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In this FPL Gameweek 10 preview we take a quick look at the Carabao Cup before turning to transfer tips and captaincy.
Let’s go!
Brentford, basically started their second team, so there’s no real concern about injuries or anything. Schade came on for 30 minutes, but again, nothing to worry about.
Fulham ended up having to win on penalties. They didn’t play extra time because in the Carabao Cup, it just goes straight to penalties these days. They used more of a first team than Brentford but not exactly the full first team.
Joachim Andersen didn’t feature at all, not even on the bench, so that’s one to be a bit concerned about and probably not someone I’d pick up right now.
Bukayo Saka showed that he can actually score, of course, when it doesn’t count. Arsenal basically played a backup squad, but Gabriel, Timber, Saka, Rice, and Trossard all came on for a bit. The main note is that Saliba wasn’t involved at all, suggesting he might be out for the weekend.
Brighton played a semi-rotated squad. Minteh didn’t start, which suggests he’ll probably start on the weekend. Welbeck did play, but I don’t trust him anyway.
Liverpool lost but they also used a backup eleven with some odd choices like Andy Robertson in the centre of defence.
Palace had more first-team players on the pitch. Munoz and Sarr started, which is a bit annoying if you wanted them fresh, but Sarr scored twice, so there’s that. Chris Richards might be injured, so hold off on him if you don’t have him.
Man City didn’t start Haaland or bring him on, which is nice. It’s hard to sat they played a backup team as there’s always too much rotation risk with them.
Chelsea somehow conceded three goals to this Wolves team. They got another red card – Delap this time – and he’ll have to serve that in the Premier League, which makes João Pedro less appealing because he could play 9 again and he is bad at that. Chelsea also rotated so f you have their assets, they’re fit.
Newcastle used a pretty mixed squad. I’m uncertain about who their first-choice centre-backs are – in this game it was Schar and Thiaw. Gordon didn’t start, which probably means they’ll start on the weekend.
Spurs also rotated, and there was a bit of a strange midfield setup, but the key thing is Kudus didn’t start, although he did come on, so he should be fresh. And that’s pretty much it.
In this section we are trying to pre-emptively answer your question: “should I buy x?”
Mbeumo – Yes. He has reasonable fixtures and good underlying numbers (4th best xGI in the league so far; 3rd most shots taken). And, he plays on a good attack (2nd best xG in the league so far). He probably won’t continue at the rate he is scoring but he is still a good pick. He will go to AFCON in gameweek 16 but it is too early to be concerned with this guy.
Mateta – Yes. He plays on the best attack in the league (according to xg so far) and is second best in the league for xG himself too. Gameweek 10 is a great hop on moment for Palace assets too. Sarr is also a great option and is basically playing as a second striker for this team. His underlyings aren’t that far from Semenyo’s for context.
Thiago – Maybe. I really don’t like the next two fixtures but his underlying numbers are extraordinarily good – 7th in the league for xGI. When I sell Gyokeres in a couple of weeks, this is the guy I will look at first. I do think you should probably consider putting the money into your midfield instead at the moment too. The options there are just better. And then come back to Thiago in gameweek 12 or 13. If you don’t want to do that then yes you can buy him as the best cheap forward.
Woltemade – Maybe. I said earlier in the week that I am concerned about his minutes when Wissa returns and I still am. But, I appreciate there are slim pickings in attack and I think I am probably being a bit too cautious on Wissa’s return – it should be a problem we deal with when it arises. He’s also putting up decent underlying numbers at 0.57 xG per 90. I’d rather have Mateta though.
Gabriel – Yes. He is the most nailed defender in the best defence in the league. He gets chances from set pieces for the best set piece team in the league. And he is doing okay on defcons too. Timber or Calafiori are also very good options with attacking threat. Ignore Saliba until we see him play 90 more consistently. And, I really don’t like transfers for goalkeepers so don’t get Raya.
Welbeck – No. He hasn’t been nailed for Brighton in years and at 34 I don’t think he is nailed now either. I like the fixtures but I like Minteh more for mins. His underlyings are a little worse than Welbs but he also gets more points for goals and can get clean sheet points if Brighton ever keep a clean.
Rice – No. He is going to have hot moments like this in the season but, on average, he won’t match this current performance – he is currently outperforming his xGI by almost 100%.
Van de Ven – No. I like him way more as a pick than I did at the start of the season but I don’t like the fixtures. For the money, get Keane instead – he has much better fixtures.
Mukiele – No. The Sunderland fixtures look bad from now on. Don’t get him.
Guehi/Munoz/Lacroix – Yes. I like them all – probably Munoz the most because of his crazy attacking threat. Richards might be injured so avoid for now.
Caicedo – No. He is fine but not good. I don’t hate him because of how good he is on def cons but I think Minteh is a better option right now for about the same price. Or Sarr for a bit more money.
Semenyo – No. Don’t buy players when they are about to play again Man City away.
Eze – Yes. I like this pick still. With Odegaard injured then he seems nailed at the number 10 role. But, I also like that he is probably the best left-wing option.
Gakpo – No. I really like the pick – 4th most shots in the league, 6th best xGI. But, he plays against City next week and I hate that. Wait until after that.
In this section we are trying to pre-emptively answer your question: “should I sell x?”
Joao Pedro – Yes. Yes. A million times yes. The bastard tricked me but he has shown his true colours. He doesn’t shoot. I hate him.
Reijnders/Doku – Yes. Nobody at Man City is a good pick except for Haaland – none of them are nailed.
Salah – Maybe. I know he has been poor but if you still have him I would probably hold him until gameweek 16/AFCON starts. The reason this is a maybe is because you are probably freeing up loads of money and it might enable a great move.
Kudus – Yes. I am not a big Kudus guy. He always looks great on the ball but the final product is frequently not there. That hasn’t been true this year but he has been overperforming his underlying numbers and the fixtures are no longer good.
Gyokeres – No. It’s gonna be unpopular to say this because of how shit he has been but you cannot sell him just before he plays Burnley and Sunderland.
Virgil – No. I would just hold him for the good fixtures now. They are not far away now.
Richarlison – Yes.Bad fixtures, not nailed. Get rid.
Grealish – Maybe. Fine to hold for one week but I’d probably get rid after that anyway.
Enzo – Yes. With Delap now fit that means Joao Pedro can step back into the number 10 role and Enzo can go a bit deeper. When Palmer is back in a couple of weeks he loses pens too. You don’t need to rush to sell but he’s fine to go.
Gakpo – Maybe. But I don’t think I would sell. I guess I can see it if he is your route to Sarr and money but the good fixtures are so close now and he has been excellent this year.
B. Fernandes – No. I don’t think you need to sell the guy with the third most xGI of the season. He is even 8th in non-pen xGI.
Senesi – Maybe. I really don’t mind selling Senesi. I am considering it too given how bad the next two are and, as I wrote about before, you don’t get many defcons against bad teams or Man City. BUT, the two fixtures after that are so good so I will probably hold.
Maybe I should rename this Haaland’s House because he is the guy we will always default to at the moment, for what I hope are obvious reasons. Bournemouth are a great team but they are also attacking which means they leave space for Haaaland to exploit.
The other guy to consider is Saka away to Burnley but Arsenal are not that interested in scoring more than one goal. So, I don’t know whether this will be a blow out and I don’t trust him enough at the moment.
I hope you enjoyed the FPL Gameweek 10 transfer tips. If not, come and tell me why I am an idiot on Reddit.
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