed once again. The link-up between Palmer and Madueke is great, and led to Jackson’s goal. Nothing else is working
- Mixed bag for Palmer. He got the assist with a typically well-timed pass, but spent so much time dropping deep for the ball, a long way from goal. Obviously you’re holding anyway if you’ve got him, but he wouldn’t be a top captaincy choice for me right now
- Shockingly, Madueke did not follow up on his hat trick. He played okay, but missed a pretty easy chance
- Sell Nkunku immediately, if you’re still holding
- The Palace defence also looked solid (though the tactics in general were very defensive)
- I’m still not sold on Munoz. He gets in attacking positions, but doesn’t actually do much with them. I’m not selling before Leicester, but he’s definitely on the hot seat at 5.0
- Eze is just a joy to watch. His goal was beautiful. I can’t believe his price dropped – he’s an easy hold for me, until further notice.
- The Palace attack doesn’t look great overall, though. I definitely wouldn’t be interested in Mateta, for example, and would be fine selling him
Newcastle 2 – 1 Spurs
- Porro is an excellent asset. 6 shots, and even took a free kick with Maddison on the pitch. If they could only defend…
- Spurs were so dominant. They should not have lost
- Ange constantly throwing people forward is entertaining, but they’re getting caught on the break so easily. It will carry on forever. Particularly when van der Ven is injured
- Isak showing he is truly one of the best strikers in the league. Barely touches the ball, and scores the winning goal. Remind you of anyone?
- Tripper was benched, after his League Cup start. Sell him, if you were still holding
Man U 0 – 3 Liverpool
- Man U were just terrible. Technically you should hold them for Southampton, but bin them immediately after that, whatever happens
- Zirkzee finished with an xG of 0.88… but the lack of a goal was completely his own fault, since he missed two pretty easy chances
- We might not actually be able to read too much into this for Liverpool. It was just too easy for them – Man U just couldn’t cope with their press at all
- Trent had a goal disallowed. Non-owners (like both of us) remain incredibly lucky. His xGI is currently about the same as Jota’s. It’s frustrating he’s not getting attacking returns, but you have to hold
- Salah is actually tied with Haaland on 41pts now, and has dream fixtures coming up
- Jota and Diaz are both great picks. Diaz has gotten the recent returns. I’d probably still take Jota, if I didn’t have either, since he’s playing through the centre, but it’s really personal preference
- Three straight cleans now for the Liverpool defence. This really shouldn’t have been, with Zirkzee missing two good chances, but their upcoming fixtures are great. I’d prioritise their defenders over any in the league right now, with Arsenal’s tough defensive matchups the next two weeks
Our Gameweek 3
It’s fair to say it was a bit of a mixed bag, here at Full 90 FPL!
- As previewed, James went:
- Haaland out for Watkins
- Winks in for Palmer
- And that double move cost him 19 points! He captained Palmer instead of Haaland, and would have started ESR and not Winks. If he had captained Salah, it would have only cost him 7 points
- Either way, it’s not great, but returns for both Palmer and Watkins is a good sign
- All the tools predicted similar points outcomes for Palmer and Haaland. So, a Haaland hat-trick and Palmer only getting an assist – that’s about as far from the expected outcome as you can get.
- He hoped to catch the variance and ride it. Sadly it went against him. That said, he’s not too heartbroken, and isn’t planning to change strategy yet
- Joe banked his transfer, after having to already move Trippier to Porro in GW 2
- He backed Salah for the captaincy at Old Trafford, so – for once – wasn’t punished for not having Haaland
- Returns for Saka, Bowen, and Eze all made him feel pleased for going big in midfield
- Watkins continues to drive him crazy, but at least managed one return
- The GK/DEF remains a disaster. No returns or cleans. Munoz is approaching last chance territory, and he (FPL-) hates Pickford/Everton with a passion
Overall, we’re both trying very much to remember – as you should too – that it’s incredibly early! Whatever plan you had before the season, you should probably still be sticking with it, unless your players are injured/benched.
With that, we’ll let you get on with your week. Check back in on our Reddit profile, after the internationals, for our Gameweek 4 preview. Until them, enjoy the break, and don’t panic!