I got to a game this week! Although I’ve seen plenty of European football in the past 12-18 months (mostly in Barcelona), it had been a good couple of years since I’d been to a Premier League clash. The setting was chilly Villa Park, the combatants Villa and Leeds, the managers an actual tactician and a (constantly) self-professed tactician.
I love underlying stats as much as the next FPL nerd, but I’m also a big believer in the eye test. You learn a lot from actually watching the games, and see how the raw – or even the sophisticated – numbers can be misleading. Watching on TV is vastly preferable to not watching at all, of course, but watching in-person gives you a whole other level of analytical possibilities.
What did I learn in this particular matchup, for Fantasy Premier League purposes? Well, you’ll find out when we get to that match in the review (winking emoji). The most memorable and noteworthy FPL occurrence took place in the first five minutes though, when I had the rare pleasure of seeing a player I’d only recently transferred in (Lucas Digne) get taken out and helped off, thus locking in a 1pt-er for yours truly, opening up a whole in my defence, and ensuring (not that I knew it then) that I’d miss out on cleans from both Botman and White on my bench. Oh, what a laugh that was.
FPL Gameweek 20 Review
Right, let’s whip through the extra-long gameweek that was, before the next round of high-octane FPL action is upon us (the GW21 deadline is at 11:00 GMT on Saturday – don’t forget!). We’ll work in reverse chronological order here, since City vs Spurs will be the freshest game in most people’s minds.
(Note: There will be plenty of stuff here about upcoming FPL transfers too. We’re a forward-looking bunch here at Full90 FPL.)
Man City 4 – 2 Spurs
The result was about what we expected, but the way we got there was anything but. Spurs did nothing in the first half (as they tend to), but ended up grabbing two late goals and getting City booed off the pitch. Pep clearly tore into them at half-time, because they came out and absolutely blew Spurs away after that, for yet another loss to a Big Six team.
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City just won 4-2… but are they actually that good? Pep was moaning about them in his post-match interview, and – after not rotating that much early this season (for him) – now can’t seem to settle on a team he likes.
Obviously we’ve got Haaland. Apart from that, there’s increasingly little here to trust in FPL. Even De Bruyne was out for this game, and had just one assist in his four post-World Cup starts beforehand. If you’re comparing his FPL potential with Bruno right now, for example, it’s not even close.
Mahrez was the star here, and he’s been on fire since the World Cup. He’s started 4/5 games, grabbing three goals and three assists. He’s also super cheap, at only 7.5, and City have another double in GW 23.
Personally, I vowed not to get involved in Pep Roulette any more after the Foden debacle in the first half of the season. If you don’t have such a vow, however, Mahrez looks like a smart pick right now.
I’m not particularly interested in City defenders. They look super-vulnerable on the break, and only have two cleans in their last seven games across all competitions.
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Spurs are still Spurs.
Kane is great – even if he didn’t play particularly well last night, he was still at the heart of most of the good stuff they did.
And… absolutely nobody else appeals in FPL.
Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Man U
Wilf Zaha somehow remains at 11% ownership, despite not registering a single return in his last six games. Next time he scores though, you can bet the FPL public will go rushing back to him.
Olise’s free kick was absolutely incredible. It was only his second goal of the season though, so we’re not excited about him yet, even if he usually passes the eye test.
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Bruno returned yet again. He’s getting impossible to ignore. We all knew he’d be better with Ronaldo gone, and so it’s proven, having returned in four games in a row. The upcoming fixtures are fine after Arsenal away – Palace home, Leeds away, and Leicester home are all good matchups. He’s also fairly priced at 9.8, delivering vastly better value than either Kev or Mo right now.
Kev owners like myself are kinda stuck with him, since he has another double coming up. I’ve been trying to get them both in, while also holding onto Haaland and Kane, but it’s proving tricky (more on that later).
Rashford finally didn’t score, but is still must-own.
Olise’s late free kick was infuriating for Shaw owners like myself. The Man U defence still looks fine though, and I continue to like him as a long-term pick. Get him in after the Arsenal game, and you can start him for five or six games in a row (depending on whether you think Liverpool will get up for that GW26 game or not).
Spurs 0- 2 Arsenal
This was basically the usual for Spurs. Be rubbish in the first half and go behind, Conte shouts at them at half-time, then play better in the second half. Unfortunately they were playing against the Arsenal defence this time, so were completely unable to mount their usual comeback.
As above – Kane is great, and is a season-long keeper. Nobody else is worth it.
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Arsenal were brilliant here, at both ends of the pitch.
We’ve all got Martinelli already, and we’re not panicking about a couple of blanks. Odegaard has been the hot-hand post-World Cup, with two goals and three assists in four games. He’s only 6.8 too, which is obviously super tempting.
With all that said… I’m still leaning towards Saka. He’s more expensive, at 8.1, but we have plenty of money to spare this year. I watch basically every Arsenal game, and Saka remains the main threat in attack (he was unplayable in the first half against Spurs). Odegaard is a great #10, but a couple of his returns recently have been very lucky indeed.
Basically, Odegaard is fine if you want the cheaper option, but I still prefer Saka.
Elsewhere, the Arsenal defence continues to be great. That’s three consecutive clean sheets in all competitions, and – along with Newcastle – they’re the only trustworthy defence in the Prem. I still like White the most, since he’s the cheapest, but any of Saliba, Gabriel, or even Ramsdale are all fine.
Newcastle 1 – 0 Fulham
As noted, Newcastle are the only other defence you can actually trust this year. They’ve now kept clean sheets in an absurd six of their last seven games. The only exception? Sheffield Wednesday, naturally, in the FA Cup. Josh Windass did (twice) what the likes of Saka, Mitrovic, Vardy et al have failed to do.
You’ve already got Trippier. You should have a second defender already too, with Botman (4.5) being a cheap and reliable option. I’m also completely fine with having Pope in goal. He’s expensive – at 5.4 – but you get actual points with him, unlike Danny Ward. Also, as I keep saying, we have plenty of money to spend this year.
Almiron isn’t rewarding the faith so far, having blanked in three games in a row. I’m holding for now, because we know he’s got a high ceiling and he’s still super cheap. This might be the spot I upgrade to Saka/Odegaard in a couple of weeks, though.
Isak is back, and immediately scored. I’d assume he supplants Wilson sooner rather than later, and he’ll look very nice value indeed when he does, at only 6.6.
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Same old story for Fulham – it’s Mitrovic or nothing.
Unfortunately, Mitro’s penalty woes continued, only in even more comical fashion this time. I’m not panicking yet. He was consistent through the whole first half of the season, and remains great value.
Chelsea 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea continue to be pretty unconvincing, but they got a result and a clean here.
You’re definitely still not looking to transfer any of them in right now. If you’ve got Kepa, as I have, I guess you’re holding onto him. The same goes for Silva, but all the defenders get rotated.
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See above for Palace.
Brentford 2 – 0 Bournemouth
Brentford are great. Since the break they’ve won three and drawn their other game.
Toney continues to be a massive thorn in my side, and that of every other manager scared off by the betting stuff. He’s scored in three of his last four now, and plays Leeds and Southampton next. I guess I’m still too scared to bring him in, but – if you did – fair play to you.
The Brentford defence also looks solid, and those upcoming fixtures are fine. Pinnock is the cheapest nailed starter, at 4.4.
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Bournemouth continue to be FPL-irrelevant.
Everton 1 – 2 Southampton
We don’t need to waste any time on this one. Both teams are rubbish, both could go down, and we don’t want any of them in FPL.
Brighton 3 – 0 Liverpool
Brighton have now won three of their four post-World Cup games (including Everton and Southampton, admittedly). This was a proper demolition job, and now they have a nice run of games against Leeds, Bournemouth, and Palace.
Ferguson is the runaway pick if you want a budget third forward in your FPL team. He’s only 4.5, has returned in three games in a row, and seems to have nailed down a place for himself.
March was the star in the Liverpool game, with two goals and an assist, and also scored against Everton. He’s cheap, at 5.1, but it’s too early to bring him in.
The aforementioned fixtures are also great defensively for Brighton – all three of those could be cleans. Webster is the cheapest reliable starter, at 4.5.
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Liverpool are just awful. Their team is stacked with supposed FPL assets, and I wouldn’t go near a single one of them.
If you’ve still got Salah, bin him. Going to Bruno is the easiest move in the world, and saves a load of money.
Notts Forest 2 – 0 Leicester
Forest are fine in real life. They play defensive, counter-attacking football, and it works.
We’d only really be interested in the defence here, and they do have nice upcoming games against Bournemouth, Leeds, and Fulham. Worrall is a super-cheap way in, at only 4.2.
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Leicester were rubbish, then they were good, and now they’re rubbish again. They’ve lost all four of their post-World Cup games. Ward doesn’t even get you any save points.
Avoid.
Wolves 1 – 0 West Ham
I’m so annoyed that I dropped Bueno. I had to move someone out for Shaw, and chose him over Digne. Digne immediately went off injured after five minutes, and Bueno promptly got a clean.
Wolves do have City next, so you’re not bringing anyone in right now. After that they’ve got a decent run of defensive fixtures though – Liverpool (home), Southampton, Bournemouth, and Fulham – and at least a couple of those are going to be cleans.
I want my Bueno back.
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West Ham are terrible. If they do fire Moyes – which is looking likely – their many attacking options might interest us again. In the meantime, they definitely don’t.
Man U 2 – 1 Man City
See above.
For Man U, Rashford is must-own, Bruno is getting there, and Shaw is a hold.
For City, Haaland is the only must-own.
Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leeds
God, it seems like a long time since this game was played. Some of these gameweeks this season have been ridiculous.
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Aston Villa have been solid. After losing to Liverpool they’ve now beaten Spurs and Leeds, and drawn against Wolves.
Bailey remains a nice budget option, at 4.5. He looked dangerous on the counter here, and took his goal beautifully.
Overall I’m more interested in their defence. Digne is out now, so Moreno (4.5) will take his place. I’d probably rather just have Mings at a mere 4.3, though.
(On a non-FPL note, Boubacar Kamara was easily the standout player here, watching live. He likely won’t be around more than a couple of seasons, but Villa did brilliantly to get him on a free in the first place. He’s a complete midfielder, great at tackling, incredibly composed in possession, and with a nice passing range too.)
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Leeds aren’t particularly interesting to FPL owners.
Rodrigo was a trendy post-World Cup pick, but he’s not getting much service (although he did hit the post in this game). Gnonto is a decent enabler as your third forward, at 5.0, but I’d rather have the cheaper Ferguson from Brighton.
My Gameweek 20
On a personal level, this gameweek was absolutely infuriating.
Digne immediately got injured (and I was there to see it), locking me into one point while my two bench defenders – Botman and White – both got cleans.
Ward vs Kepa felt like a coin-flip to me. The Chelsea defence had been rubbish, and Palace seemed tougher opponents than Forest. Turns out I was wrong! Kepa got his biggest return since GW11, and I got my usual 2-3pts from Ward.
Mitrovic’s penalty mishap got him a cool 0pts, De Bruyne got benched in the second game of his double gameweek, and Shaw’s double gameweek – which I took a -4 for – was ruined by Olise’s ridiculous free kick.
The only thing I’m really happy about this week is that I didn’t triple captain Haaland. I was going back and forth on it last week, as regular readers will know, and ended up deciding against it. He got one goal, but it could’ve been a whole lot worse.
Apart from that, this gameweek stank. Technically I got 2pts over the average score, but this still resulted in another little red arrow for my OR.
As for Gameweek 21, I’m probably rolling my transfer to GW22, when I’ll want a third Arsenal player. A way to get Bruno might open up too (which would probably involve a De Bruyne injury.