What a rollercoaster the past couple of weeks have been. After all that, doubling and tripling up on Brighton and Brentford looks like it was a good idea… And even better if you bench boosted!
It’s going to be a mega-piece this week, looking back at GW 27, whether a 26 wildcard was a good idea, what we think about Liverpool, how many players you need for blank gameweek 28, and a great bit of hilarity from FPL Twitter, and all that before we get into the usual. There’s so much to get to that it’s time for me to stop rambling and get stuck into some cold, hard analysis.
What Did We Learn in Gameweek 27?
- We should have bench boosted. The Arsenal team and Trippier made us all regret not just pulling the trigger – the lesson is that good players on good teams are good, regardless of whether they play once or not. My 29 bench boost right now includes 3 single gameweek players, and I feel fine about it.
- I can’t tell whether Leicester’s defence was dreadful, or whether Chelsea’s attack was brilliant. I’m more inclined to believe the latter because of recent history, but I’m not super sold on Chelsea D regardless. The clamour around Chilwell, I find a little strange. When he plays he is great, but he doesn’t always play… and does always get injured. If you’re willing to take the risk then fine, but I’m not.
- Palace’s attack is one of the absolute woooorst in the league. 3 games in a row I think they have an xG below one. I know they have good fixtures soon, but I’m not interested. Zaha is a troll and he often can perform ,but it’s so hard to tell when he will go off. They couldn’t even score against Brighton’s so-so defence.
- Richarlison would be a good pick if he was nailed. Kane continues to perform despite the way Spurs play.
- Brighton assets just proved again how good they are. March, MacAllister and Mitoma are all great, and certainly captaincy options in double gameweeks.
- Ivan Toney is brilliant still. He picked up a yellow though, which means if he gets one more then he will be banned.
Was Wildcard 26 a Bad Idea?
Last week, I told you to wait and see and not attribute one decision to wildcard as being disastrous after one week. Well, this week Joe is up 20% in overall rank (after a drop of 3% the week before), and I am up 10% (after a drop of 6% the week before).
So, both Joe and I are up on where we were before the Liverpool 7-0 win. Again, time will tell, but right now it looks like an okay decision.
Talking Point – What the Hell Do We Think About Liverpool Now?
Defensively, I still think they’re crap.
Here are their last 5 results:
27 – Lost 1-0 to Bournemouth
26 – Beat Man United 7-0
25 – Beat Wolves 2-0
25 – Drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace
24 – Won 2-0 against Newcastle
That’s 4 clean sheets but look a little deeper. The Man United xG should result in a 3-1 win to Liverpool. Wolves and Palace are two of the worst attacking teams in the league. Newcastle hit a bad spell and aren’t prolific going forward.
Most blame Trent Alexander Arnold for their woeful defence but Virgil Van Dijk has also gone off the boil. His complete lack of interest in chasing the man with the ball was one of the reasons they conceded against Bournemouth. And when you are spending 6-7.5 mn on a defender, they have to get clean sheets and be nailed – if not, then screw ‘em.
As for the attackers, Salah was unlucky not to get a return this week. Penalties are incredibly valuable in FPL, and he always takes them. He is excellent, regardless of fixtures. Whether he offers excellent actual value is less clear this season, but he’s still great.
The rest of the attack is either not nailed or not firing so, whilst I’m pissed I missed out on the mega returns last week, I don’t feel like my judgement was completely wrong. Though, I’m willing to admit I was too eager to rid myself of the King of FPL – Mo Salah.
How Many is ‘Enough’ Players for Blank Gameweek 28?
This is not an exact science but I think 9 players is enough.
The reason for this is that there aren’t that many good players to bring in anyway. Here is the logic:
- You probably have one playing keeper already.
- Very few defences are good – we don’t have shithouse defensive teams in the PL anymore – so there aren’t many good defenders worth transferring in and immediately transferring out.
- In the midfield, you probably already have two Arsenal assets and there aren’t many others worth owning this week besides Maddison.
- In attack, you want Kane, Toney, Watkins this week. Many of you will already have that. Many of you will lose 0.4 if you sell Haaland for one of these guys. I don’t think that’s a great idea but if you are going to do it, I would try to use it as an opportunity. If, like me, you have Kane, Toney and Haaland, then I would sell Haaland for Watkins and take Toney out for Haaland next week – that way there is less risk around Toney because its likely he will pick up a ban soon.
Should I Wildcard Now?
If you have your bench boost and/or triple captain, now is still a good time to wildcard. Because you can’t play two chips in one week, you need to wildcard now to bench boost in the biggest double gameweek of the year in gameweek 29.
If you don’t have your bench boost and/or triple captain, it is better to wait until next week. You will have more information and can set yourself up perfectly for 29 and going forward.
Of course, this is a simplistic way of looking at things, and your wildcard is team dependent. If you have loads of problems (injured players etc.) then playing it is fine.
What If I Want to Free Hit?
I just did a quick team on www.FPL.team and here is what I came out with
Triple Arsenal is essential. White could be Saliba or Gabriel and Odegaard could be Trossard or Martinelli, but Saka is key. Kane is also essential and probably your captain (ignore that I forgot to change my cap in the picture). Trippier is also essential because he’s an FPL god.
As for the rest, in goal I’ve stuck with Kepa because that Everton fixture is great. Plenty to choose from as a second keeper. I couldn’t be bothered to pick one so just left Ward in, but Martinez or Pope are better,
In defence, I know I just said I don’t love Chilwell, but on a free hit it feels fine to take the gamble that he starts with a good fixture. Mee might not keep a clean but could nick a goal, and Kilman is a good shout for a clean.
Maddison is the obvious extra pick in midfield. He is excellent when he can be bothered, and always has a shot of scoring a screamer. Barnes could also be a good shout, but I went Bailey for my bench player because I like that fixture against Bournemouth.
Toney is obvious and so is Watkins up top.
Fun Hijinks – FPL Twitterati Goes Mad
Before we get into the rest of the usual preview stuff, the highlights from a funny week on Twitter:
After Official FPL tweeted out that Solly March won’t get his goal, people started talking about taking legal action against FPL towers…
I'm looking for someone to get involved with me to take legal action against @OfficialFPL
It will be a really good opportunity for any solicitors or aspiring shitposters out there with great exposure for your work
It will only cost you a small fee. Send DM if interested! https://t.co/0pziQIqwqg
— Jimmy the Claret ⚛️ (@ClaretFPL) March 15, 2023
Even Specsavers got in on the action
Booking you in if you change your mind again
— Specsavers (@Specsavers) March 15, 2023
Content creators got it in the neck after flip-flopping (we would never)
You literally told us to buy Estupinan/Mee 2 weeks ago under the literal strategy of bench boosting in 29?
Do you get 4 free transfers a week as an expert manager? Cos I don't.
So we now remove doublers and leave our singlers there do we? (Kane/Haaland/Arsenal)
Clusterfuck
— HM (@HinduMonkey) March 13, 2023
And one in particular – as spotted by the aforementioned Jimmy the Claret – got into trouble for taking monetising too far. Don#t worry guys, it will only cost a small fee…
When these funny moments pop up on your timeline always take a screenshot just in case it gets deleted 👀😂 pic.twitter.com/PTw9VUSSUr
— T (@ManOnPod_Thomas) March 15, 2023
The Fixture Ticker
| 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| Aston Villa | BOU | che/lei | NFO | NEW | bre |
| Leeds | wol | ars/NFO | CRY | LIV | ful |
| Newcastle | nfo | MUN/whu | bre | avl | TOT |
| Chelsea | EVE | AVL/LIV | wol | BHA | mun |
| Bournemouth | avl | FUL/BHA | lei | tot | WHU |
The only new entrant to the top five fixtures for the next five is Bournemouth. But they’re crap anyway so we can ignore them…
Despite the result at the weekend, Leeds are also a disaster.
Chelsea doesn’t score often, but they also don’t give up many, and they have a few upcoming matches with excellent defensive matchups.
Newcastle’s performance has technically slipped… However, they suffered consecutive losses to Manchester City, Manchester United, and Liverpool. Next up, they have some outstanding defensive opponents; a Trips/Botman double might be back on the table.
Watkins is the only Villa player you need. He’s been in excellent form, and those future games look promising.
Should I Buy?
Ignoring the free hit:
Chilwell – If you’re willing to take the risk that he gets rotated, then fine, but I won’t advise it.
Watkins – Great pick with great fixtures. I’ll consider bringing him in for Toney next week because Toney is close to a ban, which could happen mid-gameweek with the double.
Kane – Great pick, terrible team.
Almiron – I guess he’s okay. Don’t love it.
Maddison – He’s a great pick for this week. Hard to capture his returns, but lightning in a bottle when you do.
Martinelli – Good pick.
Havertz – Bad pick. Bad attacking team.
Son – Bad pick this year. Don’t have much faith in him.
Trippier – Yes!
Should I Sell?
Ignoring the free hit:
Haaland – I do not really understand the clamour to sell. He’s incredible and I don’t think it’s worth wasting two transfers to get him in and out again and lose value. I’d rather have him next week than any other striker, regardless of doubles.
Salah – Sure. He blanks and has terrible fixtures.
De Bruyne – Yeah, fine. He’s class but not delivering great value, plus he blanks.
Rashford – I would think you must have other blankers you can sell. Keep the value and keep him for his double next week.
Mahrez – Yes, why do you still have him.
Darwin – Don’t mind selling at all.
Trent – Yes. Defensively not good as a team.
Captaincy Corner
It’s hard to look past Kane. His returns are reliable despite the way Spurs play.
I don’t know who I would pick out of Watkins and Toney, but I think Saka would be my second choice. Palace are solid at home but he is Arsenal’s best asset and they’re top of the league for a reason.
My Moves
I think I will move Bruno Fernandes to Maddison and roll the other transfer. That way I will get ten men out and leave myself with two transfers for the week after.
That’s it. Good luck everyone!