FPL Analysed – How Should We Approach Defenders?

FPL analysis - defenders

 

There are almost no reliable sources of clean sheets right now. 

Who would we call the ‘best’ defences? 

Newcastle? Gameweek 5 was their first clean of the season.

Man City? They’ve just conceded one goal each to Sheff Utd, Fulham, and West Ham.

Arsenal? They conceded home to Forest and Fulham, and their only clean – before the Godawful Everton attack – was a 10-man rearguard action against Palace.

Liverpool have one clean, and conceded against Wolves and Bournemouth.

Chelsea only have cleans against Luton and Bournemouth, and conceded home to Forest. 

We’re getting towards, sort-of, knowing who the good attacking teams are (and aren’t, in the case of Chelsea). But even these top sides – even when they win the games they’re supposed to – are routinely letting in one goal. 

 

General Thoughts on Defenders

Enough moaning. My proposal for what we should actually do with this trend? Start thinking about defenders differently. 

We absolutely cannot predict cleans. Except perhaps against a tiny handful of teams (Everton, Luton, Burnley). 

Our complete priority, therefore, should be targeting defenders with attacking potential.

If we get ‘defensive’ defenders, we’re almost certainly locking ourselves into 0-2pts per week. If we get ‘attacking’ defenders, even for supposedly-poorer defensive teams, we’re generally still getting the same rubbish defensive returns, but at least we always have that potential for 3pts for an assist. 

This likely means steering almost completely clear of so-called ‘safe’ centre-back picks. 

 

Are Centre-Backs a Hard Avoid?

ruben dias fpl

Who would have fallen into the category of a ‘safe’ centre-back pick, before the season? 

The teams we surely would’ve guessed would be at least solid at the back, are:

Here are their centre-backs you were probably most-likely to have picked (I’ve left out the likes of Mings and Gabriel, since we didn’t know they would be injured/rotated early):

 

What’s my takeaway from these safe centre-backs, for supposedly the best defensive teams in the league?

Many of their cleans come against teams that most teams could keep cleans against anyway – Burnley, Everton, Luton. 

So… why should we ever pay extra for someone like Dias, van Dijk, potentially even Saliba? 

We’re paying a premium for a big name from a big team, and not really getting a significantly better shot at clean sheets. 

In short, right now we shouldn’t pay more than 4.5 for a centre-back. It’s simply not worth it. 

Cleans are completely unreliable. They seem to be based more on matchup (against a rubbish attacking team) than the pedigree of the player’s team.

Why pay 5.5 or 6.0 for a Dias or van Dijk, when we seemingly have just as good a shot at clean against a crap team with a 4.5 like Konsa? 

 

Looking Back to Last Season

The first obvious rebuttal to everything I’m saying is ‘short sample size’. 

As the season progresses, we will – probably – start to see at least a couple of reliable defences emerge. Last year they were Arsenal and Newcastle. Between them, they had 6 of the 10 highest-scoring defenders in 22/23. 

Hopefully, this happens again, and we can all jump on those teams. Right now though, it’s still too early to work out who they actually are. 

Could it be Newcastle and Arsenal again? Absolutely, but there are no guarantees. Newcastle just got hammered for five goals in two games, for God’s sake, and Arsenal have looked sloppy at the back. 

Until we actually see it, I’m not confident enough to jump on either – or any – team, especially for a centre-back. 

Also, let’s take a quick look at those top 10 defenders from last year:

 

Notice anything else? Most of these guys were cheap!

Trippier and Trent are obviously premiums (though Tripper only started the season at 5.0), and Gabriel was priced at 5.0 because of his goals in 21/22.

White, Mee, Schar, Mings, Botman, Burn, and Estupinan? All 7 started the season priced at 4.5. 

The trendy, pricier pre-season picks – van Dijk, Shaw, Robertson, Zinchenko, Perisic – all finished either slightly or significantly lower. 

 

All Hail the Full-Back?

trippier fpl

It’s probably taken for granted that full-backs are better FPL assets than centre-backs. They still get the same clean sheet points, but also have the potential for assists, right? 

We can’t overlook the fact that they’re slightly less of a goal threat from set pieces. 

Centre-backs admittedly score very few goals anyway. 4 of them made it to a mighty three 3 last season: van Dijk, Mee, Gabriel, and Pinnock. 

Goals for defenders are worth double the points of assists, though – 6pts versus 3pts. So 18pts for 3 goals is the equivalent of 6 assists. 

5 defenders (all full-backs) got at least 6 assists last season. Not that far off from our 4 free-scoring centre-backs.

Crucially, full-backs do also still pop up with a handful of goals per season. 

All 12 of the top defensive assisters last season were full-backs. All but 1 of those (Robertson) scored at least 1 goal. 6 of the 12 got at least 2 goals. 

We can clearly see, therefore, that centre-backs’ goalscoring advantage over full-backs isn’t actually that big. Full-backs’ assisting advantage, however, is massive. 

Overall then… the short and simple answer is ‘yes’ – full-backs are better FPL assets.

 

How Much Should We Pay For Full-Backs?

Again, I’m not exactly breaking news that full-backs are better assets. I just wanted to highlight the statistical proof of it. 

It’s not news to FPL Towers, either. Of the 11 most expensive defenders, 8 are full-backs (including Ben White, who’s now reverted to RB). 

The first question that needs answering here is – are premium full-backs worth it?

 

This Year

At this early stage of the season, the answer has been a resounding no. 

Trent, Trippier, and Robertson are the three true premiums, at least in terms of price. Trent and Trippier currently rank outside the top 25 defenders for points scored. Robertson is technically up at 6th, after his goal against Wolves. Without that he’d be where Trent is (and Robbo scored 0 goals last season, on an xG of only 1.24). 

Estupinan and Chilwell were probably viewed as near-premiums, even if they’re not quite as expensive (I’m leaving Reece James out due to injury). Chilwell has even fewer points than Trent. Estupinan started off brilliantly, then blanked his following two games. 

With all that said, it really is too early to draw conclusions this season. Instead, let’s look back to last season.

 

Last Year

Trippier was the highest scoring defender last year, by a massive 42pt margin. Trent was second on 156pts (tied with Ben White – 4.5 to start the season). Robertson and Shaw – both fairly pricey – ranked in or around the top 10. Cancelo was 6th in points per game, before his transfer to Bayern Munich. 

In terms of points per start, the likes of Alex Moreno, Porro, Dalot, Estupinan, Emerson, Royal, Wan Bissaka, Malacia, and the aforementioned Ben White – all significantly cheaper – all ranked in or around (many of them tied for 4pts/game) the top 10. 

 

Takeaways

My main takeaway from this full-back research is this. 

Premium full-backs will very likely finish in the top 10 in total points scored. We pay the extra price, but we do get that security. 

In terms of points-per-game production, other – significantly cheaper – full-backs can match up with them. Alex Moreno, for example, got 4.7pts/start after arriving – better than Trent’s 4.5. Pedro Porro was only slightly lower than Trent, at 4.4.

 

How Should This Affect Our Decision-Making in FPL?

Before the season, and early on, it absolutely makes sense to focus on proven, premium full-backs. And, if we have the patience to stick with them, they will eventually deliver for us. 

They do not necessarily, however, represent good value. Comparatively better value can definitely be found during the season. 

Trippier is the perfect example. He got only 28pts in his first half-season with Newcastle. He was priced at 5.0 going into 22/23, but certainly wasn’t viewed as a Trent-level premium. When we saw how brilliant Newcastle’s defence was, we all jumped on him, and he ended up priced at 6.0 and easily being the best defender in the game. 

Getting on the likes of Moreno and Porro early would also have paid dividends, despite neither having played in the Premier League before. 

Trippier is an outlier, in his spectacular returns, but this is exactly the kind of player we should be targeting. That is:

On that crucial final point, note that we might not know it’ll be a good defence before the season. We need to try and identify this in-season, and jump on as early as we can. Again, nowadays there will only be a handful of teams who fit the bill. The quicker we can figure them out, the better. 

 

What Does It All Mean?

I’ve been trying to figure out defenders in FPL for at least a couple of years now. I’ve never particularly liked paying much at the position, usually preferring to have 4 cheap defenders, perhaps one premium, and invest the bulk of my money in midfield. 

This article, and the research I did, has therefore been useful in helping to get my own thoughts straight. Hopefully it’s done the same for you.

To summarise, here are my main takeaways:

I hope this piece wasn’t too rambling and incoherent. I don’t claim to have all the answers here, by any means – so please, if you have any thoughts or arguments with what I’ve said, don’t hesitate to let me know. 

 

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