It was a but of a subdued Gameweek 30 for me in FPL. I’m up 2% to 178k, which I’m happy with given my season so far. Most importantly, I am now top of the Full 90 Football Public League. You can join here (but only if you’re doing worse than me, okay?):
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/l5cp5z
(Code: l5cp5z)
In our preview this week, we look at free hit strategy, Salah (again), the top 15 FPL players since the World Cup, and Rashford’s injury. All that before we get into the usual fixture ticker, buy/sell and captaincy corner.
What does your free hit, or lack of free hit, mean for short-term strategy?
Your free hit is an incredibly valuable tool. If you don’t know how it works, be sure to check out our FPL Explained piece on the topic here.
If you still have it, you are most likely using it in Gameweek 32 to avoid blanks, or in 34 to take advantage of doubles.
The key thing to think about now is that you only get one transfer the week after you play your free hit.
So, if you plan on using your free hit in 32 and have a free transfer or two this week, then you use them or lose them. Using them to optimise your team for fixtures after 32, including double Gameweek 34, is a good strategy.
If you aren’t using your free hit in 32 or don’t have one left, then transferring in good players with good fixtures AND who play in 32 is a good strategy.
Salah on my mind… still…
Much to (Arsenal fan) Joe’s disappointment, Mo Salah looked tasty against Arsenal and put up 2.15 xG. This did include a penalty miss, his third of the season, which is leading to speculation about him losing penalty taking duties.
Personally, I’m not that worried about that. I’m more worried that he explodes this week against Leeds who just conceded five goals (FIVE!) to a crap Crystal Palace attack. Liverpool will be away from home and have been much worse on the road this season, but I think they have enough to beat Leeds comprehensively.
Plus, don’t forget my table from last week, which set out the highest scoring players since the World Cup. I’ve updated it below.
Top 15 Players Since the World Cup:
| Name | Team | Cost | Starts | Mins | Points |
| Rashford | MUN | 7.3 | 14 | 1255 | 112 |
| Martinelli | ARS | 6.6 | 15 | 1256 | 98 |
| Kane | TOT | 11.8 | 15 | 1350 | 96 |
| Saka | ARS | 8.6 | 15 | 1355 | 96 |
| Watkins | AVL | 7.5 | 15 | 1227 | 93 |
| Haaland | MCI | 12.0 | 14 | 1141 | 92 |
| March | BHA | 5.1 | 14 | 1198 | 90 |
| Mitoma | BHA | 5.5 | 14 | 1213 | 89 |
| Odegaard | ARS | 6.9 | 16 | 1393 | 84 |
| Salah | LIV | 12.8 | 14 | 1268 | 84 |
| Fernandes | MUN | 9.6 | 15 | 1346 | 78 |
| Grealish | MCI | 6.8 | 13 | 1151 | 78 |
| Toney | BRE | 7.9 | 14 | 1248 | 77 |
| Trippier | NEW | 6.1 | 14 | 1227 | 74 |
| Kepa | CHE | 4.7 | 16 | 1440 | 70 |
Basically, Salah’s performance since the World Cup has been pretty good. And now there is a possible way for me to get him in, because…
Rashford’s Injured!
📣 Rashford injury news 📣
🗣 @ManUtd: “Assessment of the injury suggests that Marcus will be unavailable for a few games, but is expected to be back for the season run-in.”#FPL https://t.co/Fhgj4HxoPl
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) April 12, 2023
Rashford is injured for at least a few weeks. We know this thanks to Ten Haag’s pre-game press conference for their Europa League match.
In theory, you could bench him – he might be back for double Gameweek 34. But then again, he might not. When faced with this sort of dilemma, I like to think about what I know and what I don’t know.
I know he will miss at least this weekend’s game. I don’t know when he will be back. Therefore, the logical thing is to sell him.
I already have Maddison, who is getting jettisoned out of my team ASAP. So, I can take a hit to make him Andreas, who I will then bench. That gives me enough money to replace Rashford with Salah and roll out with the Threemium of Kane, Haaland and Salah.
Of course, it’s a minus four for this move, but I’m looking at Salah’s fixtures to the end of the season and I want him.
The more boring, possibly more sensible option, is to straight swap Rashford to Grealish. Grealish is a new face in our top 15 players since the World Cup after his goal and assist at the weekend. He has racked up seven assists and four goals since the World Cup.
The trouble is, you just never know when Pep will rotate him. He looks completely nailed right now. But with fixture pile ups and competing demands (Champions League, FA Cup) we can never be certain. Mahrez had a similar barnstorming run and then just disappeared off the face of the earth in Gameweek 24.
For what it’s worth, I do think Grealish is probably different, since Phil Foden is still recovering from appendicitis, but I’d be shocked if Grealish started every game to the end of the season.
For a deep dive into this whole situation, including a rogue call for Son Heung-Min, check out Joe’s full article on Rashford replacements here.
The Fixture Ticker:
The classic:
| 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | |
| Liverpool | lee | NFO | whu | TOT/FUL | BRE |
| Fulham | eve | LEE | avl | MCI/liv | LEI |
| Palace | sou | EVE | wol | WHU | tot |
| Wolves | BRE | lei | CRY | bha | AVL |
| Newcastle | avl | TOT | eve | SOU | ARS |
Without Gameweek 32 for free hitters:
| 31 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | |
| Liverpool | lee | whu | TOT/FUL | BRE | lei |
| Fulham | eve | avl | MCI/liv | LEI | sou |
| Man U | nfo | tot | AVL/bha | whu | WOL |
| Man City | LEI | ARS | ful/WHU | LEE | eve |
| Brighton | che | nfo | WOL/MUN | EVE | ars/new* |
| Newcastle | avl | eve | SOU | ARS | lee/BHA* |
(*Brighton and Newcastle’s double Gameweek in 36 is not yet confirmed but likely.)
So, if you don’t plan on free hitting in 32 then you should look to Liverpool and Newcastle assets. Wolves could offer some value in defence. The other two have no options.
If you are free hitting, you get to target some of the best teams in FPL: Liverpool, Man U, Man City, Brighton and Newcastle (though, I should add that Newcastle are only here because they may have a double).
Should I Buy?
As usual, wait for news! But here are my thoughts as of Friday:
Grealish – Yes. Good buy… but beware of rotation.
Martinelli – Yes. The one we all should have kept. See the table above.
Haaland – Yes. Obviously.
Mings – Nah. If you want a cheap defender then I get it, because he has scored well recently, but we want future points and Villa play Newcastle, Brentford, Fulham and Man United next. There’s probably only one clean sheet there.
White/Gabriel – Yes.
Jesus – I’m more concerned about who you are transferring out, if this is your move.
Mitoma/March/MaCallister – Yes. Mitoma the best.
Olise – No. We’re not buying into Palace yet.
Schar/Botman – Yes. Botman is cheaper.
De Bruyne – No. Possibly injured after the Champions League, but at the very least he is fatigued.
Isak – I prefer Watkins as he is nailed. Not convinced he starts both games in the double.
Should I Sell?
With the same caveat about waiting for news, here are my current thoughts:
Rashford – Yes. As above.
Shaw – No. I’d probably hold at this point, particularly if you can navigate Gameweek 32. He is likely to be back soon according to Ten Haag.
Saliba – Yes. Injured.
Maddison – Yes. He’s crap and so are his fixtures/team/manager etc.
Toney – Not a priority, but I don’t mind selling.
Chilwell – Yes. Not nailed and they still can’t score.
Fernandes – I’d probably hold at this point. Casemiro is back now and likely to cover the deeper role, so Bruno can get forward.
Havertz/Felix – They can’t score so yes.
Captaincy corner
We are back to Haaland.
Home against Leicester is just such an easy fixture. We don’t need to overthink this one.
And that’s it for today. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and tweet at us when we screw up 😉 Or, you know, just ask questions. Doesn’t even have to be about FPL… why don’t you ask us about our favourite cheese?