Yes, yes, we are technically reviewing FPL Gameweek 2 before the final game is played.
But! It’s a bank holiday here in the UK, meaning we’re a little pressed for time later on, and we’ll update this piece anyway after the Newcastle vs Liverpool game is done and dusted.
With that excuse out of the way…
In this piece we will look back at Gameweek 2, and see what else we’ve learned from the weekend that was.
We will look to answer some key questions like: Are Defences Back on Top? Is Reijnders a fraud? And, Who the Fuck is Mats Wieffer?
After that we’ll go match-by-match again, bringing you all the relevant FPL analysis in each case.
But first – I once again need to warn you not to make transfers or to draw too many conclusions from limited data…
Yes, we have one more week’s worth of information. But, we also have eleven teams with Carabao Cup games on Tuesday and Wednesday night. Your players may get injured, so try to resist the temptation and avoid making moves.
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING
I don’t want to say “but, this is a small sample size” after every single statement, so I am saying it here.
It’s the best we can do at this stage, and all analysis will be educated guesses, so let’s take everything with a pinch of salt.
Are Defences Back On Top?
After 19 games of football we have had 12 clean sheets.
That’s a lot! If we carry on at that rate, we would have about 240 by the end of the season.
Last season we had 178 clean sheets, and the year before we had 157. The extra injury time, improved penalties, and generally improved tactics have all positively impacted the quality of attacks over the last two seasons. The highest number of clean sheets in the last five years was 20/21, at 224.
I think this is probably just a flash in the pan. The longer-term trends point to fewer clean sheets, and there were a few freak results this weekend.
Palmer, Saka Injured
Palmer got injured in the warm-up. It’s a groin injury he was carrying all week. Maresca also hinted he’d been injured before the season started. This obviously remains one to watch, as he may still play at the weekend.
Saka has a hamstring issue. They are notoriously tricky so I expect him to miss the next game and sit out the international break. It doesn’t sound as bad as first feared, though.
Reijnders is a Fraud!
I’m joking, obviously. But I am not shocked to see him blank, and you shouldn’t be either.
Of course it is sod’s law from the point-of-view of his new owners. But it’s also the fact that he plays 8, and we know from tons of experience that it is rare that those types of players make reliable fantasy picks.
If you own him then accept that this will happen – he is super cheap, so you should be fine with a lot of blanks.
His xGI is 0.4 from two games, suggesting that he isn’t some hugely underpriced stud. Maybe he will be that guy, but I am still not convinced – he is not an essential purchase.
Gyokeres bagged two goals against Leeds. The first was a good run and finish. The second was from the penalty spot.
Unfortunately for us, as expert FPL analysts, both Saka and Odegaard had already gone off at this point. So, we don’t know for certain if he is the penalty taker.
We think he probably is on pens… but this is not definitive proof.
Who is Shooting in FPL?
xG is still too unreliable at the moment to give us a great idea of who is a good pick. Everyone is still too close together.
So, let’s look at something a little more old school – Shots and Shots on Target on FBRef.
A couple of things jump out to me:
Richarlison could be the starting forward for Spurs. He is certainly showing he deserves a run. The worst outcome from an FPL point of view would be him and Solanke sharing minutes, and neither one actually being a good asset.
Out of position Gordoncould be good. I know he showed why he isn’t a striker last week, but sheer volume will surely mean he scores, right?
Bowen might come good when West Ham get out of this bad run. Let’s hope he is sold by loads of people so we can buy him cheaper.
Richarlison, Semenyo, Strand Larsen, Cunha, Mateta and Tavernier are the only guys on this list with 3+ shots on target.
What Difference Did Defensive Contributions Make?
It is still a bit early to tell how this will shake out. But, we saw another 25 players got DefCons this week (before the Newcastle-Liverpool game).
Andersen, Collins, Lacroix and Tarkowski were among the 17 defenders who got DefCons. 3 Brentford and 3 Everton defenders made that list.
Fernandes, Damsgaard and O. Dango are the midfielders of interest among the 8 who got DeCons.
Funnily enough Anderson (the NFO mid) got 11 defensive contributions for the second week in a row, so missed the points.
So far, three more defenders and one fewer midfielder have got defcons this week, and six players have got DefCons both weeks:
De Ligt
Lacroix
Senesi
Tarkowski
Van den Berg
Wieffer
Is Mats Wieffer a Cheat Code?
That last name is the most interesting.
Wieffer is playing reverse out of position, which means he is playing as a right back but listed as a midfielder in FPL. That’s normally a bad thing, and you would think it would be here too, because he has to get 12 DC to get the two DefCons points.
But, his baseline of getting the clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles are that of a defender – so has a solid base. He has 23 of those so far this season.
AND, he has an additional eight ball recoveries this season. He actually almost matched Caicedo last year on recoveries per 90. Even his attacking stats are pretty decent for a 5.0 mid.
Of course, he only played 1000 mins off 10 starts for Brighton last year. And, I believe they are still open to signing a right-back.
Still, this is worth considering at least. Pick him up in your fifth mid spot in deep draft leagues now – everyone else can wait for wildcard.
It did for me. And I think it must have done for most, as they tended to buy both Esteve and Reinildo – that’s nine points right there.
Add in another four from Xhaka and one from Verbruggen, and I finished on 14, which is actually more than I got in my double gameweek bench boost last year – I’m very happy with that.
Gameweek 2 FPL Review – Match-by-Match
The intention this week is to be a little less intense than last week, and just focus on new things we learned.
Let’s dive in.
Man City 0-2 Tottenham Hotspurs (xG: 1.55-1.11)
Marmoush and Haaland had one big chance each. Haaland once again showed how bad he is at heading goals, with a worse miss than the one he had last week. Still, he’s got the highest xG in the league by far right now
Richarlison starts up front again. Solanke plays 15 again. Too much uncertainty about which is the starting striker, but grab Richarlison on draft if you have a non-playing third forward in case it’s him. He definitely played well here.
Shocked to see Spurs play a back four, but they did play 3 very defensive midfielders, and Palinha makes such a huge difference. He lucky to get the goal though, so don’t expect that every week, but he could be a defcon monster.
Also shocked to see Spurs looking so organised and generally excellent at the back. They didn’t look like that against Burnley. We’ll have to wait and see how Frank rotates those midfielders, and whether he sticks with Bentancur+Palinha+Sarr in easier fixtures
Kudus came crashing back to earth, in a tougher fixture, as predicted. Johnson continues to be the more reliable pick, and more realistic goalscoring threat
Not shocked to see Reijnders blank. Not only was it inevitable from a sod’s law point-of-view for those who brought him in – he’s also not automatically the new KDB, as some MoTD pundits were suggesting last week.
Maybe it was just a bad game, or maybe Trafford is bad with his feet. I think that’s why City sold him in the first place. The Donarumma… rumours have immediately intensified. Don’t go anywhere near this situation until the window closes.
The reason I didn’t buy Porro was this game. I didn’t want to bench a 5.5 defender in the second game, and I look for clean sheets first and foremost, as that should be the biggest contributor to a defender’s FPL points at the end of the season. If you have a defender that expensive you should really be starting them every game – particularly a guy like him who can get attacking returns. After this performance, though, I am thinking I made a mistake.
Rodri came on for 15. A surprisingly early return, but Pep was desperate. Foden also came on, but did nothing, and just muddles an already-busy midfield position. I don’t want any part of this Doku/Marmoush/Bobb/Savinho/Foden/Cherki/Bernardo mess
Ait-Nouri went off injured, after being one of the most-added players in FPL. Gvards not on the bench, so Ake came on instead
Bournemouth 1-0 Wolves (xG: 1.29-0.46)
Wolves only managed 3 shots, no big chances, and an xG of 0.18 in the first half (when they had 11 men on the pitch). Do we think Wolves attack is in trouble, or Bournemouth’s new defence isn’t as bad as the haters made out? Probably a bit of both. That said, the Strand Larsen/Munetsi combo has looked quite threatening at times, so Wolves’ attack probably isn’t this bad.
Pleased to see Tavernier get a goal. We called him out in our “5 players to grab on your waiver wire” piece in the newsletter (sign up now!), but he might also just be a legitimately good 5.5 mid pick.The only question you will have to ask yourself is whether he is worth taking up a Bournemouth spot, as we have lots of other nice picks there too.
Semenyo had four shots for 0.68 xG. I can’t believe he hit the bar with the first one, as it was almost already in, but the ball was coming in very fast. Continues to be a great pick.
Very frustrating that Bournemouth couldn’t put Wolves to the sword when they went down to ten men. Evanilson didn’t even get a shot off which is annoying, but he was through on goal before being fouled, and that’s why Gomes was sent off.
Don’t panic about them not getting a second though – Wolves just sat back and defended at that point. Bournemouth probably need the other team to come on to them at least a bit.
Brentford 1-0 Aston Villa (xG: 1.27-1.23)
On the face of it, that xG makes it look like Villa were hard done by. But they had almost twice as many shots as Brentford – 9 v.s. 17 – so it doesn’t take a genius to work out they were just taking poor shots. Villa had no big chances in this game.
Watkins once again had four shots, so he is still getting volume at least. Rogers had two shots too.
Brentford were hugely improved on their performance against Forest. Probably helped by the addition of O. Dango and Damsgaard and Schade’s return to fitness. Lewis Potter returned to his position as a defender, presumably R. Henry is injured again.
Dango is definitely one to watch for later in the season. Brentford’s fixtures are tough after their Sunderland game, though
This was the sort of defensive performance Brentford had last year. They just give up shit, low xG shots, and back the keeper to save them.
Burnley 2-0 Sunderland (xG 1.00-0.77)
Both of these teams are basically irrelevant with regards to FPL… so we won’t spend much time here.
This Sunderland performance was yet another reminder, if it was needed, not to overreact to Gameweek 1
Esteve and Ballard went off injured – just hold them. You shouldn’t be playing them again any time soon anyway
Dubravka saved a lot of people a lot of points with a point blank save from Mayenda.
Everyone’s favourite 4.5 forward enabler, Guiu, actually played a few minutes
Arsenal 5-0 Leeds (xG: 2.88-0.17)
(As with Sunderland, above) Another useful reminder after last Monday’s excellent performance against Everton – Leeds are a newly promoted side and are a very targetable fixture.
White is already injured and both Saka and Odegaard went off injured. Early scans suggest they are not long-term injuries but hamstring injuries are slow healers so I am quite keen to sell Saka if you own him.
Madueke started on the left to add to our confusion about who plays there. Trossard replaced Saka and Nwanieri replaced Odegaard. Nwaneri might be the backup to Odegaard this year, but Eze will probably play there for now, if Odegaard and Saka are both injured
Calafiori started again, but was replaced at 64 mins by Lewis-Skelly. I don’t know which one is nailed still, so avoid them unless you’re taking a punt in Draft
Gyokeres bagged two goals – one from the penalty spot, but both Saka and Odegaard had already gone off at this point. We think he probably is on pens, but this is not definitive proof
Crystal Palace 1-1 Notts Forest (xG 0.78-0.94)
I only caught the second half but I was really impressed with Notts Forest’s attack. That’s where I (and many others) thought they would struggle, particularly after looking at their pre-season. But they’re actually playing really well together. Ndoye has just slotted into this team, and the other attacking midfielders, whilst not prolific, are just continuing their hard work.
As I said last week, this is not the the Forest team I remember from last year. This time I want to praise their attacking football. Chelsea really struggled to break this Palace team down last week, and the second half was all Forest. New boy Igor Jesus hit the crossbar with a few minutes to go, and they should have won this game in my opinion.
Neither Ndoye or Hudson-Odoi are really FPL options. Particularly with the signings of McAtee and Kalimuendo, who both came on to replace them.
Igor Jesus and Odsonne Edouard both came on for Chris Wood and Jean-Phillipe Mateta – expect this to happen more and more as Forest bed in their new guy and Palace manage Mateta’s minutes for the conference league. Mateta is in my team and is on the chopping block. He looked exhausted and has only had one big chance in two games.
Sarr is just an excellent player. I would say think twice before some mixed fixtures, but this also looked a tricky fixture on paper. Munoz falls into a similar category. He only got 1 DC this week, but made up for that with an assist, and is just an excellent two-way FPL asset
Everton 2-0 Brighton (xG: 1.84-2.56)
Owners of Everton defenders can count themselves very lucky. Tarkowski tried to gift Brighton a goal but he of course bagged himself a clean sheet and some more defcon points. Pickford owners are the ones who are really laughing though, after he saved yet another penalty.
Barry and Grealish started this one. Two assists for Grealish, who might be excellent value at 6.5
Welbeck missed a 0.75 xG chance in the first half. Then he took the penalty instead of O’Riley and missed that too (that is 0.79 xG). He finished the game on 1.54 xG from two shots. To be fair, O’Riley also missed a big one.
Fulham 1-1 Man United (xG: 1.69-1.63)
A 1-1 game where Fulham scored both goals… I love football.
Josh King started again for Fulham, but Smith-Rowe replaced him and immediately scored. Based on the fact that Muniz started after something similar last week with Raul, I don’t think we can be confident in King starting next week.
Sesko still did not start. I would start him in your draft leagues with confidence next week. I am reasonably certain Amroim wants to give him a plum fixture for his full debut, and they play Burnley next. That’s based on something he said in an interview.
Amad started over Dalot – neither are nailed at the moment. Dorgu seems safer on the left
As expected B. Fernandes is still on penalties… but he skied this one. He’s also playing very deep – sometimes deeper than Casemiro – which isn’t really what we want to see in FPL
Cunha and Mbeumo looked okay again, but it’s hard to tell if Cunha’s numbers in particular are real given there was no striker. He got to occupy that central position for the most part, which he won’t if Sesko is playing
Fulham just look so solid. I think they’re a tough fixture for any attack in FPL
