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Greetings all, and welcome to your Gameweek 30 fixtures preview, focusing on the best attacking and defensive fixture runs over the next five gameweeks.
Not only that, but we’ve got a special, bumper edition for you this week! We decided it was high time to update the team ratings for our beautiful fixture ticker, to better reflect which teams are much better now (e.g. Man U), and which teams are much, much worse (sorry Spurs fans).
Without further ado then, let’s get stuck straight in!
(And, if you just want the usual fixture runs, feel free to skip straight past the big old Fixture Ticker Changes section).
First things first, you can see our fixture ticker in all its Google Sheet glory right here:
This is our first season with the fixture ticker, and one of the main things we wanted to figure out was how frequently to update the actual team ratings; which, in turn, determine the fixture difficulty ratings.
We largely settled on every 10 gameweeks or so. That seems like enough time to gauge longer-term trends, without getting sucked into the ‘small sample size’ issues which would arise with more frequent changes.
So, with the clock having just hit 30 gameweeks, it was high time for some changes!
Below, you can see exactly what those changes are, and – indeed – why we made them.
(If you’re interested, you can also read about the algorithm we use in the ‘The Actual Methodology section right here).
Yes they score from set pieces, slow the game down, blah blah blah. In FPL terms, it doesn’t actually matter how the goals go in, or how boring the football is.
The fact is that they’re the joint-highest scoring team in the league (with the second-best xG). If you’ve got a defence going against them, then – by definition – this is the joint-worst matchup in the league currently.
Therefore – since we’re only comparing the 20 teams to each other, on our 1-5 scale – they have to get the best rating.
They’ve lost their best attacking player since our last update, and – unsurprisingly – their attack has dropped off.
15 goals in their last 10 games is fine, but also just better than average – hence, a ‘just better than average’ rating.
They’re actually the sixth-best attack in the league, for both goals and xG.
They’ve also got 16 goals in their last 10 games, which is basically the same as Bournemouth – so, they get the same ‘just better than average’ rating.
A completely middling attack.
They’ve only got 10 goals in their last 10 games. Across the season they’re 12th for goals overall, and 11th for xG.
They are the definition of bang average.
Remember when this attack was fun?
Well, now they’ve only hit 11 goals in their last 10 games, and they’re 15th for goals overall in the league.
They’re massively underperforming their xG, by a ridiculous 15.64 goals (!!!). Unfortunately we’re also ¾ of the way through the season, so that probably means they’re just not very good at finishing at this point.
Again, another bang average attack which deserves a bang average rating.
14 goals in their last 10 games is fine. They’re 9th overall in goals scored, but only 15th in xG.
They’re just completely and utterly ‘fine’.
Leeds also fall squarely into the middling tier. They’re 13th in goals scored overall, 10th in xG, and have scored 12 in their last 10 games.
Could it be a 3? Perhaps… but if you’ve watched them, you’ll know they’re not actually that good.
See: Arsenal.
They’re also not the free-scoring City team of old. They’re still the joint-highest scoring team in the league, therefore need to have the highest rating.
Easily the biggest improvers since our last update.
Their attack looks miles better under Carrick, and the stats bear it out. They’ve hit 18 goals in their last 10 games, and are now 4th-best overall for both goals scored and xG.
Since showing promising signs in our last update, they’ve fallen back down to earth massively, and are now 18th in both goals scored and xG.
Basically the opposite of Man U. They’ve changed their manager and it’s made no difference at all to their woeful attack.
They’ve got 12 goals in their last 10, which is middling, but are somehow 4th-worst in the league for xG.
Also, again, if you’ve seen them play, you’ll know how bad they are.
They’ve actually been noticeably better since our last update. Obviously they’re not a great attack… but that’s why they’ve still only got a 2.5.
They’ve scored 14 in their last 10 games, and are 14th in the league for both goals and xG. They bloody love the number 14, basically.
A slightly tricky one… and a potentially controversial downgrade, which is part-art and part-science.
Overall they are 4th-best for goals against, over the entire season. That’s the best you can say for them.
They’re only 9th for xGA though, having overperformed by almost 9 goals. And even in their recent easy-peasy run of fixtures, they conceded 13 goals in 10 games, which is a so-so 8th in the league.
Frankly, in addition to those stats, this is about the eye test too. They just haven’t looked good defensively… basically for most of the season, but also recently. Despite having a dream run of fixtures, they haven’t cleaned in the league since January 17th. Their last clean before that was December 13th.
So, between the stats and simply following them pretty closely, I think they’re a good team overall but with a pretty middling defence.
They lost their best defender, and are 7th in the league for GA, but only 10th for xGA. They’ve also conceded 14 in their last 10.
Overall, they feel like the very definition of a 3/5 defence.
They might always have been a bit better than the stats suggested, but the numbers have caught up with that now.
They’ve only conceded 11 in their last 10, and are actually third overall for xGA.
The most disappointing defence in the league this season? Maybe so, and they’ve gotten worse recently.
Overall they’re 14th for GA. In their last 10 games they’ve managed to ship 19 goals, which is the 3rd-worst record over that span.
For all the usual drama at the club overall, they’ve definitely been better recently. They’ve only conceded 10 in their last 10 games – 8th-best in the league. They’ve also cleaned three times in that span, and were 99.9% of the way to cleaning against Liverpool until Mac Allister’s last minute winner.
Again, apologies to any Spurs fans reading this… not that you’re probably under any illusions at this point.
They’ve managed to concede an impressive 23 goals their last 10 games. Which, unsurprisingly, is the worst record in the league.
They’re simply a great team to attack right now.
Obviously they’re still not a good team, but they’ve been significantly better recently, particularly in defence. They’ve only conceded 12 in their last 10 games – 7th-best in the league – and have cleaned four times since the new year.
Again, I’d refer you right here for the full explanation of the algorithm.
We have three levels of home modifier though – 0.5, 3.5, and 2.5. To cut a long story short, all the teams fall into one of those three tiers (higher is better), and those help to weight the FDRs.
At its simplest level, it reflects how good the team is overall.
The recent changes are:
A pretty disappointing season, considering we’d normally expect them to be knocking around the upper-mid table area.
But we’re 29 games in now, at the time of writing, and they’re 14th in the table. They’re just not that good.
Basically, the same as Brighton. Also a disappointing season, considering their expectations, and they’re 13th in the league with 3/4 of the games played.
Whether or not Man U’s banter era is over for good, they’ve been brilliant since Carrick took over. They’re the best team in the league over the last 10 games.
And, on the flip side of that particular coin, Spurs are the worst team in the league over the last 10 games.
3pts from those 10, no wins, seven losses, no clean sheets, the worst goal difference. Strip the name away, and they’re clearly one of the best (/the best) matchups in FPL right now.
Right! With all that cleared up, here are the very best attacking runs in FPL, starting in Gameweek 30.
Per, of course, our super up-to-date new ratings!
They’ve topped our attacking ticker for a while now, and the good times only continue.
Spurs at home is a dream matchup, Fulham and Palace at home are both good too, and even the away games are fine (with the usual ‘anything can happen in a derby’ caveat for Everton).
On paper… I guess Ekitike is the first name you’d look at? I’m delighted not to have actually owned him recently though, or I’d have gone mad.
He’s blanked against Burnley, Sunderland, Forest, and Wolves now. Obviously he still has that explosive upside, with 28pts in two games against Newcastle and West Ham thrown in.
Add together the underlying stats, the team he plays for, the upside, and the fixtures, and I’d still bring him in. Just… don’t be surprised if he does absolutely nothing.
After that, you’re crossing your fingers on the other options.
Wirtz did start in the Champions League, but is still coming back from injury, so who knows if he starts this weekend. Szoboslai is fine, but I’d rather just have a cheaper DefCons-based mid. Gakpo is endlessly frustrating, and hasn’t really done enough to gamble on him even with these easy fixtures.
Basically, it’s Ekitike or bust, for me.
Frankly, it’s the usual story for Man U.
Bruno is must-own, and I couldn’t care less about Mbeumo blanking a couple of times – I still think he’s a quality pick.
People are getting adventurous with Sesko, but I wouldn’t go there myself yet. I just don’t trust that he’s going to start every week.
I wouldn’t overreact to last week. Bournemouth away was always going to be the toughest fixture in Brentford’s nice little run, and now they have four fine matchups in a row.
Basically, hold any Brentford players you’ve already got, and I’m still completely fine bringing in Thiago and Dango. I don’t love Schade as much as James, but at only 1.8% ownership he’s definitely a big differential.
Hmm.
Everton away and City at home obviously aren’t dream matchups, though they’re not terrible either, and you’d comfortably back Chelsea to score in the other three games.
As for who you’d actually pick…
James is planning a special piece this week on Joao Pedro, so I’ll defer to him on that one. Check back on the main page if you’re reading this later in the week, and that article will probably be up.
Aside from him, even with decent fixtures, there’s nobody else I’d really back. Obviously Palmer is always a good option. I’d prioritise Bruno over him in midfield, and I’m holding Haaland for now, but if you can get him in too I think that’s fine.
An Enzo resurgence wouldn’t go amiss, since he’s still only 6.7 I’d want to see him back in attacking form first though, before going there.
The options here are scant, to say the least, regardless of the fixtures.
As with Enzo, it’d be great if Welbeck did become a viable option again, at a bargain basement price of 6.1. Unfortunately he just followed up his two good games by being benched, so we can’t trust him right now.
Overall I’d prefer to leave this situation for the next two games, then look again for the Burnley/Spurs fixtures.
It’s just hard to trust anyone at Bournemouth. They’ve had pretty good fixtures for a while now, and have hardly exploded in them – no goals against West Ham, one home to Sunderland, none home to Brentford.
Hold and start anyone you’ve got for the Burnley game, despite their poor recent attacking form. I definitely wouldn’t buy anyone right now, though.
At the risk of repeating myself from recent fixture previews – they’re a good team, but far from a top-tier one when it comes to their chances of actually keeping cleans.
And, with that in mind, most of their defenders are just too expensive.
I’m still fine bringing in VVD, since he has multiple routes to points, and these fixtures are very nice indeed – you’d hope to get at least a couple of cleans in the last few weeks.
Aside from that, I don’t think the other options justify their price. Frimpong is the most exciting option, and one to keep an eye on, but I wouldn’t go there until he actually strings a couple of starts together.
Nope.
Their defence is rubbish right now, and you’re not bringing them in away to Man U anyway.
They do have a lovely little run of fixtures after that, but let’s see if they can sort themselves out before we seriously consider them.
As noted in the ratings update section, Forest’s defence has actually been fine for a while now. I also like all five of these fixtures defensively.
Unfortunately their defenders are overpriced – a holdover from the start of the season, when we thought they’d repeat what they did last year. They’re also all very poor for DefCons, so you don’t even get that to fall back on.
All that said, I continue to love Elliot Anderson – he’s probably been my favourite player in FPL this season – and absolutely back bringing him in and starting him every week as your 5th (or even your 4th) midfielder with these fixtures.
They’ve been a bit up and down for a while now, but they’ve proven they can clean in east matchups, doing so against Leeds and Burnley fairly recently. And, Newcastle away (maybe), these are pretty easy matchups!
I wouldn’t spend much money on them, but I’d continue to rate Alderete as one of, if not the best budget defender right now, at only 4.1.
They haven’t conceded that many recently, but have only cleaned twice since the new year.
If you really want to go there then Van Hecke is fine, at only 4.4, but I’d rather just cheap out on Alderete.
They’re not exactly ‘dream’ defence fixtures, but (Chelsea away aside) any of these upcoming games could be cleans.
You haven’t exactly got a ton of options here, but Yoro is quite a tempting pick. He’s only 4.1, and has played 90mins in the last 3 league games. He offers next to no attacking threat though, and never hits DefCons, so it would purely be a clean sheets-based game.
Phew. Thus concludes your Gameweek 30 fixtures preview, and it really was a bumper edition!
To all of those who made it through to the end – my sincere thanks for staying with me. To all those who bailed early – you’re not reading this anyway, but I appreciate you giving it a go regardless.
As ever, your feedback – on our ratings updates, or absolutely anything else – is more than welcome over on Reddit.
Thanks for reading, everybody, and best of luck out there in Gameweek 30!
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