Gameweek 23 - Transfer Tips & Captaincy Corner

A regular game week 23 in FPL means a regular transfer tips and captaincy corner piece from me!

In case you missed it, check out my fixtures piece from earlier in the week but I can summarise pretty succinctly: uninspiring fixtures, wait until gameweek 24 (for the most part).

Spoiler alert, I expect I will be saying that a lot as I look down the list of the most common transfers of this week and give my opinion.

Let’s go!

Top News

• By the time you read this I expect Bournemouth to have signed Rayan. He’s a kid and untested at this level so ignore him for the time being. He is most likely intended to replace Semenyo so that might mean some things for others mins.
• Mateta has handed in a transfer request to Crystal Palace after Villa and Juventus expressed interest.
• Salah is back. He started in the midweek Champions League game against Marseille. Is all forgiven? Will he still be there by the end of the window? Do we need to make provision for him in our teams? I really don’t know. Many of us have a way to get Cole Palmer in the back of our minds but maybe we need to be thinking about this too.

The Caveat

Regular readers hopefully know that I am rarely trying to tell you exactly who to buy. That’s for you to decide and that’s the fun of the game!

The fun of this piece is getting a bit of advice on who the good picks are and who the duds are.

Should I Buy?

If you are asking the question, should I buy this player? Then this section is for you.

Fernandes – Maybe. I don’t think this is a good week to buy. He plays away to the best defence in the league. BUT, you will almost certainly want him next week for the good run. AND, if you have a guy you just despise and need to get rid of (e.g. Foden) then I think he is a good buy. I bought him last week and I have no regrets. As he proved, he can do the business against anyone. That being said, Man City lost to Bodoe/Glimt (of Norwegian fame) midweek with a pretty similar backline to what they played against United.

Mbeumo – No. Bruno has a whole bunch of routes to points like defcons and penalties. This guy does not. Wait a week.

Dorgu – No. I don’t think we know for sure that he is nailed on winger. And, with Mount, Cunha and Sesko in the squad I don’t think we can be sure of the minutes right now. You really can tell that Man Utd fans make up a big portion of the game with these three as the top transfers in!

Thiago – Maybe. He’s the second best forward in the game but that isn’t saying much. I really like him but I don’t really like his fixtures. Feels like your transfers are better spent elsewhere unless you need to downgrade Ekitike for the money I am not so sure about this one.

Semenyo – Maybe. He should be nailed for City for a few weeks as he is ineligible for the Champions League until the round of 16 – that’s just before gameweek 30. I’m honestly just so averse to City assets because of the rotation risk and he can still be rotated in midweek gameweek 29 and because of cups. And there is always the possibility of Pepification – taking fun players and making them boring. But the fixtures are good and so is he… I’m such a Semenyo fan boy but I’m just nervous, am I being ridiculous?

Gabriel – Yes. Best defender in the game. Would be on something like 160 points if he was fit the whole season and returned and his current rate.

Chalobah – Yes. I like the fixtures even though I think the Chelsea defence is overrated. They’re pretty mid when you look at the underlying stats. I wonder if someone did that recently? Hmm… yes. I did. See it here. Don’t buy because you think you have to. Buy because you like the next five and have need of a defender.

Rice – Yes. Maybe the best mid in the game. Almost certainly for value. Lots of routes to points and more nailed than Saka these days.

Wirtz – Maybe. He certainly looks more like the guy I thought Liverpool were buying at the start of the season. But, the fixtures aren’t great and we don’t know if Salah is coming back and what that does to the squad. I’m intrigued but I don’t necessarily want at the moment.

Enzo – Yes. Great fixtures but don’t be surprised if he is only okay results wise. The underlying numbers are amazing but I am convinced there is some noise there. This last week he got an assist of a deflection and earlier in the season he played number 10 for a bit.

Mukiele – Yes. But I’d rather have Alderete for a bit cheaper. They basically do the same anyway.

Joao Pedro – No. He’s just not very good and never has been. He was a bit of a pen merchant at Brighton and he doesn’t have that luxury at Chelsea. He’s not a proper number 9 either and I think he’s not nailed for 90.

Tarkowski – Yes. I think he’s probably a buy any given gameweek. He shits defcons and occasionally gets clean sheets. What’s not to like? Well, a lack of attacking returns to be honest, but the best central defenders only usually get those three or four times in a year. He will probably get one or two by the end of the season.

H. Wilson – Maybe. I don’t love him and he’s overperforming xG but he shoots so much (7th highest shots in the league from 17.6 90 mins) so maybe this can carry on.

Palmer – Maybe. This is one of those high upside picks that could pay off or make you look like an idiot. He seems to be permanently carrying an injury and was dreadful at the weekend outside of the pen. But then, he has pens. And he seems to play 90 every week. And he has great fixtures. I don’t hate the pick but buyer beware.

Bruno G. – No. I said a couple of weeks ago in my mini-deep dive into DMs and CM’s: “No. It’s ludicrous overperformance and he doesn’t get defcons and he isn’t on set pieces.” And my opinion hasn’t changed. [Update: He also went off injured midweek.]

Should I Sell?

If you are asking the question, should I sell this player? Then this section is for you.

Foden – Yes. I think I would sell him. But then I never bought him in the first place so maybe I am biased. You can definitely hold him for this Wolves fixture but I would rather have Mbeumo, Fernandes or Wirtz (probably) after that.

Guehi – No. Don’t sell, presumably he will slot right into this team against Wolves and presumably he is also ineligible for the Champions League until gameweek 30.

Saka – Maybe. I can forgive the frustration on the guy – he hasn’t scored a goal since GW14 and his mins no longer seem secure for 90. He played 90 mins midweek in essentially a dead rubber of a game so there is a serious likelihood he doesn’t play 90 again this week. I own him and I only have one free transfer so he’s getting a stay of execution but I will be looking very hard at him next week.

Cherki – Yes. The mins are all over the place and you don’t want that.

Rogers – Yes. I am fine with selling him, I am not a huge fan because he is massively overperforming xG (like Villa) and I don’t see how it continues. But, I was also saying that before his two 15 pointers so if you want to keep him then that’s fine. Besides, as you can see, the replacements are not exactly inspiring.

Cunha – Yes. He’s not that good, not nailed and playing away to Arsenal.

Woltemade – Yes. Not nailed.

O “how the might have fallen” Reilly – Yes. Not nailed.

Semenyo – No. I don’t see what you gain from selling City’s second most nailed attacking asset when the play Wolves?

Ekitike – Maybe. Not much to gain but money from this move. A real lack of options in attack make it hard to decide who to get for him.

Matheus N. – Yes. Mysteriously ill before playing his old club who hate him…

Watkins – Maybe – see answer to Ekitikie.

Captaincy Corner

I know he has blanked a tonne recently but I am still defaulting to Haaland. I don’t love it. I just don’t see another option I even remotely like.

The fixtures are just really not helping us this week with Burnley playing Spurs (who suck) and West Ham playing Sunderland (who don’t have an option to captain).

That’s It.

So, generally I don’t like transfers this week. And who can blame me when you look at these fixtures? Maybe just hold your nose and roll that transfer.

What do you think?