FPL GW19 Preview - New Year's Edition

A VERY quick turnaround here so no messing about from me up top. We are going to look at Semenyo, Best Fixtures, Transfer Tips and then Captains. Let’s go!

Semenyo On His Way to City?

So here’s the situation with Antoine Semenyo: it looks like he’s on the verge of joining Man City pretty soon. There are still negotiations going on and a bunch of rumors that Liverpool might swoop in, but supposedly he wants to go to City. That makes it a bit tricky for FPL.

Basically, if we knew for sure he was going, I’d just sell him right away. Bournemouth’s next two fixtures are Chelsea away and Arsenal at home, which are pretty bad. Plus, if he’s off to Man City, he’ll just become another City winger who isn’t nailed, and nobody wants that headache. He might not even play tomorrow if they want to keep him fit for a transfer, and if he’s not fit, he won’t get sold. So he’s a bit of a problem right now.

People are still buying him, which I wouldn’t do. I own him myself and I’m torn. If he was staying at Bournemouth, I’d just hold him through the bad fixtures and then play him when the fixtures turn good again. But now that it looks like he’s leaving, I probably just need to sell him.

In these situations where there’s uncertainty and we can’t know for sure, we just have to acknowledge it. If you don’t own him, don’t buy him. If you do own him, you can either hold or sell, and neither is really wrong. It just depends on what you want to do with that spot in your team. So keep that in mind if you still have Semenyo.

Best FPL Fixtures – Gameweek 19

These best fixture runs are, as always, brought to you by our beautiful, completely free fixture ticker.

Best Attacking Fixtures

Man City are top of the list. Outside of Haaland, though, I still don’t really trust anyone too much. You can tell me I’m wrong about Phil Foden – fair enough, if you want to go there, go for it. But I’m not a big fan of guys like Doku or Cherki. They’ve had some good form lately, but I just don’t trust their minutes – basically, like I don’t trust the minutes of any of their attackers.

Next up is Newcastle. Really, I’d only look at Woltemade or Anthony Gordon. The rest of the attacking options aren’t as appealing. Those two get the most minutes, even though they’re not nailed for 90, which is a bit annoying. But given the fixture run, you might be happy to just take one of them and hope for solid returns in those 70-ish minutes. I wouldn’t double up, though—that’s just asking for a headache.

For Arsenal, it’s basically Bukayo Saka or bust in terms of attacking picks. Declan Rice isn’t really an attacking option; he’s just a steady point trickler like a less-good Bruno Fernandes. Outside of those two, I wouldn’t bother.

With Liverpool, obviously Hugo Ekitiké is the priority pick. Florian Wirtz is also an option, but we’re not sure what happens when Szoboszlai is back. Ekitiké’s definitely the main guy to go for.

Spurs are a hard avoid right now. Their attack is a bit of a mess and not settled. Richarlison might get the most minutes, but he’s inconsistent in terms of game time. Xavi’s suspended, and I’m not a fan of Mohammed Kudus either, as he just dribbles. Skip ‘em.

Crystal Palace without Ismaïla Sarr isn’t that appealing. Mateta isn’t playing 90 minutes consistently, and one of their best attacking contributors, Munoz, is injured and a defender. So just avoid them.

And Everton don’t have any good attackers available right now. They’re either injured, suspended, or off at AFCON, so just ignore them entirely.

Best Defensive Fixtures

Arsenal are just the best defense in the league, so you can pretty much always buy their players. The tricky part this week is we’re not totally sure who’s fit. Raya is fit and still a good pick even at 6 million, which I’m not a huge fan of spending, but if you’re in a pinch or on a wildcard, sure, go for it.

We think the first-choice defenders are probably available, but we can’t say for sure. I’m holding Timber and expecting him to play. Gabriel probably starts, but I wouldn’t buy him just in case he does another random 30-minute cameo. Saliba is probably your most nailed-on pick at this point, though earlier this season he was subbed at halftime sometimes for no good reason – well, the reason is Arteta hates us, obviously.

Then you’ve got Everton. Michael Keane is the flavor of the month and has been smashing it lately. I’ve had James Tarkowski all year. Keane is cheaper, but Tarkowski is more nailed. When Branthwaite is back, which we expect in mid-January, Keane might lose his spot. But honestly, Branthwaite gets injured a lot anyway, so I’d still happily buy Keane.

Newcastle’s most fun option is Lewis Hall at 5.2. He’s a bit pricey, but super attacking. He had seven assists last year – some of those were FPL assists, not real ones, but still. The trouble with Newcastle is I don’t trust their defense away from home. They just kind of suck on the road. So even though the fixtures look good on paper, I wouldn’t rush to buy a Newcastle defender.

For Man City, everyone probably knows O’Reilly is the guy right now. He’s nailed and only 5.3, and City’s defense is solid even if they do let in the odd goal. He doesn’t get a ton of attacking returns, but he’s cheap and fairly reliable. Gvardiol is a bit more expensive and has a bit more attacking output, but honestly I’d rather just buy an Arsenal defender and ignore the City options.

For Liverpool, the most nailed-on pick is Virgil. He’s the best defender they have and always starts. That said, Konaté is matching him for points right now, mainly because Liverpool’s defence hasn’t been that great, but the underlying stats are fine. So you could say they’ve been unlucky and pick one of them up if you believe they’ll improve. There’s also Frimpong, who did play 90 minutes last game and might step into a more attacking role with Salah out, but that’s more of a fun punt if you have transfers to burn.

Spurs – yeah, I wouldn’t go near them defensively. If you had to pick one, maybe Porro for attacking output. Van de Ven is cheap but his points are mostly from scoring goals, which isn’t sustainable.

Finally, Crystal Palace is still a decent defence. If you’ve got someone like Guehi or Lacroix, just keep them. If you want one, go ahead and get one. Nothing too complicated there.

FPL Transfer Tips

Should I Buy?

I’m not saying you must rush out and grab every player I mention. Instead, think of this as a guide for if you’re already looking at a certain player and wondering if they’re a good pick. If Player X is on your radar and you’re thinking, “Hmm, should I bring him in?” that’s where I come in to help you decide. I’ll break down whether I think each of these popular transfers is a yes, a no, or a maybe, and why, so you can make the best choice for your team.

Cherki – No. Fixtures are fine for Man City as always, but I still wouldn’t touch Cherki. The main problem is I just don’t trust the minutes. He’s started the last four games, but before that he was benched twice, and even when he does start, he’s subbed early. So he’s a fun player, but the minutes risk is not worth it.

Cunha – Yes for the short term. The next three fixtures are fantastic, he’s the main guy and probably on penalties. After that, it gets rough, so if you want to skip him, I get it.

Dorgu – Maybe. Look, United’s defense is a mess. He’s cheap and playing out of position, but don’t get carried away by one big haul. He’s not going to score often, and after a few decent fixtures, I wouldn’t want him in the tougher games.

Dalot – Maybe. Same logic as Dorgu. He’s attacking, but United’s defense is just not good.

Rogers – Definitely a no this week. Arsenal away is brutal. Next week, maybe I’ll still say no because he keeps defying stats, but let’s not do it this week.

Ekitiké – Yes, absolutely. He’s nailed now with all the injuries and AFCON. The team’s attacking, he’s obvious value.

Keane – Yes, good fixtures, good chance of clean sheets. Everton will lean on defence with all their attacking players out, so he’s a solid pick.

Gabriel – Maybe. No rush this week because we don’t know if he’s fully fit, but he’s a great defender on a great team, so I get why you’d want him soon.

Wirtz – Yes, I think so. Mainly because there’s a lack of midfield options. I am a bit nervous about what happens when Szoboszlai is back, but Liverpool should keep playing him.

Reece James – Absolutely not. He’ll get benched soon just to avoid injury. It’s not worth it.

Rice – Yes, you can basically buy him any time like Bruno Fernandes. Just put him in and let the points trickle in.

Calvert-Lewin – No, he’s never been this prolific, he’s old now, and I don’t think you need to chase him.

Woltemade – Maybe. I still think he’s a good pick but the minutes might not be amazing. Newcastle’s fixtures are fantastic, so either he or Gordon are the way to go if you want exposure to that. I personally won’t because the minutes annoy me.

Foden – Maybe. I’ve never been a fan because of Pep roulette and overperformance but look how that’s worked out for me. If you wanted him, you kind of missed the best run of fixtures anyway.

Schade – Maybe. I’m actually considering selling him. He’s been dreadful except for one big haul. Fixtures aren’t great coming up. However, there aren’t many options available either.

Harry Wilson – No, not good, Fulham’s not good, and he’s on four yellow cards. Unless you need expensive bench fodder, skip him.

Should I Sell?

I’m telling you to immediately dump every player I mention. Instead, consider this as advice for when you’re looking at someone in your squad and thinking, “Is it time to move this player on?” My goal is to help you figure out if it’s the right moment to sell or if you might want to hold on a little longer. I’ll give you the reasoning behind each yes, no, or maybe, so you can make a well-informed decision if you’re considering selling that player.

First off, players who are injured long-term—like Bruno Fernandes, Matty Cash, Daniel Munoz, Bryan Mbeumo, and Alexander Isak—are obvious sells. Just go ahead and sell them, no deep analysis needed there.

Timber – No. I wouldn’t sell him. We don’t have a lot of info, and we can’t really trust what Arteta says about injuries. From what I understand, it’s a minor knock and he might play the next game. So until we know he’s out longer term, it’s probably a waste of a transfer to sell him.

Eze – Yeah, you should sell him. He’s not nailed now that Ødegaard is back, so just move him on.

Foden – Maybe. I don’t mind selling him. He had a great run of points, but that’s probably going to taper off, so if you want to sell him now, go for it. You’d look like a genius if you got all those points and then sold him at the right time.

Igor Thiago – Maybe. There aren’t a lot of good striker options right now. Unless you’re moving to someone like Ekitiké or Bowen, it might not be worth it. It really depends on what you’d do with the money. I sold him last week to get Ekitiké, so I understand selling him, but it’s a maybe because he’s still probably one of the best forward options.

Bruno Guimarães – No. I wouldn’t sell. I wouldn’t buy him either, but he’s got great fixtures coming up, and you may as well hold him until he gets his fifth yellow card.

Harry Wilson – Yes. is a great sell. If you brought him in for a short-term run, now’s the time to move him out because the fixtures are turning bad.

Senesi – Yes. Bournemouth’s defense is looking bad, so sell him.

Mateta – Yes. Go ahead and sell him too. He finally got 90 minutes but didn’t do much, and the team looks tired.

Saka – No. I wouldn’t sell him unless you have a very good reason. He’s consistent and gets those double-digit hauls from time to time. I just don’t understand who is better than that.

Woltemade – No. Definitely don’t sell him before these fantastic fixtures for Newcastle. Even if you’re frustrated by his minutes, the upcoming matches are too good to pass up.

Captaincy Corner

Unlike normal, this is a fun week to consider this. Haaland is obviously a good pick like always but Sunderland have caused a lot of good teams a lot of trouble. 

Ekitke is playing against Leeds and is at home and is a good alternative. Both Leeds and Sunderland have similar xGC but Leeds underperform and Sundarland overperform that. That could mean they are actually good/bad defences OR they will revert to the mean…

That’s It.

Let me know what you think over on Reddit!