FPL Gameweek 13 Preview – Haaland Out, Captaincy Matrix, and More!

Greetings all, and welcome to your FPL Gameweek 13 preview. 

I’ll be honest, I completely forgot it was a Friday deadline this week, so this will be a slightly less chatty preview than usual. I’m sure you’ll all be gutted at my lack of rambling. Maybe I’ll still ramble a little bit… let’s find out together!

Haaland Out?

Yes, it’s boring, and it’s been talked about to death.

Unfortunately he’s still Erling Haaland, and is still owned by 54% of players (albeit this is a massive drop over the past free weeks). 

We all know he’ll end up winning the Golden Boot one way or another. He’s also just not scoring much in the Premier League… he’s scoring in every other competition, and is shooting non-stop in the Prem… but just isn’t scoring many goals!

So, it makes logical sense to keep him. Obviously, the floodgates will open sooner or later, the true believers will end up with a hat trick, and everyone else will be scrambling to get him back in. 

But, as someone who has kept the faith for weeks now… I’ve had enough. I’m selling.

He’s just too expensive not to be scoring every single week. That money can be put into so many other good players. As my partner-in-crime James has said several times, you can literally afford 5/6 of the other top FPL players over the last 50-or-so games if you don’t have Haaland. 

Also, if you have been thinking about selling – like me – now is the perfect time to do so. Liverpool away is as tough as they come, and Forest are one of the league’s best defences. 

Finally, as the next section shows, you can get away without him in captaincy. There are other excellent, highly-owned options all the way up until around GW 19, all of whom have arguably better fixtures than Haaland.

Captaincy Matrix

All credit to James for this one. He loves looking ahead for captaincy – loves it, I tell you – and has you covered all the way up until GW 21 here. 

The point of this is basically to easily show you the best player/matchup combos. So, you can make sure you’re covered with excellent captaincy options indefinitely. 

As noted above with Haaland, for example, you’ll see that – even if you sell him now – you have other great choices… basically until GW 21. 

Best Attacking Fixtures

With no more international breaks for ages, we can really look ahead now across the mid-term. To that end, here are your top attacking fixture runs across the next five gameweeks. 

(Home games are in caps)

• I don’t trust either Man U or West Ham, so wouldn’t back any of them. I absolutely love Bowen in general, but they’ve just been so awful up until that Newcastle win
• Brighton look very tasty. I absolutely love Joao Pedro as a pick right now. He’s returned from injury in great form, and is only 5.7. Minutes are technically a concern… but he’s just got 2 goals and 2 assists in fewer than 90mins combined, in his last two games, so he’s getting the job done regardless!

• For Villa, it’s still Watkins or nothing. I still don’t really trust him, and he’s not that cheap, and there are so many other good forwards who are both cheaper and in better form
• I don’t love Spurs’ fixtures anywhere near as much as the rest. I’m also not sure I love their players more than others at similar price points – Son vs Palmer, for example, Solanke vs Cunha, etc. Maddison is probably the best value, at 7.6 – once Mbeumo’s fixtures turn, he and Bowen will be the only mid-priced mids I’d really be interested in

Best Defensive Fixtures

With the attacking fixtures wrapped up, let’s flip the coin and check out the top defensive matchups over the next few gameweeks. 

• I’m not interested in Bournemouth’s defenders, nor do I really back them to keep cleans
• I’d be more tempted by Brighton. They should’ve cleaned last week, and face a series of pretty crap attacks. Estupinan feels like nice value at 5.0, or I’d be happy with Verbruggen/a centre-back, if you’ve held onto your wildcard

• City and Liverpool play each other this week, so you shouldn’t bring in any of them

• Arsenal are probably still the best defence in the league, whatever the stats say. They’ve also got pretty good matchups for ages now. Timber is the best value, and I’d take Saliba over Gabriel just as the slightly cheaper option (and Gabriel keeps being almost-injured)

Should I Buy?

Looking at the most-bought players in FPL, ahead of Gameweek 13, and don’t know whether you should buy one? Let’s find out!

• Cunha – Yes. He’s in ridiculous form, has good fixtures for the next 7 weeks, and is only 7.0

• J Pedro – Yes. As discussed above, Brighton have nice fixtures, he’s great, and he’s ridiculously cheap at 5.7

• Saka – Yes. He dipped in form like most Arsenal players, but he was great against Forest, and now has a lovely run of fixtures

• Salah – Yes… obviously

• Porro – Maybe. If you’re spending this much I’d prefer Timber, for the much greater chance of clean sheets. He’s by far the best attacking defender right now though, and Spurs’ attacking fixtures are nice

• N Jackson – Maybe. I’m waiting a week until after the Villa game, then getting him for Southampton onwards

• Maddison – Maybe. Technically there’s some minutes risk, but after his great game against City, and getting rested against Roma, I’d assume he starts this week. If so, he’s been an incredibly consistent asset since the start of last season

• Gabriel – Maybe. His fixtures are good, he plays for a great defence. But I’d prefer Saliba now at 0.2 cheaper, or Timber at 0.7 cheaper

• Ait Nouri – Maybe. He’s not actually that cheap any more, at 4.8, and his underlying attacking stats have been rubbish for the past few weeks. Nice fixtures though, and Wolves’ defence is probably better than it looked to start the season

• Palmer – Maybe. Yes over the long-term, but he’s clearly not in-form, so I’d prefer to wait until after the Villa game, and get him for Southampton

• Mitoma – Yes. He plays for a very good team, has excellent attacking fixtures, his underlying stats are solid, he’s reasonably priced at 6.4, and he’s only 6% owned

• Isak – Yes. I don’t care that he blanked in a decent matchup – he’s still probably the second-best striker in the league, always has excellent underlying numbers, and Palace away is a fine fixture

Should I Sell?

Now let’s take a look at the most-sold players in FPL, ahead of Gameweek 13.

• Haaland – Maybe. Discussed at length, in the first section of this article!

• Luis Diaz – Yes. Definitely isn’t nailed, plays City this week, and there are many other midfield options (including Maddison, at the same price)

• Gvardiol – Yes. City don’t keep cleans, they play Liverpool this week, and he’s pricey. I’d much prefer an Arsenal defender, or dropping down to a cheaper option

• Jimenez – Yes. There are just too many other good cheap forwards. Joao Pedro has much better fixtures, for example, at the same price

• Semenyo – Maybe. He’s suspended this week, but he’s still good value (even if his underlying stats are far better than his actual ones), and Bournemouth have nice fixtures. Hold if you can

• ESR – Maybe. He’s cheap, and probably quite easy to hold… but Fulham’s fixtures are turning big-time, so you’re unlikely to be starting him much anyway

• Trent  – Yes. Isn’t delivering attacking returns, he’s super expensive, and Liverpool have City and Newcastle back to back now

• Welbeck – No. He’s still starting, Brighton’s fixtures are excellent, and he’s cheap. Keep the faith!

• Wood – No. You can’t sell before he plays Ipswich at home. Move him after that, when Forest have several tougher games in a row

Captaincy Corner

It’s definitely Salah this week, if you’ve got him. His stats are good against City in general, even when they’re… City. Right now they’re just all over the place – this feels like a great matchup.

I don’t really love the matchups for any of the other usual suspects. You could gamble on JP against Southampton, for example, or a Mbeumo/Wissa against Leicester… but Salah is both safe, and has enormous upside. I wouldn’t really look past him. 

My Moves

I’m finally doing it – I’m binning Haaland. 

I’ve got three transfers, but I’m only using two this week – Haaland to Isak, and Stewart (my enabler forward) to JP for the Southampton game. 

I’m saving one transfer, so will have two next week for another double switch. I’ll bin Mbeumo and Wissa after their Leicester game this week, and get Palmer and Jackson for Southampton. 

It all sounds so completely foolproof, that I’m genuinely intrigued to see how it’ll go wrong!

Final Thoughts

Well, that’ll do it for your FPL Gameweek 13 preview.

Best of luck out there, everybody, and may you all do well… but slightly worse than me!