FPL Gameweek 21 Preview – Let’s Just Get Through This

We all thought we were so smart. 

We’d seen AFCON and the Asian Cup coming from a mile away. No Mo, No Problem, we said. Sonny, see you later, we said. Hwang, Kudus, Jackson? Best of luck, lads – we’ll talk when you get back. 

In FPL, the best laid plans of mice and men always go awry. 

It turns out there was basically no good time to wildcard in the last few gameweeks. There was no good replacement for Salah or Son. Did you think long and hard before jumping back on the super-expensive Trent bandwagon? Time wasted! 

Between injuries, international tournaments, and terrible form, your team is likely in shambles right now. Don’t worry – so is everyone else’s. 

Welcome, everyone, to the FPL Gameweek 21 ‘Let’s All Get Through This Together’ special. 

Selection Crises

Currently missing through either international duty or injury, we have:

• Salah
• Son
• Haaland
• Bowen
• Trent
• Mbeumo
• Hwang

You might notice that they’re all… just let me check my notes… Yep, I can confirm they’re all among the best players in Fantasy Premier League this season. 

Nico Jackson is also at AFCON.

Nkunku is likely injured too. Trippier is unpickably bad. His pal Callum Wilson is injured. De Bruyne has played all of 33 minutes since August 11th. Speaking of players who were great but haven’t played in months, Ivan Toney’s name is inevitably being thrown around. 

It’s all a big mess. 

I was quite looking forward to the Asian Cup/AFCON. This felt a particularly template-y season, and losing Salah and Son especially seemed like it would shake things up. 

Well, moving one or both of them out probably involved having Bowen or Trent in your team. If you had them already, you likely used one or two of your free transfers to bin your leaving stars. Now you’ve got at least one, if not two, if not more gaping holes in your team. 

I was quite pleased with my team, heading into the break. This is currently the lineup I’ll be trotting out for Gameweek 21:

Between form (Saka/Arsenal in general) and matchups (almost everyone else) I could conceivably see every player on my team blanking this week. I can’t remember that happening too often. 

Stick or Twist?

Right, rant over. What are we actually going to do about this mess?

Obviously, one option is to wildcard. I’ve addressed that in the next main section. 

If you don’t want to do that, you have to decide who you’re binning (and whether you’re taking hits to do so). 

I wouldn’t be aggressive with hits. I’m assuming a lot of people will be panicking and taking them. With very few good players with good matchups this week, I don’t necessarily see this working out for most people. So, by just rolling a team of 11 starting players out there, and not taking a -4, I already think you’ll be in a reasonable position. 

If you’ve miraculously got two free transfers, I’d definitely use them now. That’ll also put you in a great position. I wouldn’t hold them, for example, for a Haaland move next week. Everyone else is in trouble now – exploit them (/us)!

If you’re currently holding one free transfer, I’d still use it. Based on the way things are going right now, and how all our ‘plans’ have turned out recently, you’ve got no idea who will be available next week, never mind a good pick. Two in the hand is worth one in the bush (I’m 80% sure that expression is appropriate here).

Finally, you don’t have to transfer anyone out! If you want to hold Salah through AFCON, you can! If you want to hold Trent until he’s back, go for it! This wouldn’t normally be possible, but we’ve got so much money sloshing around this season – thanks to bargains like Palmer, Gordon, etc. – that you’d at least be able to get away with it for a few gameweeks. I’m not doing this personally – I’d rather put up as many points as I can these few gameweeks – but some of the actual, proper FPL Influencers/Experts are indeed staying patient. 

Trent

This is becoming one of the all-time FPL Troll seasons. 

Trent entered the year priced at a massive 8.0. Loads of us took him anyway, after he smashed it in the second half of last season. 

He promptly delivered three blanks, returned 12pts in Gameweek 4 after 420k managers had transferred him out, missed the next two games, then blanked for another two games. 

I’m not going to add up all the numbers, but Trent’s net transfers by Gameweek 8 were getting on for -1 million. 

(His price change through all this? -0.1. The FPL algorithms continue to baffle and amaze). 

Naturally he then proceeded to become Old Trent again. Between Gameweeks 9 and 19 he delivered one 2pter, and every other game was 4pts or above. He got goals, assists, clean sheets, bonus points. 

We all leapt back on the bandwagon, driving his price up to a ridiculous 8.4. Trippier was done for. Along with Porro, Trent was our one true premium defender. 

Naturally he got injured during the break, and will now be out for a few weeks. 

You don’t need a crystal ball to predict what will happen next. We’ll sell him, he’ll come back and be great, we’ll buy him back, he’ll either get injured or his form will drop off a cliff. You heard it here first. 

—

Right, second rant over. 

I’d sell Trent. Even if you got him back at 8.0, for example, you haven’t got that much money invested in him. He’s being heavily sold, and will surely drop at least once or twice before he’s back (surely!), if you do want to get him back later.

Also, this actually dovetails perfectly with the return of Estupinan. He and Porro should be your main defenders now – don’t overthink it. 

Alex Moreno would be next on my list. He’s an attacking full-back, Digne is injured, and Villa are good. 

After that, you’re down to the centre-backs. Gabriel and Pau Torres are probably your best shouts there, though neither of them exactly thrill me. 

—

TLDR: Trent might be back in 3-4 weeks, but who the hell knows. You could wait, but I’d be tempted to sell. He’s super expensive, and there are other good full-back options. 

Bowen

Bowen was that rarest of beasts – a reliable FPL player. Naturally, he had to get injured. It’s not his first injury this season, but he’s expected to be out for at least one month this time. 

Technically you could get away with not selling him. 

The likes of Palmer, Richarlison, and Gordon – plus not needing to spend money on Salah or Son – basically means you can afford to burn your fifth midfield spot on Bowen. If you’ve got loads of money tied up in him (he started the season at 7.0, and plenty of smart cookies will have had him for months), I totally get hanging onto him. 

That’s especially true because I don’t see any great midfield replacements. 

This isn’t a Trent situation, where I think some combination of Porro/Estu/Moreno basically makes up his production. With all respect to Hwang (I think he’s great), Gordon, et al, there was a clear Big 4 in midfield this season. We already lost Salah and Son, you’ve got Saka, and now Bowen’s injured. 

Let’s run through your potential Bowen replacements:

• I’m assuming you’ve got Palmer already. If not, he’s a safe, cheap, and obvious replacement
• Gordon has suffered with his team, and Barnes is back soon
• Douglas Luiz is fine… but also largely penalty/worldie dependent
• Diaby/Bailey are minutes risks
• Jota/Diaz are minutes risks
• Odegaard should be good but Arsenal are rubbish right now
• Gross isn’t a sexy name in FPL. But he got 17 returns last year, already has 9 this year, has good underlying numbers, has decent fixtures, and will presumably pick up some of the load without Mitoma
• Richarlison was my Son replacement. He’s been in great form, and I like the Werner signing to help him down the left

You’ll notice that there are two Man City-shaped absences here.

Foden is the second-most bought player, at the time of writing, behind Palmer. I don’t mind it necessarily. 

However nailed he seems right now, he’ll be a rotation risk pretty soon, with De Bruyne and Haaland returning to the starting lineup. But also… we’re in crisis mode here, and just need to grab as many points as we can get. Foden’s upside over the next couple of weeks is as high as anyone’s. 

I would not gamble on De Bruyne right now. 

I’d be shocked if he started next game, and Pep surely doesn’t bother risking him against Burnley in Gameweek 22. He’ll be back in contention when he is starting again, until Salah and Son get back, but now’s not the time. He’s the fourth-most bought player right now… that’s madness to me.

TLDR: Foden’s a bit of a gamble, but has the highest upside. Palmer, Richarlison, and Gross are all good replacements. I like those four far more than anyone else. 

Returnees

The whole Haaland situation remains a mess. Last we heard, he was still in pain. Knowing Pep, he could end up returning this week out of nowhere. I’m steering clear until he’s definitely coming back. Roll out whatever forward you’ve been starting while he’s been out. 

I addressed De Bruyne above. Obviously he’s amazing, and could return even in 20-30minutes of play, but it’s too much of a gamble when there are much safer (and still good) options out there. 

Pedro Neto is also back – he played 10mins in Gameweek 20. He was one of the best set-up men in the league before he got injured (a ridiculous 8 assists in 10 games), and only costs 5.6. It’s still too early to actually buy him in, however much you need a midfielder, but he’s definitely one to keep an eye on. 

Early Wildcard Corner

Generally speaking, I’d never play my wildcard this early unless I realistically had no choice. I much prefer to save this and all three of my chips for the double gameweeks later in the season. 

What qualifies as ‘having no choice’? If you’re down to around 7 starting players, without two free transfers to at least go some way towards fixing things, and you’re carrying mid-term injuries like Bowen, I don’t hate dropping your second wildcard. You’d just have to be as careful as possible about planning ahead the rest of the way. Also, it’s quite possible there’s no ‘perfect’ time to play your second wildcard anyway, just as there wasn’t with the first. 

This would be my wildcard team, if I was playing it now:

• Areola/Turner
• Porro/Estu/Moreno/Colwill/Gabriel
• Saka/Palmer/Foden/Richarlison/Gross
• Watkins/Alvarez/(Nkunku/Solanke)

The goalkeepers are basically set. Dubravka might get replaced, so you don’t want him. I wouldn’t mind upgrading Turner to Raya, with Arsenal’s decent upcoming fixtures. 

The defence is completely fine. No doubts about any of these five. 

The midfield is also fine. You don’t exactly have a lot of world-beating options right now. 

Regarding forwards, Watkins picks himself, and I’m fine with gambling on Alvarez (even with Foden. The third spot is a pain, when you’re wildcarding right now, since Nkunku might be injured, and we haven’t seen Toney yet. I’d tentatively put Solanke in, since he has decent fixtures after Liverpool, and has been on fire. That’s the spot I’d upgrade for Haaland, however.

Which reminds me… make sure you’ve got enough money in the bank for Haaland!

Transfer News

Did the Premier League finally splurge too much in a summer? We’re already a third of the way through the winter window, and only Spurs (and Jadon Sancho’s agent) seem to have noticed. 

As touched on above, I like the Werner signing for Richarlison specifically. I wouldn’t actually consider him as an option though, even as an FPL forward, and even at 6.5. His finishing was woeful last time around in the Prem. 

Spurs also have a new defender, Dragusin. But he’s a centre-back, and the Spurs defence is only good-not-great. Unless he gets priced at 4.5, we probably don’t care. 

Best Upcoming FPL Fixtures

We’ve focused specifically at the replacements for the big name casualties this week, since I’m assuming you already made your other Gameweek 20 picks ages and ages ago, like the forward-thinking FPL player you are. 

In the spirit of forward-thinking, let’s take a look at which teams have the best upcoming FPL fixtures, for a more general sense of who we’ll be interested in. 

(Home fixtures are in all-caps)

• These Brighton fixtures make Estupinan pretty irresistible. They’re not as good for attackers as defenders, but Gross is still a reasonable shout, between Brighton’s general quality and his underlying stats
• Fulham are just difficult to trust. You’ve got no idea which version of them will show up from one week to the other. Steer clear, for now
• Aston Villa have a nice run of defensive fixtures here – any of those five fixtures could reasonably be cleans. Moreno is the most exciting way in. I don’t hate a double-up with Pau, since Villa are on of the few good defences. Watkins is an auto-pick for me, regardless of fixtures
• Spurs have a nice mix of attacking and defensive potential here. Porro is another auto-pick. I’ve backed Richarlison in my own team – Man U and Brentford are both poor at the back, as are Brighton after Everton
• Man City don’t keep cleans, whoever they’re playing, so we don’t care about their defensive fixtures. Going forward they have three very nice fixtures in a row now, making (semi-) gambles on the likes of Foden and Alvarez worthwhile

Final Thoughts

Well, that’ll do it for this emergency FPL Gameweek 21 special. Get through this week, and things will presumably start looking a bit better, since they can’t really look any worse right now. 

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Good luck in Gameweek 21, everyone!