Fantasy Premier League Tips – Gameweek 26 Preview, Plus Wildcard and Chip Strategy 

Huge week in FPL this week. Huge! And it’s all mainly because of the FA Cup… 

We will start by looking back at last gameweek, analyse what the FA Cup results mean for the fixtures going forward, and look at a possible 26 wildcard before the normal Should I Buy, Should I Sell sections. 

This is gonna be a mammoth piece. So buckle in. 

What Did We Learn from Gameweek 25?

• Double gameweeks are often overrated. I spoke last week about my lack of appetite to take a minus 8 and I think that’s been borne out by the results. It can be tempting to take these mega hits for extra fixtures, but frequently, unless the player is absolutely elite, you regret it. 
• It’s easy to get caught up in the Twitter hype. I was texting and annoying Joe all week. All I saw was content creators taking massive hits and FPL Twitter was full of -8s. I  almost got caught up in it. I spoke about this before, but having a person (i.e. your own Joe) with sound advice that you can bounce ideas of is sooooo helpful in these situations. So, thanks Joe. 
• Nketiah is not nailed, Martinelli is a troll. Those holding Nketiah already knew they had to get rid soon, as Jesus isn’t far off from being fit, but now we know he isn’t even nailed. Martinelli may also not be nailed for 90 each week, so I don’t regret selling him. BUT, it was incredibly frustrating to see him return two weeks in a row. 
• Liverpool are still dreadful. The Palace game was awful. They’re lucky Zaha is injured otherwise they could have lost. Palace can’t score without him and that’s the only reason that they keep that clean. 
• Mahrez goes back into the Pep roulette, do not trust pile. Who could have seen this coming?

• Danny Ings could be very interesting if he can nail down that spot. It turns out that all West Ham needed to win a game was an actual striker. They won a game 4-0 despite having the worst attack in the league. We could see an uptick in form for them. 
• Target Forest away games. We know that Forest are woeful away from home. So, feel free to target them. 
• Chelsea defence has me worried. Without Thiago Silva, who has picked up an injury for about 4-6 weeks, I don’t have much faith in them. James and Chilwell appear to have nailed down the starting spots again, but they are playing as full-backs so their attacking output will likely be lessened a lot. Fixtures are good, but I am not convinced they are worth it. Also they both always get injured… 
• Toney pleads guilty to some things. Ivan Toney has pleaded guilty to a number of these gambling offences but is fighting others. There is zero transparency about this process so he may get a severe ban now or in ten years. I think we just play as if we don’t know about it and then deal with it when/if he gets banned. 

How Did the FA Cup Affect Fixtures?

The fixtures in Blank Gameweek 28 are nearly set.

6 teams will definitely Blank:
Man Utd
Brighton
Man City
West Ham
Liverpool
Fulham

Spurs and Saints will almost certainly be added to the list of teams who Blank in GW28 tomorrow night.

The other 12 teams won't Blank in GW28. pic.twitter.com/rBNpun0l6W

— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) February 28, 2023

As always, Ben Crellin has all the news. In gameweek 28: 

That means that Brentford have five fixtures in the three gameweeks 27-29. Toney becomes very appealing in that way. But he may be banned for yellow cards or gambling, so it’s obviously a risk. Raya similarly looks interesting – statistically the defence isn’t great, but at least he makes saves. It’s also worth noting that four out of the five games are away and Brentford rarely score or win away from home. 

Wildcard and Longer-Term Chip Strategy

I’ve spent a lot of time on www.fpl.team this morning. I’m pretty convinced that wildcarding now or in 33 are both fine, and that free hit 28 or 32 are also fine.  

I genuinely think it’s team dependent. 

Few thoughts on FPL Chip Strategy.

Don't get tied into any one strategy right now, we can't know anything properly until after Wednesday when the FA Cup matches are finished.

Be prepared to change your mind as needed.

And remember… pic.twitter.com/hteilXJVh0

— Andy (@LetsTalk_FPL) February 28, 2023

And risk appetite dependent. Wildcarding in 32 means you’re trusting Ben Crellin and/or James from Planet FPL to correctly predict fixtures. They are normally right, but they have been wrong in the past. You can use www.fpl.team to look at Let’s Talk FPL’s fixture predictions to play it all out. 

If you are tripled up on Liverpool you most likely have to play wildcard now or free hit 28. I think they’re crap so don’t mind the wildcard. If you have other issues like Thiago Silva, Mitro, Nketiah etc. then you should seriously be considering a wildcard. 

Regardless, you will likely have to accept you won’t get a full 11 out in either 28 or 32. 

I do now think free hit 32 is mildly better than 28. But only if the predicted fixtures stay the same. 

That’s because Brighton, Chelsea, City, United, Newcastle and Spurs will likely blank in 32. And they all have excellent fixtures prior to that, so dead-ending into 32 becomes incredibly difficult. Plus, Rashford, Kane, Haaland, Trippier all blank – those are the highest scoring FPL assets in the game right now. And you aren’t gonna want to sell any of them. 

For me, I can get 9 players out for 28, which I think is fine. I presume you can too, if you haven’t tripled Liverpool. 

For fun, I just did a free hit draft of gameweek 32 with the predicted fixtures: 

Anyway, here is my plan A: 

26 – Salah and Mitro out for Fernandes and Toney (-4) 

27 – Andreas and Patterson out for Mitoma and Estupinian/Dunk (-4) – 3 doublers 

28 – Kane to Watkins – 9 players 

29 – Roll transfer – 9 doublers 

30 – Spare transfer 

31 – Watkins to Kane – 4 doublers 

32 – Free hit 

33 – Wildcard. Although I don’t know why when I have 6 doublers for 34 and Kane, Haaland, Trippier, triple Arsenal, Bruno and Rashford… 

Plan B is to wildcard now: 

This is 6 transfers, and reflects the current value of my team – yours might be different. 

The ridiculous thing about this is that, because the prices are stupid this year, I can have three premium players, the highest scoring three midfielders so far, the highest scoring defender so far AND not be forced to have a non-playing forward. 

The logic is to capture doubles in 27, 29 and 31 and set myself up for blank gameweek 28. 

27 – roll transfer – 5 doublers 

28 – Kane and Fernandes to Watkins and Maddison/someone else – 9 players 

29 – Odegaard to Fernandes – 12 doublers plus White, Saka and Haaland – Bench Boost 

30 – Roll transfer 

31 – Toney, Maddison, Pinnock out for Kane, Odegaard, Botman (-4) – 5 doublers 

32 – Free Hit 

33 – Roll 

34 – Two free transfers and seven double gameweekers already 

Now that I write it all out, I kind of like Plan B more. More doublers, fewer hits and I can’t see why I would need to wildcard in 33 in Plan A. I don’t really mind a sub-optimal bench boost because its normally crap anyway – White, Saka and Haaland all have good fixtures in 29 (Haaland plays Liverpool – yep, that’s a good fixture nowadays). It’s just that risk that it doesn’t quite play out like I hope it does… 

The Fixture Ticker

There are six teams in here this week to prove a point… These are still the six best fixture runs. But you can see that Brighton, despite having a blank in 28, still have great fixtures. 

Should I Buy?

Toney – Yes. Like I say above, don’t think about the off-field stuff. We just don’t know. Go with the third-best FPL striker. 

Rashford – Yes. Why didn’t you have him already? They blank in 28 so make sure you have that covered. 

Watkins – Yes. Great fixtures, looking good under Emery. 

Mee/Henry/Pinnock – I prefer the latter two because they are cheap, but Mee has the higher ceiling as he is a goal threat. 

Mitoma – Yes. Ignore the last two FPL games. He scored in the cup in the week. 

MacAllister – certainly not ahead of Mitoma. Think he is fine but certainly don’t love him. 

March – is flagged and possibly won’t play. 

Estupinian/Dunk/Veltman – Estupinian worries me because of fitness, so I’ll probably take one of the others, but all good picks. 

Shaw – No. Liverpool are awful but they can pull out a performance and score against United. Their defence hasn’t been fantastic recently, so Shaw has lucked into some points. 

Raya – only if on wildcard or as a luxury transfer. Not a big fan of goalie transfers. Same for Sanchez. 

Should I Sell?

Mitrovic – Yes. Punt him into the bin. 

Nketiah – Yep, like it – not nailed any more. 

Mahrez – Yep, bin him. 

De Bruyne – sub-par FPL performances for the money you’re spending. Bin him. 

Thiago Silva – Yes. Out for around 4-6 weeks. 

Gakpo/Darwin/Salah/Trent – generally wastes of money. 

Martinelli – I probably hold if I have him. Let’s see how this plays out. 

Conclusion

Right, that’s it. This is all very complicated, but the key takeaways are: 

• Plan the upcoming gameweeks to make sure you have enough players. 
• You should be bringing in doublers ahead of 27. 
• Have fun! 

Good luck all.