fpl fixture ticker ratings october 2025

Live FPL Fixture Ticker Ratings Update - October 2025

Greetings all, and welcome to the first major update for our FPL 25/26 fixture ticker ratings. 

We created this free FDR tool in the preseason. Our initial ratings were based heavily on stats from recent seasons, mixed in with the latest transfers, and some good old-fashioned common sense.

We don’t want to update the ratings too often, and overreact to short-term trends. 

This feels like the right time, however, to make our first major changes. 

Below, you can see our reasoning behind the rises and falls of our attacking and defensive ratings. Where appropriate, we’ve also explained why some ratings have stayed the same.

You can check out our updated FPL fixture ticker, in all its glory, right here. 

 

Attacking Changes

  • Aston Villa – 3.5 → 3.0

They’ve been a bit better recently, and have at least been getting results. But they’ve been poor overall across the first seven weeks

  • Everton – 2.0 → 3.0

They’re a bit better than we thought, and are middle of the road, for both xG and actual goals – hence the middling 3.0! Grealish and Dewsbury Hall have definitely helped

  • Forest – 2.5 →1.5

Just awful. 4th-worst xG in the league, and the joint fewest goals scored

  • Leeds – 1.0 → 2.0

Definitely better than expected. They’re lower-mid table, for both xG and goals and recently scored two against Bournemouth and one against Spurs. They’re obviously still not great, but 2.0 feels fair 

  • Sunderland 1.0 → 1.5

Like Leeds, they’re not as bad as we thought. Middling/mediocre xG and returns, but they haven’t been awful. They have had an easy schedule though, so let’s also not overreact yet

  • West Ham – 2.5 → 1.5

Absolutely rubbish. They’re a one-man show in attack, with Bowen carrying the load. Nuno might tighten things up at the back, but it’s doubtful he improves this terrible attack

  • Wolves – 2.0 → 1.0

The worst xG, and the fewest goals scored. It literally doesn’t get any worse than that!

 

Notable Attacking Non-Changes

  • Arsenal – 4.0

The 3rd-highest xG, and the 2nd-most goals… but the 5 goals against Leeds throws that out of whack. 4.5 potential, with their recent tactical changes, but let’s hold off for now

  • Liverpool – 5.0

They haven’t looked great recently, but it’s too early to downgrade them, and adding Isak will become a big positive sooner rather than later

  • Man City – 5.0

Not super-explosive, for the most part. But they’ve got an unstoppable striker, and are still one of the few teams regularly capable of putting 5 past a team

  • Man U – 3.0

2nd-highest xG in the league… but they also massively underperformed their xG last season. And, if you’ve watched them play, you’ll know they’re not actually that good going forward

  • Newcastle – 4.0

This one is definitely more art than science! They had injuries and suspensions early, and tough fixtures. They’ll be down to 3.5, if things don’t get better, but they’ll probably be fine

  • Palace – 3.5

They’ve got the highest xG in the league, but this isn’t actually converting into goals. Positive regression isn’t guaranteed, as we’ve seen with Brighton over the years… or with this next team!

  • Spurs – 3.5

They’re definitely flattering to deceive, so far, outscoring their xG by over 5… which is ridiculous!

 

Defensive Changes

  • Brentford – 3.0 → 2.5

They’re not ‘awful’, but they are pretty poor. Both their xG and actual GA are mediocre

  • Forest – 4.0 → 1.5

Abysmal. Nuno’s firing has been devastating. 2nd-worst xGA, despite Ange trying to play relatively defensive tactics

  • Fulham – 4.0 → 3.5

Disappointing so far. Middling xGA, mediocre GA, and they haven’t looked great recently. Not as good as expected, right now

  • Leeds – 1.0 → 2.0

Better than expected. 5th best xGA in the league. Conceded 5 in 1 game vs Arsenal, and only 6 in the other 6 games combined

  • Liverpool – 5.0 → 4.5

Worse than expected. Middling xGA and GA, and have looked dodgy live too, especially against Palace

  • Man U – 3.0 → 2.5

Could really be a 2.0. Rubbish on the eye test, 4th-worst xG, 6th-worst GA, and that’s all with around 40mins against a 10-man Chelsea, before Casemiro got himself sent off

  • Newcastle – 4.0 → 4.5

Best xG in the league, 5 GA in 7 games (the joined 2nd-best), and have played Arsenal, Bournemouth, and Liverpool already

  • Spurs – 2.5 → 3.0

Definitely better than expected, but we don’t want to overreact too much yet. They’ve been worse recently, since their great start, and are overperforming their xGA by almost 4 goals

  • West Ham – 2.5 → 2.0

Have been rubbish, but we also don’t want to overreact too much here. Worst in the league for GA, but they’re underperforming their xGA by almost 3 goals, and Nuno will definitely help

  • Wolves – 2.5 → 2.0

Definitely bad, but might not be that bad. Underperforming their xGA by 4 (worst in league, by far), and just held Spurs and Brighton to 1 goal each

 

Notable Defensive Non-Changes

  • Bournemouth – 3.5

Excellent xGA, and looked great early. But they have been a bit shakier recently, and their actual GA has been good, but not great  

  • Burnley – 2.0

Still feels like a wait-and-see. Worst xGA and GA in the league, but that’s skewed by the City and Spurs whoopings. Probably will get smashed by the best teams, but be fine against the rest

  • Chelsea – 4.0

Their record is skewed by the two sendings-off, and injuries cloud the picture right now. They should still be fine

  • Crystal Palace – 3.5

Let’s not overreact to their actual goals against. They’re overperforming their xGA by almost 5 goals, which is easily the most in the league. Some regression is likely 

  • Everton – 4.0

They had very bad underlying stats, early on, but have sorted themselves out, and are probably still the defence we expected them to be

  • Sunderland – 1.0

They’ve been better than expected so far… but they‘ve also had very good fixtures. Let’s wait and see

 

Final Thoughts

As noted, we don’t want to update these FDR fixture ticker ratings too often, and overreact to short-term trends. 

So, our next updates will likely come during the November 2025 international break. 

In the meantime, if you’ve got any feedback at all on these updates, we’d love to hear it. Just comment on this article, ping us an email, or message us on Reddit.

Thanks for reading, everybody, and may the FPL gods smile upon you.  

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