A lot of us are using the free hit chip in FPL this gameweek. If you need a reminder about how the free hit works, then check out our full guide here.
Personally, I am really excited for this gameweek in fantasy football. It’s a chance to have some fun and pick some players we wouldn’t normally consider. And, it’s a chance for some rank rises and to get one over on your mini league rivals.
In this piece, we will take a quick look at strategy and tactics before assessing the best fixtures, and then the best players in those fixtures. We will chuck in a few more players for consideration in your FPL team before looking at a few draft teams, and finishing with preferred captains for this FPL gameweek.
Free Hit Strategy and Tactics
If you are struggling to make the expensive players fit, consider picking a non-playing goalkeeper and/or a non-playing outfield player. You have to be confident in your first eleven to start to do this, but having two playing outfield players on your bench should be sufficient.
In terms of formation, the most sensible thing to do at the moment seems to be backing attackers over defenders.
The defenders are generally not scoring very well, and clean sheets are not reliable returns this year (nor are attacking returns from defenders). So, I think 3 at the back is the way to go. It is personal preference/budget restraints that make 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 up to each individual manager.
If you are definitely free hitting then feel free to pull the trigger now and grab the players that are price rising, just to make sure you don’t get priced out. Check out: http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/IndexAndroid2 to see who is close to a rise, and who is close to a fall.
Best Defensive Fixtures
The best defensive fixtures this week in order are:
- Liverpool at home to Forest
- Crystal Palace at home to Everton
- Arsenal at home to Southampton
- Bournemouth at home to West Ham
- Leicester at home to Wolves
It makes sense to focus your picks on these games, but there is a problem…
Best Attacking Fixtures
The best attacking fixtures this week in order are:
- Liverpool at home to Forest
- Arsenal at home to Southampton
- Leeds away to Fulham
- Crystal Palace at home to Everton
- Brentford at home to Aston Villa
Aaaand now you see the problem. Liverpool, Arsenal and Palace all feature in both lists.
Best Goalkeepers and Defenders
In general this year, expensive defenders have not delivered. In fact, most defenders haven’t delivered… So, I think this makes this a tough one.
But let’s look at the best players from the best fixtures.
I find it hard to consider a team without Trent Alexander Arnold.
I know, he’s not a great defender, but he is excellent in attack. His ceiling is super high, and he just registered another two assists against Leeds, on top of his one against Arsenal. If Liverpool get a clean sheet and he gets an attacking return (which are both very possible) then you’re quids in. This is all true of Andy Robertson too, but he’s just less good than Trent in attack.
To me, doubling up on Liverpool defence just feels a) too expensive – there is every chance they concede and your player does nothing – and b) too much as you miss out on potentially owning two Liverpool attackers. But, if you really want to do it, I think Van Dijk is a better option than Robbo for your second spot.
Arsenal are the other ‘premium’ team with a good defensive fixture. Yes, they look worse without Saliba/with Holding, but White for 4.9 feels like a bargain to me. Likewise with the Liverpool picks, you have to consider that you can only own three players from any one team so White takes up a spot for any of at least four Arsenal attackers.
Crystal Palace are a cheap defence that look pretty solid, and can help enable your team. Guaita is injured, so Johnstone in goal at 4.4 looks like a good pick. Similarly, Guehi and Mitchell are only 4.4 each. Their attack is enjoying a bit of success at the moment but it’s quite out of character for them, so it might be a good idea to double or even triple up on defence here.
Bournemouth are another cheap source of points. Neto has the joint third highest save points in the game so is capable of delivering a three pointer even if he concedes. In case you’re curious, the order goes:
- Raya – 15
- Jose Sa – 13
- Neto – 12
- Leno – 12
- Guaita – 12
Adam Smith is also only 4.3 and can easily sit on your bench.
Finally, Leicester goalkeeper Iverson is a super cheap enabler/bench goalkeeper at only 3.8.
Best Midfielders and Attackers
In terms of Liverpool, as you will have seen, Salah is in great form since the World Cup and I think he is pretty much essential on your free hit.
Darwin and Gakpo are the other options I am looking at.
Darwin has higher upside but is soooooooooooooooooo inconsistent. I don’t understand how he misses such ‘easy’ chances.
Jota feels like more of a risky pick given his fitness. Having said that, all these guys are likely to play less than 90 minutes. And you know we love a Full 90…
Arsenal just have so many options. In order, I think it goes like this: Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard, Jesus. They are all great and you want at least two of these. If you do double up on Liverpool defence, I would probably go all out attack here.
I don’t have much faith in Leeds mid or attack but if you want to go there, I would probably pick one of Harrison or Rodrigo. Both cheap and pretty good players with good pedigree.
Palace are more fun. My boy Roy has got them playing well, and I think Olise and Eze are good. Not great, but good.
For Brentford, the only option is Toney. It’s a difficult call, this. Brentford are great at home, Villa are in incredible form since the World Cup.
Bad Fixtures, Great Players – Kane, Watkins, Trippier
Firstly, on paper, the Watkins fixture appears bad on paper, but it’s actually not. Brentford have been overperforming their expected goals conceded all season, and are currently five goals ahead of where they ‘should’ be.
Raya has been making so many saves that he is outperforming his expected goals prevented by 3.5 (the second highest in the league behind Leno’s 4.70).
PLUS! Watkins is on fire since Emery took over. Therefore, I see no reason to go without him.
Trippier is hard.
There isn’t really anyone else with a higher ceiling than him in defence. If you paid as little as I did for him then it’s hard to remove the highest scoring defender in the league. That being said, I really don’t know what will happen in this game against Spurs. Personally, I will probably keep him because of ownership – he’s owned by 68% of players, so I don’t mind being risk averse in this spot.
And that leads me to Kane. You can hold him if you want, but I don’t mind going without. Spurs looked dreadful, as did he, in the last game. Newcastle are a better side.
Anyone Else?
Bowen has been scoring well recently and West Ham are coming off the back of a great result.
Solanke looks good and is in good form.
Maddison is available… but Leicester are terrible.
Andreas is still only 4.3. Not a great option, but often played as false-9 this week and should be on set pieces.
Isak or Wilson are eminently capable of coring against Spurs. But there is every chance that you don’t pick the right one, and end up with the one on the bench.
Otherwise it feels like its just Villa players: Buendia in midfield, or Mings and Moreno at the back. Of course, they go up against Ivan Toney’s Brentford, so probably will concede…
Some Drafts
Shoutout to https://fpl.team/, which I am using for these drafts. I’m obviously looking at what I might do myself, but this is also really fun.
Single Liv/Ars D, Double Liv/Ars Attack
This was the draft I had in my head when I was writing this piece. It’s less differential and fun than I had in mind five weeks ago when I planned this out but it’s good.
Double Liverpool D, All Out Arsenal Attack
Similarly, looks good I just don’t think I can bear to watch Liverpool in desperation of a clean sheet.
The Big Midfield
Daaaamn, look at that midfield….
No, don’t look at Mitchell. Look at the midfield! I know Greenwood doesn’t play. LOOK AT THE MIDFIELD!
This is quite a fun draft.
Captaincy Corner
I think you’d be hard pushed to look past an Arsenal mid/attacker or Salah. Pick your fave.
I don’t think Kane is a great option. He is consistent but not explosive this year.
That’s It.
Keep an eye out for a more general FPL piece later in the week, and don’t forget the Friday deadline.
And, make sure you follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/full90fpl – to tell me why Olise is actually a great pick.