Has Fantasy Premier League always been this complicated? I don’t believe so, although perhaps I’m looking back on the good old days with rose-tinted glasses.
Obviously, we’ve always had games moved around for European commitments, and so on. These past few seasons, however, it feels like half of the game has consisted of constantly monitoring Twitter for delayed games, cancelled games, double gameweeks. You can never just… buy a player. You have to check not only whether they already have a double or blank gameweek, but also whether they’re… 42.8% likely to have a double four gameweeks from now.
It feels like this season has been the most complicated of all for that stuff; even more than when entire squads were going down with covid at the eleventh hour. That’s one of the reasons myself and (mostly) James are here, though – to keep track of all this nonsense so that you don’t have to.
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Fortunately, FPL Gameweek 20 isn’t that complicated in itself. We have a few double gameweeks, actually involving decent teams, and a smattering of other solid fixtures to look at.
Main Talking Points
Football never sleeps, and – even if there was only a single Premier League game in the past eight days – we’ve still had cup action galore. Here are the main Fantasy Premier League implications of what’s just happened, and what’s coming up.
Chelsea are Rubbish
When you have seen enough of Chelsea and it's time to return to Atletico Madrid pic.twitter.com/2C7sQoNcYP
— Fledgling (@FPLFledgling) January 13, 2023
It’s not Potter’s fault – all his players keep getting injured (/sent off within 60 minutes of their big-money arrival) – but Chelsea are rubbish at the moment.
Their double gameweek – for which lots of FPL players got Chelsea assets on their post-World Cup wildcard – was a disaster. If you had Koulibaly, congratulations. If you had anyone else, I’m sorry.
They’re a hard avoid right now. I don’t care who they’re playing – just stay well clear.
Transfer Business
We’ve seen a few new arrivals in the Prem, but none of them are really moving the needle in Fantasy Premier League.
Joao Felix himself is an exciting player, but – as noted – Chelsea are rubbish, and he also just got suspended.
I didn’t rate Cunha at Atletico Madrid, and no Wolves striker apart from Jimenez has ever been relevant in FPL.
Weghorst is back in the Prem, and it hasn’t generated the outrage the proposed Arnautovic-to-Man U deal did, presumably because he scored that really cool goal in the World Cup. I’d be very surprised if he was anything more than an impact sub.
In fact, the only FPL relevant signing might have flown under your radar. Alex Moreno just arrived at Villa from Betis. Villa already had Digne at left-back, but this move puts his spot under definite threat. I saw Moreno at the Nou Camp last year, and he was absolutely fantastic, shutting down Dembele and looking dangerous going forward too. He’s only 4.5, and – if Emi Martinez ever finishes partying – Moreno should be part of a very good defence.
Haaland Triple Captaincy?
It feels incredibly early to be using a triple captain. I usually like to leave it until the last few gameweeks, when the fixtures get all congested. Then again, the fixtures are as congested now as they ever are in the spring.
Obviously, Haaland is the choice if you are going to triple captain. You have to use the chip on him at some point, it’ll almost certainly be on him, so why not pull the trigger now?
Well, one reason is that the fixtures aren’t great. I’d back Ten Haag to find a way to slow him down, as Graham Potter just did. Spurs at home sounds scary, but isn’t really, with Spurs conceding for fun (barring the clean they got against Palace last time).
It’s worth noting that City do have one more confirmed double coming up, in gameweek 23. The fixtures then are arguably worse, though – Villa at home (Emery will be super-defensive), then Arsenal away.
I’m leaning towards the Haaland triple captain this week. I don’t like playing it so early, but it just makes too much sense on paper.
FPL Double Gameweek 20 Fixtures
Here are your matchups for FPL Gameweek 20:
As noted, we’ve got a few double gameweeks here.
Man U are in great form. They usually do fine against City at home, and Pep’s already confirmed he’s going to overthink the game. Palace away after that is also fine. Since the World Cup, Palace have only beaten Bournemouth, while losing to Fulham, Spurs, and Southampton. Basically, make sure you have at least one Man U player.
Man City didn’t look great the first time against Chelsea, but smashed them the second time. On paper this isn’t a great double – Man U away, and Spurs at home – but City are City… You’ve already got Haaland, and De Bruyne is also 38% owned. I wouldn’t be desperate to bring in a third player, especially because Ederson is the only nailed starter you’d be interested in.
Spurs also have a double. Arsenal at home is actually fine (the home team basically always wins this derby in recent years), but City away is brutal. You should have Kane already, and – if not – now’s a good time to get him. Apart from Kane, I don’t like any of them, especially with Kulu in and out through injury.
Should I Buy?
Let’s take a quick look at the most transferred-in players, so I can tell you the FPL public are all fools – fools, I tell you! – for getting them.
- Rashford (7.0) – Yes, 100%. He’s in ridiculous form, is super cheap for what he delivers, and has a double gameweek
- Shaw (5.1) – Slightly trickier. I do prefer him over Cancelo, if you’ve still got him (James and I bailed a couple of weeks ago). Shaw has returned in three consecutive games, always plays 90mins, and could easily get a clean against Palace. I wouldn’t hit him in, but he’s a fine 1:1 transfer
- Kane (11.6) – Yes. He’s incredibly consistent, has a double gameweek now, and is a season-keeper thereafter
- Mbeumo (5.9) – Meh. I get that he’s a budget enabler who starts every game, and he has great fixtures coming up (Bournemouth, Leeds, Southampton). I just prefer the consistency of a Mitrovic, or even the (theoretical) upside of Martial
- Pope (5.4) – I don’t hate it. It’s accepted FPL wisdom that you shouldn’t waste a transfer on a goalkeeper… but Pope’s been the best keeper by a mile, has a ridiculous four clean sheets in a row, and now has great fixtures against Fulham, Palace, West Ham, and Bournemouth
- Mahrez (7.5) – He’s returned in three Premier League games in a row, and was great in the FA Cup mid-week. But, no… I just can’t be bothered with Pep Roulette any more. Mahrez can be in amazing form – as he is right now – and still easily be benched in the very next game (Also see: Foden, Phil)
Should I Sell?
Let’s cast our collective beady eye down the list of most-binned players this week, and see whether you should follow the wisdom of the crowd.
- Trossard (6.8) – Yes. Fun while it lasted, and it might happen again, but a month hanging out with Eden Hazard seems to have destroyed his form
- Salah (12.9) – Ugh. I was terrified of not owning him after the World Cup, and he immediately got two returns against Villa. Since then he’s blanked twice, and Liverpool look generally poor. His upcoming fixtures are so-so (Brighton, Chelsea, Wolves). I’d move him to De Bruyne for the double gameweek, or Kane in general. I don’t hate holding him, though – he’ll still get returns, just not to the usual Mo levels
- Cancelo (7.2) – Yes. I moved on a couple of gameweeks ago, and feel great about it. He looked poor against Chelsea in the league, and is clearly in Pep’s bad books. Get Shaw, or another Newcastle defender, instead
- Mitrovic (7.2) – No. The suspension was annoying but inevitable, and at least he scored in the first game. Newcastle away next is a nasty fixture, but I’d hold him anyway. He’s been consistent all season, remains excellent value, and I still feel great about a Haaland / Kane / Mitro front line
- Darwin (8.9) – Double-Ugh. Apparently he’s injured, and will probably miss the upcoming game, so this feels like it’s the perfect time to let him go. He’ll come good at some point, but he’s too frustrating to own in the meantime
- Mount (7.6) – Yes. It made sense to have him for the double gameweek, but – as noted – Chelsea are a mess right now. There are plenty of comparably-priced midfielders I prefer (Saka, Martinelli, Almiron, Rashford, Rodrigo, etc.)
My Team
Here’s my team heading into Gameweek 20:
The only transfer I’ve made so far is Kulusevski to Rashford. Kulu seemed like a good shout, coming out of the World Cup. I wish I’d just kept Saka, but obviously I couldn’t foresee the Kulu injury.
I’m tempted to get Shaw, for a -4. The problem is that I already like my defensive matchups. It’s even tempting to bring Botman in for a Newcastle double-up, and bench Martinelli or Mitrovic for their tough games. Shaw has far higher upside than Bueno or Digne, but will he get at least 4pts more than them?
Looking ahead, Bueno’s fixtures do get pretty bad soon, and neither Ben White nor Botman has a great game next week…
Ah, what the hell, I’m doing. Shaw’s in! I’ve got plenty of money in the bank anyway, and he’ll almost certainly make up – and exceed – the -4 over the next few weeks.
Goalkeeper is a tricky choice this week. Basically because both of my keepers are rubbish. It’s tempting to just go and get Ederson, but I’m not taking a -8 when my team has no obvious holes.
Triple captaincy – as discussed earlier – is the only other consideration. By nature I’m leaning against it, as I prefer to hold my chips for longer, but it does make sense to drop it on Haaland this week. I need a few hours to turn it over in my head… but I’ll probably do it.