What’s that, just over the horizon? Agh, it’s the start of the season! Hit the Auto-Pick button and run for your lives!
Ahem. Of course, we’re not doing that at Full 90 FPL. No panic here, absolutely none. We’re calmly taking this opportunity to have one last, big think about our teams.
‘Haven’t you thought enough?’ you might reasonably ask. ‘You’ve had bloody months.’
Apparently not!
But, after plenty of introspection, and… quite a while chatting on the phone, James and I (Joe, your Introducer for the day) are nearing our final, Gameweek 1 teams.
We’ll be back with those later in the week, just before the season starts. For now, we wanted to discuss our final watchlists.
The point of this is basically to show you our current thinking. Which players we’re confident in, which we’re still unsure about. Maybe it’ll help your own thought process. Maybe you’ll think we’re complete idiots, and want to do the exact opposite of both of us. Anything is possible.
We’ve got our Locks, our Probables, and our players still Under Consideration. We’ve also discussed the general strategy we’re each adopting – and our strategies are very different!
(Accordingly, you’ll see the formatting for our watchlists is quite different. Mine is a bit more about the individual players, while James’ is more about the longer-term/bigger picture. We’ve both explained those approaches in our introductions).
Without further ado, let’s crack on. These are our final watchlists, ahead of the 24/25 FPL Season. Exciting!
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Quick Final Note: If you’d like to join the Full 90 FPL league for the 24/25 season, and demonstrate that you’re far better than us, the code is i2fdg3. Or, here’s the direct link).
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Joe’s 24/25 FPL Watchlist
James has an actual, detailed strategy for the first chunk of the season (he even floated a 31-gameweek defensive rotation to me on a recent call, which was half-ridiculous, half-impressive).
I have not been so detailed. Unlike him, I don’t plan to wildcard early, although I do see the logic. Nor do I have that many transfers planned out, ahead of time – there’s one I need to decide whether or not to plan, with my defenders, but we’ll get to that shortly.
I’m trying not to overrate fixtures this early in the season.
As I said in my Goalkeepers and Defenders piece, we have no idea who will be any good defensively to start with.
We thought Everton would be really good at the back last season… they were in the end, but they were rubbish for ages when we all had Pickford to start the season. We all thought Liverpool would be good, helping Trent’s case… they weren’t, and neither was he.
Overall, I’m backing the players over who they’re playing.
Are Arsenal’s so-so fixtures going to scare me off Saka? Absolutely not. He’s one of the most consistent players in the game, and Arsenal might be the best team in the league (source: I’m an Arsenal fan). Likewise with Bowen and Watkins. Are their fixtures ideal? Not really. Do I care? Nope. They’re still two of the best players in the league, have proven themselves multiple seasons, and I trust them.
In general, I also try not to plan too far ahead.
I wrote in my Six Lessons Learned summary last season that planning beyond about 4 weeks in FPL, at most, is likely time wasted. Injuries, suspensions, team form, player form – they’ll get you.
I’m not ignoring fixtures completely – particularly Everton’s (and Newcastle’s, to a lesser extent) defensively. But the priority is to simply pick the best squad of players I can to start the season, even at the expense of great fixtures, and tweak it as and when required.
With all that blathering done, here’s my final watchlist.
Goalkeepers
Locks:
- Pickford – Easy choice for me. I get the logic of taking more of a gamble on a 4.5… but I’m happy to spend the extra 0.5 for the much better shot at cleans, especially with Everton’s early fixtures
Probables:
- Turner – I’ll be starting Pickford every week, so I’ll just have a 4.0 here. It’ll be Turner or Fabianski
Defenders
Locks:
- Mykolenko – Borderline must-own, at 4.5, and I’m perfectly fine with doubling up on Everton’s defence with Pickford
- Konsa – I’d generally back Villa’s defence to be better again this season, and Konsa is their most reliable 4.5
Probables:
- Burn – If I’m confident he’s starting, he’ll be in my team. Between the Guehi rumours though, and the other full-back options, I’m getting a bit nervous
Under Consideration:
- White – He was in my original team. I know Arsenal’s fixtures aren’t great, but they were so good defensively last year, I didn’t really care. I’d also back him to get similar returns to last season, even if he overperformed his underlying stats.
As time has passed, however, I’m getting more doubtful. I’m now considering leaving him out for the first five games, then getting him in when Arsenal’s fixtures turn in Gameweek 6
- Trippier – He’s the other reason I’m hesitant on White. Spurs aside, Newcastle’s fixtures in the first five games are nice. So, it just makes a lot of sense to start with him, then move him to White in GW 6.
Either way, it’ll be him or White as my one expensive defender
- Castagne – I don’t love any of the options for my fifth defender. Castagne’s fixtures line up fairly well in the defensive rotation I outlined here… so I see him as the best of a mediocre bunch.
If I do save 0.5 on Trips over White, I can upgrade this spot to a 5.0 like Munoz… which is also very tempting
- Munoz – Speaking of… I’m not as enamoured with him as others seem to be. But I can’t deny the upside. And, if he does pop, he’ll be very good value at 5.0
Midfielders
Locks:
- Salah – He’s definitely in, with those first few fixtures
- Gordon – His price, and Newcastle’s fixtures, make him basically must-own
- Eze – I just can’t resist him at this price. He’s great, and his returns last year, based on his minutes, were fantastic
Probables:
- Bowen – He got put in a tough spot for long periods of last year, out of position up top, and still got 22 returns. With Fullkrug to play off, I love him as a pick. Only the fixtures, and the uncertainty around the new manager, stop him from being a 100% lock
- Saka – He’s currently in the team. I know the fixtures aren’t amazing… but I don’t particularly care. He returns against good teams, bad teams, home, away… he’s just super-consistent. You can stick him in your team across the season, and be confident in 25-30 returns one way or another
Under Consideration:
- Palmer – He’s the only one giving me doubt over my Saka pick.
I wouldn’t be 100% confident. He did massively outperform his xGI last season, by around 10, and his reliance on pens for fantasy points is a slight concern.
That said, he’s obviously a quality player, and is nailed. City in the first game is a terrible start, but after that he’s fine up to Gameweek 8.
He’s 0.5 more than Saka though, so I’d need to go White to Trips, and spend the 0.5 on him, rather than Munoz. Overall I probably prefer Saka + Trips + Munoz to Palmer + Trips + Castagne, but I’m still deciding…
- Morgan Rogers – Apart from Haaland, he’s probably making me more nervous than any other player.
If he does end up starting for a very good Villa team, and continues his form from preseason (and late season last year), he’s ridiculous value at 5.0.
Right now, I’m going no-Haaland for a quality five-man midfield. But if Rogers pops, I can’t deny that having him as the fifth mid, plus Haaland up top, is an excellent strategy
Forwards
Locks:
- Isak – I’m only playing 2 up top, without Haaland, so Isak is the most obvious pick in the world. Between his quality, stats, and early fixtures, you probably want him at 8.5 whatever your plan is.
- Watkins – Another easy pick, if I’m not having Haaland. I’m not expecting 18 assists again. But the goalscoring is obviously legit, and I like basically all of his first 10 fixtures (yes, even Arsenal – as an Arsenal fan, Emery absolutely has our number…)
Probables:
- Fraser – I’m going 3-5-2. So, I just need a 4.5 forward, who will never play.
Under Consideration:
- Haaland – Obviously. As noted, I currently prefer ploughing the money into an excellent five-man midfield… but I can’t deny no-Haaland is terrifying, especially for that dream Gameweek 2 fixture home to Ipswich.
I’m just hoping to make up the difference with my midfield, all five of whom are major goal threats in their own right
Current Draft
After all that, here’s my current team.
I’m pretty set on the midfield and forwards, despite the terrifying, looming threat of Haaland.
The defence is the big question mark.
Right now, I am leaning towards moving White to Trippier. I then need to decide whether to save that 0.5 for a future move to White, use it on Saka to Palmer, or use it on Castagne to Munoz.
If Burn does drop out, that makes my decision easier. Munoz probably comes in then, since I don’t really like any other 4.5s.
James’ 24/25 FPL Watchlist
I think I am settled on this plan, but don’t hold me to it…
My current plan is to come into this season very aggressive. That means heavily targeting captaincy, using transfers up top, and really targeting the teams with good fixtures.
As I said in our fixtures piece, I think gameweek 6 wildcard is on. So, this team only needs to last five games before I pull the trigger.
Below, the Locks and Probables are what my current draft looks like. The Under Consideration is players that might replace the probables.
Goalkeepers
Locks:
- Fabianski – West Ham – 4.0
Probables:
- Henderson – Crystal Palace – 4.5
Under Consideration:
- Pickford – Everton – 5.0
There is only one goalkeeper who costs 4.5 and has a good first five fixtures. So, Henderson is likely going to be my keeper.
I think I won’t go for Pickford, because I can have Mykolenko for 4.5, but it’s one I haven’t 100% decided.
Defenders
Locks:
- Barco – Brighton – 4.0
Probables:
- Robertson – Liverpool – 6.0
- Pedro Porro – Spurs – 5.5
- Mykolenko – Everton – 4.5
- Robinson/Castagne – Fulham – 4.5
Under Consideration:
- Saliba – Arsenal – 6.0
- Trippier – Newcastle – 6.0
- Munoz – Crystal Palace – 5.0
- Maatsen – Aston Villa – 5.0
- Livramento – Newcastle – 4.5
- Konsa/Pau – Aston Villa – 4.5
- Andersen – Crystal Palace – 4.5
- Aina – Notts Forest – 4.5
- Henry – Brentford – 4.5
In defence, my focus is on having a flexible pricing structure where I can move to many other options if needed. Essentially, my plan is to have a 6.0 defender, a 5.5/5.0 defender and rotate two 4.5s plus Barco.
At 6.0, I like Roberston for the fixtures and his small attacking threat. Trippier would be in there if he stopped posting cryptic social media posts which imply he is leaving. On paper, Saliba is the worst option but I just can’t not consider an excellent Arsenal defence.
At 5.5/5.0, I looked at Munoz at the end of last year and said I wanted him. He is so attacking (even though his underlying numbers aren’t incredible). However, I recently freed up 0.5 and the algorithms are all obsessed with Porro. I have been playing with Munoz in this slot but I just don’t love the idea of being tripled up on Palace. Maatsen is the last (and least likely to start for me). I think he is a great pick, but I am not sure he starts the season.
At 4.5m, the good rotations could be Everton/Fulham, Everton/Crystal Palace, Villa/Forest, Villa/Newcastle, or Brentford/Fulham.
At 4.0, Barco is a lock in my team. He looks likely to start with Estupinian injured, and I really don’t care if he doesn’t start after that because he isn’t needed. He also looks very attacking and is on a bunch of corners which I like (since the new Brighton manager loves set piece goals).
Midfielders
Locks:
- Salah – Liverpool – 12.5
- Eze – Crystal Palace – 7.0
Probables:
- Gordon – Newcastle – 7.5
- Andreas – Fulham – 5.5
- Rogers – Aston Villa – 5.0
Under Consideration:
- Saka – Arsenal – 10.0
- Son – Spurs – 10.0
- B. Fernandes – Man Utd – 8.5
- Jota – Liverpool – 7.5
- Gibbs-White – Notts Forest – 6.5
- Nkunku – Chelsea – 6.5
- Bailey – Aston Villa – 6.5
- Smith-Rowe – Fulham 5.5
- Winks – Leicester – 4.5
Forwards
Locks:
- Isak – Newcastle – 8.5
Probables:
- Haaland – Man City – 15.0
- Muniz – Fulham – 6.0
Under Consideration:
- Ollie Watkins – Aston Villa – 9.0
- Joao Pedro – Brighton – 5.5
I’m going to speak about midfielders and forwards together because of the way they affect each other in my draft.
Let’s start with the locks.
Salah has the better fixtures of all the premiums, so he is in. He will be one of the players that I look to captain most often. Isak is absolutely incredible and has ludicrously good underlying numbers, so he is a lock. Eze is talismanic at Palace, and they start the season with relatively good fixtures.
In the probables (and my current draft) we have Haaland, Gordon, Muniz, Andreas and Rogers.
Haaland is basically just there so I can captain him in gameweek 2. Like I said at the top, I want to be super aggressive and chase spikes in points, and this is an example of that.
I think Haaland has the potential for a hat-trick in this home game against Ipswich, and so I think he is worth having. After that, I sell him for Watkins (who has three great games) and I switch a midfielder for Palmer (who also has three great games).
Gordon starts off with a tasty home fixture to Southampton, and he loves to return at home.
Muniz and Andreas both have excellent fixtures (naturally, given they play for the same team). Rogers could rotate well with Andreas if he starts for Villa, so I am hoping for that to work out well.
Here’s my thinking, regarding these picks…
If you remember my midfielders and forwards piece, you will remember me lamenting the lack of midfield options at 6.0.
Because of my double premium set-up, I need to save some money somewhere, and this is one of those areas.
I am reasonably happy to take the risk with Rogers. If he starts gameweek 1, he will price rise immediately.
However, if I downgrade Rogers to Winks and Porro to Munoz, then I can upgrade Andreas to a 6.5 midfielder. I haven’t yet worked out whether that is preferable.
Another alternative is to downgrade Porro to Munoz, switch Munoz to Joao Pedro, and then get a 6.5 midfielder for Andreas. I don’t think that is very likely because Joao Pedro is not nailed, and I don’t want that risk going into the season.
You also see a lot of “under considerations” here, because if I decide that I can’t afford Haaland, then I will switch him to Watkins and probably go for the safer picks like Saka, Son and Bruno.
I just really don’t want to play that way to start the season. Did I mention I’m being aggressive?
Current Draft
There it is in all its glory.
I’m pretty confident I will go into the season like this (or at least in this double premium structure). I’ve not seen many others with my same type of team, but LateRiser (of the FPL Wire) was on FML FPL recently and he had a similar team.
Two things have me a bit nervous.
Firstly, the statistical models. They favour boring picks that average out returns each week pretty well. My strategy for these first five weeks is pretty much the complete opposite of that. It could really pay off or really backfire.
Secondly, is an alternative strategy. One that is more flexible and tries to go long into the first half of the season without using the wildcard. This appeals to my risk-averse way to play the game, but I know it has cost me in the last few years. So, I really want to use my wildcard relatively early, after we have a good amount of information (which I take to mean 4-8 weeks).
But… am I picking an intentionally worse team, to make sure I have to wildcard? I don’t know guys, this is the kind of thing that FPL makes us wonder…
I went into last year with Haaland and without Salah with a way more flexible team and it was a disaster – yes I hate you, Trent (but I also love you). So, I am hoping that is a lesson that I should learn.
Final Thoughts
Well, there you have it. Two beautiful preseason watchlists.
We’re both pretty set in our teams… for the most part. But then, some of the picks we’re decided on – Myko, Isak, Eze – are completely template. As always in FPL, the interesting decisions are the ones you make outside of the obvious players.
And – as we’ve both made clear – there’s definitely still time for us to shuffle some of those players around.
Hopefully this was useful to read. If not… we’ll do better in the future, so follow us on Reddit for the latest updates anyway!
We’ll be back with our final FPL 24/25 teams later in the week. Until then, happy tinkering, everybody!