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Greetings all, and welcome to our first team ratings update of the 26/27 FPL season.
For reference, the point of these is that they feed directly into our fixture ticker. The attacking and defensive ratings for each team (along with a couple of other factors, explained on the fixture ticker page) combine to generate the fixture difficult rating for each game.
So, they’re pretty important!
We try to find a balance with these changes between staying relevant (i.e. updating regularly), and not overreacting to small sample sizes (i.e. not updating too regularly). Roughly once a month provides a nice happy medium.
Since we very much don’t want to overreact to small sample sizes, the changes tend to be fairly conservative too – usually 0.5 in either direction, on our 1-5 scale.
It doesn’t sound like much, but I do think it’s the right approach, and still makes a difference to the fixture difficulty ratings that get produced.
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Fair warning that in this first update, a lot of our ratings will also be staying the same. They were based on plenty of research pre-season, so unless there’s a good reason to actually change them this early in the season, we aren’t!
Regardless of whether they change or stay the same, I (Joe) have gone through our reasoning for the attacking and defensive ratings for every single team in the league below, based on what we’ve seen in the first five gameweeks.
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Final point – I’m well aware a lot of teams are clustered somewhere in the 3-3.5 range. It’s not the most exciting, but I just think that’s the way the league is right now.
I can’t remember having this much parity, where there are very few actually bad teams, and so many pretty good but not great sides. West Ham got relegated on 39pts last season, for God’s sake!
(James also looked at this from a statistical perspective in his 25/26 season round-up, which is still worth reading.)
Overall, fixtures might just matter less than they used to.
You’ve probably got a couple of elite teams (Arsenal and City), and one or two rubbish teams (Coventry)… and the rest of the sides in the league are all at least competent (Leeds, Newcastle, Everton, etc.), if not pretty/really good (Brighton, Brentford et al, along with the usual suspects like Liverpool).
We should probably lean more towards sheer player talent, therefore, and away from fixture difficulty, than we used to.
Anyway, enough faffing around, let’s get on with it.
Enjoy!
For reference, here’s a quick summary table of all our ratings. Again, all the actual reasoning is explained below.
| Attack | Defence |
5.0 | Man City | Arsenal |
4.5 | Arsenal Chelsea | Man City |
4.0 | Bournemouth Liverpool Man Utd | Liverpool Brighton |
3.5 | Brentford Brighton | Aston Villa Brentford Man Utd |
3.0 | Aston Villa Leeds Newcastle | Bournemouth Crystal Palace Everton Fulham Leeds Newcastle Forest Sunderland Spurs |
2.5 | Crystal Palace Everton Fulham Forest Sunderland Spurs | Chelsea |
2.0 |
| Hull |
1.5 | Hull Ipswich |
|
1.0 | Coventry | Coventry Ipswich |
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It’s slightly tempting to knock this down a little, but that would seem premature. They did score the 2nd-most goals last season, and their attack has actually looked better from open play this season.
The main concern right now is set pieces. Obviously they were a big part of the goalscoring last season, but have dried up completely so far this year.
Finishing is another concern. They’ve only actually scored 8 goals in 5 games so far, and in the Napoli game – in which they amassed over 4xG, and only actually scored 1 goal – they were woeful in front of goal.
Still, they’re largely fit and healthy, and do look more creative in possession, so I’m fine leaving them on 4.5.
Obviously this doesn’t feel great after they just had their worst defeat in over 3 years (also against Brighton).
I wouldn’t exactly panic yet though. They’d conceded 1 goal in their previous 5 domestic games before that, plus the clean against Napoli. They were outplayed by Brighton, but the goals themselves were also two excellent strikes from outside the box, plus a late set piece, and the xGA was fine.
They’re still the best defence in the league until further notice.
It’s very tempting to knock this one down, but I’m resisting for now.
The stats are awful. They’ve technically now got 4 goals in 5 games, but 3 of those were against Spurs, so do they really count? Before that it was just 1 in 4.
You can’t say they’ve gotten unlucky either. Their xG is only 5, which is second-worst in the whole league.
That said, there was obviously a massive upheaval to their attack, losing Watkins, Rogers, and even Tielemans in behind them. Manzambi immediately got a goal and an assist in his first start, and Jackson looked better too.
They’re still not going to be the most explosive attack in the league, but I think they’ll be fine pretty quickly when Unai gets all the new lads bedded in.
They were fine last season, and they’ll almost certainly be fine again this season. Suzuki looks like a good replacement for Emi in goal, and Unai always keeps things respectable back there (without actually getting many cleans).
The goals against (9 in 5 games) looks worse than it is. Brighton caught them out in the first game for 4 goals, amongst all the transfer upheaval, and Spurs got 2 late when the game was essentially gone.
I was interested to see how they’d look this season, with Iraola leaving, and the answer so far is exactly the same.
The Liverpool game was bad, but they had just had a big European game on Thursday (and Liverpool did defend well). They looked just as direct and quick as ever against Brentford, and I think that’s more of the ‘real’ Bournemouth.
Only 6 goals in 5 games isn’t great, but they haven’t exactly had easy fixtures – City, Everton, Newcastle, Brentford, and Liverpool.
I still think they’ll be one of the better attacks in the league this season.
This was probably a bit harsh going into the season, and I’m happy to bump it up a little.
No cleans yet in the league, but I do think they’re coming. Famously they keep going ahead and looking fine, only to ship goals late on (perhaps through fatigue). In terms of the eye test, I think they’ve looked just fine, and they’ve actually got the 5th-best xGA so far this season.
Tempting to give this a little bump, after 10 goals in 5 games, but it feels a bit soon yet.
Sticking 3 past Spurs and Chelsea is certainly funny, but they’re not exactly elite defences. Against Leeds and Sunderland – who are somehow better than Spurs and Chelsea, what a world we live in – they only got 1 goal each time, and they were outplayed by Bournemouth despite grabbing 2.
If and when Thiago gets fully up and running again, and if they do sustain this goalscoring, I’ll happily move them to a 4 next time.
I’m happy to bump this up.
Cleaning against Chelsea is no joke, and it wasn’t a fluke either – they looked excellent, particularly the new centre-back Schuster.
They’re just a tough, well-organised team. 2 cleans already, 1 goal conceded in 2 other games, and while they shipped 2 and were outplayed by Bournemouth, I again think that’s one of the better attacks in the league, so that’s fine by me.
Clearly there’s an argument to move this higher, but I don’t want to overreact, and generally want to keep all changes limited to 0.5 this early in the season.
They’ve certainly got a strong case though. Top scorers in the league, top for xG by miles, they just stuck 3 past the best defence, and they also put 3 past Man U in the League Cup for good measure.
If this is sustained, they’ll obviously be a 4 in the next update, but I want to see it for a few more weeks first. Particularly since they’re currently the 2nd-biggest xG overperformers in the league, and long-range worldies don’t tend to be a sustainable long-term attacking strategy.
They were one of the best defences in the league last season, and I was interested to see whether they’d sustain that or not. Well, so far so good!
5 goals conceded in 5 games, despite losing Van de Ven. They are overperforming their xGA considerably, which is around 8.6 right now, so we’ll see if it actually lasts at this rate.
Right now though, they remain one of the top defences around.
At the very start of the season they seemed nailed-on to be the best attack in the league, with 7 goals in their first 2 games.
They were shut down in the Arsenal game, being held to only around 0.3xG, but that was away to the best defence in the league. Since then though, they’ve also been out-xG’d by Hull, then shut out by Brentford. I know JP was out for the latter game, but come on – Welbeck was good last year, and you’ve still got Palmer, Rogers, Neto et al behind him.
Based on the talent and the early potential, I’m sure they’ll still be one of the better attacks around, but I can’t move them up to a 5 yet based on the more recent performances showing they can be somewhat controlled after all.
Absolutely shocking. If I’d started them any higher than a 3, I would’ve certainly broken my ‘no more than a 0.5 change’ rule and taken them right down to 2.5.
They were all over the place in the first 4 weeks. In the first half against Brentford they actually looked pretty good… then they promptly fell apart and shipped three goals in the second half.
Worst defence in the league for goals conceded. 4th-worst for xGA. They were bad last season, and they’re even worse this year so far.
It feels crazy to say this about Chelsea… but they are definitely one of the better matchups to attack in the league right now.
1 goal in 5 matches (worst in the league), and the worst xG in the league too.
They had horrible fixtures to start – Arsenal, Hull (who are apparently decent), Man City, and Brighton – before finally nabbing their first goal away to Forest.
Maybe they’ll do better now that their fixtures ease off a bit – they certainly spent enough money on the team. For now though, they are officially the worst attack in town.
Again, tough fixtures, including against 3 of the best attacks in the league in Arsenal, Brighton, and City.
Their xGA is actually fine – around 8.6, against 10 actual goals conceded, which is solidly mid-table.
So, as with the attack, we’ll see what happens with easier fixtures, but for now they’re obviously a team to target.
Only 6 goals in 5 games, and a lower-mid table xG of around 7.6. Their fixtures haven’t really been that bad either, apart from City (although the early red against Ipswich may have skewed things).
I do fear for this attack, and could see them sliding further. There’s just not a huge amount of talent there. Munoz might not be as big of a loss as it seemed, since Khalaily has looked dangerous down the right, but Strand Larsen, Pino, Kamada as your front three… meh.
Going all the way down to a 2.5 is a big swing, but between the eye test and the talent, I just think they’re – if not ‘the worst’ attack in the league right now – definitely one of the least threatening.
The stats look rubbish right now, with 11 goals conceded in 5 games (joint 2nd worst) and the 5th-worst xGA.
This has been pretty circumstantial though. They got battered 4-1 by City, but you can’t read anything into that, and 2 of Ipswich’s 3 goals came after the 34th minute red card.
Is also conceding 2 each to Everton and Fulham impressive? No it is not! But we haven’t seen enough to say they’re actually rubbish defensively yet.
Meh. They’re still exactly the same mediocre attack we expected – 6 goals in 5 games, and with a very middling xG of around 8.4.
They remain one of the least inspiring attacks around, and probably will continue to be so!
They’ve conceded the joint-fewest goals in the league, with 3, but are significantly overperforming their xGA of 7.2.
They’ve also had a ridiculously easy schedule. Holding Bournemouth to 1 goal is good, and shipping 2 to Man U is fine. Apart from that they’ve played Spurs, Palace, and Ipswich – i.e. 3 of the worst attacks in the league.
They’ll continue to be solid, but there’s no way they continue this defensive pace.
5th-worst for goals scored, with 5 in 5, and lower-mid table for xG. Similarly to Palace, I just also don’t think there’s much talent going forward for them.
They’re right on the cusp of getting knocked down to a 2. And with Ipswich, Hull, and Coventry coming up in a row, we’re about to find out whether they actually can put anything together or not.
This feels about right. You’re definitely not scared of going against them, but they’re not necessarily pushovers either.
Conceding 3 to Palace at home is rubbish, but shipping 3 to Chelsea is fine, and apart from that they’ve only conceded 1 away to Sunderland, 1 against Man U, and cleaned away to Liverpool – not bad.
We started all promoted teams on 1’s for both attack and defence, for the record. Hull have been better than 1.5 so far, we also very, very much need to see whether it’s actually sustainable or not, and they haven’t done enough to warrant more than a 0.5 boost here.
They’ve been fine overall, but they’ve still only scored 6 in 5 games. Even that’s slightly outperforming an xG of around 5.75, which is 4th-worst in the league.
I’m not exactly terrified of the Tigers yet, put it that way.
In this case I’m happy to make a rare exception to my early-season ‘0.5’s-only’ rule.
4 goals conceded in 5 games is incredibly impressive for a promoted side.
They’ve had a couple of kind fixtures, in Coventry and Villa. They’ve also cleaned against Man U, held Chelsea’s attack to 2 (which is fine), and conceding 2 away to Newcastle isn’t exactly terrible either.
I will point out that they’re certainly outperforming their xGA, which is lower-mid table. Still, a 2/5 is indeed a lower-middle table rating!
With Everton, Fulham, Palace, and Ipswich coming up soon too, they’ve got a great chance to prove they’re actually a solid defensive team.
They’re not getting a Hull defence-esque full 1-point bump, but they’ve done enough to show they’re not the worst attack in the league (which is Coventry thus far).
7 goals in 5 games is fine, and in line with their xG of 7.1. The latter is 6th-worst in the league, but hey, that’s why they’re still only a 1.5!
Nope, this is definitely staying as a 1 for now.
They’ve conceded the second-most goals in the league (only behind Chelsea… which again, feels ridiculous to write), and have the 3rd-worst xGA.
Easily one of the best matchups around.
As predicted in our original rating, they’re just a solid middle-of-the-road attack.
7 goals in 5 games puts them slap-bang in the middle of the pack. Their xG is lower-mid table, but not drastically behind the full-on mid table.
They’re nothing special, but completely and utterly fine!
You can’t argue with the stats. They’ve got the joint-best defensive record right now, with 3 goals conceded in 5 games, and are 3rd-best for xGA.
… except I will argue with the stats a little bit, and point out they’ve had a pretty favourable schedule. Holding Brighton and Brentford to 1 goal each is impressive, and holding Newcastle to 1 is fine too. Cleaning against Forest and Palace is… obviously still good, but less impressive.
I’m fine moving them up to a 3 for now, but strongly doubt they’ll end up as one of the better defences in the league.
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Ugh. I guess they have to stay as a 4 through the talent, if nothing else… but they’ve hardly been inspiring so far.
7 goals in 5 games – meh. 8.24 xG, squarely in mid-table – meh. Getting shut out by Fulham at home – bleurgh.
In terms of both the eye test and the results they look like a bang average, completely unexceptional attack right now. We have to give them (and Iraola) a little longer, however, before we actually move them down.
They were pretty poor last season, hence the starting 3.5, but they’ve looked solid so far. Jacquet has been impressive, and Iraola seems to have swiftly binned Frimpong at RB, which is obviously a good thing defensively too.
I will say they have also cleaned against Ipswich and Fulham, who aren’t exactly powerhouses. The clean away to Bournemouth was impressive though, and between that and the defensive upgrades across the back line I’m fine rating them as one of the better defences around right now.
Pretty straightforward. We already thought they’d be one of, if not the best attack in the league, and so it’s proven.
Talent everywhere, 2nd-most goals scored (despite the early red card against Man U), 2nd-best for xG too, and clearly deserving of a top rating.
Hmm. As with Arsenal, I’m going to try not to overreact to a bad last game before the international break, and leave them where they were.
I just don’t think we’ve seen enough yet to move them one way or the other. They conceded a ridiculous amount of chances and xG against Sunderland – not great – but also held Bournemouth to 1, obviously defended well against Man U in exceptional circumstances, and their other two games were against Palace and Coventry whose attacks are both rubbish.
I assumed they’d probably be the second-best defence coming into the season, and can’t say I’m dissuaded quite yet.
Oops. We’d at least assumed Man U’s attack would start off being really good, as it was at the end of last season, before tailing off when the European games started. Turns out they didn’t wait around!
The 5-2 against Ipswich – one of the worst defences in the league – completely skew the stats here. In the other games they’ve gotten shut out by Hull, overperformed their xG against Everton, were rubbish against 10-man City, and only got one against Fulham. Eye test-wise, they look poor too.
This was not a hard run of opening fixtures (hence why we piled on in FPL), but they’ve made a bit of a mess of them anyway.
We simply have to knock this down too.
Again, we all looked at the fixtures and thought ‘Great, clean sheets ahoy!’ They then proceeded to concede 2 each to Hull, Ipswich, and Everton (the latter being a very late and good second goal, admittedly). They couldn’t clean against 10-man City, actually looking worse defensively after the red, nor could they clean against mediocre Fulham.
Not great!
This was a ‘who the hell knows?’ team for the preseason rankings… and I can’t say I’ve got any further idea 5 weeks in.
Sure, they’re 5th in the goalscoring charts, with 9 in 5. They’re also easily the biggest overperformers in the league, with a 3rd-worst xG of only 5.5.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. They’ve got good players, but not elite ones (injuries to Osula and more recently Elanga haven’t helped), and 3 feels a safe middle ground for now.
9 goals conceded in 5 games put them within 2 of basically half the teams in the league. Their xGA is also upper-middle of the pack. Getting battered by Leeds will have skewed those stats somewhat… but also if you’re capable of shipping 4 goals against Leeds, maybe that says something about your defence.
Again, I think they’re just completely middle of the road here too.
On the surface this doesn’t look great – 4 goals in 5 games, which is joint third-worst in the league. They’re also the biggest underperformers in the whole league though, against their respectable 8.5 xG.
Obviously I’m not going to move them up, after this start! But between the underperformance, them having the excellent MGW, Glasner being a good manager, and Delap now looking good again, I’m happy not to move them down either.
On the one hand, the Forest defence has statistically performed brilliantly so far. They’ve only conceded 5 goals in 5 games, and have the best xGA in the league (which is almost bang on 5 too).
On the other, they’ve had an amazing schedule. They conceded 2 goals to the one decent attack they played – Liverpool. Aside from that they’ve had Leeds at home, Spurs at home, Villa, and Coventry at home… which they somehow lost 1-0.
I’m fine moving them up to a 3 anyway, since they clearly aren’t terrible at the back. Man U or Chelsea would still have found ways to concede more goals to that lot.
But there’s almost no chance this continues when their schedule gets harder.
On the one hand, in terms of the eye test, they’ve looked fine, particularly against Man City obviously. On the other, before that City matchup they only had 3 goals in their first 4 games, and that ridiculous game also gave their xG a massive boost.
I’m still fine giving them a little boost, since they have looked okay, but they remain one of the worse attacks in the league for now.
The crazy City game also skews these stats in the opposite direction, since coming into it they’d only conceded 5 in 4 games. In their other tough test, against Arsenal, they were outstanding defensively, and it took a Bruno worldie to break the deadlock.
They famously massively outperformed their xGA last season to end up with a good defensive record, so like many I thought they’d regress this year, but they look solid at the back so far.
And last but not least… oh, wait, they are least. They’re literally bottom of the table.
Coming into the season I gave Spurs’ attack the benefit of the doubt, for their injuries last season and their many new signings. Turns out I was wrong!
In five games thus far, they have managed all of 2 goals. Yes, this is significant underperformance of their 5.8 xG… but also they’re just awful at finishing, so you can’t exactly say they’ve been ‘unlucky’ in that respect.
It will, surely, get better at some point. Right now though they are easily one of the worst attacks in the entire league.
After the opening weekend, when they got demolished by Brentford, it seemed I might have been overly generous with this rating too.
Thereafter they did stabilise somewhat – reducing that to a 0-2 loss to Newcastle, then back to back cleans – before somehow conceding 3 goals, at home, to one of the worst attacks in the league in Villa.
Okay, so they haven’t exactly been great defensively either… but I’d at least be slightly more confident in them at this end of the pitch!
Right, that’ll do it for our first fixture difficulty ratings update of the season. Phew, that was a big one – good job we had literally no football I actually care about for two weeks.
The next update will come along in a few weeks’ time. Until then, enjoy the fixture ticker, and check out our other international break content right here!
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