FPL 24/25 Preview – Fixture Analysis, Captaincy Matrix, Fixture Swings and Early Wildcard and Chip Strategy

In this FPL 24/25 Preview we will be looking at fixtures and how that informs your moves, your captaincy and your chip strategy.

In case you missed it, we have already previewed Goalkeepers and Defenders and Midfielders and Forwards. 

Why are we spending so much time on fixtures? Because we firmly believe in fixtures over form. An easy run of fixtures almost always results in increased FPL returns for players. And, if we can identify when big fixture swings occur, we can plan our transfers and wildcard to take advantage of these swings.

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Quick Final Note: If you’d like to join the Full 90 FPL league for the 24/25 season, and demonstrate that you’re far better than us, the code is i2fdg3. Or, here’s the direct link).

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Why Aren’t We Talking About Defensive Fixture Runs

I am not going to look in any depth on defensive fixtures for two reasons. Firstly, defenders were bad assets last year and I expect them to be bad again this year because of the continuation of extended injury time. I don’t expect much to be gained from chopping and changing defenders (as was always true) so my advice to you is try to limit transfers there as much as possible.

Secondly, defensive fixture runs matter less. If you have a premium defensive asset, then you should play him every week. If you have a cheap guy, then you should be rotating him. You can basically get from gameweek 1 to 31 with an Everton defender and a Newcastle defender and never face a top 6 team for example. 

Rolling Five Transfers

In case you missed it, you now have the ability to save up to five free transfers. This may impact your strategy and you may decide to hold your transfers as long as possible so that you have five in your back pocket and can make big moves across the year. That’s another reason for us to look at fixture swings.

Fixture Analysis – First Five Gameweeks

For those of you who are familiar with us, we love to look five fixtures ahead in our preview pieces and Gameweek 1 is no exception:

Fulham have the best fixtures to start the season. That makes Muniz a tasty option at 6.0. There aren’t really any other reliable options at Fulham but I don’t hate Andreas if you have to go for a 5.5.

At Liverpool you can trust Salah to start. It is very hard to identify which of Diaz, Darwin, Jota and Gakpo will start the season in the two remaining attacking spots. And, I don’t think Szoboszlai is an option because I just don’t know if he will play 10.

The options at Newcastle and Palace should be fairly obvious. Gordon and Isak are super good. Eze and Mateta are also great (although Mateta is currently at the olympics so avoid him).

Finally, Everton are a team I will try and avoid in attack at the start of the season. I don’t mind DCL but he will inevitably get injured. After him, it’s probably McNeil who we have enough data on to know that he isn’t an excellent FPL asset. Wait and see and hope an asset emerges for their great run later in the season.

What about shorter-term?

If you look a little shorter-term, many of the same teams as above have great fixtures too. However, Notts Forest first three jump out as truly exceptional: Bournemouth (H), Southampton (A) and Wolves (H). It is risky to “book in” a transfer already but I currently have Gibbs-White in my team because of these fixtures and I plan to move off him when they play Liverpool in gameweek 4.

What about longer-term?

If you are thinking of avoiding using your wildcard for as long as possible, then Everton and Palace still have good runs up until gameweek 10. Everton avoid all of the traditional top six which is ridiculous. Forest, Villa and Man United fixtures are also good for the longer term ten weeks.

Captaincy Corner

Fixtures analysis is very useful for picking your captain in FPL. The typical way to do this is in a captaincy matrix like the one below. In this, I set out the three best options for the first twelve weeks based on what we know so far.

I am only picking between the options listed below because they are the best assets in the game. Even then, someone like Watkins or Fernandes doesn’t appear unless they have a really good fixture because they are less reliable than Salah or Haaland (that’s why you pay big money for them). Here is the list in reliability order:

• Haaland
• Salah
• Palmer
• Saka
• Son
• Isak
• Watkins
• Fernandes

Captaincy Matrix – Gameweeks 1 to 9

This captaincy matrix goes to gameweek nine just to demonstrate.

What does this tell us?

To start the season, owning two of Haaland, Salah and Isak seems like a no-brainer to me. Personally, I have all three in my current draft. But, if you made me pick only two, I would probably take Salah and Isak because I can captain them up to gameweek 6 with confidence. Saka is one that we don’t need at the start of the season but probably want to own for that run gameweek 6 to 8.

I think the key takeaway from this is that you don’t need Haaland. Plenty of us thought we needed him every game last year but we saw him disappoint against better opposition. Until I see something that proves the opposite, I am going to be of that view.

Fixture Swings 

This is my favourite bit of analysis from this piece, the fixture swings.

Top Teams, Top Assets

The following table shows you the relative strength of each of the top teams next five fixtures in each gameweek with 1 being the best/easiest set of fixtures and 20 being the worst/hardest.

And, when I put it in logarithmic scale like below, you can really see where the easier runs are.

What does this tell us?

Firstly, there are very few times when a top team has a truly great run of fixtures. Villa in gameweek 3, Man United in gameweek 9 and Man City in gameweeks 17-19 are the only times a top team has the best set of fixtures in the league. More often than not, they are just middle of the road fixture runs.

Secondly, we can see some easy switches. For example, in gameweek 3 Isak’s fixtures get worse and Watkins improve; or, in gameweek 5 we see Liverpool’s line cross Man City’s which suggests you could switch Mo for Erling.

What Does This Miss?

It misses a little in the shorter and longer term because it is focused on the next five fixtures. For example, there is no way in hell that I will not have at least two Arsenal assets in gameweek 6 as they play Leicester (H), Southampton (H) and Bournemouth (A) in gameweeks 6, 7 and 8.

The moment where the line starts to go up is also not necessarily the moment when you want to sell your asset. It is more an indication of needing to be prepared. For example, Man United have four great fixtures in gameweek 10 and then they play Arsenal in gameweek 14 which drags them down.

The Rest of the Teams

Again, the first shows you the relative strength of each of the top teams next five fixtures in each gameweek with 1 being the best/easiest set of fixtures and 20 being the worst/hardest. 

And the second is logarithmic.

What does this tell us?

West Ham have a good run from 4 and Brentford in 5. We know we will want Solanke in Gameweek 11 and a Wolves asset in gameweek 15. You may want to start the season with a Fulham asset, my current draft has Muniz, but its a very short run. Annoyingly, Everton have some of the best fixtures for a long time but they suck. Still, I like DCL so he might be worth a go.

When Should I Wildcard in FPL 24/25?

It is early to be thinking about this but I am currently favouring a wildcard in gameweek 6 for several reasons. 

Firstly, I want to wildcard early because the marginal amounts of information we are gaining after that is decreasing. And, I want to be aggressive this year because I think a good start will be key and allow me to hold transfers.

Why gameweek 6 in particular? Arsenal have three fantastic fixtures, Man City fixtures improve and Liverpool and Villa fixtures go the other way.  Gameweek 6 is also far enough into the season for us to have a decent understanding of who is good, who is not, and who were the surprises.

Alternatively, you could look around gameweek 8 when Man United’s fixtures turn really nicely. That’s not something I will do because I don’t trust 3 United players to join my team and I can probably straight swap to Bruno Fernandes anyway.

I think a better alternative would be to wait until gameweek 16 or 17 for Man City’s great run. Its a looong time to hold that wildcard and fixture pile up around christmas will make me nervous but City have incredible fixtures at that point. And, Spurs fixtures massively decline. So, if you were tripled up on Spurs you could swing the other way.

You don’t have to decide this now. But, it is worth considering. My current draft focuses on the first six gameweeks and attempts to maximise the amount of points I can get from that before settling on a more stable wildcard team.

Should I Bench Boost, Free Hit or Triple Captain in the First Half of the Season?

Traditionally, we hold these chips for the double and blank gameweeks at the end of the season. However, the FA cup schedule will be different this season so there should be fewer and smaller double and blank gameweeks. It will just be the league cup final and FA cup semis that will cause blanks and doubles. Probably that will result in some doubles in 33 and blanks in 34 according to James at PlanetFPL.

I would still prefer to hold Triple Captain for a double gameweek because I think the chip has the high upside and it is likely that someone like Salah or Haaland have a double gameweek. Otherwise I would consider Haaland in gameweek 9 home against Southampton which has hat-trick potential.

At best, you are expecting something like 20 extra points from a double gameweek bench boost. That is assuming all four players on your bench play twice and we doubt that will happen this year. If you can get 12 points from a first half of the season bench boost then I think you can be happy. If you use it early, you can also ignore it when wildcarding which I think is super helfpul.

Free hits are valuable in a blank gameweek but without a big blank gameweek, we probably don’t need it. Alon at FML FPL has a great idea – Free Hit in gameweek 2 to triple Man City and I love that. It means he can avoid them until their good run a few weeks later but still potentially get that explosive result in gameweek 2. It is something you could consider in gameweek 12 when Man United, Chelsea and Liverpool play Ipswich (A), Leicester (A) and Southampton (A), respectively. Or, gameweek 18 where Liverpool and Arsenal play Leicester (H) and Ipswich (H).

Ultimately, I will hold my chips which is boring but I usually end up in a playoffs or cup semis at the end of the season. And, chips are super valuable at that point to get a win. But, if you don’t have that issue then I think you can use one in the first half of the season and be happy.

That’s It.

I hope this focus on fixtures for FPL is useful for you all when planning out your moves.