Fantasy Premier League Tips – Gameweek 27 Preview, and Wildcard Aftermath

There was one main question on my mind coming out of the last weekend, and – based on Twitter and Reddit – I wasn’t the only one. Namely, was the wildcard a disaster? 

Initially, it does seems disastrous, but it’s not that simple. 

Liverpool hauling points means that wildcard teams probably scored 20-30 points less than pre-wildcard. But, we didn’t really wildcard with solely gameweek 26 in mind – we were looking more long-term.  

Basically, don’t get too upset – we haven’t seen how this will end yet. Aaron Sorkin explains it better than I could in a cautionary tale from Charlie Wilson’s War: 

On his sixteenth birthday the boy gets a horse as a present. All of the people in the village say, “Oh, how wonderful!” 

The Zen master says, “We’ll see.” 

One day, the boy is riding and gets thrown off the horse and hurts his leg. He’s no longer able to walk, so all of the villagers say, “How terrible!” 

The Zen master says, “We’ll see.” 

Some time passes and the village goes to war. All of the other young men get sent off to fight, but this boy can’t fight because his leg is messed up. All of the villagers say, “How wonderful!” 

The Zen master says, “We’ll see.” 

This story’s lesson is, hopefully, pretty clear. We have a tendency to categorise things as “good” or “bad” too quickly. In FPL specifically, we tend to classify things as “bad” very quickly indeed… 

My current thoughts are that we may have wildcarded one gameweek early and been severely punished for it. The Liverpool-United result was insane, and could never have been predicted. xG has it as 3-1 win for Liverpool. Obviously, xG isn’t always right, but we know that Liverpool got a bit lucky to win by such a margin. 

That being said, I think I may have been too harsh on my judgement of Liverpool. Salah appears to be back. Since losing 3-0 to Wolves, Liverpool have had five clean sheets in a row – now, I still think they have been a little fortunate in some of those game, but it’s hard to argue that they aren’t back. 

What Did We Learn from Gameweek 26? 

Gameweek 26 was a painful one for many, including both myself and Joe. We both got Bruno right in time for his meltdown at Anfield. We both dropped our wildcard, with mixed results. I benched Mitoma’s 13pts; Joe benched Veltman’s 13.

• March, MacAllister and Mitoma are all great. If you benched Mitoma, or had March, then I think you were unlucky. 
• Sanchez is no longer nailed. It sounds like De Zerbi has settled on Steele, but I’m cautious against him in case he is not actually nailed either. As always, don’t waste a transfer on binning Sanchez (assuming you have Ward/another playing backup), but obviously don’t get him a GW27 wildcard.
• Toney is worth… gambling on. We get plenty wrong on this site, God knows, but I’m pleased my call to ignore Toney’s impending ban(s) was correct.
• Arsenal defence no longer essential? Sure, they kept back-to-back cleans in the previous two games, but they were against Everton and Leicester, two of the worst attacking teams in the league. They haven’t looked particularly solid at the back apart from that, and conceding two at home to Bournemouth is a bad look. Their upcoming fixtures are fine, but their mids (Saka, the Ood, Martinelli) are far more appealing than the defenders right now.
• Salah scores a lot of FPL points. Yep, who knew. He’s now back to being the top-scoring midfielder, like he is every year. Every year we still debate whether he’s worth it or not. In this supposed ‘down’ year, he’s currently got 11 goals and eight assists in 25 games, plus 10 clean sheets to boot.

The Fixture Ticker 

If you hadn’t heard, Brentford have a good run of fixtures. Well, they do in 27 and 28 anyway – their double in 29 isn’t good at all, and they’re much worse away than at home. Toney is basically must-own right now.

Chelsea don’t score goals, but don’t concede many either, and they’ve got a few very nice defensive fixtures coming up. 

Technically Newcastle’s form has dropped… but their recent losses were against Liverpol, Man U, and Man City back to back. They’ve got some great defensive fixtures coming up – a Trips/Botman double could be back on the menu.

The only Villa player you want is Watkins. He’s been in great form, and those upcoming fixtures are decent.

Leeds are rubbish. I can’t even remember the last Leeds player who was FPL-relevant. Rodrigo… five months ago?

Gameweek 27 Headaches 

I cannot bring myself to sell one of Rashford, Fernandes, Saka or Odegaard for a third Brighton asset in midfield. United play Southampton, which is irresistible, however terrible they were at Anfield. Arsenal play Fulham, who are solid, but Saka and Odegaard have been consistent throughout the season.  

Currently, I am benching White, Odegaard and Trippier. White and Trips both have good defensive fixtures, but I’ve tripled up on Brentford/Brighton at the back for their doubles.

It’s actually really tempting to bench boost this week, simply because I’m benching such good players/fixtures right now. But I think that’s probably a mistake ahead of the GW 29 doubles… 

Should I Buy? 

• Brighton assets – Yes, and prioritise the mids (Mitoma, March, MacAllister) over the defenders.
• Brentford assets – Yes, and prioritise Toney over all the others.
• Salah – Oof, that’s hard. He has a great fixture in gameweek 28, blanks, and then has an awful double. But, its still Salah… So, I’ll say it is team dependent. If you have spare transfers or can manage the 28 blank, then sure.
• Gakpo – No, I still don’t think he is nailed.
• Darwin – Similar to Salah but he’s just not as good, so I don’t think I would.
• Watkins – Yes, great fixtures and he looks good.
• Foden – No. He’ll score loads of goals, play great, and be benched in a few weeks anyway. You’ll be stuck wondering whether to keep him, because surely this will be the week he starts again, and meanwhile he’s coming off the bench to give you 1pt every week. This exact thing happened to Foden already this season, and just happened to Mahrez too.

Should I Sell? 

• Mahrez – Yes. Not nailed. No City midfielder ever is.
• Nketiah – Yes, high time to get out.
• De Bruyne – Yes – not delivering value.
• Odegaard – No. He’s too good and plays next week.
• Kane – No, I don’t think so. He’s pretty solid and just ticks along despite the team around him.
• Shaw – For Estupinian, yes, but for anyone else, I am not sure.
• Mitrovic – It’s way past time to bail on him.
• Almiron – Yes. He’s got tough defences coming up, and only has one return in the last eight gameweeks.

Captaincy Corner 

I think captaining a doubler is the most sensible thing to do, even if none of the players are actually elite FPL options.

I actually prefer the Brighton mids – Mitoma, MacAllister and March – to Toney. Brighton are a better team overall, and their fixtures are superior.