FPL Gameweek 3 Preview – Rogers, Nkunku, League Cup, Transfer Window Closing

Navigating the early gameweeks of Fantasy Premier League can feel like trying to solve a complex puzzle. With so many options on the table, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype around emerging players, transfer rumours, and shifting team dynamics.

In this analysis, we’ll dive into some of the key questions on FPL managers’ minds right now: Is Morgan Rogers essential? How do we handle the enigma that is Nkunku? And should we all be jumping on the Raya bandwagon?

We’ll also take a closer look at the latest transfer moves, evaluate upcoming fixture runs, and explore the best transfer options for the week ahead. Plus, we’ll discuss the art of balancing premiums and consider who deserves the captain’s armband in Gameweek 3.

Whether you’re flying high in your mini-leagues or scrambling to recover from a slow start, there’s something here for every FPL manager looking to gain an edge. Let’s dive in!

Is Morgan Rogers Essential?

No.

Rogers has some things going for him. He is very cheap, and he has looked attacking in the first two games of the season. He also probably should have had an assist against Arsenal, but Watkins couldn’t put it away.

However, he’s not actually delivered anything this year. Last year his xGI from 8 starts and 637 mins was only 1.68. Extrapolate that and you get about 8 xGI over the course of a season, assuming he plays about 3,000 mins. 

I’m interested in Rogers because of his price and his potential. But, I am not yet convinced that he is a pick, because of the small sample size and lack of returns. If he does turn out to be a pick, then I’ll still happily pay 5.5 for him when the time comes.

Chelsea vs Servette Mk II

Chelsea played in the Conference League again on Thursday and almost lost…

The final result was Servette 2-1 Chelsea (agg 2-3). Madueke played 60 mins and Nkunku played the full game – I’d be worried about either of them starting at the weekend.

Palmer and Jackson came on for 20 and 30 mins respectively. I think they are safe for picking on the weekend.

How To Solve A Problem Like Nkunku

Nkunku has been a bit of a disaster. He’s played 64 mins out of a possible 180 so far and Chelsea have the biggest squad in the league. He’s got to be sold.

Madueke is not an option. He’s not nailed either. Don’t switch one problem for another.

You already know my view that Rogers is not essential, but he’s a good option to replace Nkunku. I’d rather have Bailey though, who I think showed in Gameweek 1 how dangerous he can be.

Gibbs-White is another option, but I don’t love that he plays Liverpool in gameweek 4. Still, he’s on pens so could return in any game.

Another 6.5 option could be Szoboszlai. He is playing 10 in this Liverpool attack. Sure, you won’t be getting Trent or Salah or even Jota/Diaz levels of potential from this move. But, he plays in an attacking position for one of the best attacks in the league. Obviously bear in mind that you lock yourself out of a Liverpool pick with this move.

If you don’t have any spare cash, then I’d look at Semenyo at Bournemouth or Smith Rowe ar Fulham for 5.5/5.6.

Finally, if you have the cash to upgrade, then Mbeumo or Eze could be great picks. If Toney leaves then Mbeumo will take pens, but both are talismanic.

Should We All Buy Raya?

No.

He’s probably going to be the best keeper in the game. But we knew this at the start of the season.

I’d buy him if I was on wildcard, but not without the wildcard.

Transfer Deadline Day

The transfer window closes at 11pm Friday 30th August.

I don’t expect any moves this week to change the starting lineup of a team at the weekend, but they could affect your picks in the medium term. So, try your best to hold off on making any moves until you know.

As for the moves we know about:

• Brighton have signed Kadioglu for £25 million. According to Hurzeler, “He is predominantly a full-back and can play on the right or left side; he can also play in the centre of midfield.”
• Palace have signed Lacroix for £18 million. The Transfer Flow don’t like the guy and I trust their opinion, so wait and see on Palace defence. I assume Chadi Riad will get dropped, so don’t buy him.
• Liverpool have added to our worries about rotation by signing Chiesa. He wasn’t good last year when playing through the middle, so I imagine he will be competing with Luis Diaz and Gakpo on the wing or being the backup to Salah. He’s okay as a goalscorer, but he’s really a creative guy. One to watch.
• Ramsdale has signed for Southampton. He is not one to watch. They will be awful.
• Kepa has signed for Bournemouth. I’m not sure I understand this signing. Neto was one of the better keepers for xG prevented last year. It feels like Bournemouth could have spent their money on a more impactful player. But maybe I’ve just missed the fact that Neto is awful with his feet or something. Anyway, Neto is at serious risk of not playing soon, so you may have to sell him if you own him.
• Arsenal have signed Merino. Again, I don’t think this guy will be an FPL pick. He’s more box-to-box or playing deep than being attacking. so he probably won’t have too many routes to points. It could make Arsenal better overall, though.
• Man United have further improved their defence by signing Ugarte. The guy can press and cover much more ground than Casemiro. I’m shocked but I think United have had a good window. It’s obviously too early to tell, but I expect them to improve over their woeful defence from last year.
• Annoyingly for me (I’m a West Brom fan), Wolves are on the verge of signing Andre. I understand he is a Thiago Alcantra style player who is great at passing and keeping possession, but probably not an FPL asset. People are raving about the guy though, particularly those who play FM.

I don’t think you really need to think about any of these this week, and probably won’t have to pay attention to them at all. Maybe Kepa is the exception to that.

League Cup Roundup

Tuesday 27th August

• Everton 3-0. Doncaster 
• Leicester 4-0 Tranmere
• Birmingham 0-2 Fulham
• Crystal Palace 4-0 Norwich

Wednesday 28th August

• Wolves 2-0 Burnley
• Wimbledon p2-2 Ipswich
• Cardiff 3-5 Southampton
• Colchester 0-1 Brentford
• West Ham 1-0 Bournemouth
• Notts Forest 1-1p Newcastle

Key Takeaways

• In general, Everton, Leicester, Palace, and West Ham played their first teams in a bid to play themselves into form. Fulham, Wolves, Ipswich, Southampton, Newcastle, and Notts Forest put out a second team and rested their key players.
• Eze and Mateta scored for Palace, which is interesting because Norwich almost got promoted to the Premier League last year. Palace play Leicester in week 4, so I hope for something similar.
• Its probably good for their minutes over the weekend that Smith-Rowe and Muniz were rested.
• Trippier started for Newcastle, which suggests he is not being sold (they wouldn’t risk him getting injured). Tonali also made an appearance after his year long ban – he will make Newcastle better going forward.

Me vs The Model

I’ve subscribed to FPL Review this year. I wanted to find out what all the hype was about.

This is a bit of a clickbait subtitle. What I am actually looking at here is how accurate the model is this early in the season. And, I want to try and work out when you should listen to the model and when you need to engage that critical function in your brain.

I thought I was going to be able to see the drafts I didn’t choose at the start of the season, but sadly I cannot. So, I am going off memory alone.

As I said before, it was the model (and FML FPL) that put me on to Porro and that’s worked out well. 

If I remember correctly, the model picked Quansah which has turned out awfully. It also didn’t want me to do the Haaland and Salah double premium strategy, instead favouring Saka and Fernandes over Salah in the midfield. Outcomes-wise I am winning that, but xGI-wise I am sure it is pretty close. And, the model loved a Rogers/Pereira rotation which could have worked out a little bit better than it has… but they have zero returns.

I think my takeaways from this are that the model is crap at knowing who is nailed at the start of the season. So, that’s a lesson learned for next year.

Best Upcoming Fixture Runs

Here’s a look at the sides with the best overall fixtures in the next five gameweeks.

(Home games in caps)

• I’m very excited about the prospect of buying Villa assets
• Unfortunately Chelsea’s squad is a mess, and we don’t really know which FPL assets will play. I’d start Palmer. Apart from that, everyone feels a bit risky
• Ipswich and Everton are essentially irrelevant because they suck.
• All Liverpool’s games are nice attacking fixtures. You’re fine starting their defenders against everyone too, and Trent(/Robbo) could return in the Man U game anyway.

Should I Buy?

This section is for those of you who are wondering… “should I buy x ahead of gameweek 3?” 

• Madueke – No. He’s not nailed and was very fortunate to get a hat-trick.
• Smith-Rowe – Sure. He’s cheap and has a middling amount of attacking threat.
• Semenyo – Yes. Probably the best 5.5 midfielder in the game at the moment and the next five fixtures are good (apart from Liverpool).
• Welbeck/Joao Pedro – Definitely not this week. Don’t back a player going away to the best defence in the league.
• Haaland – Never not an option.
• Palmer – Yes. Great fixture run.
• Faes – No. He’s bad, Leicester are bad. He won’t keep scoring goals.
• Raya – No. Even though he looks great, I wouldn’t bother making a transfer for a goalkeeper.
• Robinson – Sure, they have some good fixtures and he has a small attacking threat.
• Porro/Romero – I’d rather have Porro by a huge amount.
• Alexander-Arnold/Robertson – Yes. Great picks. Trent is clearly the standout but Robbo is good coverage of the clean sheet, with lower attacking potential, for 1 million less.

Should I Sell?

This section is for those of you who are wondering… “should I sell x ahead of gameweek 3?”

• Isak – No. Spurs is a hard fixture on paper but we know they will come at this game and leave space on the counter. Plenty of opportunity for goals. The exception would be if you moved to Watkins.
• Solanke – Yes. I don’t think he has trained this week.
• Eze – No. He’s had the most shots of anyone in the league and Chelsea’s defence is leaky. The returns will come.
• Nkunku – Yes. He’s not nailed
• Foden – Yes. He’s also not nailed and really expensive.
• Watkins – Hell. No. Great fixtures coming in.
• Fernandes – I don’t mind selling him for Liverpool, but he could still return in this game. Not a huge priority for me.
• Garnacho – Yes. He’s not nailed.
• Gvardiol – I wouldn’t rush to switch him with an Arsenal or Liverpool defender this week.
• Gordon – I think you can hold or you can sell. I wouldn’t look to buy him this week. Newcastle haven’t been very impressive so far this year.
• Odegaard – Yes. He’s not looking as involved in the attacking actions we want so far this season. He will come good at some point, but I’d rather take the chance of higher upside with other players.
• Havertz/Saka – I can only assume you are selling them on wildcard which I am fine with. Otherwise, I think you are fine to keep until the City game. That’s a bad game but the 3 after are brilliant. So. you can also just keep them.
• Alexander-Arnold – No way. He has been so involved in the attack and unlucky not to return.
• Henderson – No. We are not using a goalkeeper transfer. It’s only been two weeks.
• Porro – No. I know the fixtures don’t look great, but he can still deliver an attacking return in any game. I think you probably have bigger issues elsewhere.

Captaincy Corner

I think Haaland is probably the best captaincy pick this week. But it’s close to Palmer in my opinion.

Man City have never lost to West Ham since Guardiola took over, and I think this will continue to be a plum fixture. I probably wouldn’t have backed Palmer at the start of the season, but having seen the Palace defence and seeing that they have sold Andersen and may sell Guehi then I’m happy to go against.

Saka and Salah are other options I would consider.

I kind of love the idea of captaining Salah against United. He is great and they were crap defensively last year. Plus, most managers won’t captain him so it’s a differential. Saka is just always good, but I think his ceiling is a bit lower than these guys so I just don’t think he’s fun. Maybe that’s my aggressive strategy coming through.

James Moves: Hokey-Cokey Premiums

Did you know it’s called hokey-pokey in the US? Weird.

Anyway, this is the key question for me this week. As we always say, you can’t have all the best picks. This isn’t Pokemon. So, going into gameweek 3 is it okay to switch your premiums around?

My plan from pre-season required me to sell Haaland and Winks for Watkins and Palmer. But, I am scared. I am scared that I will squander this good start by letting Haaland go.

Still, I can’t live in fear forever… so I pulled the trigger last night to avoid getting priced out of it.

That’s It

As we wrap up, it’s clear that the early weeks of FPL are full of potential and pitfalls. While Morgan Rogers offers promise, he’s far from essential, and Nkunku’s ongoing struggles make him a prime candidate for the transfer list. The transfer window’s final moves could shake things up. But for now, patience is key.

Keep your eyes on the long game, and don’t be afraid to adapt your strategy as new information comes to light. Here’s to making the most of Gameweek 3 and beyond!