It was a low-scoring gameweek 24 for most of us in FPL. Take solace in the fact that everyone else had a poor gameweek and it wasn’t just you; or celebrate like mad if you had a good one.
It’s a pretty simple one to write again this week – buy doublers, sell blankers. As always though, there is an extra degree of complexity to it all so… don’t stop reading! The biggest complexity comes from the announcement of the double gameweek 29, which changes all of our prospects significantly.
Before we get into it, it’s a Friday deadline this week – don’t forget!
What Did We Learn in Gameweek 24?
We have got to the point where we know the main player options, so the review pieces are a bit less useful. So, I’m going to try and focus on the key points from the previous gameweek rather than reviewing each game:
- Rashford has made himself into a clear captaincy shout every week. I don’t think it was a great mistake to captain Haaland this week, just bad luck he didn’t score from basically 1xG. But, up until now Haaland was my perma-cap. Rashy is now good enough, and Haaland in enough of a downturn, for this to be a conversation going forward.
- Bruno put himself firmly into my thoughts this week. A double return after a great run of form in a good team and much cheaper than the other premium mids. I will get him in at some point this week.
- Leicester definitely should have scored though… They’re such a weird team and such a mess.
- Newcastle had a dreadful week, but you’re mad if your thinking of getting rid of Trippier. I know he has a blank and then City, but this guy is a season keeper. I’m even keeping Botman too.
- Liverpool on the other hand were great (the Madrid game doesn’t count – different competition), even before Newcastle went down to ten men. The passing and movement was ridiculous. I’m not fully in yet (read below for more) but I’m certainly more open to them than before.
- Super glad I picked Tarkowski over Kilman in the battle of the cheap defenders. I’ve got a lot of faith in Everton cleans in good fixtures to the end of the season – it’s nice to have an old school defensive shithouse manager back.
- I have no idea how Brighton didn’t score – don’t be scared to hold those assets if you want to and you can get enough players out this week.
The Fixture Ticker
| 25 | 26 | 27 | 28* | 29 | |
| Arsenal | lei/EVE | BOU | ful | CRY | LEE |
| Liverpool | cry/WOL | MUN | bou | FUL | mci/CHE |
| Aston Villa | eve | CRY | whu | BOU | che/lei |
| Brighton | BLANK | WHU | lee/CRY | MUN | BRE/bou |
| Chelsea | tot | LEE | lei | EVE | AVL/LIV |
*The ticker is not 100% accurate right now as we don’t know if Liverpool and Brighton play in 28 due to the FA cup fixtures in between 25 and 26. Its very likely Brighton blank and a 50:50 as to whether Liverpool play (depends if Fulham beat Leeds in the FA Cup).
The fixture ticker has changed a bit.
Arsenal remain the standout option, particularly after their attack pulled it together and they got the result against Villa last gameweek. No Partey makes me nervous for the defence but not enough to get out, plus Ben White was making some great runs last game.
Aston Villa and Chelsea assets are interesting as they definitely don’t blank in 28 (a lot of teams will) so if you don’t have a Free Hit available they are good buys. Probably Watkins and the Chelsea defence are the best.
Brighton blanks this week but still get in because their fixtures are so tasty and they double twice!
Liverpool is the most interesting one of all…
What Do We Do About Liverpool?
There is lots of chat on Twitter about minus fours and minus eights to bring in Liverpool assets for this mini double gameweek. The three options I think most viable are Trent, Salah and Darwin Nunez. These guys are nailed and have high ceilings which is what you’re looking for.
The trouble is, they’re all really expensive for what they are. And what they are is pretty lacklustre over the course of the season.
Trent is on 75 points – that’s less than Tim Ream. The defence is still dreadful and Newcastle should have scored a goal against them very early on. Traditionally, I would never spend over 6mn on a defender who wasn’t on to get about 12-15 clean sheets per season, regardless of attacking returns. Cleans are the bread and butter. Trent has 4 cleans and only 4 assists and one goal too – I just don’t think it’s good value unless you have money to burn.
Darwin is the 14th best forward. His underlying numbers are crazy good, he gets so many shots. But, he can’t finish. It’s hard to tell whether he will revert to the mean and start delivering or whether he is just a sub-par finisher. I’m on the fence on this one. If you can straight swap Mitro for him then definitely do it, but I’m not sure I can bring myself to drop Kane for him.
Salah is somewhat of an exception. Despite, by all accounts, a poor season for him, he remains the 6th best midfielder in the game with only three points less than De Bruyne.
I understand the clammer to get triple Liverpool. People often complain about lucky picks but you have to put yourself in the position to “get lucky.” And one way to do that is to pick double gameweek players.
The 25.7% owned, best FPL asset for four years on a double gameweek is a good pick. The rest? I’m not sure.
Others are considering Gakpo who might be a better fit for your team, but comes with a minutes risk, or Robertson who I feel similarly about as I do Trent.
Regardless, I have already moved Kev to get to Mo because one looked like he was price dropping and the other price rising. I’m still pondering Kane and Darwin and will not move for Trent as I don’t want to take a -8. You probably have two free transfers which makes Kane to Darwin easier…
Gameweek 29 Doubles and Chip Strategy
Here's another version of my spreadsheet showing the schedule up to Gameweek 34.
I've included all the possible DGW fixtures in GW34 and the probabilities of fixtures going ahead in Blank GWs 28+32.
After GW34, we'll get a Double GW in GW37 and maybe another mini DGW. pic.twitter.com/MxQmEM9MXu
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) February 22, 2023
FPL announced the Gameweek 29 doubles and in the above tweet from Ben Crellin you can see those fixtures now locked in (as well as the likely and unlikely blanks and doubles).
Basically, it’s still too complicated to work out the ideal chip strategy. After the midweek FA Cup games between 25 and 26 we will have a better idea. But, given how big double 29 is, it may now be on the cards to free hit or bench boost that week depending upon your team. We will do more on this next week.
How Many Hits Can You Take This Week?
I suspect a lot of people followed my excellent advice (and that of others), to hold free transfers for this week. I did not follow my own advice and chose to deal with my Martinelli problem. Of course he ended up scoring with the last kick of the game…
I do not like a -8 this week. I think it likely creates more problems medium term than it solves. But, a -4 feels absolutely fine. Particularly, if you are selling a blank gameweek player for a doubler.
If you have to take a -8 to get 10 players out, that’s probably okay.
Should I Buy?
Tarkowski – Yep, he’s a great price for a shithouse defence, with a double and good fixtures.
Saka, Odegaard, Saliba, White, Gabriel – All double and are good. I prefer the mids over the defenders.
Watkins – I’d rather have Toney in the medium term, but if he sorts a problem then sure.
Iwobi – Surprisingly good this season for assists but still crap. Surely you have better transfers?
Should I Sell?
Trippier– No. Just bench him. Feel free to sell Botman. Pope will be back next gameweek as he serves his ban in the cup.
Rashford – No. Just bench him. I feel better about selling Shaw as the defence has been lucky.
De Bruyne – Yep, fine. He’s possibly ill and you’re likely freeing up funds or brining in Mo.
Mitoma – I’d rather sell him than March or Estupinian if you are making space for doublers but in general he’s fine to hold and bench.
Mitrovic – Yep. He’s not been great for a while and he’s possibly injured.
Martinelli – Hard one. I don’t hate selling, I mean, I already did so. But he’s likely to get at least 90 mins over two games so I don’t think it’s automatic – depends who you replace him with basically.
Captaincy Corner
I think it’s hard to look past Saka and Salah this week. Both have double gameweeks. Saka is the man in form for the better team. Salah has the history and probably a higher ceiling. Personally, I’m leaning Saka but that might change.
Go back a few weeks and I would put Haaland in this conversation with a good fixture, despite the fact he only plays once. I don’t think I would go with him even then but I certainly won’t be doing so now.
My Moves
I previewed what I was thinking, but here it is in full. My provisional plan is:
25 – Kev to Salah
26 – Salah to Bruno, Mitro to Toney (-4) – slightly nervy of Toney’s eight yellow cards (10 to get banned).
27 – get two Brighton players for the double (-4)
28 – Free hit
29 – I will have 8 doublers and Kane, Haaland and Saka. Bench of Ward (x2), Odegaard, White and Tarko – I might bench boost here.