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Greetings all, and welcome to your first slice of FPL Gameweek 27 preview goodness.
In this piece, we’ll be looking at the best fixture runs over the next five gameweeks. That’s particularly interesting in this case, because the current meta approach to using your chips is to dead-end your way into blank Gameweek 31… which is exactly when these five-Gameweek fixture runs end!
James has looked separately at the best player picks for that dead-end approach, and I’d politely encourage you to check that piece out too.
For now though, let’s stick to the fixtures themselves.
These next four fixtures are an absolute dream.
Forest just carried out their latest bimonthly sacking, West Ham at home and Wolves away are just lovely, then – unless Igor Tudor is a managerial magician – Spurs at home is also one of the best fixtures in the league right now.
Liverpool obviously aren’t having a great season, but they’ve been fine recently. In their last four games (including the FA Cup) they’ve beaten Newcastle and Brighton while scoring seven goals against them, narrowly lost to City, and won a tough away fixture at Sunderland.
Out of the actual attacking options, I like Wirtz the most. His actual returns have dropped off slightly in recent weeks, barring 12pts against Newcastle, but he did rack up 0.72 xGI away to Sunderland. His price is still fine, at 8.4, basically putting him in competition with the likes of Mbeumo. If you could somehow wrangle all of Bruno/Mbeumo/Wirtz into your midfield, that feels pretty damn good to me.
I’d struggle to back Gakpo, even if he is pretty nailed. His underlying stats have been good across the season… he just doesn’t actually get any returns. In his last seven games – all starts – he’s managed all of 1 goal and 0 assists. Terrible.
James and I both got pilloried for dissuading people from Ekitike a few weeks ago. Well, since coming back from injury he’s played five games, including four starts, and only returned in one of those games. His underlying stats have been excellent, so if you want to gamble on him that’s fine. Similarly to Gakpo, though, I wouldn’t jump on board until he actually starts returning again.
We’ve talked about Salah at length, and James mentioned him again in his piece this week. Yes, he’s returning. He’s also 14.0, I much prefer Bruno to him, and it’s hard to see how you can fit Haaland, Bruno, and Mo, and Arsenal defenders, into the same team. With Wirtz literally being 5.6 cheaper, with the same fixtures, you can’t possibly choose Mo over him.
Bournemouth have been fine for a while now, after their disappointing run in late 2025. I’m just not really interested in any of their attacking players, even with these fixtures.
Evanilson just continues to let managers down. At his price point I’d rather just have Thiago for the same money – at least he’s on pens – or save and go for Raul, or spend a bit more and get Bowen, who is actually dependable.
And… that’s about it!
City have won six of their last seven games in all comps… the only exception being the draw at Spurs, which looks increasingly bizarre in retrospect. They’ve also scored at least two goals in all of those games.
Shockingly, selling Haaland for his temporary drop in form was not a good decision – we did try to tell you (a controversial take, I know). If you haven’t got him for any reason, just buy him back in, even if you’ve lost some money in the transaction.
Semenyo continues to look like an outstanding pick, and I want him. Four goals in his last six games, and he’s playing every single minute. At 7.9, he continues to represent ridiculous value.
It’s a pretty bizarre situation where the best team in the league has no attacking players that you’d want. And yet, here we are!
Rice is about as close as it gets, but I’d rather just have Anderson for 2.2 less – he’s more reliable at hitting those 4-5pt returns, and Rice hasn’t scored more than 5pts for seven gameweeks now.
Gyokores has been better recently (at last), but there’s no way I’d take him at 8.8 over either players at that price point, like Watkins, or cheaper forwards like Thiago.
Wolves and Leeds are both excellent home games, and Spurs away will probably still be a good fixture a couple of weeks from now. Do beware of the Gameweek 31 blank, however.
I’m definitely keeping an eye on Strand Larsen.
We continue to not really have any trustworthy forwards to pair with Haaland, so – at only 6.1 – he might end up being the best value option, particularly if that frees up funds for all the good midfielders. He scored two goals in his last game, had a solid 0.37 xG in the game before that, and gets Wolves at home this week. We’ve seen he can score plenty of goals before, so – again, if it enables a move for Semenyo, for example – I don’t mind gambling on him right now.
James’s beloved Sarr has come back strong, scoring in two of his first four games. He’s right back up the cheap midfield rankings for me, and is a fun, high upside pick for dead ending into GW 31.
Meh.
Thiago’s the only one you’d actually consider here, and I just think he’s too inconsistent. One goal in his last five games. Before that explosive two-gameweek mini-run he also went six games without scoring.
If he was around 6.0 maybe I’d gamble on him, but I prefer just crossing your fingers on Strand Larsen, or perhaps even Raul; or even spending a bit more on Bowen, for example.
I like these fixtures a lot, I have to say.
Man U away isn’t great, based on their current form. Apart from that, you get Leeds, Wolves, and West Ham, plus a home game against a pretty poor Chelsea defence.
I wouldn’t say Villa have exactly been lighting it up recently, unfortunately. They’re on a run of four games scoring one or fewer goals, including playing over half a match against 10-man Brentford.
I’d still take Rogers regardless. As usual he’s outperforming his underlying stats, with 13 returns on an xGI of less than 8. But that’s what he always does, so… I continue to say that it’s sustainable!
Watkins is a tougher one, and I’d probably stay away, despite the fixtures. He’s got one return in his last five games, and his underlying stats have been pretty dire. There are far cheaper options in whom I’d feel at least as confident, if not more so.
Hmm. City are doing their usual City thing of having an excellent xGA (2nd-best in the league… 10 goals behind Arsenal’s, which is absolutely absurd), but not actually keeping that many cleans.
Still, they’re basically the only non-Arsenal defence we can even vaguely trust, and we have to find our defenders somewhere!
Guehi continues to be my pick of the bunch, simply because he seems the most likely to play all the minutes.
Nunes is pretty reliable too, but he’s a little more expensive, and his attacking returns have been ridiculously out of whack with his underlying numbers – 8 returns in total, on an xGI of 1.7. The Morgan Rogers of right-backs? Time will tell, but I don’t trust in it quite yet.
Ah, you know the drill. They’re the best defence in the league by an absolute mile.
You probably own two of their defenders already, and you should hold them at least until blank gameweek 31.
If you don’t have two of them by now, I’m still fine with just getting them in for the next four gameweeks. They’re by far the safest bet for a clean sheet week in, week out.
I wouldn’t actually trust Bournemouth to keep any cleans… because they basically never do.
As we said recently, when Chelsea had their nice defensive fixture run – it doesn’t actually matter how great a side’s fixtures are, if the defence itself isn’t actually any good.
That being said, I absolutely love Hill as a pick right now.
He’s only 4.0, and has returned four games in a row, with two of those games having xGIs of 0.26 and 0.22 (which is good, for a defender). He’s also hit his DefCons in an incredible seven of his last eight games (he got 20, against Everton!). And, if Bournemouth miraculously do get any cleans, he’s nailed and will get the points for those too.
If you want a budget defender, he’s your guy.
Nope.
They’ve kept two clean sheets in a row, including the FA Cup game against Brighton. But we’ve got the rest of the season as evidence that this is not a good defence.
If they had a cheap option, like Bournemouth, maybe I’d gamble. These are great fixtures, after all. But all their starters are in the 5.4-5.9 range, and I’d just take Hill – at only 4.0 – over those guys 10 times out of 10.
Meh.
Their defenders are at least cheaper than Liverpool’s, but I don’t really trust the defence as a whole any more. Technically they’ve got the third best goals-against in the league, but only the 10th-best (or 10th-worst) xGA, and have a middling 8 clean sheets in 26 games.
They also simply don’t have anyone I’d be interested in. Konsa is cheap but he doesn’t actually do anything – he has literally zero attacking returns, and his DefCons are awful. James quite likes Cash, but I’m not interested, especially at 4.9 – he also has very few attacking returns, and also doesn’t get DefCons.
Basically, it’s a big fat no, from me.
Fulham haven’t cleaned in their last eight games, although in fairness they’ve had a pretty tricky fixture run.
Going back a bit further, they have cleaned a few times where they were ‘supposed’ to – against West Ham, Forest, Sunderland at home, Wolves at home, Leeds at home. And, apart from Sunderland away, I’d say the other four games of this fixture run fall into that bracket.
Andersen is the only defender we can fully trust to start, and I don’t mind him at 4.5. He’s got no attacking threat whatsoever, but he does average 10.39 DefCons/90, so that’s something to fall back on even if he doesn’t get the cleans.
Right o, that’ll just about do it for this comprehensive look at your best FPL fixtures, starting in Gameweek 27.
Again, I’ve touched on it here, but this piece pairs pretty nicely with James’s article about dead ending into Gameweek 31 – so, go and check that out if you haven’t already.
Either way, thanks for reading, everybody, and I’ll be back with some transfer tips very soon indeed!
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