Sorry… where were we? I’m sure I had some master plan that was going to catapult me up the OR at long last…
Even if they are only one week long, it’s always a bit disorienting to come back to FPL from an international break. But fear not, dear reader – we’re here to catch you up on everything that happened all that time ago, and get you ready for the explosive (maybe) / frustrating (probably) return of Fantasy Premier League.
Gameweek 28 Recap
It feels like a bazillion years since Gameweek 28. Let’s have a quick recap of what happened. To be honest, I need it just as much as you do. Here were the results from week 28, including the two make-up games from earlier in the season:
These results got two managers fired – Viera and Conte (who basically fired himself).
More importantly for FPL terms, they saw Arsenal dominate, with Saka leading the way with a mighty 18pts. There were many blanks, which were a massive pain, most notably including those for City, Man U, and Brighton, who – thanks to loads of double gameweek shenanigans – are suddenly the most important team in FPL.
All the blanks also saw us get this all-time Dream Team:
I’m not sure when any of Che Adams, Abdoulaye Doucouré, or Theo Walcott made a team of the week, and I doubt they ever will again, but good for them. For the record, their respective ownership percentages are 1.1%, 0.1%, and 0.0% respectively.
Gameweek 29 Talking Points
It’s really looking like we’ll actually have some normal gameweeks coming up soon. Right now, Gameweeks 30 and 31, at the very least, look completely standard. For now though, the complexity continues.
Blanks and Doubles
Gameweek 29 sees another raft of doubles, as our FPL lord and saviour Ben Crellin has laid out here:
Here's my updated Blank and Double Gameweek schedule spreadsheet.https://t.co/5Gy9RiTkvr pic.twitter.com/5riyZj5Phr
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) March 24, 2023
Who we definitely don’t care about:
- Bournemouth
- Leeds
- Forest
- West Ham
Who we probably don’t care about:
- Brentford (you’ve got their players already, but these fixtures are rubbish)
- Villa (two away games, and they’re not that good)
- Chelsea (too inconsistent)
- Liverpool (rotation, and bad fixtures)
That leaves us with the teams we do care about:
- Brighton – Nice fixtures. You should already be tripled-up
- Leicester – Rubbish team but nice fixtures, and two good midfield options
- Man U – Good team, all right fixtures
- Newcastle – Good team, all right fixtures
Time to Bench Boost?
I was wavering on dropping my bench boost back in Gameweek 27, and kind-of wish I had. I ended up benching cleans for White and Trippier, and a goal for Martinelli. Adding in Kepa’s 3pts would have got me 22pts, which I’d happily take.
The reason I didn’t use it was to save it for this week. This is almost certainly going to be the biggest double gameweek left this season. If you’re not free hitting, you probably want to bench boost. Because I’m doing that too, and based on how my season is going… it probably won’t work.
Binning Big Hitters?
There’s a lot of discussion about binning some of the biggest players in FPL this week (obviously if you’re not using your free hit).
Haaland is the highest scoring player in the game of the names being tossed around, and therefore the top talking point by default. There’s some speculation about an injury (which smacks of getting out of international duty, call me cynical), and also he has Liverpool this week. Like Haaland, Kane has a single gameweek, and is another big name on the chopping block for some.
I’d feel deeply uneasy about this.
If you had Haaland to start the season, when he was 11.5, he’s now worth 11.7 for you. Assuming no further price rises, he’ll cost you 12.0 to get back in before his Southampton match in Gameweek 30. So you’re paying 0.3, and a transfer, to get rid of the best player in FPL, who has a big home game, against a team which just lost away to Bournemouth.
Kane would cost you slightly less to get back in, if and when you need to. But he’s also the second-highest scoring player in the game, and is super consistent.
Arsenal players are the other main target for these double gameweek shenanigans, since they also only have one game. It is home to Leeds, though, and surely it’s not worth binning Saka or Martinelli, both of whom are in good form.
This all just feels like overthinking it to me. We all got excited about the double gameweeks, and rushed to get in Brighton and Brentford players. The former did fine, the latter disappointed somewhat. Maybe we should pay a bit more attention to just… having the best teams, rather than trying to eke out one more game from worse players?
Should I Buy?
If you were following the template strategy for the past few gameweeks, and dropped your wildcard (too?) early, you should have two free transfers now. Even if you’ve just got one, you’re definitely spending it for the doubles and maybe taking a hit too, depending on whether you wildcarded with this week in mind or not.
Here are the most popular Gameweek 29 targets right now. Should you buy them? Let’s discuss!
- Mitoma and March – Yes and yes. Mitoma is producing, and has been returning regularly since basically Gameweek 14 – he’s not just a flash in the pan. March has great underlying stats, and is cheaper (5.1 vs 5.5), but hasn’t been scoring quite as money. Mitoma’s better, but get March if you can’t afford him
- Isak – Yes. He’s an exciting player, and should have replaced Wilson as the starting striker now. He’s returned in back to back games against pretty stingy defences, and now he doubles. The fixtures aren’t great, but he’s excellent value regardless at only 6.7
- Bruno – Ugh. I got him in weeks ago, and he keeps smashing it in every other competition then blanking in the Prem. Looking at it neutrally… yes, he’s a good pick. He’s nailed, is in good form in all comps, and has Everton at home then Forest after his double
- Shaw – Meh. He got three cleans in four before the break, which is why he’s so popular now. But they were against Leeds, Leicester, and Southampton – three of the worst teams in the league. I don’t hate it – Newcastle and Brentford could both be cleans – but at 5.2 he’s more than I really want to spend on a defender
- Rashford – Yes, obviously
- Salah – No. He’s Salah, so he could return anyway, but City and Chelsea – both away – is an awful double
- Maddison – Yes. He got an assist in a tricky away game vs Brentford last time, and got rave reviews for England (I didn’t catch the game myself). Palace away and Villa home is a nice double, and he has Bournemouth home afterwards
- Watkins – No. He’s kicked-on massively this season, and is in great form. I just wouldn’t get him in for a double with two away games, including one vs. Chelsea
- Chilwell – No. He’s obviously a good player, and home games vs Villa and Liverpool are both fine. I just don’t trust him to either stay in the lineup or not get injured
In the Bin?
If we are all going to get in on this double gameweek goodness, we need to bin someone. Unfortunately, since most of us wildcarded recently, we have pretty nice teams right now. Still, here’s a rundown of the most-sold players in FPL right now:
- Almiron – Yes. Injured
- Saliba – Tough one. Conflicting reports on his Europa League injury. Since Arsenal only have one game this week, he might be the player you sell (even though a clean vs Leeds is likely if he does play)
- Odegaard – If you really want to sacrifice an Arsenal mid for a doubler, he’s the one I’d bin
- Kane / Haaland – No. See above
- Rashford – No, obviously
- Martinelli / Saka – I get the upside of binning them for a doubler, but I wouldn’t personally
- Son – Yes. Doesn’t double, and too much uncertainty around Spurs
- De Bruyne – Yes. Too expensive, and blanks in Gameweek 32
Captaincy Corner
It’s a really tough call this week, which means I’ll make the wrong one. In Gameweek 28 I was basically flipping a (three-sided) coin between Kane, Saka, and Toney. I went with Toney for his easy home game against Leicester. Naturally he blanked, while Kane scored and Saka demolished Palace.
The usual suspects – Kane, Haaland, and Saka – both have one game this week. They’ll probably still score, but I guess we have to go with a doubler.
Top of my list right now are Maddison and March. Their fixtures are roughly equal (Palace away and Villa home, vs Brentford home and Bournemouth away). March has a higher ceiling, and plays for the better team, and has been much better over the past two months or so. I’ll go for March, which means you should definitely choose Maddison.
(Also worth considering: Rashford because he’s great, and Trippier if you’re brave enough to captain a defender).
My Moves
Here’s the current state of play, before any transfers:
I’m in quite an awkward spot, because I’m actually pretty happy with my squad as it is, including for a bench boost. The backup goalie doubles, and Kane, White, and Martinelli could easily all get points. I guess I can move White to Botman for his double (even though, as noted, I think White gets a clean anyway), but apart from that nothing is really leaping out at me.
Whatever it is, I’ll just be making one change and rolling the second transfer. Exciting stuff, eh?!