FPL Gameweek 16 - Fixture Focus

We are staring down the barrel of a pretty ordinary looking week in FPL gameweek 16 which is a welcome relief for two part-time bloggers.

So, in our first piece of the week we’re doing a little dive into the next five gameweeks because, let’s face it, anything beyond that is just crystal ball territory.

Five weeks is a sweet spot for a decent medium-term look to identify some great picks for your FPL team.

Best FPL Fixtures (Ticker)

See what I did with that title there?

Unless you have been living under a fantasy rock then you should be familiar with our free fixture ticker.

We have taken those ratings and grabbed the best fixtures for the next five gameweeks.

Best Attacking Fixtures

Liverpool

Not a whole lot of amazing attacking options right now. It looks like Salah’s on his way out of the club (either way he is definitely gone for AFCON). That leaves Gakpo as probably the best shout. He is likely to benefit from Salah’s absence and he’s shooting a ton when he plays and has the 4th highest number of shots in the league. At 7.5 million he’s a pretty decent bet now (OF COURSE AS SOON AS I PUBLISH THIS HE IS CONFIRMED INJURED). Szoboszlai’s okay if you want someone nailed on at a cheaper price, but his numbers aren’t very enticing. Wirtz is too pricey and probably needs more time to bed into the PL. Isak and Ekitiké are just not reliable minutes-wise because they compete for the same spot and Isak, at least, is somewhat injury-prone.

Man City

There’s this guy Erling Haaland – you might have heard of him but he’s quite a niche pick. Besides him, there’s Foden, who everyone loves right now. Personally, I’m not sold. His current form looks more like a hot streak than something sustainable with five goals from 2.07 xG. He’s been a consistent part of City’s team since GW 4 and thats the last time he scored (besides these recent goals). And when I know Pep will just randomly rotate him for no reason soon I can’t bring myself to go anywhere near him. However, a decent number of managers better than me are going there so I don’t think he is a terrible pick. The other guys, like Doku or Cherki, are not nailed so avoid them.

Newcastle

It’s really all about Nick Woltemade if you want someone with reliable minutes. The rest are rotating – Barnes, Gordon, Murphy and Elanga. Bruno Guimaraes can spike a big return every now and then so I liked Joe’s pick on free hit last week. He has finished in the top 25 for midfielders in the last two years too. BUT, none of us owned him back then for good reason and he has only hit DC twice in 14 games.

Arsenal

Saka’s the man and he always was. He is currently 6th in the league for xGI even though he has only played the equivalent of 10.8 90s this year. He’s worth the money over Rice if you can afford it but Rice is fine if you need a cheaper route. He’s basically the only CM/DM that I trust because he’s okay at lots of things (DC, good defence, good on set pieces). I wouldn’t go near the other Arsenal mids or forwards right now because rotation is just a headache with Odegaard and Eze competing for one spot and Trossard and Martinelli competing for the other. The forwards are problematic too with Merino being amazing but Gyokeres fit and Havertz close to fitness too.

Crystal Palace

With Sarr injured and/or on his way to AFCON it’s only really Mateta who is an option in this team. The trouble is, he has only played 90 once in the last four games as he has been hooked around the 60th minute every week. As you can probably tell by the name of the website, we like guys who are nailed for 90 mins and I just don’t think he is at the moment with all their European and cup football. Glasner either has no depth or simply refuses to play his backups (depending upon your point of view). I would say Munoz is just the best option but even he is injured…

Spurs

They’re a mess. I can’t figure them out, and their xG is awful. I would love Simons to be great or Solanke to return from injury, but nope – just avoid for now.

Bournemouth

Semenyo’s fine to hold, not a must-buy or anything but I do think the sheer number of sales is a bit of an overcorrection. Whilst I like the fixtures, I don’t love them and will consider selling him in gameweek 19 ahead of Chelsea and Arsenal. I don’t really like Evanilson because he’s just not been very good. And with those bad fixtures down the line it doesn’t feel worth it.

Brentford

Thiago’s great in case you didn’t know. He’s obviously been lucky with pens but that’s why you get pen takers! The underlying numbers are good and he is pretty nailed for 90, especially with Dango going to AFCON. I know some are considering Dango as a one week punt but I think that’s a bit of a waste of two of your five extra transfers. Schade is suspended this week so avoid him but not a bad option after that.

Best Defensive Fixtures

Arsenal

They’re the best defense in the league right now, and you’d have to be a complete moron not to have at least one Arsenal defender (i.e. me). With my five frees, I am indeed buying my first Arsenal defender this week! I’m leaning towards Jurrien Timber because he’s super nailed, can play multiple positions, and with Gabriel’s injury, he’s about as locked in as you can get.

You could take a short-term punt on someone like Hincapié for a few weeks. The only trouble being that Arteta’s a lying bastard, so I wouldn’t trust what he says about who’s fit. If you want a second-best option then it is probably Calafiori. Raya in goal is an option too, though at 6 million it feels like a lot, and I just hate using transfers on keepers.

Liverpool

I just sold Virgil van Dijk and I don’t regret it. Their xGC is still decent (fifth best), but they’re underperforming badly. Virgil’s the only nailed option, and I’m just tired of looking at him in my team. If you have him, fine, but I wouldn’t go buying him.

Man City

You’ve got O’Reilly (yep, everyone’s talking about him), but again, I’m not really interested in their defenders because who knows if they’re nailed. O’Reilly’s probably the safest bet with Aït-Nouri heading off to AFCON, but it’s City – Guardiola could do anything. Dias is usually the other safe guy for mins but I’m staying clear.

Everton

They finally have another good run of fixtures. I’ve been on the Tarkowski hype train since day one. He’s a great pick (only five points behind Timber) and always pops up with defensive contributions. Maybe don’t buy him this week, but from gameweek 18 onwards, he’s golden. Keane is a maybe. If Branthwaite gets fit then he likely takes that spot back.

Newcastle

Dan Burn is your guy. He’s mega nailed, Eddie Howe loves him, and he plays all over the back line. Malik Thiaw is also looking pretty locked in now. If you’re feeling spicy, Lewis Hall is back fit and could be a great pick, but I’d be cautious because he might get rotated to manage his minutes – probably one for FPL draft.

Aston Villa

Matty Cash is back on the menu. Villa have good fixtures and Cash has some attacking upside. Pau Torres is super cheap (4.3!!!) and super nailed, so he’s a solid option too. Same with Konsa at 4.4. They’re both not great at defcons though. Villa are just quietly really good defensively now, and I’m not questioning it because their manager is a genius and a boring defensive guy,

Brentford and Fulham

I’ve lumped these teams together as they are basically the same. Brentford’s xGC for the season is 19.65 and Fulham’s is 19.63 and they have both conceded 24 goals. Fulham have eked out three clean sheets to Fulham’s two. They have nice fixtures but to be frank – they suck. I thought Fulham might push on this year defensively but they’ve actually regressed. That being said, Andersen is the best defensive option from either of these teams because he is 4.5 and has 18 defcon points. Collins at Brentford is the next best option but you need to part with 4.9 for him and he only has 16 defcon points for the year and currently has the same points total as the 3.9 Esteve from Burnley – I’m not blown away with that.