FPL Gameweek 16 - Transfer Tips

Welcome one and all to the transfer tips you need in your life for FPL gameweek 16.

Everyone having five free transfers makes this piece harder to write than normal.

You should use at least one this week so some of the maybes below could be yes’ if, in normal circumstances, it might be a luxury transfer.

Maybe even some of the no’s are yes’ if you are willing to take a short-term bet.

So, try to bear this in mind as we go through the players.

If you haven’t thought strategically about this yet then please head on over to Joe’s mini-wildcard guide to AFCON. And you no longer need to rely on my speculation about who is going as Sky has an ongoing list here.

And whilst I am plugging our content, check out my fixtures piece from earlier in the week and our excellent fixture ticker.

Then think about how grateful you are to us and how you want us to be able to continue to host this website and buy us a coffee.

The Cautionary Tale of Daniel Munoz

As much as a reminder for myself but also for you all. This is why we don’t make early transfers.

Munoz is out and getting surgery. He is expected back in mid-Jan.

122647 transfers in this week…

Weep with me for our brothers and sisters in FPL.

So Long to Salah? What Does This Mean for FPL?

Plenty of us had Salah’s AFCON exit in the back of our minds as a great time to jump on Liverpool attacking assets for cheap. Now it looks like he might not ever come back…

At the moment, we don’t know who is nailed in the attacking roles, particularly with Gakpo injured.

I think the most likely outcome is that we see Isak and Ekitike get less than 90 mins per game in the fixture silly season that is the xmas period.

I think Wirtz is probably pretty nailed but he isn’t really an option.

And, I think Szoboszlai is pretty nailed and now, at worst, the second choice penalty taker as exhibited in the Champions League this week.

Do I think any of these guys are good buys? Probably not. But the fixtures are great so if you are comfortable taking a risk then I don’t mind getting one.

Should I Buy?

If you are asking the question, should I buy this player? Then this section is for you.

Foden – Maybe. I personally will not buy him. I think the minutes are a risk and I am willing to bet that this rich vein of form won’t continue. Partly because form isn’t real. Spoilers for the rest of this list – I’d rather have B. Fernandes or Saka for nailed-ness. However, many of the best managers are hopping on so if you like the option then go for it. The fixtures are certainly good enough.

Thiago – Yes. He is probably the second best forward in the game, even at his new pricetag of 7.0. Brentford still have good fixtures and even if you are late to this party its a good party to join.

Bruno G. – No. Like Foden, I have heard others say he is a good pick but I don’t think so. Rarely are CMs good picks in FPL and that is still true this year with defcons. I thought Bruno G would be one of the big beneficiaries of this but he only has two defcon returns all year and his underlying attacking numbers are less than impressive. I wouldn’t spend 6.9 on him.

Fernandes – Yes. The guy has everything. He is nailed, on pens, has good underlying numbers and has four defcon returns so far this year. Buy.

Cash – Maybe. Villa’s defensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they have an excellent defensive coach so I don’t mind the defensive pick. I am not a huge fan of Cash and his underlying attacking numbers bear the reason. However, he is capable of them and is cheap enough to bench in 18 and 19 so I don’t mind the pick. Consider Pau too who is mega cheap.

Dewsbury Hall – Yes, as an enabler. If he is your fifth mid you can bench and only play in good fixtures then yes. If you plan to play him every week then no.

Chalobah – No. He is lucky to have three attacking returns, even though I personally think their set piece play is better this year. And the fixtures are not good.

Wilson – No. He isn’t that good, plays for a bad attacking team, has a risk of being benched and rarely lasts 90 mins. So, I don’t care about the fixtures. Get Dewsbury Hall or Xhaka instead if you want enablers (though bear in mind the latter is on 4 yellow cards).

Timber – Yes. He is the most nailed on and best defender in the Arsenal team. We don’t know if Saliba is fit, we don’t know if Mosquera or Hincapie will play and Calafiori is suspended. Easy way to move off Munoz and a move I have already made.

Rice – Yes. Unlike Bruno G. he does get defcons. The underlyings are not amazing but with so many routes to points he remains a good pick.

Raya – Yes. The best keeper in the game. I can’t afford him with one move so won’t get him but I understand why others are.

Guehi – No. Palace play against Man City this week. Just wait a week.

Saka – Yes. The most nailed attacking asset at Arsenal and on pens. Fixtures look good and a possible captaincy option this week. Probably my captain.

Andersen – Yes. Possibly the best 4.5 (now 4.6) defender in the game. Reasonable defence and good defcon numbers.

Rogers – No. Long-term readers will know I am not a huge fan. He’s a great player but Emery ball is conservative and most of his attacking returns come from low xG chances. He somehow seems to overcome this and return anyway but the fixtures aren’t good.

Eze – No. Good fixtures but he isn’t nailed and rarely lasts 90. Particularly with Odegaard back, I expect his minutes to not be consistent.

Calvert Lewin – No. He is a bad player.

Merino – No. He is not nailed.

Gvardiol – Maybe. Personally I won’t because Pep roulette and City seem intent on always concdeding. But, good player with good fixtures.

Woltemade – Maybe. I am not blown away by this guy. He is hitting his underlying numbers and only has 56 points. Spend your money in midfield or defence instead. Plus, Wissa has been left out of the AFCON squad so he will be around providing competition.

Raul – No. I know a bunch of guys like Andy at the considerably more successful Let’s Talk FPL channel think he is a good short-term bet with Muniz injured and Burnley, Forest and West Ham in the next three. I agree the minutes should be good but I don’t love the pick, particularly as you are just gonna sell him again soon – two transfers for this guy feels like a lot. On the other hand, if you wildcard in 19 he’s a great choice.

Should I Sell?

If you are asking the question, should I sell this player? Then this section is for you.

Mbeumo – Maybe. I think there is a reasonable chance he plays on Monday but obviously he has to go after that as he is leaving for AFCON soon.

Mateta – Yes. He isn’t playing 90 mins anymore and plays City this week. He may also be injured but I suspect it was just fatigue and he will start and score this week to make people like me curse his name one more time.

Munoz – Yes. Medium term injury. Get rid.

Semenyo – Maye. I am a little surprised to see so many transfers out but I think he is most people’s makeweight to get Foden. I am going to hold him through to GW 18 after he plays Burnley and simply reassess then. I am inclined to sell him with poor upcoming fixtures after that but the minutes should be good so there is that to consider.

Joao Pedro – Yes. He isn’t that good and I feel like a fool for being suckered in by him earlier in the season.

Calafiori – No. He is only suspended for one week. Hold a nailed guy in a good defence.

Caicedo – Yes. He isn’t very good and is suspended.

Woltemade – Maybe. I don’t mind selling him for Thiago or, to make funds, to Guiu but I am not sure where else you go.

Eze – Yes. Not nailed.

Minteh – No. I am not as in love with this guy as Joe is but he has some great fixtures outside Arsenal away in 18 and you can just bench him then.

Gabriel – Yes. He is injured.

Welbeck – Yes. He is not nailed, particularly in fixture pile up.

Virgil – Yes. Sadly. Yes. I love the guy but even I can’t defend the Liverpool defence at the moment.

Senesi – Maybe. He is fine to bench this week and play in 17 for Burnley at home (the best fixture in the league) but after that he probably has to go.

Enzo – Yes. Particularly with Palmer back-ish as he won’t have pens.

Ndiaye – Yes. Not a great fixture and then he is off to AFCON.

Reijnders – Yes. Remember when I said I didn’t like Foden for mins risk? Remember when this guy was flavour of the month?

Saliba – No. He might be back this week and, if not, the week after.

Captaincy Corner

I am going to go mad this week and not captain Erling Haaland. I really like the Palace defence and I think they can limit this City team. However, he is always a good pick and his ownership is ludicrous so you know this is a risk.

I think the upside of having Saka is worth that risk though. Wolves are the worst team in the league.